LTA's MLB Plays

**Love The Action** · 07-30-11, 05:07 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 7/30/11

Play #1

Giants ML(+108) 1.5x (Locked)

Play #2

Marlins/Braves under (7)(+105) 1.5x (Locked)

Play #3

Minny/Oakland over (8)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Play #4

Royals/Indians under (7.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Here are some notes on the games:

Giants ML -

Baumgarner is top 20 in advanced stats. Although Leake is pitching well this year, I think Baumgarner limits a struggling Reds lineups. Baumgarner has been hot and I expect that to continue tonight.
The Giants offense is getting better and their recent additions to the lineup will only help. Leake has a poor history against this lineup with a BAA over .340 against Leake lifetime and he has a poor career record against the Giants. I think that trend continues today.
With the Giants superior defense and bullpen, I give the edge to the Giants and loved getting them at +108.

Marlins/Braves under -

Both pitchers have awesome FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERRA numbers. Plus, they both throw ground balls with GB/FB over 1.5 or even 2 in the case of Hudson. Sanchez is a monster this year and his advanced stats are top 10 in some categories. He has a great K% and I just think Sanchez comes ready for the challenge against Hudson. Sanchez has struggled recently and I expect a big bounceback tonight.
Both teams have great bullpens (Braves top 5 with Marlins top 11) and are weaker hitting teams. Those are the formulas I like for the under.
The wind is expected to blow across the field, which will not help homeruns.
Culbreth has a 63.9% strike rate with an runs/game average under 8.

Minny/Oakland over -

Moscoso is one of the biggest frauds out there with tricky stats. His ERA and WHIP are respectable but he has horrible advanced stats with a FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA above 4 or even 5 in some categories. Plus, he has a GB/FB under .6, which means he is not throwing any ground balls. Finally, his BABIP shows he has clearly been getting lucky and is due for a huge regression. We cashed the over in his last game and plan on cashing another today.
Blackburn has struggled lately and turned a nice start of the season into a poor one so far. His advanced stats are poor and he is not throwing as many groundballs as he once did. With how hot Oakland is hitting, I think we see a lot of runs from both teams.
Huge over ump in this one with Conroy 9-1 o/u this and his low strike rate and 13 run/game average.

Royals/Indians under -

Paulino has great numbers and so does Masterson. I think Masterson keeps it low scoring against that highly effective Royals offense and Paulino dominates the weak hitting Indians who have been decimated by injuries. The Indians have been one of the best under teams recently and I'm rolling that way again tonight with these two pitchers dealing.
The wind is also blowing cross field in this game as well.
The ump, Diaz, has a 64% strike rate with a runs/game average under 7, for a nice under lean.

**Love The Action** · 07-30-11, 05:37 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 7/30/11

Play #1

Giants ML(+108) 1.5x (Locked)

Baumgarner is top 20 in advanced stats. Although Leake is pitching well this year, I think Baumgarner limits a struggling Reds lineups. Baumgarner has been hot and I expect that to continue tonight.
The Giants offense is getting better and their recent additions to the lineup will only help. Leake has a poor history against this lineup with a BAA over .340 against Leake lifetime and he has a poor career record against the Giants. I think that trend continues today.
With the Giants superior defense and bullpen, I give the edge to the Giants and loved getting them at +108.

Play #2

Marlins/Braves under (7)(+105) 1.5x (Locked)

Both pitchers have awesome FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERRA numbers. Plus, they both throw ground balls with GB/FB over 1.5 or even 2 in the case of Hudson. Sanchez is a monster this year and his advanced stats are top 10 in some categories. He has a great K% and I just think Sanchez comes ready for the challenge against Hudson. Sanchez has struggled recently and I expect a big bounceback tonight.
Both teams have great bullpens (Braves top 5 with Marlins top 11) and are weaker hitting teams. Those are the formulas I like for the under.
The wind is expected to blow across the field, which will not help homeruns.
Culbreth has a 63.9% strike rate with an runs/game average under 8.

Play #3

Minny/Oakland over (8)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Moscoso is one of the biggest frauds out there with tricky stats. His ERA and WHIP are respectable but he has horrible advanced stats with a FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA above 4 or even 5 in some categories. Plus, he has a GB/FB under .6, which means he is not throwing any ground balls. Finally, his BABIP shows he has clearly been getting lucky and is due for a huge regression. We cashed the over in his last game and plan on cashing another today.
Blackburn has struggled lately and turned a nice start of the season into a poor one so far. His advanced stats are poor and he is not throwing as many groundballs as he once did. With how hot Oakland is hitting, I think we see a lot of runs from both teams.
Huge over ump in this one with Conroy 9-1 o/u this and his low strike rate and 13 run/game average.

Play #4

Royals/Indians under (7.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Paulino has great numbers and so does Masterson. I think Masterson keeps it low scoring against that highly effective Royals offense and Paulino dominates the weak hitting Indians who have been decimated by injuries. The Indians have been one of the best under teams recently and I'm rolling that way again tonight with these two pitchers dealing.
The wind is also blowing cross field in this game as well.
The ump, Diaz, has a 64% strike rate with a runs/game average under 7, for a nice under lean.

Play #5

Mets -1 RL (0.50x ML (-125) & 0.50x -1.5 RL (+130))

I would have never made this play before Marquis was traded, however, now it's a no brainer with Maya filling in.
Dickey has a FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA all under 3.9, with a GB/FB of 1.62. He's not lucky either with a .290 BABIP. Plus, I just checked his splits and his numbers are slightly better on the road than at home. Therefore, I don't that this being a road game hurts Dickey here and may even help.
On the other side Yunesky Maya sucks with a FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA in the 5 or even 6 range. He barely is above 1 with respect to GB/FB so you know he will give up some home runs when you combine that poor GB/FB with a HR/FB of 12.5%.
The Mets have a top 10 offense with the 4th best road record in the MLB. These guys are road warriors and are killing the ball right now.
The Natties are ranked about 23 in offense with a nice home record of 28-22, but they are streaking downward having lost 5 in a row.
I just think with the Mets red hot offense and a scuffling Washington offense that may be hurt mentally by this trade, you have to go with the Mets here. We cashed on the Mets -1RL yesterday, so let's do it again. I'm betting the Mets extend their win streak to 6 games tonight and I'm rolling with the Mets -1 RL for 1x. GL.

**NBA_Brosuf** · 07-30-11, 06:14 PM

yehhhhhhh

Lets go Mets

**Love The Action** · 07-30-11, 06:58 PM

Fvcking three run homers killing us...

First Werth hits a three run home off Dickey to put us behind 3-0 in that one and then Uggla hits a three run homer on a 0-0 score in the third inning to put our under in real jeopardy after looking good through 3 innings...

Going to need some luck here...

**Love The Action** · 07-30-11, 10:24 PM

Damn...would have been 3-1 today if I didn't add that Mets play on after the pitching change. Can't believe Maya and that bullpen shut them out...oh well, we were still 3-2 to grind out 1x of profit on the day...

**Love The Action** · 07-31-11, 06:30 AM

MLB 7/31/11

Play #1

Angels/Tigers under (6.5)(-120) 1.5x (Locked)

Play #2

Marlins/Braves under (7.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Same as yesterday....we will lock in our plays first and then circle back for writeups and analysis. Happy Sunday and good luck on everyones plays.

**BiffTFinancial** · 07-31-11, 06:44 AM

like the Marlins/Braves under, LTA, BOL to you today.

**Love The Action** · 07-31-11, 07:05 AM

Originally posted by BiffTFinancial

like the Marlins/Braves under, LTA, BOL to you today.

Same to you Biff...let's get it!

**Love The Action** · 07-31-11, 07:45 AM

I'm seeing a big under lean from on of my local books that takes leans on totals which I have mentioned in the past. The whole market is at 8 in the Wash/NYM game, however, he has it set at 7.5 with juice on the over. Generally, when this happens, the leans are hitting at about 63%. Despite Zimmerman's rough last two starts, I do lean under in this one so keep your eye on the line and watch where the market takes that one.

**GoggsViggs** · 07-31-11, 09:02 AM

Thanks bro. Same to you. Good thing my CFL and WNBA picks came thru for me last night. Liking the Lynx and unders for min/SA, Atl/conn games today.

**GoggsViggs** · 07-31-11, 09:05 AM

Originally posted by BiffTFinancial

like the Marlins/Braves under, LTA, BOL to you today.

Yup. Like this one too.

**Love The Action** · 07-31-11, 09:34 AM

I think I may play the Royals ML today

**Love The Action** · 07-31-11, 09:39 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 7/31/11

Play #1

Angels/Tigers under (6.5)(-120) 1.5x (Locked)

Play #2

Marlins/Braves under (7.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Play #3

Royals ML (+125) 1x (Locked)

**pacocn** · 07-31-11, 09:50 AM

lta big over ump in seattle today any thoughts?

**Love The Action** · 07-31-11, 09:55 AM

Originally posted by pacocn

lta big over ump in seattle today any thoughts?

I have a strong over lean in that game. Not only does DeMuth lean over (although he does have a 63% strike rate and I prefer 62% or lower for an over), but both pitchers are in the process of regressing. Hellickson is due for a big time regression and Vargas is in the midst of it right now. That might be a play. However, I am always hesitate of taking an over between these two teams. Good luck if you play it!

**Love The Action** · 07-31-11, 10:07 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 7/31/11

Play #1

Angels/Tigers under (6.5)(-120) 1.5x (Locked)

Play #2

Marlins/Braves under (7.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Play #3

Royals ML (+125) 1x (Locked)

There is the card so far. Here are my remaining leans:

Mets/Natties under (probably playing for sure)
TB/Seattle over
Colorado/SD over
Oakland ML
White Sox ML
Cubs/Cardinals under
Pirates/Philly over
Reds -1 RL
Yankess -1 RL

**pacocn** · 07-31-11, 10:11 AM

Lta, big over ump in dodger game today
might be worth taking a look.

**pacocn** · 07-31-11, 10:22 AM

lta i am tailing you on that Kc pick lets get em

**Love The Action** · 07-31-11, 10:22 AM

Originally posted by pacocn

Lta, big over ump in dodger game today
might be worth taking a look.

Thanks for the tip! Hobrook is one of my favorite over guys...I have been a fan of Rubby though and Saunders wrecked an over play for me not too long ago...we'll see. GL...

**HOT WINGS** · 07-31-11, 10:22 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

There is the card so far. Here are my remaining leans:

Mets/Natties under (probably playing for sure)
TB/Seattle over
Colorado/SD over
Oakland ML
White Sox ML
Cubs/Cardinals under
Pirates/Philly over
Reds -1 RL
Yankess -1 RL

Good luck on Braves under as well. Trying to talk myself into taking Royals again. Kind of bitter about there loss last night as I had them on the ML. Only good thing is I had them Friday as well when they won 12-0

Good luck on Under in Tigers I like that play as well. I took Tigers ML and I never take and under in a game where I have a side but it is damn tempting

**pacocn** · 07-31-11, 10:23 AM

lta and u r right there are many things i like about it

**Love The Action** · 07-31-11, 10:32 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 7/31/11

Play #1

Angels/Tigers under (6.5)(-120) 1.5x (Locked)

Play #2

Marlins/Braves under (7.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Play #3

Royals ML (+125) 1x (Locked)

Play #4

Mets/Nationals under (8)(-115) 1x (Locked)

**Love The Action** · 07-31-11, 10:51 AM

Originally posted by pacocn

lta i am tailing you on that Kc pick lets get em

Let's do it!

**Love The Action** · 07-31-11, 10:52 AM

Originally posted by HOT WINGS

Good luck on Braves under as well. Trying to talk myself into taking Royals again. Kind of bitter about there loss last night as I had them on the ML. Only good thing is I had them Friday as well when they won 12-0

Good luck on Under in Tigers I like that play as well. I took Tigers ML and I never take and under in a game where I have a side but it is damn tempting

Good luck!

**Love The Action** · 07-31-11, 11:00 AM

Zito has piss poor history against the Reds and they have killed lefties all year. Not sure I can stay away from playing the Reds today on the -1 RL, even though I hate backing teams going for the sweep. Especially against solid team like the Giants, but there is a pretty big disparity in pitching today.

**Love The Action** · 07-31-11, 11:49 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 7/31/11

Play #1

Angels/Tigers under (6.5)(-120) 1.5x (Locked)

Play #2

Marlins/Braves under (7.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Play #3

Royals ML (+125) 1x (Locked)

Play #4

Mets/Nationals under (8)(-115) 1x (Locked)

Play #5

Reds -1 RL (0.40x ML (-150) 0.50x -1.5 RL (+140))

**Love The Action** · 07-31-11, 12:21 PM

I really think Worley is due to regress for Philly and Karstens will as well. I want to take the Philly/Pit over, but I hate the old 8.5 over trap. If it was still at 8, I would pull the trigger.

**Love The Action** · 07-31-11, 03:01 PM

We hit our first two games with the Tigers under and Reds -1RL. Now, let's get the Natties under, Marlins under and Royals ML plays for a 5-0 day!

I lean to the Mariners over, Colorado over and Oakland ML. However, I'm not playing them. I am going to wait out the end of my three pending plays and hope to get lucky. Might have a play on the Cubs under tonight.

**JR007** · 07-31-11, 03:33 PM

Good start, good luck !!!!!!!!!!!

**BiffTFinancial** · 07-31-11, 03:52 PM

5-0, great day LTA

**pacocn** · 07-31-11, 04:17 PM

fta nice work

**investing4us** · 07-31-11, 04:22 PM

Great way to the end the ugly July for you.

**NBA_Brosuf** · 07-31-11, 04:38 PM

Hot diggity dynamite...

LTA for president.

**JR007** · 07-31-11, 04:46 PM

**Love The Action** · 07-31-11, 04:46 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 7/31/11

Play #1

Angels/Tigers under (6.5)(-120) 1.5x (Locked)

Play #2

Marlins/Braves under (7.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Play #3

Royals ML (+125) 1x (Locked)

Play #4

Mets/Nationals under (8)(-115) 1x (Locked)

Play #5

Reds -1 RL (0.40x ML (-150) 0.50x -1.5 RL (+140))

Play #6

Cubs/Cardinals under (8)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I have to roll with the under in tonight's ESPN Sunday GOW. Even though Dempster has a poor history against the Cards, he has nice advanced stats on the year including an FIP, xFIP and SIERA in the 3.5 range and a BABIP over .330 which shows the Cubs defense has killed him. He has a K% over 22% showing he can get the crucial strikeouts and will get groundballs as well with a GB/FB of 1.3%. His stats away from Wrigley are not quite as good, but he still has an xFIP of 3.6 and a K% over 20% (with a better GB/FB on the road as well). On the other side, Westbrook has a respectable defense independent stats with a xFIP and SIERA under 3.7 and throws a ton of ground balls with a GB/FB over 2.5. His xFIP and GB/FB stats are slightly better at home as well where his .333 BABIP tells me some balls should start bouncing his way at Busch Stadium. Even though the Cardinals can explode and the Cubs are joke (crap bullpen and defense), I'm going to ride the RLM in this one that has seen the total drop from 8.5 despite 70% of all bets on the over. I think this one sets up as a nice public fade and I'm rolling with the under for 1x.