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  • mtcook21
    SBR Sharp
    • 05-01-11
    • 304

    #281
    really like Braves ML tomorrow. Already locked it in at +102. Line is already moving against them...
    Comment
    • Love The Action
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 11-08-10
      • 10952

      #282
      Originally posted by mtcook21
      really like Braves ML tomorrow. Already locked it in at +102. Line is already moving against them...
      Agreed...I just can't decide quite yet. When I bet against Colorado in Colorado, I like the starting pitcher to have a GB/FB ratio over 1.5 so I can depend on some ground balls and double plays. Unfortunately, Hanson is at 1.15. Earlier in the week, when we cashed the Braves and Derek Lowe, he was rocking a GB/FB over 2.

      I'm actually starting to like the under in this game as well, but I generally don't take unders in Colorado as a rule.
      Comment
      • Love The Action
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 11-08-10
        • 10952

        #283
        Originally posted by Love The Action
        Ouch...Haren just got rocked for five more...8-3...I expected a 4-2 type win by the Angels. Hopefully, they pull it with an explosion of runs. This was a fade of Holland as much as anything, so let's see if the Angels can get some of these back and win in a slugfest. It's only the fifth inning.
        Angels just had a big inning... 8-7 Rangers bottom of the sixth. Oh for the comeback win..after all the tough losses and pushes throughout July, just to get this one would be like lifting a weight off my shoulders and provide some confidence that the breaks will start to fall our way soon.
        Comment
        • gshock1
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 12-04-09
          • 5366

          #284
          Good call laying off the Braves today. I do think they get it done with Hanson tomorrow though. Pulling for the Angels tonight.
          Comment
          • Love The Action
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 11-08-10
            • 10952

            #285
            Originally posted by gshock1
            Good call laying off the Braves today. I do think they get it done with Hanson tomorrow though. Pulling for the Angels tonight.
            Yeah..I want to make it a big play, but it's not looking like it right now. Maybe a 1x play as of right now. I'll know more tomorrow.
            Comment
            • Love The Action
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 11-08-10
              • 10952

              #286
              MLB Recap 7/20/11

              3 - 1 = +3.25x

              MLB Season 2011

              284 - 260 = +26.95x

              Nice late come from behind winner with the Angels. Not a bad day and we'll take it after some tough breaks. Onto tomorrow and I love the card. Lets carry this momentum over into tomorrow and build a little streak here. GL...
              Last edited by Love The Action; 07-21-11, 06:36 AM.
              Comment
              • Love The Action
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 11-08-10
                • 10952

                #287
                MLB 7/21/11

                Play #1

                Yankees/TB under (7)(+100) 1x (Locked)

                Too tired for a writeup right now...need to get some sleep. Will try to post some thoughts in the morning. I will probably add an additional unit to this play, but wanted to ensure myself I at least get one unit down at plus odds. GL...
                Comment
                • Redscot
                  SBR MVP
                  • 05-16-11
                  • 2571

                  #288
                  Originally posted by Love The Action
                  I really like the braves ml tonight although it sure looks like a sucker bet to me...


                  Trust your instincts LTA, you are usually on the money.

                  Nice day, and the momentum is swinging in our favor.

                  BOL today , Gonna be on the road myself so gonna lock in some early plays and hope for the best.
                  Comment
                  • GoggsViggs
                    SBR MVP
                    • 06-05-10
                    • 1884

                    #289
                    Angels! Nice comeback win for you.
                    Comment
                    • Redscot
                      SBR MVP
                      • 05-16-11
                      • 2571

                      #290
                      Hey LTA, what do you make of Greinke's numbers? What an enigma, his stats are off the chart, yet he sports a 5 era! Only thing I can see is his really high hr/fb ratio, which you would think has to start lowering.
                      Comment
                      • Love The Action
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 11-08-10
                        • 10952

                        #291
                        Originally posted by Love The Action
                        MLB 7/21/11

                        Play #1

                        Yankees/TB under (7)(+100) 1x (Locked)
                        Added: 1x for total of 2x

                        We easily cashed the under 1-0 in this pitching matchup of Sabathia v. Shields a couple of weeks ago and see no reason to avoid it today. I've heard people say Sabathia doesn't pitch well on his b-day, he is due for a loss/bad game, etc. However, I'm not buying what they're selling. I think both Sabathia and Shields have a good day today. I'm not going to go through all the stats here because it's no secret that these guys are top 20 MLB in the case of Shields and top 10 in the case of Sabathia for defensive independent pitching stats and advanced stats. These guys are both studs and I expect both to be motivated for this matchup. Contrary to popular belief, I expect Sabathia to pitch well on this b-day and not be embarrassed against Shields. On the other side, Shields will be motivated to bounce back after a shellacking by the BoSox and the recent 1-0 loss to Sabathia by pitching well in a low scoring game. Everyone thinks the Yankees and thinks offense and overs. In fact, the Yankees are a solid under bet with records of 39-48 o/u on the season, 7-3 o/u in their last ten and 16/26 on the road. On the other side, the Rays remain a great under bet at 38-54 o/u on the season and 14/33 o/u at home. With respect to individual matchups, only one player, BJ Upton, has above a .300 average against Sabathia and on the Yankees, there are only 3 players with more than 3 at-bats against Shields who are hitting above .300. Shields has a lifetime 4.47 ERA against the Yanks and is rocking a 2.59 ERA at home. Sabathia sports a lifetime 3.04 ERA against the Rays and 2.21 away from NY this year. The umpire Marquez sports a healthy strike rate of 63% which is where we like it and both teams trend under big team. Anything is possible as we all know, however, I like this one to stay under the posted total and I'm riding with the under for 1x tonight in the Trop. Good luck.
                        Comment
                        • Love The Action
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 11-08-10
                          • 10952

                          #292
                          Originally posted by Redscot
                          Hey LTA, what do you make of Greinke's numbers? What an enigma, his stats are off the chart, yet he sports a 5 era! Only thing I can see is his really high hr/fb ratio, which you would think has to start lowering.
                          He's just been really unlucky and the victim of poor defense. As you know from looking at his defensive independent stats, he is pitching quite well this year. He has great FIP, xFIP and tERA numbers. Because BABIP is so high (above .340) and his LOB% so low (55%), that shows he has been unlucky when it comes to defense. Based on those numbers, he is due to regress to the league averages of .300 and 70%, which should help his standard stats like ERA. I haven't capped that late game yet, so I can't give you my thoughts on that game, but I would agree that this standard stats should be on a downward trend for the rest of the season.
                          Comment
                          • GoggsViggs
                            SBR MVP
                            • 06-05-10
                            • 1884

                            #293
                            I think you might like this site. Its one of my resources for capping and I pick up some gems on analytics and stats from time to time.


                            Comment
                            • Redscot
                              SBR MVP
                              • 05-16-11
                              • 2571

                              #294
                              Originally posted by GoggsViggs
                              I think you might like this site. Its one of my resources for capping and I pick up some gems on analytics and stats from time to time.


                              Thanks a bunch Goggs.
                              Comment
                              • Love The Action
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 11-08-10
                                • 10952

                                #295
                                Originally posted by Love The Action
                                MLB 7/21/11

                                Play #1

                                Yankees/TB under (7)(+100) 2x (Locked)

                                We easily cashed the under 1-0 in this pitching matchup of Sabathia v. Shields a couple of weeks ago and see no reason to avoid it today. I've heard people say Sabathia doesn't pitch well on his b-day, he is due for a loss/bad game, etc. However, I'm not buying what they're selling. I think both Sabathia and Shields have a good day today. I'm not going to go through all the stats here because it's no secret that these guys are top 20 MLB in the case of Shields and top 10 in the case of Sabathia for defensive independent pitching stats and advanced stats. These guys are both studs and I expect both to be motivated for this matchup. Contrary to popular belief, I expect Sabathia to pitch well on this b-day and not be embarrassed against Shields. On the other side, Shields will be motivated to bounce back after a shellacking by the BoSox and the recent 1-0 loss to Sabathia by pitching well in a low scoring game. Everyone thinks the Yankees and thinks offense and overs. In fact, the Yankees are a solid under bet with records of 39-48 o/u on the season, 7-3 o/u in their last ten and 16/26 on the road. On the other side, the Rays remain a great under bet at 38-54 o/u on the season and 14/33 o/u at home. With respect to individual matchups, only one player, BJ Upton, has above a .300 average against Sabathia and on the Yankees, there are only 3 players with more than 3 at-bats against Shields who are hitting above .300. Shields has a lifetime 4.47 ERA against the Yanks and is rocking a 2.59 ERA at home. Sabathia sports a lifetime 3.04 ERA against the Rays and 2.21 away from NY this year. The umpire Marquez sports a healthy strike rate of 63% which is where we like it and both teams trend under big team. Anything is possible as we all know, however, I like this one to stay under the posted total and I'm riding with the under for 1x tonight in the Trop. Good luck.
                                Play #2

                                Seattle/Toronto under (7.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)


                                In the Seattle/Toronto game, I'm rolling under because, well, Seattle is Seattle and is the perfect cure for a pitcher coming off two rough starts. Romero is a third year guy that is in the process of establishing himself in the league. He has struggled a bit over his last two start...however, those starts were against the Yankees when he gave up 3 earned runs and the BoSox when he gave up 6 earned runs. This start comes at home and against a Seattle team that is hitting .210 against lefties in their last 10 games and .230 on the season. We all know Seattle is the worst offense in the league. With Romero's ability to keep the ball on the ground as evidenced by a GB/FB over 1.5, him having a FIP, xFIP, and tERA in the mid 3's and a career ERA of 3.33 against Seattle, I think we have enough to feel comfortable in believing that Romero can limit the Mariners today. On the other side, Fister is a stud this year. He also boasts FIP, xFIP and tERA in the mid 3's which puts both pitchers in the top 35 of qualified MLB starters. He has a solid GB/FB of 1.33 which makes me believe he should be fairly successful in keeping the ball on the ground against some big hitters on the Blue Jays. Fister has been the recipient of the worst per game average of run support of any other MLB starter this year and he knows he needs to pitch well to win. Both guys will be up for the challenge of the other pitcher and I think we see this one stay under the posted total. Good luck.

                                Play #3

                                Braves/Rockies under (8.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

                                I'm running out of time before work, so I will keep this short. Tommy Hanson is turning into a bonafide ace in this league with top 20 MLB FIP, xFIP and tERA. He strikes people out, does not issue many walks and has a WHIP of 1.06. I wish his GB/FB was a bit higher for a game at Coors, but the Rockies have not hit him well in the past based on Hanson's 3.75 career ERA against and opponent's BA of .222 against them. Hanson limited the Rockies to 1 run through 7 innings earlier in the month in Atlanta and I expect a similar performance today. On the other side, Chacin does what you need to do in order to win in Colorado's thin air...he keeps the ball on the ground as evidenced by his 1.98 GB/FB ratio on the year and his .290 ERA at home this year. Although he struggled against Atlanta in his lone start against them earlier this year, I think he has bit better luck today after making some adjustments. We just need both starters to keep it to 3 or under today and I think we get that out of these guys. I am a bit concerned about both teams' recent hot hitting against right handed pitchers, but this pitching matchup is the second or third best they have had in their last ten games. Despite my general distaste for taking unders in Colorado, I think we get one today and am rolling with the under here for 1x. Good luck.
                                Comment
                                • JR007
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 02-21-10
                                  • 5279

                                  #296
                                  Nice call on the Angels...i could not go against the streak...gascan Holland strikes again

                                  Just a thought...there was a poster..a few years back (cocknocker)......who would play on a team (the next game)...after the team broke a streak..or against a team.......Angels might be a play......he had some success with this.....do not have any data to support ...but I wonder....how many teams...win two or lose two...in a row after this happens......
                                  Comment
                                  • JR007
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 02-21-10
                                    • 5279

                                    #297
                                    Angels flying cross-country to play the O's tomorrow....could be a quick game
                                    Comment
                                    • Love The Action
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 11-08-10
                                      • 10952

                                      #298
                                      Originally posted by JR007
                                      Nice call on the Angels...i could not go against the streak...gascan Holland strikes again

                                      Just a thought...there was a poster..a few years back (cocknocker)......who would play on a team (the next game)...after the team broke a streak..or against a team.......Angels might be a play......he had some success with this.....do not have any data to support ...but I wonder....how many teams...win two or lose two...in a row after this happens......
                                      Agreed...I am looking at weaver hard in this spot...
                                      Comment
                                      • Love The Action
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 11-08-10
                                        • 10952

                                        #299
                                        Originally posted by Love The Action
                                        MLB 7/21/11

                                        Play #1

                                        Yankees/TB under (7)(+100) 2x (Locked)

                                        We easily cashed the under 1-0 in this pitching matchup of Sabathia v. Shields a couple of weeks ago and see no reason to avoid it today. I've heard people say Sabathia doesn't pitch well on his b-day, he is due for a loss/bad game, etc. However, I'm not buying what they're selling. I think both Sabathia and Shields have a good day today. I'm not going to go through all the stats here because it's no secret that these guys are top 20 MLB in the case of Shields and top 10 in the case of Sabathia for defensive independent pitching stats and advanced stats. These guys are both studs and I expect both to be motivated for this matchup. Contrary to popular belief, I expect Sabathia to pitch well on this b-day and not be embarrassed against Shields. On the other side, Shields will be motivated to bounce back after a shellacking by the BoSox and the recent 1-0 loss to Sabathia by pitching well in a low scoring game. Everyone thinks the Yankees and thinks offense and overs. In fact, the Yankees are a solid under bet with records of 39-48 o/u on the season, 7-3 o/u in their last ten and 16/26 on the road. On the other side, the Rays remain a great under bet at 38-54 o/u on the season and 14/33 o/u at home. With respect to individual matchups, only one player, BJ Upton, has above a .300 average against Sabathia and on the Yankees, there are only 3 players with more than 3 at-bats against Shields who are hitting above .300. Shields has a lifetime 4.47 ERA against the Yanks and is rocking a 2.59 ERA at home. Sabathia sports a lifetime 3.04 ERA against the Rays and 2.21 away from NY this year. The umpire Marquez sports a healthy strike rate of 63% which is where we like it and both teams trend under big team. Anything is possible as we all know, however, I like this one to stay under the posted total and I'm riding with the under for 1x tonight in the Trop. Good luck.

                                        Play #2

                                        Seattle/Toronto under (7.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)


                                        In the Seattle/Toronto game, I'm rolling under because, well, Seattle is Seattle and is the perfect cure for a pitcher coming off two rough starts. Romero is a third year guy that is in the process of establishing himself in the league. He has struggled a bit over his last two start...however, those starts were against the Yankees when he gave up 3 earned runs and the BoSox when he gave up 6 earned runs. This start comes at home and against a Seattle team that is hitting .210 against lefties in their last 10 games and .230 on the season. We all know Seattle is the worst offense in the league. With Romero's ability to keep the ball on the ground as evidenced by a GB/FB over 1.5, him having a FIP, xFIP, and tERA in the mid 3's and a career ERA of 3.33 against Seattle, I think we have enough to feel comfortable in believing that Romero can limit the Mariners today. On the other side, Fister is a stud this year. He also boasts FIP, xFIP and tERA in the mid 3's which puts both pitchers in the top 35 of qualified MLB starters. He has a solid GB/FB of 1.33 which makes me believe he should be fairly successful in keeping the ball on the ground against some big hitters on the Blue Jays. Fister has been the recipient of the worst per game average of run support of any other MLB starter this year and he knows he needs to pitch well to win. Both guys will be up for the challenge of the other pitcher and I think we see this one stay under the posted total. Good luck.

                                        Play #3

                                        Braves/Rockies under (8.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

                                        I'm running out of time before work, so I will keep this short. Tommy Hanson is turning into a bonafide ace in this league with top 20 MLB FIP, xFIP and tERA. He strikes people out, does not issue many walks and has a WHIP of 1.06. I wish his GB/FB was a bit higher for a game at Coors, but the Rockies have not hit him well in the past based on Hanson's 3.75 career ERA against and opponent's BA of .222 against them. Hanson limited the Rockies to 1 run through 7 innings earlier in the month in Atlanta and I expect a similar performance today. On the other side, Chacin does what you need to do in order to win in Colorado's thin air...he keeps the ball on the ground as evidenced by his 1.98 GB/FB ratio on the year and his .290 ERA at home this year. Although he struggled against Atlanta in his lone start against them earlier this year, I think he has bit better luck today after making some adjustments. We just need both starters to keep it to 3 or under today and I think we get that out of these guys. I am a bit concerned about both teams' recent hot hitting against right handed pitchers, but this pitching matchup is the second or third best they have had in their last ten games. Despite my general distaste for taking unders in Colorado, I think we get one today and am rolling with the under here for 1x. Good luck.

                                        Play #4

                                        Angels ML (-120) 1x (Locked)


                                        Weaver is a top 5 MLB guy in most advanced stats, while Wilson is generally top 25-50. That's great, but not in Weavers league. The Angels are hitting a collective .250 against Wilson, with 8 guys at .260 or better lifetime. Wilson has 3.69 era against the angels, while Weaver has 3.38 against the rangers. Texas only hitting .233 against Weaver, with only 5 guys above .260. LAA is killing lefties right now with a .310 avg in last 10 games. One successful situational trend across all sports is to fade a team off a long winning streak. I like that trend today, and with weaver getting the best price all year at home, I like the value here and will take the angels for 1x. Good luck.

                                        Added 1x for total of 3x Yankees/TB under (7) (2x under (7)(+ 100) & 1x under (7)(-115))


                                        Just checked out the lineups and no granderson. Also, only casey kotchman is hitting over .300 in either lineup. Finally, I read some comments from shields which confirmed that he is taking tonights game as a personal challenge and that both he and cc are ready to go at it. This is my highest
                                        rated play today and deserves 3x. Still
                                        contemplating Brewers ML for the late
                                        game. We had some bad luck losing the seattle under, some good luck
                                        wining the angels ml and the rockies under was just a bad call. I think this yankees under is a solid play and I'm rolling under for 3x. Good luck.
                                        Last edited by Love The Action; 07-21-11, 05:35 PM.
                                        Comment
                                        • csmkr18
                                          Restricted User
                                          • 04-13-09
                                          • 834

                                          #300
                                          Good luck today !
                                          Comment
                                          • nickos86
                                            SBR Sharp
                                            • 03-08-11
                                            • 400

                                            #301
                                            Got on LAA ML -117 (2u) earlier.

                                            Seems too good to be true lol. Now into -116 hmm...
                                            Comment
                                            • southpaw74
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 12-21-09
                                              • 7104

                                              #302
                                              Unders are toast...maybe angels can get a W!
                                              Comment
                                              • Love The Action
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 11-08-10
                                                • 10952

                                                #303
                                                Just added to the yankees play and accidenty edited that into my previous post on the angels. We are 1-2 = -1x heading into the yankee game which I bumped to a 3x play. Lets get that one and maybe a play on the brewers ml. GL..
                                                Comment
                                                • Redscot
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 05-16-11
                                                  • 2571

                                                  #304
                                                  Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                  Just added to the yankees play and accidenty edited that into my previous post on the angels. We are 1-2 = -1x heading into the yankee game which I bumped to a 3x play. Lets get that one and maybe a play on the brewers ml. GL..
                                                  Love that under.

                                                  Gonna go med-big on the Brew Crew tonight myself, kinda reckless play really (long day on the road and itching for action). Just feel that Greinke needs to get rewarded for his dominance sooner or later and Kennedy's been regressing month by month. Loss of Drew last night and Brewers with positive momentum, I'm going for it! Honestly though didn't cap the game, just in **** it mode atm and going with the gut.

                                                  On the Yanks under with ya.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Love The Action
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 11-08-10
                                                    • 10952

                                                    #305
                                                    I am about 80% certain I will play the Brewers in the late game....Greinke is due for a dominate performance on the road and az is short handed and reeling a bit...lets see what happens with our big 3x yankee under before locking the brewers in. As long as the price does not start steaming, I will lock the brewers in about 30 mins before game time...GL...
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Love The Action
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 11-08-10
                                                      • 10952

                                                      #306
                                                      Originally posted by Redscot
                                                      Love that under.

                                                      Gonna go med-big on the Brew Crew tonight myself, kinda reckless play really (long day on the road and itching for action). Just feel that Greinke needs to get rewarded for his dominance sooner or later and Kennedy's been regressing month by month. Loss of Drew last night and Brewers with positive momentum, I'm going for it! Honestly though didn't cap the game, just in **** it mode atm and going with the gut.

                                                      On the Yanks under with ya.


                                                      Lets get this under!

                                                      I agree 100% with your brewers analysis...and don't worry, I capped it. This is play on Greinke and fade of Kennedy. Plus, I think brewers go on a little streak here. Full writeup to come later when I lock it.

                                                      Lets make some money tonight Red!
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Redscot
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 05-16-11
                                                        • 2571

                                                        #307
                                                        Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                        I am about 80% certain I will play the Brewers in the late game....Greinke is due for a dominate performance on the road and az is short handed and reeling a bit...lets see what happens with our big 3x yankee under before locking the brewers in. As long as the price does not start steaming, I will lock the brewers in about 30 mins before game time...GL...
                                                        I have a feeling we will see some movement towards the Brew-crew tonight, whether is gets blown up remains to be seen. I don't have access to the paid line movement services, got them even with my local a few minutes ago.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Redscot
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 05-16-11
                                                          • 2571

                                                          #308
                                                          Originally posted by Love The Action


                                                          Lets get this under!

                                                          I agree 100% with your brewers analysis...and don't worry, I capped it. This is play on Greinke and fade of Kennedy. Plus, I think brewers go on a little streak here. Full writeup to come later when I lock it.

                                                          Lets make some money tonight Red!
                                                          Right on man. Aside from the capping angle I just love unders! Pitchers duels get me all hot and bothered, LOL. Baseball at it's best.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • gshock1
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 12-04-09
                                                            • 5366

                                                            #309
                                                            Late $ on the under. Let's cash it!
                                                            Comment
                                                            • shocktopme
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 10-15-10
                                                              • 940

                                                              #310
                                                              Nice

                                                              Nice work my friend!!!!You definitly put your time in on looking up stats!!!!Much appreciated !!!!!Good luck....
                                                              Comment
                                                              • shocktopme
                                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                                • 10-15-10
                                                                • 940

                                                                #311
                                                                Hey

                                                                LTA......if you make play on Brew game give me o/u and win outlook please......I like Brew but o/u undecided...lean under...whats your take?Thanx
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Love The Action
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 11-08-10
                                                                  • 10952

                                                                  #312
                                                                  Originally posted by Redscot
                                                                  I have a feeling we will see some movement towards the Brew-crew tonight, whether is gets blown up remains to be seen. I don't have access to the paid line movement services, got them even with my local a few minutes ago.
                                                                  So far you are right. I lost about 4 cents since I left work for home. Need to check out a few things and will post the Brewers play soon.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Love The Action
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 11-08-10
                                                                    • 10952

                                                                    #313
                                                                    Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                                    MLB 7/21/11

                                                                    Play #1

                                                                    Yankees/TB under (7)(+100) total of 3x (2x and under (7)(-115) 1x (Locked))

                                                                    We easily cashed the under 1-0 in this pitching matchup of Sabathia v. Shields a couple of weeks ago and see no reason to avoid it today. I've heard people say Sabathia doesn't pitch well on his b-day, he is due for a loss/bad game, etc. However, I'm not buying what they're selling. I think both Sabathia and Shields have a good day today. I'm not going to go through all the stats here because it's no secret that these guys are top 20 MLB in the case of Shields and top 10 in the case of Sabathia for defensive independent pitching stats and advanced stats. These guys are both studs and I expect both to be motivated for this matchup. Contrary to popular belief, I expect Sabathia to pitch well on this b-day and not be embarrassed against Shields. On the other side, Shields will be motivated to bounce back after a shellacking by the BoSox and the recent 1-0 loss to Sabathia by pitching well in a low scoring game. Everyone thinks the Yankees and thinks offense and overs. In fact, the Yankees are a solid under bet with records of 39-48 o/u on the season, 7-3 o/u in their last ten and 16/26 on the road. On the other side, the Rays remain a great under bet at 38-54 o/u on the season and 14/33 o/u at home. With respect to individual matchups, only one player, BJ Upton, has above a .300 average against Sabathia and on the Yankees, there are only 3 players with more than 3 at-bats against Shields who are hitting above .300. Shields has a lifetime 4.47 ERA against the Yanks and is rocking a 2.59 ERA at home. Sabathia sports a lifetime 3.04 ERA against the Rays and 2.21 away from NY this year. The umpire Marquez sports a healthy strike rate of 63% which is where we like it and both teams trend under big team. Anything is possible as we all know, however, I like this one to stay under the posted total and I'm riding with the under for 1x tonight in the Trop. Good luck.

                                                                    Play #2

                                                                    Seattle/Toronto under (7.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)


                                                                    In the Seattle/Toronto game, I'm rolling under because, well, Seattle is Seattle and is the perfect cure for a pitcher coming off two rough starts. Romero is a third year guy that is in the process of establishing himself in the league. He has struggled a bit over his last two start...however, those starts were against the Yankees when he gave up 3 earned runs and the BoSox when he gave up 6 earned runs. This start comes at home and against a Seattle team that is hitting .210 against lefties in their last 10 games and .230 on the season. We all know Seattle is the worst offense in the league. With Romero's ability to keep the ball on the ground as evidenced by a GB/FB over 1.5, him having a FIP, xFIP, and tERA in the mid 3's and a career ERA of 3.33 against Seattle, I think we have enough to feel comfortable in believing that Romero can limit the Mariners today. On the other side, Fister is a stud this year. He also boasts FIP, xFIP and tERA in the mid 3's which puts both pitchers in the top 35 of qualified MLB starters. He has a solid GB/FB of 1.33 which makes me believe he should be fairly successful in keeping the ball on the ground against some big hitters on the Blue Jays. Fister has been the recipient of the worst per game average of run support of any other MLB starter this year and he knows he needs to pitch well to win. Both guys will be up for the challenge of the other pitcher and I think we see this one stay under the posted total. Good luck.

                                                                    Play #3

                                                                    Braves/Rockies under (8.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

                                                                    I'm running out of time before work, so I will keep this short. Tommy Hanson is turning into a bonafide ace in this league with top 20 MLB FIP, xFIP and tERA. He strikes people out, does not issue many walks and has a WHIP of 1.06. I wish his GB/FB was a bit higher for a game at Coors, but the Rockies have not hit him well in the past based on Hanson's 3.75 career ERA against and opponent's BA of .222 against them. Hanson limited the Rockies to 1 run through 7 innings earlier in the month in Atlanta and I expect a similar performance today. On the other side, Chacin does what you need to do in order to win in Colorado's thin air...he keeps the ball on the ground as evidenced by his 1.98 GB/FB ratio on the year and his .290 ERA at home this year. Although he struggled against Atlanta in his lone start against them earlier this year, I think he has bit better luck today after making some adjustments. We just need both starters to keep it to 3 or under today and I think we get that out of these guys. I am a bit concerned about both teams' recent hot hitting against right handed pitchers, but this pitching matchup is the second or third best they have had in their last ten games. Despite my general distaste for taking unders in Colorado, I think we get one today and am rolling with the under here for 1x. Good luck.

                                                                    Play #4

                                                                    Angels ML (-120) 1x (Locked)


                                                                    Weaver is a top 5 MLB guy in most advanced stats, while Wilson is generally top 25-50. That's great, but not in Weavers league. The Angels are hitting a collective .250 against Wilson, with 8 guys at .260 or better lifetime. Wilson has 3.69 era against the angels, while Weaver has 3.38 against the rangers. Texas only hitting .233 against Weaver, with only 5 guys above .260. LAA is killing lefties right now with a .310 avg in last 10 games. One successful situational trend across all sports is to fade a team off a long winning streak. I like that trend today, and with weaver getting the best price all year at home, I like the value here and will take the angels for 1x. Good luck.
                                                                    Play #5

                                                                    Brewers ML (-102) 1x (Locked)

                                                                    Short writeup to come...
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Redscot
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 05-16-11
                                                                      • 2571

                                                                      #314
                                                                      Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                                      So far you are right. I lost about 4 cents since I left work for home. Need to check out a few things and will post the Brewers play soon.

                                                                      4 cents is pretty tame, I thought we would see close to 10 to be honest. Again, I am shooting from the hip here, and am now into the rum , if the line doesn't move more than 5 cents I may be concerned . Bol on whatever you decide bro.

                                                                      Yanks game playing out as you called it, hoping to ride it home.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Redscot
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 05-16-11
                                                                        • 2571

                                                                        #315
                                                                        Cash the Yanks under. Nice call, was never in doubt.
                                                                        Comment
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