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lets smash the books tonight !
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Wow, did you realize that 12 of last 14 Oak home games went over, the 2 that didn't were pushes. Gio has been wild and ineffective of late. Yet Balty has won 1 time in their last 11 against Lefties. What gives in this game LTA? Very tempted on the over.
As per my Muts, no way I can back them here, as I stated earlier am in fade mode and Harang is certainly capable at home. 1st game back home (which ain't been too sweet) for Pads after a long road trip, tough spot sometimes. Only reason I am not playing the Pads tonight.
Waiting to see the lineups, only play for me may be over. Dickey/Harang locked up in NY (pitcher park as well) last week and runs were scored. Both these guys are typical keep your team in the game type pitchers and rarely will dominate. With each teams pen performance of late, should be good for some late runs even if starters are pretty effective.
Also need to ask you about the Cubbies tonight my Chi-town friend. The exorcism of Zambrano could have a bit of a gelling effect on team, they have been hot, winning 9 of last 11 against RHP. The advanced offense stats over last 2 weeks are ridiculous with the Cubs at the top in NL and the Stros at the bottom. So I look at the line and it is -124, hmmmmm. Lopez has been decent since end of June....what gives here man, shouldn't it be more expensive?Comment -
Oakland is on a monster over roll...like 26 of their last 28 have gone over. With that said, I don't really like the over tonight.
I lean padres but no play.
I like your cubs analysis, but lean to the over rather than the side.
Been super busy with work, but lean rockies, cards and tigers. Deciding now. Bol tonight!Comment -
Remember Rappin' Duke, duh-ha, duh-ha
I never thought that houston would let Sosa take it this far
Backin the Juicy cubs tonight here.
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Bros, great breakdown on the impact of league's new kick off rules on point totals:
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Bros, great breakdown on the impact of league's new kick off rules on point totals:
http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com...koff_Rule.html
Good info bud...thanks.
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That's it for right now. I had a crazy busy day at work and decided against playing my early leans on the Cards, Tigers and Rox. Let's see how that decision works out.
Still leaning under in Toronto/Seattle. I like Texas, but too much juice for me. I will post any other plays. Good luck to everyone's plays. Hopefully we can get lucky in the SF/Atl game and the current 3-2 score holds up. SF needs to blank Atl in their final four atbats though. That will be a challenge.Comment -
time for the beard. hope he is healthy.Comment -
The Beard is not a good closer. Fails again tonightComment -
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MLB Recap 8/15/15
0 - 1 = -1.2x
MLB Season 2011
340 - 306 = +30.3x
Wow...the unreal streak of suffering last inning losses by bullpen collapses continues. We have lost over 7x in the last week on late inning bullpen collapses -- and that was amidst a small heater -- imagine how much we could have made had these bullpens done their job. I know it's part of the game -- I get it -- and I approach bad beats rationally and analytically, but this is ridiculous.
Anyway, I have no choice but to move on. No need to force anything else for tonight. I just picked up and I have no intention of giving any of it back. There's always tomorrow. Good luck to those playing the late games.Comment -
I have the Seattle game in an action reverse. I took the over 7.5 and Seattle ML, now just hoping that Seattle can hold on to the 6-5 leadComment -
MLB 8/16/11
Play #1
Cubs/Astros under (7.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)
Battle of the old-timers with Dempster versus Myers. I have this one at 6.95, which is somewhat surprising because the Cubs are hitting well, Myers is nothing special, Minute Maid park is a solid offensive park, the Astros have hit Demp pretty well in the past, both teams lean over in their home/road splits and their bullpens are weak. All that, yet Pinny opened at 7.5 even though the rest of the market was at 8. Everyone soon followed suit and now you see all 7.5's. The reason I think you see the total getting juiced on the under before game time is because of Myers and Dempster and the weak hitting Astros. If you look at Myers, he has been improving as the season progressed. His splits have improved month to month and he has sported FIP and xFIP in the mid 3's for the last couple months, with BABIP's in the .330 range which tells me this guy is due for a little bit of success coming up here. On the other side, Dempster is valuable guy with a 2.5 WAR and, just like Myers, has improved as the season progressed with FIP and xFIP under 3 in July and a total of 3 earned runs given up so far in two August starts. Dempster's recent 116 pitch performance against the Nationals does not concern me as the guy is a gamer and is used to high innings. Plus, his huge BABIP on the road in the .360 range is due to regress down toward the league average. I am concerned a bit about the bullpens and contemplated the FF, but decided to roll with the game under. The ump is Porter who has a bit of an under lean, a per/gm/avg runs under 7 and a 62.5% strike rate. Based on the foregoing, I'm rolling with the under for 1x.
Play #2
Orioles/A's over (8)(-115) 1x (Locked)
This is more a fade of Moscoso than anything else. I do not hold that guy in high regard at all and have cashed on three overs in a row fading this clown. This guy doesn't get strike outs, has FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA in the high 4's or low 5's and throws way too many fly balls and home runs. On the other side, Matusz is a highly regarded prospect that was shelled earlier this year and was reportedly not mentally ready for the rigors of the big leagues. He has pitched well since being demoted, however, I think he struggles just enough to push this one over. As everyone knows, the A's are on an unprecedented over streak and I think it continues one more night. The ump has a strike rate I would rather have on the under, but his per/gm/average is a little above 8 and he has a slight over lean in general. I think this one goes up to 8.5 at some point tomorrow morning, so I'm locking it in now for 1x.Last edited by Love The Action; 08-16-11, 07:06 AM.Comment -
Nice calls overall LTA, that Brian Wilson failure was hard to digest, I like the guy, characters like him are good for baseball - but his WHIP is just disastrous, and tonight was an example.
Don't want to clutter your posts but it looks like Walt is starting to be alienated by Gus, and yet somehow I feel jesse is slowly being turned against Walt, with that said it remains to be seen if Mike will remain loyal to Gus. Hilarious to see Walt F#%@ Skyler again. Hopefully you've seen some of season 4 as we spoke about earlier, or else I might be wasting ur time lol.
In any case, I like the Orioles over, I was going to add my own 2 leans:
Halladay vs. Collmenter
Philly v. Arizona over 7 1/2 as Collmenter (7-7, 3.51) is 0-3 with a 7.08 ERA over his last four road outings. Halladay has recorded an 'over' in 3 out of his last 5 home starts. And the Phillies offense is averaging 5.6 runs while taking 13 of 15. In Halladay's last start against Arizona he went the distance in a 7-1 win over the Diamondbacks on July 28, 2010, (Justin Upton sat out the game w/ injury for Arizona) improving to 3-0 with a 2.61 ERA lifetime against Arizona. The Arizona lineup this year has more pop in it than last year, (less strikeouts, higher WHIP against and Upton is on a tear. Given Collmenter's struggles on the road I see the Phillies accounting for 5-8 runs, with Arizona picking up some slack with 2-3 runs.
Gianta v. Braves over 8
Sanchez v. Delgado
Jonathan Sanchez(4-7, 4.29) gets the ball looking to prove he’s worthy of remaining the Giants’ No. 5 starter. The left-hander is 0-4 with a 6.14 ERA in six starts since beating St. Louis on June 2, and he’s failed to complete five innings in each of the last four. Sanchez’s last two starts have come after he spent five weeks on the disabled list with a biceps injury. He’s lost both games while allowing 10 runs and 11 hits with six walks in nine innings. He’s 1-3 with a 5.63 ERA in eight games - six starts - versus the Braves.
Braves rookie Randal Delgado (0-1, 6.75 ERA) is expected to be recalled from Triple-A Gwinnett to make a spot start, Delgado was victimized by a big inning in his only major league game June 17 in a 6-2 loss to Texas. Three of the four runs he allowed came in the fifth, and he was pulled before recording an out in that inning. Both pitchers have recorded eras above 5 in their last few starts, given Delgado's one start...
I'm leaning on the San Fran game as more of a guarantee, just wanted to place some opinion.
BOL 2morrow
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Good Breaking Bad analysis. I don't want to throw out any spoilers, but it's clear Gus is trying to divide and conquer when it comes to Walt and Jesse. Even worse for Gus and Walt, is Hank's new-found motivation to find the real Heisenberg. Good stuff....this season might just be the best yet...and that is really saying something.Nice calls overall LTA, that Brian Wilson failure was hard to digest, I like the guy, characters like him are good for baseball - but his WHIP is just disastrous, and tonight was an example.
Don't want to clutter your posts but it looks like Walt is starting to be alienated by Gus, and yet somehow I feel jesse is slowly being turned against Walt, with that said it remains to be seen if Mike will remain loyal to Gus. Hilarious to see Walt F#%@ Skyler again. Hopefully you've seen some of season 4 as we spoke about earlier, or else I might be wasting ur time lol.
In any case, I like the Orioles over, I was going to add my own 2 leans:
Halladay vs. Collmenter
Philly v. Arizona over 7 1/2 as Collmenter (7-7, 3.51) is 0-3 with a 7.08 ERA over his last four road outings. Halladay has recorded an 'over' in 3 out of his last 5 home starts. And the Phillies offense is averaging 5.6 runs while taking 13 of 15. In Halladay's last start against Arizona he went the distance in a 7-1 win over the Diamondbacks on July 28, 2010, (Justin Upton sat out the game w/ injury for Arizona) improving to 3-0 with a 2.61 ERA lifetime against Arizona. The Arizona lineup this year has more pop in it than last year, (less strikeouts, higher WHIP against and Upton is on a tear. Given Collmenter's struggles on the road I see the Phillies accounting for 5-8 runs, with Arizona picking up some slack with 2-3 runs.
Gianta v. Braves over 8
Sanchez v. Delgado
Jonathan Sanchez(4-7, 4.29) gets the ball looking to prove he’s worthy of remaining the Giants’ No. 5 starter. The left-hander is 0-4 with a 6.14 ERA in six starts since beating St. Louis on June 2, and he’s failed to complete five innings in each of the last four. Sanchez’s last two starts have come after he spent five weeks on the disabled list with a biceps injury. He’s lost both games while allowing 10 runs and 11 hits with six walks in nine innings. He’s 1-3 with a 5.63 ERA in eight games - six starts - versus the Braves.
Braves rookie Randal Delgado (0-1, 6.75 ERA) is expected to be recalled from Triple-A Gwinnett to make a spot start, Delgado was victimized by a big inning in his only major league game June 17 in a 6-2 loss to Texas. Three of the four runs he allowed came in the fifth, and he was pulled before recording an out in that inning. Both pitchers have recorded eras above 5 in their last few starts, given Delgado's one start...
I'm leaning on the San Fran game as more of a guarantee, just wanted to place some opinion.
BOL 2morrow
I can't disagree with your MLB plays on the Philly over and Giants over. Both Philly and AZ have great offenses and that are hot at the moment. However, Doc is Doc and can shut AZ down easily. On the other side Collmenter has not been very good of late, but still has solid numbers and the ability to put up a quality start against the Phillies. I have this on right at 7.48, so I can't say the books are too off with that one.
I would also be careful with the Sanchez/Delgado matchup. Delgado is a top prospect for the Braves that posted huge strikeout numbers in the minors and a FIP year after year around 3 coming up through the Braves system. He's only had one start in the majors and never faced the Giants lineup, so I think he has a bit of an advantage against those struggling hitters. As we all know, Sanchez has a ton of talent and it's just a matter of time before he rounds into shape after the injury. With the Giants offense so weak, I just can't pull the trigger on that one. I have that one right at the current number as well.
Good luck...I hope you cash both!Comment -
Will be checking in on your chick thread a bit later.Comment -
Top of the morning to ya bud. Juicy card today. Tons of dogs +140 with decent/good pitchers on the mound. Doggie players are drooling all over their computers as we speak.
Looking forward to your plays today, Bol
Playing with house money this week as I nailed a 6 teamer last night
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Wow...congrats! Post those parlays so we all can cash! Stay hot budTop of the morning to ya bud. Juicy card today. Tons of dogs +140 with decent/good pitchers on the mound. Doggie players are drooling all over their computers as we speak.
Looking forward to your plays today, Bol
Playing with house money this week as I nailed a 6 teamer last night
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This was last night's ticket. Notice how the Met game hasn't been updated yet. My local gets in at like 11 am, yet has all the opening lines in from last night
. Great for jumping early line movement. Don't like to post my lotto parlay's because it just feels irresponsible. You know better than I parlay's are sucker bets. I just happy to be a lucky ass sucker.
6Parlay
905 AT Chicago Cubs
-138 [4,3]
8/15/2011 8:05:00 PM 910 AT Colorado Rockies
-150 [4,7]
8/15/2011 8:40:00 PM 911 AT New York Mets Over +7 EV
8/15/2011 10:05:00 PM 915 AT New York Yankees Over +9½ EV [7,4]
8/15/2011 8:10:00 PM 917 AT Baltimore Orioles Over +7½ -105 [6,2]
8/15/2011 10:05:00 PM 921 AT Toronto Blue Jays Over +7 -120 [5,6]
8/15/2011 10:10:00 PM 100/4015 # 53199Comment -
I've been one team shy of an 8 teamer 6 times in a week. Just putting $10 a bet but it's cost me every bit of 8k.Comment -
good luck today on your plays.Comment -
Good luck tonight bro.
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You are right. Weird...last night, pinny's opener was showning 7.5 on SI, but today says 8. I would have made it a 1.5x play if i could have gotten 8. Oh well, I obviously still like the under at 7.5. Nice catch. Thanks and good luck!
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Great write-ups bro. bOL to you and Redscot. Check back with u later after WNBA (on fever-2)
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Wow...congrats bud. So is he going to finish last couple years of high school or off to college at a young age? Either way, that is quite an accomplishment and you should be very proud. It is clear you and your wife have done a great job as parents and that's the most important job we all have. Good work Red!
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