LTA's MLB Plays

[alamo]

He recovered though nicely....good luck tonight alamo...might have a wnba play today as well. Lets make some money

You are most welcome....glad I could help...lets do it again today

He sure did! I dont play many of the Bases as Im more a baskets man. Played that game though and when I saw him getting smacked outta the park and into the bay I thought we were in trouble. He certainly got his arm going though.

Looking forward to hopefully a baskets play with the women LTA and good luck as always with all the plays

[Love The Action]

Looking hard at a ml parlay on the brewers and angels as a full 1x play. Any reason not to back those two teams?

[CHAZ]

Keep up the great work LTA!

[GGALLERT]

No reason not to like those teams...
Any leans on Cle-Tex over 9
Det/KC over 9

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/5/11

Yankees/Red Sox under (9)(+100) 1x (Locked)

• I could have gotten 9.5 with heavy juice, but rolled with 9 at plus odds instead. I did this because I think this one stays way under or goes way over. However, I am investing in the under.
• Colon is pitching against Lester. Say what you will about Colon -- and I have because I watched him pitch in Chicago for the White Sox and he was a fat, lazy POS -- however, I must admit that he has pitched quite well this year. In addition, thanks to some inside info from SBR's very own Redscot, we know that Colon worked out hard all off-season and is highly motivated to have a good year in order to cash in on what could be his final contract. I don't care if Colon is motivated by money, as long as he is motivated. If you look at his stats, you can see that he has pitched well all year. Colon has a FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA all under 3.3. His BABIP does not evidence any extreme luck with it sitting at .300 and he has a healthy 72.1% LOB%. With Colon getting much-needed strikeouts as evidenced by his K% over 21% and crucial ground ball as shown by his GB/FB of 1.33, I think he limits the Red Sox tonight. His splits are consistent home/away and lefty/righty so nothing concerns me from that aspect and he has a solid history against Boston. In his career he has held this vaunted Red Sox lineup to a .195 BAA and an OPS under .600. That impresses me and his strong history against Boston was the clincher for me on this play. However, Lester also has impressed.
• Lester has a FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA under 3.5. His K% is over 23% and he gets ground balls as well with a solid 1.43 GB/FB. Even though the Yankees have won over 60% of their games against lefties in the last two years (which means you should generally always play the Yanks when they face lefties), they have not succeeded much against Lester who has held that dangerous lineup to a BAA under .240 and an OPS under .700 in going 8 -1 against the Bombers in his career. I don't think there is another lefty in the league who has given the Yanks as many problems as Lester so I think we are safe with the under here as I expect a nice game from both Colon and Lester.
• Even though both offenses are two of the best in the league, both teams also have top 10 bullpens and top 5 offenses. My model has this one at 8.2, so I really like that a total of 10 has to beat us. I think that will be tough with these two pitchers going tonight.
• I expect this to be playoff atmostphere and its a big TV game. The public is pounding the over as expected, yet we have seen early RLM on the under. I agree with the big money here and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. No ump assignments yet, but if we get an under leaning ump and the line stays steady, we may add to this play. Good luck.

Play #2
Cards/Marlins under (8.5) 1x (Locked)

Tried to lock this in earlier at plus odds, but got caught up at work. If you look ay both pitchers histories against the opposing lineups, you will see dominance by Westbrook and Sanchez. In addition, both pitchers have solid advanced stats with Sanchez having great strikeout ability and Westbrook able to induce a ton of ground ball outs. Infante, Freese, Ramirez and Molina are alll out, so that will hurt both lineups and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[peterpan19]

Great thread
GL today

[Love The Action]

No reason not to like those teams...
Any leans on Cle-Tex over 9
Det/KC over 9

What up GG...how is the baby? Hope all is well. No lean on the texas game, but I do lean under in the detroit game. I like Paulino and Porcelo has pitched well of late. Waiting on weather, lineups and ump in that one before deciding. Bol..

[Love The Action]

Keep up the great work LTA!

[Love The Action]

Great thread
GL today

You too!

[Love The Action]

We are playing the yanks under and cards under. Here are my remaining leans:

Detroit under
Giants over
Braves under
Angels under
Action parlay with TB, LAA and Mil.

Be back with the final plays later. GL..

[Redscot]

We are playing the yanks under and cards under. Here are my remaining leans:

Detroit under
Giants over
Braves under
Angels under
Action parlay with TB, LAA and Mil.

Be back with the final plays later. GL..

Lookin' Good LTA.

Busy day, haven't look much into anything but I will say that K.C./Det under jumped at me at first glance. Paulino with K.C. has been SUPER hard luck. Since coming over to the American league he has put up a 3.51 era, with like a .350 babip! AL Starters Paulino ranks 7th in Siera and top 20 in all other periph's. . K-ing about 1 per inning etc. etc. Do I think he is all world, nope, but in 66 innings since joining the Royals he has been FAR better than most would imagine at first glance. Is he due to come back down to earth?
Porcello has been on a great roll, with masterful control of late.

Anyway, looking forward to your picks LTA. BOL to you and all others who partake in this thread.

[BigDan]

phi/sf ov seems tempting as hell to me. Sanchez fresh off the dl against phils bats, still waiting for Worley to come down to earth, could today be the day he stops making me look like a ass for continually sayin he isnt this good?

[Redscot]

Liking the Yanks/Sox call too bro. Any Ump angle on it yet? So much of Bartolo's success this season has been predicated on his 2-seamer which has great run on it. If he get's the squeeze on that pitch that would be my biggest concern. Will be on it with you, playoff intensity, scratch and claw type game.

[Redscot]

phi/sf ov seems tempting as hell to me. Sanchez fresh off the dl against phils bats, still waiting for Worley to come down to earth, could today be the day he stops making me look like a ass for continually sayin he isnt this good?

I don't know who Worley and Kendrick think they are! Goes to show how the vet's set the standard in the rotation and these other guys pitch over their heads. Kendrick NO one can convince me isn't a gascan in disguise, dude has been very lucky imo. Worley on the other hand I think has been pretty good and fairly deserving of it, although I agree he has some coming back down to earth to do. Sanchez is such a crap shoot, you'd have to lean on him having some control issue tonight for sure. S.F.'s bats are also a crap shoot right now, but they have to break out sooner or later.....don't they?

Wow, I wrote all that without looking at the line. 6 1/2 here, wow, that DOES seem low.

[mngambler]

I don't know who Worley and Kendrick think they are! Goes to show how the vet's set the standard in the rotation and these other guys pitch over their heads. Kendrick NO one can convince me isn't a gascan in disguise, dude has been very lucky imo. Worley on the other hand I think has been pretty good and fairly deserving of it, although I agree he has some coming back down to earth to do. Sanchez is such a crap shoot, you'd have to lean on him having some control issue tonight for sure. S.F.'s bats are also a crap shoot right now, but they have to break out sooner or later.....don't they?

Wow, I wrote all that without looking at the line. 6 1/2 here, wow, that DOES seem low.

lol I saw this an hour ago and thought the same thing hmmm

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/5/11

Yankees/Red Sox under (9)(+100) 1x (Locked)

• I could have gotten 9.5 with heavy juice, but rolled with 9 at plus odds instead. I did this because I think this one stays way under or goes way over. However, I am investing in the under.
• Colon is pitching against Lester. Say what you will about Colon -- and I have because I watched him pitch in Chicago for the White Sox and he was a fat, lazy POS -- however, I must admit that he has pitched quite well this year. In addition, thanks to some inside info from SBR's very own Redscot, we know that Colon worked out hard all off-season and is highly motivated to have a good year in order to cash in on what could be his final contract. I don't care if Colon is motivated by money, as long as he is motivated. If you look at his stats, you can see that he has pitched well all year. Colon has a FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA all under 3.3. His BABIP does not evidence any extreme luck with it sitting at .300 and he has a healthy 72.1% LOB%. With Colon getting much-needed strikeouts as evidenced by his K% over 21% and crucial ground ball as shown by his GB/FB of 1.33, I think he limits the Red Sox tonight. His splits are consistent home/away and lefty/righty so nothing concerns me from that aspect and he has a solid history against Boston. In his career he has held this vaunted Red Sox lineup to a .195 BAA and an OPS under .600. That impresses me and his strong history against Boston was the clincher for me on this play. However, Lester also has impressed.
• Lester has a FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA under 3.5. His K% is over 23% and he gets ground balls as well with a solid 1.43 GB/FB. Even though the Yankees have won over 60% of their games against lefties in the last two years (which means you should generally always play the Yanks when they face lefties), they have not succeeded much against Lester who has held that dangerous lineup to a BAA under .240 and an OPS under .700 in going 8 -1 against the Bombers in his career. I don't think there is another lefty in the league who has given the Yanks as many problems as Lester so I think we are safe with the under here as I expect a nice game from both Colon and Lester.
• Even though both offenses are two of the best in the league, both teams also have top 10 bullpens and top 5 offenses. My model has this one at 8.2, so I really like that a total of 10 has to beat us. I think that will be tough with these two pitchers going tonight.
• I expect this to be playoff atmostphere and its a big TV game. The public is pounding the over as expected, yet we have seen early RLM on the under. I agree with the big money here and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. No ump assignments yet, but if we get an under leaning ump and the line stays steady, we may add to this play. Good luck.

Play #2
Cards/Marlins under (8.5) 1x (Locked)

Tried to lock this in earlier at plus odds, but got caught up at work. If you look ay both pitchers histories against the opposing lineups, you will see dominance by Westbrook and Sanchez. In addition, both pitchers have solid advanced stats with Sanchez having great strikeout ability and Westbrook able to induce a ton of ground ball outs. Infante, Freese, Ramirez and Molina are alll out, so that will hurt both lineups and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3
Detroit/KC under (9)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Got a decent price and the ump isn't bad. Redscot provided a nice summary of my thoughts on Paulino above and Porcello has been pitching well. More to come. Good luck.

[GoggsViggs]

LTA, I like that Yankees bosox under! Let's get it and bOL to all.

Check back with u later, I'll be watching CFL (bombers, under 50)

[Mr. Peepers]

Do you like the under in the nats game? Zimmermann is having a great yr and he gets very little run support when he pitches

[Love The Action]

LTA, I like that Yankees bosox under! Let's get it and bOL to all.

Check back with u later, I'll be watching CFL (bombers, under 50)

Same to you...I don't crap about cfl....is that your play? Should I tail for some action?

[Love The Action]

Do you like the under in the nats game? Zimmermann is having a great yr and he gets very little run support when he pitches

I love Zimmerman, but not of late. I generally don't play unders in colorado, but if I had to choose I would go with the under.

[Love The Action]

Liking the Yanks/Sox call too bro. Any Ump angle on it yet? So much of Bartolo's success this season has been predicated on his 2-seamer which has great run on it. If he get's the squeeze on that pitch that would be my biggest concern. Will be on it with you, playoff intensity, scratch and claw type game.

Did you notice the shout out I gave in my writeup for that one...loved your inside info about colon this offseason...thanks

[Love The Action]

I don't know who Worley and Kendrick think they are! Goes to show how the vet's set the standard in the rotation and these other guys pitch over their heads. Kendrick NO one can convince me isn't a gascan in disguise, dude has been very lucky imo. Worley on the other hand I think has been pretty good and fairly deserving of it, although I agree he has some coming back down to earth to do. Sanchez is such a crap shoot, you'd have to lean on him having some control issue tonight for sure. S.F.'s bats are also a crap shoot right now, but they have to break out sooner or later.....don't they?

Wow, I wrote all that without looking at the line. 6 1/2 here, wow, that DOES seem low.

Agreed...I think worley regresses soon and love fading pitchers to the over in their first start off the dl...bol

[Redscot]

Did you notice the shout out I gave in my writeup for that one...loved your inside info about colon this offseason...thanks

Caught that my man, thanks for the props, let's just hope fat boy is hitting corners tonight

[Love The Action]

ML Action Parlay (win or lose not for records)

TB/Milwaukee/LAA
0.25x to win a little over 0.50x

Good luck!

[GoggsViggs]

Same to you...I don't crap about cfl....is that your play? Should I tail for some action?

That's my play: Bombers+1.5, I got the under early at 50 but think 49 is still good. Sprinkle a quarter on each, don't go crazy. I have $50 on each.

[Love The Action]

That's my play: Bombers+1.5, I got the under early at 50 but think 49 is still good. Sprinkle a quarter on each, don't go crazy. I have $50 on each.

Lets do it! I'm tailing....this is my first cfl play ever....good luck!

[The Coach's Desk]

I like the ov 9 in NYY/BOS but
BOL to you LTA

[Love The Action]

I like the ov 9 in NYY/BOS but
BOL to you LTA

Same to you coach...surprised to see you backing a public play....

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/5/11

Yankees/Red Sox under (9)(+100) 1x (Locked)

• I could have gotten 9.5 with heavy juice, but rolled with 9 at plus odds instead. I did this because I think this one stays way under or goes way over. However, I am investing in the under.
• Colon is pitching against Lester. Say what you will about Colon -- and I have because I watched him pitch in Chicago for the White Sox and he was a fat, lazy POS -- however, I must admit that he has pitched quite well this year. In addition, thanks to some inside info from SBR's very own Redscot, we know that Colon worked out hard all off-season and is highly motivated to have a good year in order to cash in on what could be his final contract. I don't care if Colon is motivated by money, as long as he is motivated. If you look at his stats, you can see that he has pitched well all year. Colon has a FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA all under 3.3. His BABIP does not evidence any extreme luck with it sitting at .300 and he has a healthy 72.1% LOB%. With Colon getting much-needed strikeouts as evidenced by his K% over 21% and crucial ground ball as shown by his GB/FB of 1.33, I think he limits the Red Sox tonight. His splits are consistent home/away and lefty/righty so nothing concerns me from that aspect and he has a solid history against Boston. In his career he has held this vaunted Red Sox lineup to a .195 BAA and an OPS under .600. That impresses me and his strong history against Boston was the clincher for me on this play. However, Lester also has impressed.
• Lester has a FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA under 3.5. His K% is over 23% and he gets ground balls as well with a solid 1.43 GB/FB. Even though the Yankees have won over 60% of their games against lefties in the last two years (which means you should generally always play the Yanks when they face lefties), they have not succeeded much against Lester who has held that dangerous lineup to a BAA under .240 and an OPS under .700 in going 8 -1 against the Bombers in his career. I don't think there is another lefty in the league who has given the Yanks as many problems as Lester so I think we are safe with the under here as I expect a nice game from both Colon and Lester.
• Even though both offenses are two of the best in the league, both teams also have top 10 bullpens and top 5 offenses. My model has this one at 8.2, so I really like that a total of 10 has to beat us. I think that will be tough with these two pitchers going tonight.
• I expect this to be playoff atmostphere and its a big TV game. The public is pounding the over as expected, yet we have seen early RLM on the under. I agree with the big money here and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. No ump assignments yet, but if we get an under leaning ump and the line stays steady, we may add to this play. Good luck.

Play #2
Cards/Marlins under (8.5) 1x (Locked)

Tried to lock this in earlier at plus odds, but got caught up at work. If you look ay both pitchers histories against the opposing lineups, you will see dominance by Westbrook and Sanchez. In addition, both pitchers have solid advanced stats with Sanchez having great strikeout ability and Westbrook able to induce a ton of ground ball outs. Infante, Freese, Ramirez and Molina are alll out, so that will hurt both lineups and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.


Play #3
Detroit/KC under (9)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Got a decent price and the ump isn't bad. Redscot provided a nice summary of my thoughts on Paulino above and Porcello has been pitching well. More to come. Good luck.

Play #4
Braves/Mets under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

[Love The Action]

We have some scary looking unders today involving high powered offenses, but I have to trust my model and they are all solid public fades. Taking off from work now and heading home. Be back in time for the late games. Good luck!

[Redscot]

We have some scary looking unders today involving high powered offenses, but I have to trust my model and they are all solid public fades. Taking off from work now and heading home. Be back in time for the late games. Good luck!

Gambling ain't for the faint of heart. GL tonight bud, let's start this weekend out with a bang.

[Redscot]

Bartolo's mechanic's went to shit in the 5th. Tony Pena knows him real well, you could see him get in Girardi's ear. Good call pulling him here, come on Logan toe the line!

[Love The Action]

Bartolo's mechanic's went to shit in the 5th. Tony Pena knows him real well, you could see him get in Girardi's ear. Good call pulling him here, come on Logan toe the line!

He got out of it but now Lester's in trouble....

[blumpkin]

looking at sf ginats tt over 3. i dont think you play tt but any opnions?

[Love The Action]

looking at sf ginats tt over 3. i dont think you play tt but any opnions?

I lean over and will decide whether its a play in a few minutes. I think we see at least 7. The question is, who gets 4 and who gets 3. I would lean to Philly winning this one just because Sanchez is coming off the DL, which is a good time to fade. Usually, the second start back is more effective. Not sure that helps you too much, but I think the Giants might get 3, not sure they will get much more than that. Good luck.