For that Brewers play, I just think, much like Redscot and I have mentioned throughout the day, that Greinke is due for some big time success on the road. Arizona is not at full strength as they lost their starting shortstop in Stephen Drew for the season just yesterday and will have a very difficult time replacing him. Shortstop is one of the most important positions on the diamond as it is crucial to not only have a great hitting shortstop in this new baseball age, but also to have a great defense up the middle. Without Drew, a guy who has hit Greinke better than any other AZ player, the Dbacks should struggle offensively today. Even though Greinke has a poor ERA at 5.02, he is rocking advanced stats that show his ERA is due primarily to bad luck and bad defense. Greinke has a FIP, xFIP and tERA in the top 30 of the league...however, his FIP of 2.14 is actually the best in baseball right now. That's right, Zack Greinke has the best FIP of any starter out there. In addtion, his BABIP of .343 and a LOB% of 55%, show that he is due to regress to the league average over this second half of the season and his standard numbers such as ERA will continue to get better. I mean, come on, the guy averages over 12 K/9 (that is also ranked first in the league) while Kennedy is good at 7.5 K/9 but not at the Greinke level. Bottom line is that Greinke should dominate moving forward and I expect that dominance to begin tonight. On the other side, Kennedy had a nice start, but I expect some regression in his performance. Kennedy sports an FIP, xFIP and tERA in the top 60 -110 of the league, but his BABIP of .264 and LOB% of 76% are evidence that the regression I referenced is on its way. I could go on and on about how Greinke has either not faced or dominated the AZ lineup in the past and Kennedy has struggled big time against the Brewers big bats, but I will just wrap this up -- since the game has already started -- and state that I think the Brewers win this one pretty easy. I expect the Brewers to be a team to back moving forward and AZ to be a team to fade in certain spots because of the loss of Drew. I'm rolling Brewers here for 1x. Good luck.
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We need some more timely hitting here from the brewers. Greinke needs to control Young and Upton for the rest of the game or the Brewers will lose.Comment -
Just pathetic offensive performance by the Brewers through 6 innings....Comment -
Damn...too many wasted opportunities by the Brewers...onto tomorrow, possible +4x day turns into a +0.94x day...Comment -
MLB Recap 7/21/11
2 - 3 = +0.94x
MLB Season 2011
286 - 263 = +27.89
Another profitable day, even if just for the almost 1x profit. The Brewers loss pisses me off, but we simply file it away and move on. I'm going to bed and will look at have a play on Bud Norris in the early game against the Cubs tomorrow for my first play. We'll see...Comment -
Keep up the good work ltaComment -
God the Brewers laid an egg
. Greinke was Greinke of this year. Pretty much dominant numbers but his fb/hr % is nutz!
As you say LTA, gonna put it behind me, but that play hurt.
BOL today bro
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Brewers didnt lay an egg...they suck.
they can not manufacture runs. Weeks is a joke leading off... Mghee is average. all you have is the FATMAN and BRAUN...
Pitch the FATMAN high and hard.....and just walk Braun.....
Game over....
Ok..Corey Hart....when has he gotten a hit that meant a damn. ok he had one walk off or something about a month ago...yeah
The Brewers are average at best....to bet them last night vs the BACKS was a joke. IAN is actually pretty good. that was an EASY play last night on the BACKS
you cant bet games on teams that can not put two singles together and the Brewers are just that...Comment -
Sure looks that way now, no doubt, You make some valid points but the Brew Crew have scored the 5th most runs in the NL and sport the 2nd best OPS in the NL, so their offense isn't totally the way you paint it. Greinke pitched pretty well all in all, definitely was a winnable game. Doesn't look like a good play today, I grant you, but to say it was a joke goes too far imo.
Anyway, Bol in your plays to day Homosaywhat.
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Generally, if you are going to make such strong statements, I would appreciate that you do so before the game starts. To criticize a play a day later is weak in my opinion. I would have been happy to debate your position on the brewers offense before the game, because the stats clearly show you to be wrong. However, I think your late criticism is simply sour grapes. Good luck in the future, but you should know the brewers are top 8 in most offensive categories in the entire mlb. If you have any data to back up your position, please share. However, I am certain you do not. Bol.Comment -
We have been profitable four out of the last five days in MLB. I feel a heater coming here after a tough beginning to July. WNBA is on break until Tuesday of next week, so I can concentrate solely on MLB.
I had a late start looking at today's card. To be honest, I don't really like it. No plays as of yet.
Perhaps a small under play might be warranted in the early game between Cubs/Stros, but let's see what the total opens at, what the weather is and all the other variables that come into a total in Wrigley. However, I do not forsee any other profitable under plays on the board today. Therefore, we will be looking for some profitable over plays, ML plays and perhaps a -1RL play.
I will not be taking the Astros ML. Even with Norris, I think Zambrano might just come to pitch today after getting embarrassed in his first two starts off the DL. I think Zambrano's ability as a hitter must also be factored into a possible under play. The guy can rake.
This will be an interesting day...no big plays though. GL to all today!Comment -
Hey LTA, I mostly stay in Dex's thread but been reading yours the past few weeks. what do you think about my leans in these games: I was leaning SD/Philly U7.5, Atl ML-120, LAA/Bal U9, CWS/Clev 08.5, and TB ML-115. Any thoughts on these?Comment -
I would lean over in every game on the board (except for maybe Cubs/Stros), I can tell you that. Hamels has not been the same pitcher lately and Luebke cannot be trusted in my opinion. The Padres have actually been a solid over bet recently as Veneble has been a huge sparkplug in the leadoff position and the team's bats on the whole have woken up. The Phillies have a dangerous lineup, especially for an unproven guy like Luebke.
Tough to bet against Jurrjjens. I like that one.
Why under in the LAA/Bal game?
CWS/Clev over looks good on its face, but I have not had a chance to cap the game fully.
No real lean on the TB/KC game yet. I need to look at the advanced stats. On its face, TB may look like the play. However, I believe Hochevaar is a good ground ball pitcher (don't quote me just yet) and KC has a dangerous offense. TB just had to travel and a letdown after their big win over the Yanks could be in order. That's just the other argument to TB, not a lean on KC.
As I said, earlier, I can't really back any unders today. I just locked my first play on the Tex/Tor over in and will post that one now. Good luck on whatever you choose...I hope you cash them all!
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MLB 7/22/11
Play #1
Toronto/Texas over (10)(-115) 1x (Locked)
Running late, so here it is in a nutshell:
Both Lewis and Reyes are fly ball pitchers in a park that is not conducive to fly ball pitchers. Colby Lewis did well in his last start, but that was against Seattle in the midst of their offensive slump. This is against a top 8 MLB offensive team. Lewis has a .60 GB/FB ratio which is pathetic. His other advanced stats are not better than top 100. I see no way he limits a hot Toronto offense that has Bautista back in the lineup. By the way, Bautista is hitting .500 off Lewis with 2HR in only 6 at bats so far in their matchups. Overall, Toronto has killed Lewis and is hitting .333 off him as a team. I expect Toronto to cross home plate early and often today. However, I expect the same from Texas. Reyes is not much better than Lewis, if at all. Here is a guy who has a GB/FB of .99, but only throws 12.7% of his pitches for strikes. I just don't see him limiting a Texas lineup that will be happy to be home and is coming off one of their worst performances of the year in getting shutout by the Angels and Weaver. Reyes has poor advanced stats, so it's not like he has been unlucky this year or a victim of bad defense. His FIP, xFIP and tERA and even SIERA is in the mid to high 4's. Finally, Texas is hitting .348 off Reyes as a team coming into this game and I expect that success to continue. I believe the weather is predicted to have wind blowing out in this game and that should only help the over with these two big time fly ball pitchers. At the end of the day, the total opened at 10 runs for a reason, with juice only going up since then. I think this one is going up to 10.5 relatively soon and I'm rolling with the over here for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
I love that Texas over boys...let's get it.
I probably will not have a real play on the early game between the Cubs/Stros. But it's Friday and I'm ready for some action. Maybe we make a $10 parlay wager on the Stros ML and the under (not for the records of course). What do you guys think? Or does anyone out there like the Cubs because of them opening up as such big faves?
Let's have a small action wager on the early game. Post your leans.Comment -
I am not very sophisticated and just look at era in the last 3 games and this season, then I just compare to what dex picks and a few others and go from there. I usually tail dex on many of his plays.
So to answer your questions on the angels/balt game. looking at era's averaging about 5-6 runs over last 3 games, and this season at about 7.5, I was leaning under.
Obviously I don't look at any of these games as in depth as you guys, and I am just learning things here and there, and keeping my wagers to 5-10 bucks to enjoy the thrill. But really enjoy reading the insights that many of you guys have out there.
Thanks for the info. Good luck today.
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We have one play on the rangers over.
Remaining leans:
Mets over
Braves ml
Diamondbacks ml
Seattle ml
TB/KC over (I am so pissed I got a late start capping because this would have been a play for sure at the opener of 8.5)Last edited by Love The Action; 07-22-11, 11:12 AM.Comment -
Minn/Det O8.5
Rox/DBacks O9Comment -
Is weather going to be a factor today LTA? You being in chi-town, how's that heat? Could definitely play a factor if it is as hot as they are saying. Will it wear out these two chunky starter's? Neither bullpen is very reliable with Houston's performing better of late.
This game would definitely be straight junkie for me, I am at a loss personally, lol.
Wish I was around earlier my local now up to 10 1/2 -115 on the Tex over.Last edited by Redscot; 07-22-11, 11:37 AM.Comment -
Another thing that stands out is Bud Norris' dominance of RHB's 10+ k/9ip and .184. Cubbies only starting two lefties today, actually 3 with Zambrano who can't be slept on with the stick as you mentioned.
Zambrano too fares better against righties, although less dramatic difference and the Stros only have two lefties going today as well.
Seems odd only 4 out of the possible 16 position players today are LHB's going against RHP's.Comment -
Play #2
Arizona -1RL 1x (0.50x ML (-170) & 0.50x -1.5RL (+130))
I won't bore you with the stats on this one, but there is a huge pitching disparity when it comes to standard or advanced stats. Even head to head, Hudson has held the Rox to a .209 BA and has an 2.08 ERA against them, while Cook has a 5.46 ERA against AZ and allowed a .278 BA. I think we see a blowout here and I'm rolling with AZ on tge -1RL for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
Play #3
Braves ML (-114) 0.75x (Locked)
Huge disparity in starting pitching in this one. However, Uggla is not playing and both Bruce and Votto have hit Jurrjens in the past, so I will just take this one for 0.75x. Good luck.
Play #4
Mets/Marlins over (9) 0.50x (Locked)
Both pitchers struggling right now. I expect a lot of runs, however, Volstad has a decent history against the Mets and has shut down Reyes in the past. Plus, he only threw about 50 pitches in his last start after getting shelled by the Cubs and he may be rested, throwing heat and looking to bounce back. I would take this one for more, but when you consider the success Volstad might have with the fact I didn't get this at the 8.5 opener, I think only a 0.50x play is warranted. Good luck.Last edited by Love The Action; 07-22-11, 06:01 PM.Comment -
Good luck!
I really want to take Seattle as well, but just can't back them right now with their bat so bad. However, I'm not sure you will see King Felix getting +139 in too many games so there is a TON of value there against a gascan in Lackey.Comment -
You got that right, I threw them into a tasty dog 3 team RR tonight for some chump change.
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Too much action if truth be told, had a great June and start to July, but this week has been my worst in a long time. The rational move would be to pull back a bit......yup
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On a positive note, I doubled up on the Mets upon seeing you on them as well, they have banged in 3 so far in the top of the first. Anything can happen, especially to me lately, but looks good.
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I know...I'm kicking myself for not hitting that one a lot harderToo much action if truth be told, had a great June and start to July, but this week has been my worst in a long time. The rational move would be to pull back a bit......yup.
On a positive note, I doubled up on the Mets upon seeing you on them as well, they have banged in 3 so far in the top of the first. Anything can happen, especially to me lately, but looks good.
Oh well, let's just cash these tickets!
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Ouch...first and second with no one out and the Braves could not score...double play and K kills them.Comment -
Good luck tonight...the right( pricepoint) like that word LTA...thanks......on the Mets overComment
Nice call, was never in doubt.