LTA's MLB Plays

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/17/11

Play #1

Giants ML (+130) 1.5x (Locked)

Jurrjens is coming off the DL for a knee injury. I always tend to fade pitchers coming off the DL and especially when I can get Cain at +130. I have the Giants at +120 in this one, despite their recent struggles. Both Cain and Jurrjens are in the top echelon of NL pitchers, but a healthy Cain versus a rusty Jurrjens gives us the advantage. Situationally, this is a must-win for the Giants. They are slipping in the standings and need a win here. I think there are enough factors to roll with the Giants and I am doing just that for 1.5x. GL.

Play #2

LAD/Brewers under (7.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

Eavoldi is one of the top Dodgers' prospects and Greinke's numbers point to dominance in the 2h of the season. Greinke is 14-3 o/u and I predict a run of unders for Greinke as the playoff races heat up. I generally hate taking unders in Brewers, but they have cashed both games of this series so far. Perhaps I am late to the under party, but I have to roll that way with Eavoldi having the advantage of the Brewers unfamiliarity with him. Guccione is the ump who seems to have an over lean, but that is really just circumstance when you look deeper. He has a 63.1% strike rate (I like anywhere over 63%) and his previous season do not show an over tendency. I like the under here and am rolling that way for 1x. GL.


Play #3

Reds -1RL (-120) 1x (Locked)

Reds kill lefties and have a huge advantage in starting pitchers today. GL.

Play #4

Blue Jays -1RL (-120) 1x (Locked)

Blue Jays have superior pitching and offense today. GL.

Play #5

Padres -1RL (-110) 1x (Locked)

[Love The Action]

All of these rl plays are huge pitching mismatches. I regrettably held off playing the rays and astros because I liked the padres, reds, blue jays and yanks better so I hope these don't burn me.

Final lean is the yankees and I will make that decision shortly.

Red - I feel your pain on that oakland play my friend. The gambling gods owe us big time. Good luck tonight!

[Redscot]

All of these rl plays are huge pitching mismatches. I regrettably held off playing the rays and astros because I liked the padres, reds, blue jays and yanks better so I hope these don't burn me.

Final lean is the yankees and I will make that decision shortly.

Red - I feel your pain on that oakland play my friend. The gambling gods owe us big time. Good luck tonight!

Same to you my man!

Just on a baseball note, I LOVE this kid Salvador Perez in K.C. 21 year old take charge defensive catcher who has some serious swag, not afraid to be aggressive at the position throwing behind runners etc. Minors numbers suggest his stick should be fine, don't know if he'll hit enough yet to stick.

[GoggsViggs]

LTA, like that giants angle and play. gL bro.

On the Yankees here.

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/17/11

Play #1

Giants ML (+130) 1.5x (Locked)

Jurrjens is coming off the DL for a knee injury. I always tend to fade pitchers coming off the DL and especially when I can get Cain at +130. I have the Giants at +120 in this one, despite their recent struggles. Both Cain and Jurrjens are in the top echelon of NL pitchers, but a healthy Cain versus a rusty Jurrjens gives us the advantage. Situationally, this is a must-win for the Giants. They are slipping in the standings and need a win here. I think there are enough factors to roll with the Giants and I am doing just that for 1.5x. GL.

Play #2

LAD/Brewers under (7.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

Eavoldi is one of the top Dodgers' prospects and Greinke's numbers point to dominance in the 2h of the season. Greinke is 14-3 o/u and I predict a run of unders for Greinke as the playoff races heat up. I generally hate taking unders in Brewers, but they have cashed both games of this series so far. Perhaps I am late to the under party, but I have to roll that way with Eavoldi having the advantage of the Brewers unfamiliarity with him. Guccione is the ump who seems to have an over lean, but that is really just circumstance when you look deeper. He has a 63.1% strike rate (I like anywhere over 63%) and his previous season do not show an over tendency. I like the under here and am rolling that way for 1x. GL.


Play #3

Reds -1RL (-120) 1x (Locked)

Reds kill lefties and have a huge advantage in starting pitchers today. GL.

Play #4

Blue Jays -1RL (-120) 1x (Locked)

Blue Jays have superior pitching and offense today. GL.

Play #5

Padres -1RL (-110) 1x (Locked)

Play #6

Yankees -1RL (-141) 1x (Locked)

Card is final. Ton of juice today, so we have some risk but I like all these plays and feel they are solid based on superior pitching and offense for the teams we are backing. Good luck to everyone on their plays tonight. I have to work late tonight but will check in a little later.

[Love The Action]

And...another 9th inning collapse with Cincy. This is getting fuking unreal. Has anyone else had such unlucky streak of late inning collapses on otherwise winning plays? This has cost me like over 14x in 9 days of winners.

[alamo]

Big double play in Cincy to get the push guys. Bases were loaded and just 1 out ! We will take that as it looked like it was another loss. Hopefully thats the turning point !

[alamo]

And...another 9th inning collapse with Cincy. This is getting fuking unreal. Has anyone else had such unlucky streak of late inning collapses on otherwise winning plays? This has cost me like over 14x in 9 days of winners.

LTA good news - Ramos grounded into double play so Cincy held on for the win. I like you thought we were fupped !

[Love The Action]

Big double play in Cincy to get the push guys. Bases were loaded and just 1 out ! We will take that as it looked like it was another loss. Hopefully thats the turning point !

Hopefully...still should have been a win leading 2-0 going into the bottom of the ninth. Classic mismanagement of a pitching staff by Dusty Baker, who is one of the worst in the leagues at handling pitchers. Why would you let Cueto go out there in the ninth against Zimmerman who has hit him in the past. Let the closers do their job Dusty. Plus, the extra inning wasn't needed for his best pitcher who he should be trying to get rest down the stretch. Man, Dusty is horrible at managing a pitching staff. But a push is better than a loss.

Really need the Giants to close it out, continued limited scoring in Milwaukee, the Yanks to make a comeback and Toronto to roll.

[alamo]

Hopefully...still should have been a win leading 2-0 going into the bottom of the ninth. Classic mismanagement of a pitching staff by Dusty Baker, who is one of the worst in the leagues at handling pitchers. Why would you let Cueto go out there in the ninth against Zimmerman who has hit him in the past. Let the closers do their job Dusty. Plus, the extra inning wasn't needed for his best pitcher who he should be trying to get rest down the stretch. Man, Dusty is horrible at managing a pitching staff. But a push is better than a loss. Really need the Giants to close it out, continued limited scoring in Milwaukee, the Yanks to make a comeback and Toronto to roll.

I agree, Dusty Baker would fup up a cup of coffee

Giants close the game out so cash that boys ! Now lets get on this roll with the rest of the games!

[Ca$hfloW]

Everything looking good as usual, another good day

[Love The Action]

Just saw the replay of the Yankees game on espn...can't believe they called that a home run. That literally cost us the game when you factor in the Yanks late inning run.

[Love The Action]

MLB Recap 8/17/11

3 - 2 = +1.65x

MLB Season 2011

345 - 310 = +31.78x

Could have had a huge night if not for Dusty Baker and his mismanagement of his pitching staff and the home run that wasn't in the Yankees game. But we move forward with a positive night and look to make it another on Thursday. GL.

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/18/11

Play #1

Boston/KC under (8.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Diamondbacks ML (+140) 1x (Locked)

Writeups to come tomorrow morning....good luck!

[borednaz]

Hey LTA can you spare some advice on how to straight bet

[MrXYZ]

I was on your first 2 plays & cashed them, thanks LTA for your hard work & hope you get another streak going soon.

[Redscot]

And...another 9th inning collapse with Cincy. This is getting fuking unreal. Has anyone else had such unlucky streak of late inning collapses on otherwise winning plays? This has cost me like over 14x in 9 days of winners.

Well at least it wasn't the bullpen, baby steps my man, baby steps. Truly unbelievable though, craziest last game stretch I have ever had.

S.D. game went exactly opposite of what I expected from the starters, at least I got half of it back on the over. Speaking of overs between Oak and S.D Over the last 40 combined games, 6 unders! Wowza.

Positive night is a good thing, gotta feel something strong coming soon with the string of late bad beats.

Thanks as always for your efforts LTA.

[Love The Action]

Hey LTA can you spare some advice on how to straight bet

Sure...but you'll have to narrow your question down a little as there are a lot of aspects to flat betting (I don't think you mean straight betting) as opposed to a labby, martingale etc.

You have to factor in when and how to continually increase your unit size. In addition, you need to be able to calculate your edge by projecting your chances at winning a particular play and then converting that into a fair line. I like to vary my bets based on strength of edge. Therefore, if I have a total at 6 and the market is at 8, I am going to put a larger bet on that play than if the market was at 7.

There are books and articles all over the web on this stuff and different betting systems in general. Check out a book like Conquering Risk and go through the Handicapper Think Tank. Look at stuff like the Kelly Criterion for setting an optimal bet size and then thinking about adjusting from there. This is a pretty expansive topic my man, so let me know exactly what you were thinking about and I can probably help you out later tonight when I get home from work.

Good luck on your plays

[Love The Action]

I was on your first 2 plays & cashed them, thanks LTA for your hard work & hope you get another streak going soon.

[Love The Action]

Well at least it wasn't the bullpen, baby steps my man, baby steps. Truly unbelievable though, craziest last game stretch I have ever had.

S.D. game went exactly opposite of what I expected from the starters, at least I got half of it back on the over. Speaking of overs between Oak and S.D Over the last 40 combined games, 6 unders! Wowza.

Positive night is a good thing, gotta feel something strong coming soon with the string of late bad beats.

Thanks as always for your efforts LTA.

Yeah, it's crazy about the over streaks by Oakland and SD. I've cashed a few, but if you were just blindly betting overs on those teams since the all star break you would have made a killing. However, the problem, is that both offenses statistically still suck and I'm not one to blindly bet anything. Oh well.....

I was surprised to see your Muts take it to SD yesterday, but I guess that's why they play the games. I have lost more money on Padres games than any other team. The problem is that I love their starting pitchers but hate their offense. When they pitch, they don't hit and when they hit they don't pitch. Classic dilemma of a horse crap team.

I'm a positive guy in general, but I look at all the profit we have lost over the last week or so to bad beats and it pisses me off. We all say it evens out, but I'm waiting for evidence of that. I have not one a single ML bet in the 9th inning, but have lost more than 10 this season. It's insane. Variance should be on my side for the last part of the season...I hope.

Good luck today Red! Hope you kill it

[Ca$hfloW]

Love the diamondback pick lta, I'll be on it with you. Lets cash it

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/18/11

Play #1

Boston/KC under (8.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

Even though I think Beckett regresses throughout this last part of the season, I think he keeps the Royals in check today limiting them to no more than a couple runs through 7 innings. As we all know, Beckett's numbers have been dominate all year. His K% is around 22%, WHIP under 1, BAA under .200 and FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA all in the 3.3 to 3.5 range. Even though his BABIP is way low at .233 and his LOB% way high over 83%, his ability to get key strikeouts shows that, even though he is due to regress, perhaps that regression may not be so dramatic. Yes, he gave up 5 runs in his last outting, however, based on this season, whenever he has given up 3 or more runs, he bounces back by allowing less than 3 earned runs in his next game. A small sample size for sure, yet it shows Beckett's short term tendencies and perhaps he is using his mind more than his physical tools for the first time in his career. On the other side, Hochevar has pitched well of late and has the ability to keep the ball on the ground. With Ortiz out, the Boston offense has missed his punch and has been struggling coming into this one. Both teams home/away splits show the under has hit more often than not when Boston is on the road and when KC is at home. I have this one set at 7.8 and it's going to take a final score of 9 to beat me, so I think we have enough value here to pull the trigger on the under. I think this one ends up with a 5-2 type game and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. GL.

Play #2

Diamondbacks ML (+140) 1x (Locked)

Worley has posted solid numbers, but I think you see this line stay steady at +140 or even drop a bit as the day goes on. I have a fair line of +129 for this one, so we are getting over 10 cents of "value" here. I am not one to fade the Phillies this season, especially since the Pence trade. However, even though Worley has never faced the Diamondbacks heading into this game which gives him a solid advantage, I think the D-backs steal this series and knock Worley around a bit today. Worley's advanced splits show he has already started to regress a bit as his numbers have gotten worse from June to July and from July to August. Plus, the guy is rocking a BABIP around .200 with a LOB over 80% when pitching in Philly, so I think those numbers start to really regress. On the other side, Kennedy has been dominate winning 7 games in a row and posting season numbers that support that streak with a K% over 20%, WHIP at 1.1 and FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA all in the 3.5 range. Plus, over a very small sample size of 59 AB's, Kennedy has just dominated the Philly lineup holding them to a BAA of .153 and OPS of .452. We are getting over 10 cents of "value" with Kennedy on the mound today, so I see no reason not to take a chance with the D-backs at such a good price. Every year, there are one or two teams who overachieve their way into the playoffs. The D-backs have made a believer out of me after doubting them because of the loss of Drew. I thought that would really hurt their offense and faded them right after his injury. That was a mistake and I lost a few units because of it. I'm not saying the D-backs will win the world series, however, they are shaping up to be this year's "little engine that could" just like the 2010 Giants, 2003 Marlins, 2005 White Sox and 2008 Cardinals or any of the teams in the past who overcame perceived weaknesses, got hot late in the season and were able find playoff success. I think the D-backs have momentum coming into this game. Yes, they ended up losing what was a close game until the late innings, but they did beat Doc in Philly in the first game of the series which must have given them a confidence boost. I don't think Kennedy and the D-backs are intimidated at all by the Phillies and I think they have the clear edge in starting pitching today. In addition, the D-backs actually have an offense that rates a bit better than Philly, with a slightly better bullpen and defense which is tops in the league as opposed to Philly who rates in the bottom third of the league in that category. Let's see where the line movement takes us today, but I expect the D-backs price to stay steady or for a drop. I don't expect a run on the Phillies, so I locked in the D-backs early for 1x. GL.

Here are my thoughts on the first two games. I will not have as big a card as yesterday, but will likely have a few more plays. Good luck to everyone today!

[Redscot]

- "little engine that could"

- don't think Kennedy and the D-backs are intimidated at all by the Phillies

Nice write up's as always LTA. Gotta think Kirk Gibson and his staff have a lot to do with the make up of this Zona team.

[funnyman]

Your breaks will come, LTA. Stay positive. Like the plays today.

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/18/11

Play #1

Boston/KC under (8.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

Even though I think Beckett regresses throughout this last part of the season, I think he keeps the Royals in check today limiting them to no more than a couple runs through 7 innings. As we all know, Beckett's numbers have been dominate all year. His K% is around 22%, WHIP under 1, BAA under .200 and FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA all in the 3.3 to 3.5 range. Even though his BABIP is way low at .233 and his LOB% way high over 83%, his ability to get key strikeouts shows that, even though he is due to regress, perhaps that regression may not be so dramatic. Yes, he gave up 5 runs in his last outting, however, based on this season, whenever he has given up 3 or more runs, he bounces back by allowing less than 3 earned runs in his next game. A small sample size for sure, yet it shows Beckett's short term tendencies and perhaps he is using his mind more than his physical tools for the first time in his career. On the other side, Hochevar has pitched well of late and has the ability to keep the ball on the ground. With Ortiz out, the Boston offense has missed his punch and has been struggling coming into this one. Both teams home/away splits show the under has hit more often than not when Boston is on the road and when KC is at home. I have this one set at 7.8 and it's going to take a final score of 9 to beat me, so I think we have enough value here to pull the trigger on the under. I think this one ends up with a 5-2 type game and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. GL.

Play #2

Diamondbacks ML (+140) 1x (Locked)

Worley has posted solid numbers, but I think you see this line stay steady at +140 or even drop a bit as the day goes on. I have a fair line of +129 for this one, so we are getting over 10 cents of "value" here. I am not one to fade the Phillies this season, especially since the Pence trade. However, even though Worley has never faced the Diamondbacks heading into this game which gives him a solid advantage, I think the D-backs steal this series and knock Worley around a bit today. Worley's advanced splits show he has already started to regress a bit as his numbers have gotten worse from June to July and from July to August. Plus, the guy is rocking a BABIP around .200 with a LOB over 80% when pitching in Philly, so I think those numbers start to really regress. On the other side, Kennedy has been dominate winning 7 games in a row and posting season numbers that support that streak with a K% over 20%, WHIP at 1.1 and FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA all in the 3.5 range. Plus, over a very small sample size of 59 AB's, Kennedy has just dominated the Philly lineup holding them to a BAA of .153 and OPS of .452. We are getting over 10 cents of "value" with Kennedy on the mound today, so I see no reason not to take a chance with the D-backs at such a good price. Every year, there are one or two teams who overachieve their way into the playoffs. The D-backs have made a believer out of me after doubting them because of the loss of Drew. I thought that would really hurt their offense and faded them right after his injury. That was a mistake and I lost a few units because of it. I'm not saying the D-backs will win the world series, however, they are shaping up to be this year's "little engine that could" just like the 2010 Giants, 2003 Marlins, 2005 White Sox and 2008 Cardinals or any of the teams in the past who overcame perceived weaknesses, got hot late in the season and were able find playoff success. I think the D-backs have momentum coming into this game. Yes, they ended up losing what was a close game until the late innings, but they did beat Doc in Philly in the first game of the series which must have given them a confidence boost. I don't think Kennedy and the D-backs are intimidated at all by the Phillies and I think they have the clear edge in starting pitching today. In addition, the D-backs actually have an offense that rates a bit better than Philly, with a slightly better bullpen and defense which is tops in the league as opposed to Philly who rates in the bottom third of the league in that category. Let's see where the line movement takes us today, but I expect the D-backs price to stay steady or for a drop. I don't expect a run on the Phillies, so I locked in the D-backs early for 1x. GL.

Play #3

Nationals -1 RL (+105) 1x (Locked)

Running really late for work, so I will just say this. Arroyo has pitched well of late but the advantage in starting pitching here is significant with Zimm having a +3.8 edge in WAR and over 1 point advantage in FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA with a huge advantage in K% as well. Zimm will be shut down soon because of his innings cap and I expect him to close strong. With that said, I would rather risk the push and take the Natties at plus odds as opposed to eating -140 juice. I guess the huge plus odds on the 1.5 RL gives us a hint that the books expect a close a game, however, I will take my chances. The Natties are a great home team and the Reds are a poor road team. I will always back the huge starting pitching disparity in this situation every time and will back the Natties here at home with Zimm on the amount for 1x. GL.

[Love The Action]

Leaning dodgers ml, toronto ml, small lean giants ml yankees -1rl and indians ml. Not too many totals leans/plays today...

[HOT WINGS]

Good luck I like the Nats and Dbacks. Like the Under 7 more than a side in LA game. Hopefully Kershaw has a good outing today, so LA bullpen doesnt have to be used much (if at all)

[guil0000]

funny your first 2 plays are the same I was debating. Arizona was a no brainer for me even after the line change (got it at +131). I didn't play the Boston/KC under yet but as I see your on it I will probably play it. Fading Cincinnati is a good thing I think untill the end of the year But I'm not willing to pay juice on Washington. BOL tonight

[blackeyeshamus]

awesome writing, LTA.
good luck today, sir!

[Love The Action]

No play on dodgers...i liked that play for any price under -119. Once it got up to -120 and above, all value is gone. I also lean under but I'm passing on this game all around. Bol...

[lolguy999]

No play on dodgers...i liked that play for any price under -119. Once it got up to -120 and above, all value is gone. I also lean under but I'm passing on this game all around. Bol...

3 cents

[Love The Action]

3 cents

I considered this play last night at -114 because I have a fair line of -119. However, I held off because the dodgers have no offensive punch right now. If I didn't take it at -114, then I'm surely not going to take it at -123. I would be giving up 9 cents of value, plus buying when the market was at its peak. That is a recipe for disaster in baseball where price is of the utmost importance (more than any other sport because you are constantly playing money lines). Remember, over the course of 800 or more plays that one might have in a mlb season, giving up ten cents of value adds up to a ton of money over time. You need to stay disciplined against the books to succeed. The best way to do that is to set your own lines and avoid wagering on stale or overpriced numbers. You have to set a pricing limit on each play and stick to it or you will rarely maintain an edge. GL.

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/18/11

Play #1

Boston/KC under (8.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

Even though I think Beckett regresses throughout this last part of the season, I think he keeps the Royals in check today limiting them to no more than a couple runs through 7 innings. As we all know, Beckett's numbers have been dominate all year. His K% is around 22%, WHIP under 1, BAA under .200 and FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA all in the 3.3 to 3.5 range. Even though his BABIP is way low at .233 and his LOB% way high over 83%, his ability to get key strikeouts shows that, even though he is due to regress, perhaps that regression may not be so dramatic. Yes, he gave up 5 runs in his last outting, however, based on this season, whenever he has given up 3 or more runs, he bounces back by allowing less than 3 earned runs in his next game. A small sample size for sure, yet it shows Beckett's short term tendencies and perhaps he is using his mind more than his physical tools for the first time in his career. On the other side, Hochevar has pitched well of late and has the ability to keep the ball on the ground. With Ortiz out, the Boston offense has missed his punch and has been struggling coming into this one. Both teams home/away splits show the under has hit more often than not when Boston is on the road and when KC is at home. I have this one set at 7.8 and it's going to take a final score of 9 to beat me, so I think we have enough value here to pull the trigger on the under. I think this one ends up with a 5-2 type game and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. GL.

Play #2

Diamondbacks ML (+140) 1x (Locked)

Worley has posted solid numbers, but I think you see this line stay steady at +140 or even drop a bit as the day goes on. I have a fair line of +129 for this one, so we are getting over 10 cents of "value" here. I am not one to fade the Phillies this season, especially since the Pence trade. However, even though Worley has never faced the Diamondbacks heading into this game which gives him a solid advantage, I think the D-backs steal this series and knock Worley around a bit today. Worley's advanced splits show he has already started to regress a bit as his numbers have gotten worse from June to July and from July to August. Plus, the guy is rocking a BABIP around .200 with a LOB over 80% when pitching in Philly, so I think those numbers start to really regress. On the other side, Kennedy has been dominate winning 7 games in a row and posting season numbers that support that streak with a K% over 20%, WHIP at 1.1 and FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA all in the 3.5 range. Plus, over a very small sample size of 59 AB's, Kennedy has just dominated the Philly lineup holding them to a BAA of .153 and OPS of .452. We are getting over 10 cents of "value" with Kennedy on the mound today, so I see no reason not to take a chance with the D-backs at such a good price. Every year, there are one or two teams who overachieve their way into the playoffs. The D-backs have made a believer out of me after doubting them because of the loss of Drew. I thought that would really hurt their offense and faded them right after his injury. That was a mistake and I lost a few units because of it. I'm not saying the D-backs will win the world series, however, they are shaping up to be this year's "little engine that could" just like the 2010 Giants, 2003 Marlins, 2005 White Sox and 2008 Cardinals or any of the teams in the past who overcame perceived weaknesses, got hot late in the season and were able find playoff success. I think the D-backs have momentum coming into this game. Yes, they ended up losing what was a close game until the late innings, but they did beat Doc in Philly in the first game of the series which must have given them a confidence boost. I don't think Kennedy and the D-backs are intimidated at all by the Phillies and I think they have the clear edge in starting pitching today. In addition, the D-backs actually have an offense that rates a bit better than Philly, with a slightly better bullpen and defense which is tops in the league as opposed to Philly who rates in the bottom third of the league in that category. Let's see where the line movement takes us today, but I expect the D-backs price to stay steady or for a drop. I don't expect a run on the Phillies, so I locked in the D-backs early for 1x. GL.

Play #3

Nationals -1 RL (+105) 1x (Locked)

Running really late for work, so I will just say this. Arroyo has pitched well of late but the advantage in starting pitching here is significant with Zimm having a +3.8 edge in WAR and over 1 point advantage in FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA with a huge advantage in K% as well. Zimm will be shut down soon because of his innings cap and I expect him to close strong. With that said, I would rather risk the push and take the Natties at plus odds as opposed to eating -140 juice. I guess the huge plus odds on the 1.5 RL gives us a hint that the books expect a close a game, however, I will take my chances. The Natties are a great home team and the Reds are a poor road team. I will always back the huge starting pitching disparity in this situation every time and will back the Natties here at home with Zimm on the amount for 1x. GL.

Play #4

Indians ML (-113) 1x (Locked)


We have two starting pitchers going in opposite directions. Humber is regressing while Masterson has been masterful. Masterson holds a significant edge in advanced stats despite Humbers career year. I have this one at -119, as a result of Humbers recent slide. Even though he has not faced the tribe before, I still expect struggles. The sox have been a poor home team and their offense will struggle without Pierzynski. These teams are evenly matched outside of tonights starters, but the tribe has a significant edge in that category and I am backing them for 1x. GL.

[Love The Action]

Still looking at the yankees and toronto. The yanks went up to -228 at one my local books with a -145 rl. Insane...

[70kgman]

Good luck tonight. Like that Cleveland play. Masterson is very tough on right handed batters and should dominate that right handed heavy Sox line-up.