LTA's MLB Plays

[Love The Action]

Two fvcking wild pitches by Lopez in the top of the 9th of the AZ/SF game cost us our swing game and a 4-2 night...WTF

Really pisses me off... Unreal.

[No coincidences]

Two fvcking wild pitches by Lopez in the top of the 9th of the AZ/SF game cost us our swing game and a 4-2 night...WTF

Really pisses me off... Unreal.

He looked like he was actually trying to give up 2 runs there.

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/2/11

Play #1

Cubs/Pirates under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

• Despite both teams coming into this game with five straight overs, the Cubs' six home runs on Tuesday night and Morton's shellacking by the Phillies in his most recent start, I really like this play and may add another unit tomorrow.
• Both pitchers have the capability to throw ground balls, keep the ball in the ballpark and get crucial double plays. Morton is second in the league with a GB/FB of 3.3, but at home it's over 4. Garza rocks a 1.65 GB/FB, but over 1.7 on the road. I don't expect six home runs on Wednesday like we saw in the previous game, because I think both pitchers force some easy ground ball outs.
• Both pitchers also have solid advanced stats. Morton has a FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA in the high 3's or low 4's, whereas Garza is a stud in the 3.1's. Plus, both pitchers have really high BABIP's over 3, but Morton is even higher at home and Garza higher on the road. This tells me both pitchers have been a bit unlucky in those situations and things will start to fall their way in the 2h of the season. With both pitchers having relatively low LOB%, I think we see better performances out of both pitchers over the next couple months and those solid performances should start Wednesday.
• Everyone will be pounding the over in this one based on both teams' recent big totals, however, the stats don't show that either team has really been hitting all that well over the last 1o games or so.
• Davidson is the ump assigned to this game and with his solid under lean and 63.5% strike rate, I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Braves -1 RL (-125) 1x (Locked)

About to hit the hay...super tired. However, this play is all about fading Wong in this spot and supporting Beachy. I just don't think the Braves get swept in this spot. Perhaps I will drop some more notes on this one tomorrow. GL.

[Love The Action]

Still can't believe how we got fvcked out of a 4-2 day by Lopez and his multiple wild pitches, but that's baseball and we move on. Its wednesday and I love these two plays so far. Back to the grind and making this b2b profitable weeks. Bol today!

[qsilver335]

I like the Braves as well, good luck!

[BigDan]

Still can't believe how we got fvcked out of a 4-2 day by Lopez and his multiple wild pitches, but that's baseball and we move on. Its wednesday and I love these two plays so far. Back to the grind and making this b2b profitable weeks. Bol today!

what is worse is being on zona both days yet dumping half back each day to watch the total go over buy one. maybe not worse but very frustrating. 1 of these days i will stop playing a total and side in the same game....

oh yea f u rox for not bothering to show up last night

GL today brother

[Love The Action]

I like the Braves as well, good luck!

Let's get it Q!

[Love The Action]

what is worse is being on zona both days yet dumping half back each day to watch the total go over buy one. maybe not worse but very frustrating. 1 of these days i will stop playing a total and side in the same game....

oh yea f u rox for not bothering to show up last night

GL today brother

Yeah, but when you cash them both you feel like you capped a game perfectly and that is rewarding feeling.

I also agree about the Rox...where the hell were there bats against Kendrick. I have to say, he has really surprised me over his last 4 starts or so...he has been very solid. The problem is, as soon as we back him, he will revert to prior gascan form and burn us.

Good luck to you Dan....let's make some money today

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/2/11

Play #1

Cubs/Pirates under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

• Despite both teams coming into this game with five straight overs, the Cubs' six home runs on Tuesday night and Morton's shellacking by the Phillies in his most recent start, I really like this play and may add another unit tomorrow.
• Both pitchers have the capability to throw ground balls, keep the ball in the ballpark and get crucial double plays. Morton is second in the league with a GB/FB of 3.3, but at home it's over 4. Garza rocks a 1.65 GB/FB, but over 1.7 on the road. I don't expect six home runs on Wednesday like we saw in the previous game, because I think both pitchers force some easy ground ball outs.
• Both pitchers also have solid advanced stats. Morton has a FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA in the high 3's or low 4's, whereas Garza is a stud in the 3.1's. Plus, both pitchers have really high BABIP's over 3, but Morton is even higher at home and Garza higher on the road. This tells me both pitchers have been a bit unlucky in those situations and things will start to fall their way in the 2h of the season. With both pitchers having relatively low LOB%, I think we see better performances out of both pitchers over the next couple months and those solid performances should start Wednesday.
• Everyone will be pounding the over in this one based on both teams' recent big totals, however, the stats don't show that either team has really been hitting all that well over the last 1o games or so.
• Davidson is the ump assigned to this game and with his solid under lean and 63.5% strike rate, I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Braves -1 RL (-125) 1x (Locked)

About to hit the hay...super tired. However, this play is all about fading Wong in this spot and supporting Beachy. I just don't think the Braves get swept in this spot. Perhaps I will drop some more notes on this one tomorrow. GL.

Added 0.50x to Play #1 for total of 1.5x Cubs/Pirates under (7.5)(Locked)

The books are starting to juice the under just as I predicted...big RLM with 85% on the over.

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/2/11

Play #1

Cubs/Pirates under (7.5) 1.5x (Locked)

• Despite both teams coming into this game with five straight overs, the Cubs' six home runs on Tuesday night and Morton's shellacking by the Phillies in his most recent start, I really like this play and may add another unit tomorrow.
• Both pitchers have the capability to throw ground balls, keep the ball in the ballpark and get crucial double plays. Morton is second in the league with a GB/FB of 3.3, but at home it's over 4. Garza rocks a 1.65 GB/FB, but over 1.7 on the road. I don't expect six home runs on Wednesday like we saw in the previous game, because I think both pitchers force some easy ground ball outs.
• Both pitchers also have solid advanced stats. Morton has a FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA in the high 3's or low 4's, whereas Garza is a stud in the 3.1's. Plus, both pitchers have really high BABIP's over 3, but Morton is even higher at home and Garza higher on the road. This tells me both pitchers have been a bit unlucky in those situations and things will start to fall their way in the 2h of the season. With both pitchers having relatively low LOB%, I think we see better performances out of both pitchers over the next couple months and those solid performances should start Wednesday.
• Everyone will be pounding the over in this one based on both teams' recent big totals, however, the stats don't show that either team has really been hitting all that well over the last 1o games or so.
• Davidson is the ump assigned to this game and with his solid under lean and 63.5% strike rate, I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Braves -1 RL (-125) 1x (Locked)

About to hit the hay...super tired. However, this play is all about fading Wong in this spot and supporting Beachy. I just don't think the Braves get swept in this spot. Perhaps I will drop some more notes on this one tomorrow. GL.

Play #3

Twins ML (-105) 1x (Locked)

Off to work, so I cannot give you a full writeup but I am backing Baker in this spot and fading Pineiro. Many reasons for this and I will try to get you some more analysis before the game starts. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

I really regret not making the Cubs under a 2x play right off the bat. Both my locals are at -115 or -120 juice on the under now. Assuming it stays that way, I will beat the closer again but I regret not making this a bigger play. Let's keep an eye on this one. If we still see continued RLM, I may just add to my stake despite the increased juice.

[Love The Action]

Why is the price dropping on the Braves? Who is backing Wang in this spot?

Damn...I wish I would have waited but I thought for sure the price would only have gone up a bit. There is still time, but this early action on the Natties concerns me. Can they really sweep the Braves with Wang on the mound? I just don't see it....

[Love The Action]

I am looking hard at the Phillies tonight. Perhaps a ML parlay with Shields and TB....? Just throwing out some thoughts here. Off to work. Good luck to everyone today!

[blumpkin]

that was kendricks last start for now and it was a good one. hes going back into the bullpen to make way for oswalt.

[JNic]

GL with the twins today, I like it

[Love The Action]

Added to Play #1 0.50x for total of 2x Cubs/Pirates under (7.5) (1.5x at -110 and 0.50x at -115)(Locked)

More movement on the under so I'm locking the extra half unit in now before both my locals go to -120. I really like this play. Hopefully, the cubs bullpen and defense don't blow it...

[Redscot]

Tough break in the Zona game bud. Those breaks have a way of evening out so we'll just say we have one on credit for now.

Kendrick puzzles the shit out of me. Dude has NO out pitch, and can't get lefties out to save his life, yet is on a really nice roll. I am sorry but I am still not a believer. Almost 90% lob against lefties and a babip of like .240.

Hard to not like the Phil's with that pitching match-up and the Rox in a funk, will have to get creative to find some value. Cincy remains pretty reasonably priced imo against the AAA Stros. Had my eye on Minny as well. Nat's are tough at home, but can't fault you on the Wang fade.

GL today man, look forward to seeing what else you have.

[Love The Action]

I really think philly rolls today and starting to look at the over as well. Phillies should rock Hammel.

[Love The Action]

Line moving against the cubs under...may have to buy out of this one a bit....lets see what happens later today.

[Love The Action]

Looking hard at a philly/oakland ml parlay. Thoughts?

[No coincidences]

Why is the price dropping on the Braves? Who is backing Wang in this spot?

Damn...I wish I would have waited but I thought for sure the price would only have gone up a bit. There is still time, but this early action on the Natties concerns me. Can they really sweep the Braves with Wang on the mound? I just don't see it....

I think it's just the books making us overthink. No reason whatsoever to take the Nats because Wang is horrible -- then again, I also personally thought it was way too much juice to be laying with Beachy on the road. GL LTA.

[blackeyeshamus]

good call on the atlanta braves runline!
good luck today! good karma! thanks.

[JR007]

gascans Morton and Garza (road) going tonight

[Love The Action]

gascans Morton and Garza (road) going tonight

Dig deeper into the advanced stats...morton not that bad especially against righties who is all the cubs have.

Interesting "pricepoint" at pinny... Back and forth between -123 and -124 with no move to 8 despite 95% on the over. Hmmm... Early rlm as well...

[Love The Action]

ML action parlay ( win or lose not for records)

Oakland/Philly 0.50x to win 0.75x

Good luck!

[Love The Action]

I really think philly rolls today and starting to look at the over as well. Phillies should rock Hammel.

Kicking myself for not playing the philly over...

[HOT WINGS]

Kicking myself for not playing the philly over...

Sometimes it just looks too easy and scares you off. Good luck on rest of your card. I have a lean on Pitt Over, but you make some valid arguments for the under there. I probably will just lay off.

[Love The Action]

ML action parlay ( win or lose not for records)

Oakland/Philly 0.50x to win 0.75x

Good luck!

Gio blows...walks killing him. Need to get really lucky to cash this par...

[Love The Action]

Sometimes it just looks too easy and scares you off. Good luck on rest of your card. I have a lean on Pitt Over, but you make some valid arguments for the under there. I probably will just lay off.

If pinny, greek and matchbook move to 8, I will probably buy out of that under. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

If pinny, greek and matchbook move to 8, I will probably buy out of that under. Good luck.

Huge rlm in that cubbies under...everyone back down to 7.5 despite 95% of all bets on the over...I'm back in love with this play as long as the total stays at 7.5...wish I would have waited and locked it in at 8 though...

[Love The Action]

Looking at one more play backing my boy stauffer and the padres ml...probably won't lock it until later though...bol...

[blumpkin]

LTA thoughts on reds tt over 4.5. thats what im liking tonight.

[Love The Action]

LTA thoughts on reds tt over 4.5. thats what im liking tonight.

On its face, it looks like a solid play. However, Lyles has the unfamiliarity factor working in his favor because the reds have not faced him before. Plus, his advanced stats really aren't that bad. Plus his splits are good against lefties and the reds bats are led by lefties. I don't play tt because my locals don't offer them, but this might be one of those plays that seems too easy but really isn't. The total in that one is a pass for me but I do lean under there. Good luck in whatever you decide

[blumpkin]

my local has chi/pitt under 7.5 -105 was -110 all day

[Love The Action]

my local has chi/pitt under 7.5 -105 was -110 all day

Thanks for the info!

Every once in awhile, you have to step out on a play and take a stand...I really like the under in the that cubs game. I could be dead wrong, but the market stayed at 7.5 all day or came back down recently. Either way, the whole world is on the over and the line moves support tge under. I'm sticking with the under for 2x...

Bol tonight