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sox/rays isnt gonna come close to the 10 unfortunately. good luck on the rest of your plays!Comment -
Doesn't make sense game cast says field choice no buddy out... friggin what the reds pitcher field the ball and choose to do nothing with it...Comment -
ebears reds game is becoming a heart attackComment -
You got to love what MR dolis has done again. LTA do yourself a favor and disregard any line you see on the cubs until all star break. PatheticComment -
i was waiting for your 4pm post. I ran with the angels.Comment -
The good: You were in a pool
that's +ev. The bad: missed the play...such is life,...tack on run... pen could have blown this one up easily. I will say though, as I mentioned earlier in the week, the Angels were an absolute money train last few games, getting ridiculous lines (IMO) they did not deserve. I think they will start getting priced closer to their true value soon....On the late night game with ya bro, and haven't checked into NBA yet to see if you have anything cooking there. 
Last edited by Redscot; 05-27-12, 05:55 PM.Comment -
You know it...gotta beat the heat! Good luck tonight buddy...I'm playing the over in NBA. Might go even bigger on the Braves under tonight....really like this play just trying to see if the hot weather will kill us like some other unders.The good: You were in a pool that's +ev. The bad: missed the play...such is life,...tack on run... pen could have blown this one up easily. I will say though, as I mentioned earlier in the week, the Angels were an absolute money train last few games, getting ridiculous lines (IMO) they did not deserve. I think they will start getting priced closer to their true value soon....On the late night game with ya bro, and haven't checked into NBA yet to see if you have anything cooking there. Last edited by Love The Action; 05-27-12, 06:44 PM.Comment -
LTA, do you maybe know what it means when Pinny disable additional total lines from drop down menu. For example I wanted to bet Washington/Atlanta Under 7, but there is just Under 6.5 available at this moment.
Normally, they would offer all range of totals to choose, from Under 6 to Under 8.Comment -
LTA I'm a little surprised you took SD today
That team's road record is just absolutely putrid and the mets are clearly undervalued by the books. I thought that NY was one of the best plays today considering their recent hot streak and how good Dickey has been coupled with San Diego's atrocious road performances
The cubs/pirates under was a good play, I'm shocked how poorly Garza pitched and I'm surprised you didn't win that.Comment -
Pretty sure he mentioned why a few times.Comment -
******* gas can bullpenComment -
Bullpens have been a killer this year.Comment -
Matt Kemp returns Tuesday for the Dodgers. Kemp had an RBI single and a 2 run HR tonight for AAA Albuquerque in rehab start.Comment -
MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/27/2012 Recap
1 - 4 = -5.1x
MLB 2012 Regular Season
116 - 109 - 15 = +3.01x
What a disappointing end to what was set up to be a huge week. Yesterday night's game had the under feel until old man Livan Hernandez fell apart in relief. That is part of baseball and I took that under with the knowledge that he might pitch. Although, his solid numbers in relief so far told me he would pitch much, much better if called upon. Nevertheless, despite last night's disappointment, we go from the red to the black this week and we have no intentions of looking back. It's a new week and time to go on a sustained hot streak. Good luck.Comment -
Yeah, they have really hurt us over the last month but will round into form. As I mentioned the other day, this is an adjustment period for scoring in baseball. A lot of the 7's you have been seeing will now open at 7.5 instead so on and so forth.
The heat has a lot to do with the recent high scoring. Even though from a physics standpoint, a baseball travels further in colder weather, when it's hot that affects the pitcher more and forces them to labor and get tired out more quickly which in turn forces earlier bullpen action who are also affected by the heat.
Now that the heat has hit, we need to really start paying attention to day games when it's hot out. With that said, yesterday night's game was not affected by the heat, just an ineffective old fat man named Livan Hernandez
Good luck tonight.
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Yeah, they have really hurt us over the last month but will round into form. As I mentioned the other day, this is an adjustment period for scoring in baseball. A lot of the 7's you have been seeing will now open at 7.5 instead so on and so forth.
The heat has a lot to do with the recent high scoring. Even though from a physics standpoint, a baseball travels further in colder weather, when it's hot that affects the pitcher more and forces them to labor and get tired out more quickly which in turn forces earlier bullpen action who are also affected by the heat.
Now that the heat has hit, we need to really start paying attention to day games when it's hot out. With that said, yesterday night's game was not affected by the heat, just an ineffective old fat man named Livan Hernandez
Good luck tonight.
No doubt a disappointing end to the week, but it was a profitable week nonetheless
. I was trying to find some stats for avg. runs scored by month in MLB, but in my limited time yesterday couldn't come up with anything worthwhile. It isn't a holiday down here, but it is for ME. I'm taking the day off and if I have to BBQ all by myself and watch some baseball solo, then so be it! Enjoy the day fellas and let's take a moment to honor those that have served and those who continue to serve to protect you and yours.
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Happy Memorial Day to all and please remember the reason we honor this holiday is to honor the brave men and women of U.S. Armed Forces. The true heros....Comment -
Sweet! Enjoy my friend. Hopefully we can make it a profitable day. Good luck
No doubt a disappointing end to the week, but it was a profitable week nonetheless. I was trying to find some stats for avg. runs scored by month in MLB, but in my limited time yesterday couldn't come up with anything worthwhile. It isn't a holiday down here, but it is for ME. I'm taking the day off and if I have to BBQ all by myself and watch some baseball solo, then so be it! Enjoy the day fellas and let's take a moment to honor those that have served and those who continue to serve to protect you and yours.
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MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/28/2012
Play #1
Phillies -1RL (+101) 1x (Locked)
Good luck.Comment -
No time for writeups with the lines moving but will discuss plays later if you like before I leave for the day. Good luck.Comment -
Certainly is intriguing. I am generally not big on pitchers "Getting it" after they have been around a few years, in McDonald's case it seems to be adding the Slider to his repertoire that has made a big difference for him this year. We'll have to see if he can maintain this success as the book gets out on him and guys see his new approach a few times.
Really like the Phillies play LTA, had my eye on that one. Hamels has been lights out.
Total in Boston seems high, but maybe better at 9 than the heavy juice I am seeing on the 9 1/2 atm.
Couple of LHP young guns going at it in Tampa this afternoon. Probably to volatile for me to consider under there. Who has produced the most runs over the last 2 weeks in MLB.......yup, the WSox.
I have been making some money on the Angels of late, but today is a case where I actually like the value the Yanks offer......
Look forward to the rest of your plays LTA
Oh, and on your earlier theme, it does appear we will have some hot humid weather in a number of venues today.Comment -
Play #2
Tigers/Red Sox under (9.5)(-120) 1x and under (9)(+110) 1x (Locked)
One of my books has the hook and the other is offering plus odds at 9. I am going to lay 1x at each to reduce the overall juice and make this a 2x play with the risk of pushing 1x at 9. Doubront is pitching very, very, well this season in a tough division with great hitters as evidenced by his dominate 24% K%, 1.3 GB/FB and a tERA, FIP, xFIP and SIERA all under 3.6. Those are great numbers, plus he has the unfamiliarity factor working for him as he has never faced Detroit. Fister is consistent and is having another solid season with a 2.8 GB/FB and SIERA at 3.2. He has a great history against Boston with a lifetime OPS of .643 and BAA of .209. It's cool in Boston in the mid 70's and the wind will be blowing in from center at 9 mph. Not sure about the ump, but my model has this game set at 7.8 and it's going to take a final of 10 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 2x. Good luck.
Play #3
Nationals/Marlins under (7.5) 1x (Locked)
Getting a great number here considering Pinny has not moved to 7.5 yet and is juicing the over 7 at -130. I think they probably will move based on all the recent over steam, but I will take my chances on this game. I was scared off a couple of unders that cashed yesterday and I don't want to do the same today. It's supposed to be mid 80's today in Miami and a bit overcast, so hopefully it's not too hot for Zambrano and Zimmerman on the mound. Both guys are having solid seasons although I could see a bit of regression for Zambrano. However, I like him today because he has really increased the use of his sinker which led to a solid 1.7 GB/FB and that is not a pitch against which the majority of Nationals' hitters excel. Zimmerman is a consistent pitcher who already has a 1.1 WAR (Zambrano at 0.8). Although I put almost no stock in situational factors in MLB, Washington is playing a day game after a night game and they might want to get out of there just a bit quicker than normal for whatever that is worth. The wind is blowing in from right at 13 mph and I have this game set at 6.28. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.
Play #4
Royals/Indians over (9)(-115) 1x (Locked)
Its hot and steamy in Cleveland today with the wind blowing out at 10 mph. Adcock is pitching for the first time in 8 days and Tomlin is coming off the disabled list, which, as you know, is a spot I like to fade. This play is hurt by the fact that Hafner and Cabrera will not play today for Cleveland, but they are a scrappy little offense that has put up decent numbers. I expect a solid outting from both offenses considering both are top 10 offenses against righties in a number of significant advanced categories. I have this game set at 10.3 and would not be surprised to see this one close at 9.5. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
I'll tell you whats intriguing about that Yanks game Red, Yankees -1.5 is @ +220. when was the last time we saw the most overvalued team in baseball with a RL like that?
Weaver is a good, if not elite, pitcher but he has regression written all over himComment -
I lean to both the White Sox and the under in that game. Still trying to decide whether the White Sox's troubles against lefties will continue, despite Moore's inconsistency. The problem is that we all know Moore has elite "stuff" but has not put it all together. His is the kind of stuff that can baffle Chicago's hitters though, that's what makes this a tough call. If this total were at a juiced up 8 or with plus money at 7.5, I would have a much harder time not playing the under. I think it begs the question why the books are so scared of under money here opening at a juiced up 7.5.Certainly is intriguing. I am generally not big on pitchers "Getting it" after they have been around a few years, in McDonald's case it seems to be adding the Slider to his repertoire that has made a big difference for him this year. We'll have to see if he can maintain this success as the book gets out on him and guys see his new approach a few times.
Really like the Phillies play LTA, had my eye on that one. Hamels has been lights out.
Total in Boston seems high, but maybe better at 9 than the heavy juice I am seeing on the 9 1/2 atm.
Couple of LHP young guns going at it in Tampa this afternoon. Probably to volatile for me to consider under there. Who has produced the most runs over the last 2 weeks in MLB.......yup, the WSox.
I have been making some money on the Angels of late, but today is a case where I actually like the value the Yanks offer......
Look forward to the rest of your plays LTA
Oh, and on your earlier theme, it does appear we will have some hot humid weather in a number of venues today.
Looking at the Cardinals as well right now. Thoughts? Can Hanson shut them down today and stop the skid?
McDonald has great numbers this season and if they flip flop to plus money, I may have to take a harder look at the Pirates today.Comment -
He is one of the few pitchers that can sustain a low BABIP having a lifetime number of .273. However, I agree it will be tough for him to keep his current .225 number and will regress slightly. However, I don't forsee any significant regression. His numbers are consistent with his career averages right now. This is an interesting game tonight with both the total and side. Under money hit early and that big plus number on the Yanks is inviting. Tough to go against a hot team though....Comment -
Is Toronto's roof open today? Steaming over all of a sudden....Comment
, wow. I don't have that option up yet, but if I can get something in that range I may roll up a -1 R/L. Hughes is Hughes, but his velocity is back this year and he has been pitching better than his numbers reflect.