LTA's MLB Plays

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/21/2012

Play #1

Nationals ML (-115) 1.5x (Locked)

Here's one we may add to the stake down the road. Perhaps this is the books "trapping" us, but I just think they are forced to overprice Philly because of their public nature. I expect this one to close in the -120's and have it set at -128. Even though the Phillies just faced Gio, I still think he pitches well tomorrow. Gio is a top ten pitcher right now based on his off the chart numbers and the Phillies are middling to bottom when it comes to hitting left handers. Washington is familiar with Kendrick and they should have a field day. I have this at -128 and I am rolling with the Nationals for 1.5x. Good luck.

Play #2

Cubs/Astros under (7) 1x (Locked)

My model loves this starting pitching matchup, so for those guys who like playing first five inning plays, this could be a good one. I generally stick with full games and think both pitchers give us at least 7 innings to minimize bullpen impact. Both guys are having great seasons with all around approaches that allow for strikeouts and ground ball outs. These offenses are hit and miss and I expect them to miss in this game. I have this game set at 5.9 and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Giants ML (-102) 1x (Locked)

This play is all about the starting pitching matchups. Even though the Giants have a weakened lineup, they are facing Wolf who has not pitched well this season with numbers that are declining. MBaum is one of the best in the league and I will take a shot considering I have this set at -111. I am rolling with the Giants for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Cardinals -1RL (-120) 1x (Locked)

I like this -1RL price here with such a dominate offense and bullpen advantage, not to mention Garcia's significant advantage over Richard who I don't think is bad but will have a tough time with this Cardinals offense that loves left handed pitching. I have the Cardinals set at -189 on the ML but will play them on the -1RL for 1x. Good luck.

[Redscot]

Tough to overcome errors and still cash an under. Horrible error by Billinsley.

Stuff can't overcome his lack of a consistent focus, game plan, and sloppiness. Billingsley is who we thought he was.

[No coincidences]

Stuff can't overcome his lack of a consistent focus, game plan, and sloppiness. Billingsley is who we thought he was.

An overweight piece of shit?

Send his lazy ass down.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/20/2012 Recap

5 - 2 = +3.55x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

95 - 93 - 12 = -1.55x

Good luck on Monday.

[Love The Action]

Stuff can't overcome his lack of a consistent focus, game plan, and sloppiness. Billingsley is who we thought he was.

This last inning was nothing but bloop hits....nothing was hit hard. Nevertheless, he was in trouble all night. Onwards and upwards. Let's hope the Cardinals can put some crooked numbers on the board tomorrow as well.

[Redscot]

This last inning was nothing but bloop hits....nothing was hit hard. Nevertheless, he was in trouble all night. Onwards and upwards. Let's hope the Cardinals can put some crooked numbers on the board tomorrow as well.

True that, and the frustrating thing about him is he is capable of shutting down a line up on any given night. Doesn't seem to be able to get over the hump and get the results more consistent with his stuff. Great day none the less.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/21/2012

Play #1

Nationals ML (-115) 1.5x (Locked)

Here's one we may add to the stake down the road. Perhaps this is the books "trapping" us, but I just think they are forced to overprice Philly because of their public nature. I expect this one to close in the -120's and have it set at -128. Even though the Phillies just faced Gio, I still think he pitches well tomorrow. Gio is a top ten pitcher right now based on his off the chart numbers and the Phillies are middling to bottom when it comes to hitting left handers. Washington is familiar with Kendrick and they should have a field day. I have this at -128 and I am rolling with the Nationals for 1.5x. Good luck.

Play #2

Cubs/Astros under (7) 1x (Locked)

My model loves this starting pitching matchup, so for those guys who like playing first five inning plays, this could be a good one. I generally stick with full games and think both pitchers give us at least 7 innings to minimize bullpen impact. Both guys are having great seasons with all around approaches that allow for strikeouts and ground ball outs. These offenses are hit and miss and I expect them to miss in this game. I have this game set at 5.9 and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Giants ML (-102) 1x (Locked)

This play is all about the starting pitching matchups. Even though the Giants have a weakened lineup, they are facing Wolf who has not pitched well this season with numbers that are declining. MBaum is one of the best in the league and I will take a shot considering I have this set at -111. I am rolling with the Giants for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Cardinals -1RL (-120) 1x (Locked)

I like this -1RL price here with such a dominate offense and bullpen advantage, not to mention Garcia's significant advantage over Richard who I don't think is bad but will have a tough time with this Cardinals offense that loves left handed pitching. I have the Cardinals set at -189 on the ML but will play them on the -1RL for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Blue Jays/Devil Rays over (8)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Here's two pitchers whose conventional stats are quite good but whose advanced stats tell a different story. When you consider both guys have a tERA, FIP, xFIP and SIERA around 4.3, you start to get the picture. Both offenses are performing well and Toronto's bullpen has some holes. I have this game set at 9 even after considering this game is in the Trop and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck .

[Redscot]

Man, loving you with some time on your hands bro. Getting great prices on these plays atm. Clip/Spur game steaming up, where do you sit on that total?

[Love The Action]

Man, loving you with some time on your hands bro. Getting great prices on these plays atm. Clip/Spur game steaming up, where do you sit on that total?

Yeah man, nice Sunday. Me and the wife had parties on Friday and Saturday, so we just took it easy today with the baby today. Hung out on the couch, ordered pizza and whatnot. A nice little family day that also provides me with some free time to run the games and get them researched early.

No lean on tonight's NBA total. That's pretty accurate in the 193 range give or take a few from there. I would try to get a good line on the Spurs live betting. Good luck.

[Redscot]

Yeah man, nice Sunday. Me and the wife had parties on Friday and Saturday, so we just took it easy today with the baby today. Hung out on the couch, ordered pizza and whatnot. A nice little family day that also provides me with some free time to run the games and get them researched early.

No lean on tonight's NBA total. That's pretty accurate in the 193 range give or take a few from there. I would try to get a good line on the Spurs live betting. Good luck.

Sounds great bro. Is that Chicago style pizza? Deep dish? You know I am from NYC originally, like me some thin crust, but Chicago style is good too!

Game playing into my hands atm, Spurs at - 5 1/2 live, gonna ride it out a little further and see if I can get a better number. If not will just enjoy the game. I'll tell ya, betting 1/4 and 1/2 units live the last 2 weeks has been ridiculous. It could easily change and go against me I suppose, but going into a game with a "game plan" and hitting the number when you want it if it presents itself is golden. Have a great rest of the evening.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/21/2012

Play #1

Nationals ML (-115) 1.5x (Locked)

Here's one we may add to the stake down the road. Perhaps this is the books "trapping" us, but I just think they are forced to overprice Philly because of their public nature. I expect this one to close in the -120's and have it set at -128. Even though the Phillies just faced Gio, I still think he pitches well tomorrow. Gio is a top ten pitcher right now based on his off the chart numbers and the Phillies are middling to bottom when it comes to hitting left handers. Washington is familiar with Kendrick and they should have a field day. I have this at -128 and I am rolling with the Nationals for 1.5x. Good luck.

Play #2

Cubs/Astros under (7) 1x (Locked)

My model loves this starting pitching matchup, so for those guys who like playing first five inning plays, this could be a good one. I generally stick with full games and think both pitchers give us at least 7 innings to minimize bullpen impact. Both guys are having great seasons with all around approaches that allow for strikeouts and ground ball outs. These offenses are hit and miss and I expect them to miss in this game. I have this game set at 5.9 and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Giants ML (-102) 1x (Locked)

This play is all about the starting pitching matchups. Even though the Giants have a weakened lineup, they are facing Wolf who has not pitched well this season with numbers that are declining. MBaum is one of the best in the league and I will take a shot considering I have this set at -111. I am rolling with the Giants for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Cardinals -1RL (-120) 1x (Locked)

I like this -1RL price here with such a dominate offense and bullpen advantage, not to mention Garcia's significant advantage over Richard who I don't think is bad but will have a tough time with this Cardinals offense that loves left handed pitching. I have the Cardinals set at -189 on the ML but will play them on the -1RL for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Blue Jays/Devil Rays over (8)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Here's two pitchers whose conventional stats are quite good but whose advanced stats tell a different story. When you consider both guys have a tERA, FIP, xFIP and SIERA around 4.3, you start to get the picture. Both offenses are performing well and Toronto's bullpen has some holes. I have this game set at 9 even after considering this game is in the Trop and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck .

Play #6

Red Sox/Orioles over (9.5) 1x (Locked)

Two pitchers with poor advanced numbers going against two above average offenses. Even though both bullpens have found some recent resurgance, I just don't see this one staying under 10. I have this game set at 10.85 and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[pacocn]

Lta, nice day

[Smutbucket]

Wow, just looked at the card LTA, and really love it. actually a SCARY amount. espically since last 2 days have been REAL Good. but Im gonna fire away, especially on WASHINGTON, REDSOX/ORIOLES OVER/ and CARDINALS, , love these. BOL. keep up the good shit.

[smoovethug]

Like it a lot LTA, bol man.

[apurvaas]

Play #6

Red Sox/Orioles over (9.5) 1x (Locked)

Two pitchers with poor advanced numbers going against two above average offenses. Even though both bullpens have found some recent resurgance, I just don't see this one staying under 10. I have this game set at 10.85 and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Thanks LTA..
Also played ATL, Astros and Baltimore MLS
9 units for today.. Lets getem...
BOL

[pacocn]

Can anyone review how to manually achieve the -1 rl using ml
and the -1.5. I like the Cards play against the Pads? Thanks.

[pacocn]

Right now the Cards ml is -180 and the
-1.5 is +115.

[slikec]

I bet 2/3 on ML and 1/3 on RL and it works almost perfect

[brucethebear]

Can anyone review how to manually achieve the -1 rl using ml
and the -1.5. I like the Cards play against the Pads? Thanks.

Check out post number 6452 by fitguy mate.

[SlickRick1382]

Can anyone review how to manually achieve the -1 rl using ml
and the -1.5. I like the Cards play against the Pads? Thanks.

For this game just bet

$46.52RL
$46.52ML

You're Money Line should always cover your run line amount, that's how you break even if the Run Line doesn't cover. When I get back home I'll send you my excel calc to break it down easily for us

[pacocn]

Thanks guys that helps alot

[Redscot]

Play #5

Blue Jays/Devil Rays over (8)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Here's two pitchers whose conventional stats are quite good but whose advanced stats tell a different story. When you consider both guys have a tERA, FIP, xFIP and SIERA around 4.3, you start to get the picture. Both offenses are performing well and Toronto's bullpen has some holes. I have this game set at 9 even after considering this game is in the Trop and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck .

On this note LTA I was watching the Rays broadcast yesterday and they had one of their advanced stats "nerds" on explaining many of the common concepts and uses. It was a very interesting conversation to say the least. When they came to the subject of Babip he claimed that he thinks Hellboys very low Babip is sustainable. He made the point that the Rays staff boasted the lowest Babip in the league last year due to fielders positioning (as you know Madden has taken shifts to a whole new level), and corresponding pitchers approach to hitters. While I don't entirely agree that Hellboy can maintain a sub .240 Babip I do think it provides some interesting food for thought.

Edit: I looked it upand his claims are true, thier pitching staff rocked a Babip of .265, more than .025 lower than the league average....the next lowest came in at .278....will be interesting if this trend continues.

[Redscot]

Can anyone review how to manually achieve the -1 rl using ml
and the -1.5. I like the Cards play against the Pads? Thanks.

You basically got your answer Paco. Bottom line what you risk on the R/L -1 1/2 should be your to win amount on the M/L. Here is a calculator provided by one of LTA's followers, I forget who.

http://sportsobjective.com/wordpress/?page_id=3167

[Love The Action]

On this note LTA I was watching the Rays broadcast yesterday and they had one of their advanced stats "nerds" on explaining many of the common concepts and uses. It was a very interesting conversation to say the least. When they came to the subject of Babip he claimed that he thinks Hellboys very low Babip is sustainable. He made the point that the Rays staff boasted the lowest Babip in the league last year due to fielders positioning (as you know Madden has taken shifts to a whole new level), and corresponding pitchers approach to hitters. While I don't entirely agree that Hellboy can maintain a sub .240 Babip I do think it provides some interesting food for thought.

Cool....TB is ahead of the curve as an organization. I would agree to some extent because the park also helps him. However, the guy's other peripherals don't match up with a sustainable .240 BABIP. To sustain that number you need to be a big strikeout guy first and foremost. This guy is a lifetime 16% K% and he would need to be in the 22% and up range. His lifetime SwStr% is 9.8 and this year only 8.3. A lifetime 4.5 SIERA?

He just does not have the track record to think his top level success is sustainable without at least some regression. I think he is a back of the rotation guy, but is touted as better. I'm not saying this guy is bad, but he is due for some regression and the TB organization is fully aware. They are too "sharp" not to know. However, they can never publicly admit such inevitability and will instead provide you with a few reasons why it could be sustainable and never address why it is nonetheless unlikely.

[Love The Action]

Red....in addition, you edited your post to include the remaining Rays rotation in the sustainable BABIP discussion. I personally think a SHields and Price are legit. They have dominate stuff with the advanced numbers that dwarf hell boy. They are why you could see the Rays continue with a low BABIP, but hell boy still regress as I predict. I even rate Niemann above hell boy to be honest and I think Moore has the potential to be great once he figures it out.

[Redscot]

Cool....TB is ahead of the curve as an organization. I would agree to some extent because the park also helps him. However, the guy's other peripherals don't match up with a sustainable .240 BABIP. To sustain that number you need to be a big strikeout guy first and foremost. This guy is a lifetime 16% K% and he would need to be in the 22% and up range. His lifetime SwStr% is 9.8 and this year only 8.3. A lifetime 4.5 SIERA?

He just does not have the track record to think his top level success is sustainable without at least some regression. I think he is a back of the rotation guy, but is touted as better. I'm not saying this guy is bad, but he is due for some regression and the TB organization is fully aware. They are too "sharp" not to know. However, they can never publicly admit such inevitability and will instead provide you with a few reasons why it could be sustainable and never address why it is nonetheless unlikely.

We are in agreement here LTA. I think Hellboy is a 4 starter down the line, for many of the same reasons as you outlined. Actually have him down for a 4.2 era this year (although with the aforementioned Tampa/Babip correlation I may reduce it slightly). Tampa is definitely ahead of the curve though and I think Madden is outstanding. It's funny, although entirely different sports watching the Spurs/Popovich yesterday had me thinking of them in the same light as Tampa/Madden in some respects. In a phrase, "They get it".

[pacocn]

Thanks Red

[pacocn]

Red, that Calculator is sweet

[Redscot]

Red, that Calculator is sweet

, Yeah I forget who posted it, but it is very useful.

[taxe91]

Red....in addition, you edited your post to include the remaining Rays rotation in the sustainable BABIP discussion. I personally think a SHields and Price are legit. They have dominate stuff with the advanced numbers that dwarf hell boy. They are why you could see the Rays continue with a low BABIP, but hell boy still regress as I predict. I even rate Niemann above hell boy to be honest and I think Moore has the potential to be great once he figures it out.

price and moore especially will be ace material for years, Moore has filthy stuff. price along with cj wilson would be my 'sleeper' picks for cy young this year. 'big game James' is a great pitcher too, I honestly think he gets a little underrated considering how deep he regularly gets into games. Led the majors in complete games last year I think? That's invaluable especially when you can't afford an elite bullpen like the rays

[Redscot]

price and moore especially will be ace material for years, Moore has filthy stuff. price along with cj wilson would be my 'sleeper' picks for cy young this year. 'big game James' is a great pitcher too, I honestly think he gets a little underrated considering how deep he regularly gets into games. Led the majors in complete games last year I think? That's invaluable especially when you can't afford an elite bullpen like the rays

Add to Shields accomplishments his ability to shut down the running game. That one step less on a lead can be the difference between breaking up a double play, going 1st to third, or scoring on a double, it IS a game of inches. Moore will be ok, his dominance in his cameo last year was no fluke...but it may have set-up some exaggerated expectations for the first half off this year. Major league level hitters approach to at bats is an adjustment, they just don't give many of them away. I think he will have a strong second half though.

[Love The Action]

Red...I was going to pull the trigger with Paulino at +160 solely as an arb because I'm just not sure he can beat the bombers twice within a couple weeks. Jumped in the shower and now he's down to +143. Our guy is no longer a secret....

[Redscot]

Red...I was going to pull the trigger with Paulino at +160 solely as an arb because I'm just not sure he can beat the bombers twice within a couple weeks. Jumped in the shower and now he's down to +143. Our guy is no longer a secret....

I was just about to post about him. But that's ok, I don't feel jilted...I have moved on to a new guy.....his name is Jerome Williams! You'll back him one day, I know you will.

[Redscot]

BTW, a couple more sites I like, not sure if you visit these LTA:

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/

http://www.baseballanalytics.org/

[taxe91]

Add to Shields accomplishments his ability to shut down the running game. That one step less on a lead can be the difference between breaking up a double play, going 1st to third, or scoring on a double, it IS a game of inches. Moore will be ok, his dominance in his cameo last year was no fluke...but it may have set-up some exaggerated expectations for the first half off this year. Major league level hitters approach to at bats is an adjustment, they just don't give many of them away. I think he will have a strong second half though.

true shields used to have very unorthodox pitching mechanics when he had runners on base (although it seems to be less exaggerated this season), but it seems to work for him.

and yeah moore is/has been very hyped this year. i cant remember the last time an 8th round draft pick was rated the years top prospect, especially when the 2012 rookie class is absolutely stacked with talent. but he is well worth it, i can see myself backing this kid in many games over the next few years.