Super hot in Pittsburg today with the wind blowing out hard above 12 mph. I suspect the pitchers are in a for a tough one but it's hard not to like there numbers right now. Probably a better pass than over bet.
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At some point Moore is gonna stop nibbling and go on a roll. His swinging strike rates are still great. How much can we trust this recent WSox surge in offense,they are a decidedly mediocre offensive team. Sale has been phenomenal, how will he hold up as the innings pile up, how will that lanky string bean handle the hot summer, will he wilt? This game has 3-2 written all over it, just the youth factor that presents that volatility that scares me a bit.
Braves lineup really lacks presence when Chipper is out. Even if McCann is back today, gotta think a hazy, hot and humid day is not the greatest recipe coming off the flu. On that note I wonder how the beefy Lynn's stamina will hold up in this type of weather. Think they may try and get Beltran a day off here too, he's played in at least 10 straight days in a row. Hanson's velocity dip worries me some but he still misses enough bats to be effective.
Edit: Forgot that Freeman will probably be out, or limited due to his eye issues.Last edited by Redscot; 05-28-12, 08:28 AM.Comment -
you read my mind, i got on a yankees -1.0 @ +184 as soon as the card came out a few hours ago. my 'prop' options have now gone down too though. the yankees ML has come in from +135 to +122 on my site which is interesting. i get the feeling when the alternative RL numbers come out we might get a number closer to +200 than +220.
edit: the reds have come in from -101 to -105 too, i guess the high rollers are waking upComment -
Play #5
Diamondbacks -1RL (+108) 1x (Locked)
This one is moving fast and furious and is moving up as I type. I thought there would be some buy back once it hit -118 or -120 but apparently not. I am going to pull the trigger now knowing that SF might get some money later this morning after I leave. I expect Zito to struggle and Cahill to flourish. The wind is blowing straight out at 20 mph and AZ should be ready to hit. I am rolling with AZ on the -1RL for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
Got a question for ya LTA. You have consciously implemented the -1 R/L more into your capping this season, thus far with good results, in an attempt to open up the card more and create value on high chalk favorites. Wouldn't a logical extension of this be an attempt to utilize the +1 R/L in certain situations, ie. low totals where you anticipate a pitchers duel. Curious to here your thoughts on this, and why, perhaps there is a distinction in the value created by the -1 RL as compared to the +1 RL.
P.S. if any one else has thoughts on this matter feel free to chime in.Comment -
Wandy/Nicasio opened at 9 1/2 and got bought down with the quickness.Comment -
Interesting question, I feel like i usually use the -1 on a team that i think is going to win, but i use it mainly as a tool to diminish the juice on a -140 and above favorite. I really have never considered using it for a dog. I much prefer the +1.5 line on a dog when i feel they are going to play the favorite close. For example today I like Seattle +1.5 (-115) because i think it will be a close game. Long story short i like the -1 for a fave, and a +1.5 for a dog. Just my thoughts.Got a question for ya LTA. You have consciously implemented the -1 R/L more into your capping this season, thus far with good results, in an attempt to open up the card more and create value on high chalk favorites. Wouldn't a logical extension of this be an attempt to utilize the +1 R/L in certain situations, ie. low totals where you anticipate a pitchers duel. Curious to here your thoughts on this, and why, perhaps there is a distinction in the value created by the -1 RL as compared to the +1 RL.
P.S. if any one else has thoughts on this matter feel free to chime in.Comment -
I'm not a fan of +1RL or +1.5RL. If I like a dog, I will play it for plus money on the ML as opposed to making them more expensive and eat the juice on the +1RL or +1.5 RL. That's just a personal position though and not to intimate that playing the +1RL or +1.5 RL cannot be profitable. Just not my thing.Got a question for ya LTA. You have consciously implemented the -1 R/L more into your capping this season, thus far with good results, in an attempt to open up the card more and create value on high chalk favorites. Wouldn't a logical extension of this be an attempt to utilize the +1 R/L in certain situations, ie. low totals where you anticipate a pitchers duel. Curious to here your thoughts on this, and why, perhaps there is a distinction in the value created by the -1 RL as compared to the +1 RL.
P.S. if any one else has thoughts on this matter feel free to chime in.Comment -
+1.5 RL's are horribly undervalued in my opinion. From my experience I'll often see -1.5 RL's ranging from +100 upwards, on the other end of the spectrum I often see the odds for +1.5 RL's in the -150 to -170 range, some even as far as -200.Got a question for ya LTA. You have consciously implemented the -1 R/L more into your capping this season, thus far with good results, in an attempt to open up the card more and create value on high chalk favorites. Wouldn't a logical extension of this be an attempt to utilize the +1 R/L in certain situations, ie. low totals where you anticipate a pitchers duel. Curious to here your thoughts on this, and why, perhaps there is a distinction in the value created by the -1 RL as compared to the +1 RL.
P.S. if any one else has thoughts on this matter feel free to chime in.
Teams on average would probably only lose about 20 games by 1 run in a season? If thats the case, without running any calculations on it, I'd say you'd be reap more profit long term picking your spots on the ML with better odds than a +1.5 RL at rubbish odds like -170.
edit: in regards to our posts above, my sportsbook is now offering yankees -1.5 @ +195.
edit again: made a typo i meant to say overvalued not undervaluedLast edited by taxe91; 05-28-12, 09:31 AM.Comment -
Most of the time i hit both the +1.5 rl
and the ml, just my preference I am doing that
today in the Seattle game. I just didn't include that
in my original response, since i didn't feel it was relevant
to the question.Comment -
Anyone going to play the 12.5 under in the Padres/Cubs game
Comment -
Dollis is good for 3 runs. Right?Comment -
I did....I dont care if its 40mph str8 out....no way these 2 offenses should be 12.5!Comment -
i use the +1 RL every once in awhile, not nearly as much as -1 RL. i tend to use it for any away team and where i feel that the home team's pen is shaky.Comment -
Glad i got Cubs/Pads at 12.5 it seems it's at 13 at most
shops.Comment -
Play #7
White Sox/Devil Rays under (7.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)
I may also play the White Sox on the ML as I think these two plays are correlated, but Matt Moore has the unfamiliarity factor working for him and the Sox often struggle against pitchers they have not faced before, especially when those pitchers are lefties. Both pitchers have "filthy" stuff and the game is in the Trop which always helps an under. I have this game set at 6.6 and will roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
how can that be a 13... Padres are ranked bottom 5 batting against lefties and Cubs are bottom 5 against righties
. This is too high
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as I wtrite this the over is getting HAMMERED LOL definitely no play for meComment -
LTA...how much you put into playing miami and STL based on wash and atl played till 11 last night.....flew to their new destinations.....got in around 3am and have to be at the ballpark at 10am for a 1pm start?Comment -
Lta, great looking card, happy memorial day, and lets pound
the books today.
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Lta i can get Seattle Rl at +115 and ml at +220 , my local is always moving lines 20 to 30 cents on favorites ,teams like Texas, and NY . Im thinking about just taking the oppisite of every line he moves. Do you believe this will be profitable ? Thank you for your plays and write upsComment
, wow. I don't have that option up yet, but if I can get something in that range I may roll up a -1 R/L. Hughes is Hughes, but his velocity is back this year and he has been pitching better than his numbers reflect.
