Thanks guys...nice start to our day...one more left to make it a monster. Good luck to everyone tonight.
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MLB Recap 7/29/11
1 - 3 = -2x
MLB Recap 7/30/11
3 - 2 = +1x
MLB Recap 7/31/11 (Cubs/Cardinals under pending)
5 - 0 = +5.8x
MLB Season 2011 (Cubs/Cardinals under pending)
307 - 281 = +24.875x
Let's cash this Cubs/Cards under to get over the +25x mark for the first time since early July. We were at +40x heading into July and took a beating all month back down to the +20x mark...let's end July by turning the tables and getting back some of our earned profit. Good luck tonight gentlemen.Comment -
lta going for the sweep
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Cubs/Cards under.......Im on it!!!!Be watchin Breaking Bad instead but will check at commercials!!!!Good luck and nice day!!!!!!!!
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Have an interesting lean for tomorrow on Houston ML...just don't know if I can put my money on a triple AAA team despite the starting pitching disparity.Comment -
i rather record that shit or wait till later in the week when it on demand....i hate commercials...Great fukkin show tho...would kill for some of Walts blue shit!!!
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LTA ive seen a lot of colors but never that shade of sexy light blue Walt be cooking up.Comment -
1st forum tag i ever went by was SpdFrkFrmStl
think you can figure it out...
not so much anymore tho cause it all sucks now. bunch of homecooked BS...now i get by on addys.Comment -
MLB 8/1/11
Play #1
Padres/Dodgers under (6) 1x (Locked)- Luebke v. Kershaw
- Luebke - I have not been a believer in Luebke and refused to back him until this game. This will be his seventh start and I'm going to give him a shot here. The guy has great numbers so far with a FIP of 2.80, xFIP of 2.89, tERA of 2.73 and a SIERA of 2.61. These are top 10 MLB numbers, but again, this former Supplemental First Round Pick from 2007, has only 6 starts so far this year and his BABIP is really low at .240 overall and .228 on the road. However, with a K% of 28%, a WHIP of .095 and a GB/FB, I think he limits the puchless Dodgers on Monday (Dodgers hitting .202 against lefties L10). Lifetime, the Dodgers lineup is only hitting .105 against Luebke in 19 AB's.
- Kershaw is stud. Even though the Padres hit better against lefties, I don't think they touch Kershaw tomorrow. Kershaw has limited the Padres lineup to a .226 lifetime average in 93 AB's. Kershaw is a top 10 MLB guy in FIP with a 2.40, xFIP with a 2.65, tERA with a 2.45 and SIERA with a 2.58 plus a K% of 28.6% and a WHIP of 1.04. Based on the foregoing, I don't expect the Padres to get much Kershaw.
- Chavez-Ravine is one of the better pitchers parks and I expect a 3-1 type game with the Dodgers winning.
- Even though the Padres traded Adams, they kept Bell and still have a top 5 bullpen and remain a top 15 MLB fielding team. Their offense of course, was not improved by trades and remain the 29th ranked offense in the league.
- The Dodgers have top 15 MLB bullpen and defense, with an offense that is around 25th in the league.
- Based on the combination of superior starting pitching, solid bullpens, solid defense and weak offense, I think we cash this low-total under. Plus, the rest of the market is at 5.5 with juice on the over and one of my locals as 6 at (-110) odds so I like that number and figured I would jump on it now in case I can't get this number later on Monday. I like the under in this spot for 1x. GL.
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MLB Season 2011
307 - 282 = +23.775x
A 9th inning Soriano home run ends our bid for a 6 - 0 day for the last day of July, but we'll certainly take a 5 - 1 day. We move onto Monday expecting big things for August and our first play in the above Padres/Dodgers under. I also really like the Astros ML, but need to look into who the Astros have left on the field and what happens with the line. The price has alread dropped about 4 cents on the Stros, so it seems as though early money agrees with me.
This is our record going into the first play for Monday. GL.
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i like Luebke's stuff and few guys i know speak highly of him. he has been brought along pretty well and i expected him to struggle in phi as that was the 1st abv avg lineup he has saw in the 1st non-pitcher friendly park then he young and didnt bounce back well against zona ,but i agree he should be back in his comfort zone and limit lad not so hot offense. Then on the other side as always "in Kershaw i trust", he has been very good at Petco (as expected) if we get a good ump id like to play neither to score 3 prop at +450 then also Lad to score 1st 3, along with under and prob un ff.Comment -
lta thanks for the kc play i really appreciate it,
i didn't sniff that one out
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Play #2
Diamondbacks/Giants under (6)(+100) 1x (Locked)
- Kennedy v. Cain. I'm a big fan of this pitching matchup. Two guys at 26 years old and pitching great. I'm jumping at this one at plus odds now rather than wait for a possible 6.5 that I do not think will materialize.
- Kennedy is pitching great with a FIP of 3.46, xFIP of 3.47, tERA of 4.24 and SIERA of 3.45, WHIP of 1.12, K% of 20.9, GB/FB over 1, LOB% over 76% and BAA of .225. Those numbers are extremely solid and when you add that to his dominating history against the Giants holding that lineup to a .181 BAA in 129 AB's (8 scoreless innings earlier this year), I don't see anything pointing to the over here. I don't think Kennedy is hurt pitching on the road in this start because San Francisco is generally a pitchers park.
- On the other side, Cain is one of the best as well with a FIP of 2.9, xFIP of 3.59, tERA of 3.31 and SIERA of 3.57. Cain also has a high K% over 19%, WHIP of 1.09, LOB of 72.6% and GB/FB over 1. He too has had success against Arizona in general holding that lineup to a .249 BAA in 229 AB's. Plus, in his last game he was knocked around a little bit in Arizona and I expect revenge to play a factor here. Cain will be ready for this start.
- Even though AZ posts a top 10 offense, I think they are due for a regression without Drew. They have been on a tear with Upton and Young leading the way, however, Cain has limited Young to a BAA under .200 (Upton has hit him well though).
- Regardless, both the Giants and Diamondbacks rank top 10 in fielding and bullpen (AZ best ranked defense right now while Giants second best bullpen). I think this is a huge advantage. We always look for unders with weak hitting (see Giants ranked bottom 20's) good bullpens and good fielding. We have all those factors in this game and I'm rolling under for 1x at plus odds. GL.
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No problem bud...glad I could help you make some money
FYI...keep an eye on the Astros ML tomorrow. They are my dog of the day. I want to see who their lineup is going to feature but I am pretty sure to play them, especially if we see some RLM (which we already have dropping the Stros price 4 cents despite the majority on Cincy early). Good luck on all your plays tomorrow!Comment -
i gotta look at how hou does 1st gm back home w/o day off, in my mind i always hate that spot after a decent sized trip (like always i dont have numbers on it just the way i feel about it, some teams much better at this than most)....im in your boat i need to figure out who hou be playing but cincy heating up and are not out of this race. Arroyo for all his fadibility could limit this offense and the only time i truly trust Bud is when he is pitching against STL. sometimes just because "sharps" moving line against the majority it doesnt make them right and actually creates value on the better team.....stilll way early and i havnt looked at a ton of stuff yet..
sorry to highjack up in your thread but my brain started churning when i started reading.Comment -
got zona/sf un wrote down as well. but also was considering zona, think it a decent spot with them playing well and already being on the coast while sf been in cincy....Comment -
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Damn man, you were all over that card! Looks like you are getting locked in with lots of time left in the season. Here's hoping to a great August and September LTA. Keep up the great work.
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I am leanin Under in that Stros/Reds game i think Norris will hold
his own and Arroyo has done well vs. the Stros in the past. Any
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fta, there is mild rlm in that Stros game, lets see how it
plays out. Public pounding Cincy
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Congrats LTA, I'm on a break from MLB but it's always good to check in & see you doing well. 5-1 is outstanding work!
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Good luck but be careful, gambling is streaky......when you win five or six in a row.....the tendency is to start splitting games........then the losing streak starts.......FOR THE KIDDIES OUT THERE WHO THINK THIS IS EASY MONEY...IT ISN'T,
FROM THE OLD MAN IN THE FORUM
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Keep up the good work LTA.
Also, for those handicapping newbies out there, some of these games you can throw out the window today because of the trades that were just made. Focus for a few days on the games with teams who haven't made any major changes. I'm not as old as JR but I've seen a lot in my lifetime!
Good luck to everyone today.Comment -
Thanks Roag!!!! not on viagra just yet but getting there
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So true...but as you know I only make picks according to where my model and capped lines find some value.
I would say that July was a very rough month and variance is far overdue in bringing me some winners. Nevertheless, one good day means nothing. Its all about the long term and anything can happen. I remember last nba season on one day I went 6-0 and the very next day I went 1-4 so the irony involved with sports investing is not lost on me.
However, I just try to stay consistent, follow my model and capping process and be humble and conservative. That is the only way to profit long term that I know of. Good luck to everyone today!
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