LTA's MLB Plays

**taxe91** · 05-21-12, 09:26 AM

on another note LTA thanks for this thread and the advice given out in it my learning curve is starting to pay dividends.

i beat 'the closer' on the red sox vs phillies 2 games ago by 21 cents i think it was, and ive currently gotten myself a 9 cent 'lead' over the red sox vs orioles game.

pretty relieved to see some learning pay off, i never actually realised how much variance there is between my book's (bet365) opening number and the number they offer at game time

**taxe91** · 05-21-12, 09:32 AM

Originally posted by Redscot

On this note LTA I was watching the Rays broadcast yesterday and they had one of their advanced stats "nerds" on explaining many of the common concepts and uses. It was a very interesting conversation to say the least. When they came to the subject of Babip he claimed that he thinks Hellboys very low Babip is sustainable. He made the point that the Rays staff boasted the lowest Babip in the league last year due to fielders positioning (as you know Madden has taken shifts to a whole new level), and corresponding pitchers approach to hitters. While I don't entirely agree that Hellboy can maintain a sub .240 Babip I do think it provides some interesting food for thought.

Edit: I looked it upand his claims are true, thier pitching staff rocked a Babip of .265, more than .025 lower than the league average....the next lowest came in at .278....will be interesting if this trend continues.

if we're talking about staffs that may have some downside risk i came across some interesting numbers for brandon morrow, henderson alvarez, and kyle drabek over in toronto, theres plenty of room for that team's collective ERA to rise. it was purely by coincidence that i noticed it so im not sure if there are other rotations out there like this, but its interesting to wonder what might happen to the blue jays this season if that offense doesnt switch on

**Redscot** · 05-21-12, 09:44 AM

Originally posted by taxe91

if we're talking about staffs that may have some downside risk i came across some interesting numbers for brandon morrow, henderson alvarez, and kyle drabek over in toronto, theres plenty of room for that team's collective ERA to rise. it was purely by coincidence that i noticed it so im not sure if there are other rotations out there like this, but its interesting to wonder what might happen to the blue jays this season if that offense doesnt switch on

Yes, in regards to Starting pitching, staffs with a Siera over 4.00, the Bluejays have the worst correlation of their era 3.47 compared to their Siera 4.30. Second is the S.F. Giants era 3.41, Siera 4.00. On the other end of the stick, the Twins, Yankees and Rockies Starting Pitchers have severely underperformed what their Siera indicates.

**taxe91** · 05-21-12, 09:50 AM

Originally posted by Redscot

Yes, in regards to Starting pitching, staffs with a Siera over 4.00, the Bluejays have the worst correlation of their era 3.47 compared to their Siera 4.30. Second is the S.F. Giants era 3.41, Siera 4.00. On the other end of the stick, the Twins, Yankees and Rockies Starting Pitchers have severely underperformed what their Siera indicates.

yep not surprised at all that the blue jays are right up there. i am slightly surprised seeing the giants second though, their rotation is like the NL's version of the rays, young, homegrown arms and future aces.

**Redscot** · 05-21-12, 09:54 AM

Originally posted by taxe91

yep not surprised at all that the blue jays are right up there. i am slightly surprised seeing the giants second though, their rotation is like the NL's version of the rays, young, homegrown arms and future aces.

Vogelsong is the culprit here, he skews the numbers totally and should commence to get hit hard in the near future.

**taxe91** · 05-21-12, 10:03 AM

Originally posted by Redscot

Vogelsong is the culprit here, he skews the numbers totally and should commence to get hit hard in the near future.

just imagine the disparity between their collective ERA and SIERA if tim lincecum didnt have a 6.04 era currently. surely theyd be in first ahead of the jays.

**Les_Nuts** · 05-21-12, 10:05 AM

Booked Cubs/Stros under 3.5 at -110 for the first 5. Can't stand to watch another cubs bullpen meltdown. Hope we follow up on yesterday's profit

**Les_Nuts** · 05-21-12, 10:08 AM

Rangers total set at 6.5, surely their lowest all season. I like Darvish today, Hernandez didn't look great last time vs Cleveland and hasn't been himself all season. I think Texas can get 4 or so off him today, just annoyed I missed the -125 last night

**Love The Action** · 05-21-12, 11:14 AM

Originally posted by Redscot

I was just about to post about him. But that's ok, I don't feel jilted...I have moved on to a new guy.....his name is Jerome Williams! You'll back him one day, I know you will.

I may back the angels tonight actually....

**BigBoi** · 05-21-12, 12:50 PM

Whats going on with Boston and Baltimore total?

**Love The Action** · 05-21-12, 01:01 PM

Originally posted by BigBoi

Whats going on with Boston and Baltimore total?

Under money came in. Perhaps there is an under ump or lineup change that has not been released. We shall see....

**brucethebear** · 05-21-12, 03:28 PM

Originally posted by Les_Nuts

Rangers total set at 6.5, surely their lowest all season. I like Darvish today, Hernandez didn't look great last time vs Cleveland and hasn't been himself all season. I think Texas can get 4 or so off him today, just annoyed I missed the -125 last night

I like this play. Rangers tt over 3.5 currently -110 on 5 dimes.

**Smutbucket** · 05-21-12, 03:38 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Under money came in. Perhaps there is an under ump or lineup change that has not been released. We shall see....

could it just be the bookies trying to incite action? dont see how this isnt a good play......and I dont put much faith on the lines changing values because after all they are controlled by our competition...a good plays a good play

**SlickRick1382** · 05-21-12, 04:47 PM

Originally posted by brucethebear

I like this play. Rangers tt over 3.5 currently -110 on 5 dimes.

I like it too only thing that scares me is that it's in Safeco and not in Texas. With that said Felix hasn't been himself and his stuff has been off. Think his fastball was clocking lower than normal for his last outing. Hopefully this isn't the game he rebounds. Statistically Texas is the team that gives him the most trouble. He's 10-16 with a 4.00+ ERA while he hasn't lost more than 9 times to any other team ...

**Vasco** · 05-21-12, 04:49 PM

Hey LTA, Red, Slick, JM etc......thanks for all of your advice and support in regards to my engagement! I had to get to the restaurant a little early to have a few drinks and shots to calm my nerves. Everything went according to plan!

Now is the perfect time for all of us to go on a run. Me personally, I'm already hearing about wedding plans. Time to grind out some steady profits like we were doing in April. I have a funny feeling that losing that Cubs under with the Soriano 2 run HR on Sat night was rockbottom for us. Let's have another big day. Good luck everyone.

**SlickRick1382** · 05-21-12, 04:55 PM

Originally posted by Vasco

Hey LTA, Red, Slick, JM etc......thanks for all of your advice and support in regards to my engagement! I had to get to the restaurant a little early to have a few drinks and shots to calm my nerves. Everything went according to plan!

Now is the perfect time for all of us to go on a run. Me personally, I'm already hearing about wedding plans. Time to grind out some steady profits like we were doing in April. I have a funny feeling that losing that Cubs under with the Soriano 2 run HR on Sat night was rockbottom for us. Let's have another big day. Good luck everyone.

Glad everything went well for you bro. Congrats once again to the both of you and wish you lots of health and happiness in your relationship and marriage ....

**JM92** · 05-21-12, 05:27 PM

Originally posted by Vasco

Hey LTA, Red, Slick, JM etc......thanks for all of your advice and support in regards to my engagement! I had to get to the restaurant a little early to have a few drinks and shots to calm my nerves. Everything went according to plan!

Now is the perfect time for all of us to go on a run. Me personally, I'm already hearing about wedding plans. Time to grind out some steady profits like we were doing in April. I have a funny feeling that losing that Cubs under with the Soriano 2 run HR on Sat night was rockbottom for us. Let's have another big day. Good luck everyone.

Congrats Vasco!

I am not at all a fan of the marriage idea at my 20 years of age, and that just makes me appreciate even more situations like yours, specially in these times where everyone seems so skeptical about making a commitment, whether it is for money or anything else. Wish you a happy married life dude

**hey buddy** · 05-21-12, 05:31 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Under money came in. Perhaps there is an under ump or lineup change that has not been released. We shall see....

Poter who is an under ump.

**DiamondBack** · 05-21-12, 05:33 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Under money came in. Perhaps there is an under ump or lineup change that has not been released. We shall see....

Brian Gorman

Still listed as behind the plate at 7 overs to 2 unders. The under came up as a steam play on sports options @ u9.5
Just went against us. Happens and can't expect to get em all LTA. You have a terrific thread going and I read your NBA thread too.

Win or lose people can learn by reading comments and watching how you go about things.Hope Sportsoptions is right.

**hey buddy** · 05-21-12, 05:44 PM

Originally posted by DiamondBack

Brian Gorman

Still listed as behind the plate at 7 overs to 2 unders. The under came up as a steam play on sports options @ u9.5
Just went against us. Happens and can't expect to get em all LTA. You have a terrific thread going and I read your NBA thread too.

Win or lose people can learn by reading comments and watching how you go about things.Hope Sportsoptions is right.

Where are you seeing Gorman? I see Porter listed as the home plate ump.

**Love The Action** · 05-21-12, 05:44 PM

Originally posted by DiamondBack

Brian Gorman

Still listed as behind the plate at 7 overs to 2 unders. The under came up as a steam play on sports options @ u9.5
Just went against us. Happens and can't expect to get em all LTA. You have a terrific thread going and I read your NBA thread too.

Win or lose people can learn by reading comments and watching how you go about things.Hope Sportsoptions is right.

Porter is the ump according to MLB.com and I hope that "steam play" is wrong considering I am on the over lol.

Good luck dude

**Love The Action** · 05-21-12, 05:46 PM

We do have joe west as the ump in Tampa so that's favorable to that over....

**No coincidences** · 05-21-12, 05:53 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

We do have joe west as the ump in Tampa so that's favorable to that over....

I really want to take Toronto. Hellickson is beyond due.

Weird line movement, though. Under is obviously being played, and the TOR TT under is being juiced. I guess he's just never going to lose.

**Love The Action** · 05-21-12, 05:58 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

I really want to take Toronto. Hellickson is beyond due.

Weird line movement, though. Under is obviously being played, and the TOR TT under is being juiced. I guess he's just never going to lose.

Assuming your line movement indicators are 100% predictive of a particular event. Thankfully for my over, nothing is certain in this business. Good luck.

**DiamondBack** · 05-21-12, 05:59 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Porter is the ump according to MLB.com and I hope that "steam play" is wrong considering I am on the over lol.

Good luck dude

I wasnt clear. I'm with ya on the over. Just trying to report who SportsOptions has and still does list Gorman behind the plate. Guess they are wrong from reading the guys who have read MLB.com.

Good luck on tonights card.

**Donkeys2012** · 05-21-12, 08:28 PM

Matt Garza is a total piece of shit. 7 2 out runs scored 6 of which to the number 7 and 8 hitters respectively the first being on an 0-2 pitch to the number 8 pitcher. Piece of ******* garbage.

**Love The Action** · 05-21-12, 08:30 PM

Originally posted by Donkeys2012

Matt Garza is a total piece of shit. 7 2 out runs scored 6 of which to the number 7 and 8 hitters respectively the first being on an 0-2 pitch to the number 8 pitcher. Piece of ******* garbage.

Tell us how you really feel. Garza's not garbage, but he sure looked like it tonight.

**SlickRick1382** · 05-21-12, 08:31 PM

So much for line movement. Boston vs Orioles already at 12 runs through 7

**No coincidences** · 05-21-12, 08:35 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Assuming your line movement indicators are 100% predictive of a particular event. Thankfully for my over, nothing is certain in this business. Good luck.

Where did I say that?

**Redscot** · 05-21-12, 08:41 PM

It wasn't always easy sailing, but Paulino did a hell of a job considering he just faced the yanks recently and in that ballpark. There will be no more Paulino discounts for us in the near future bro, we missed this one.

**Love The Action** · 05-21-12, 08:43 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/21/2012

Play #1

Nationals ML (-115) 1.5x (Locked)

Here's one we may add to the stake down the road. Perhaps this is the books "trapping" us, but I just think they are forced to overprice Philly because of their public nature. I expect this one to close in the -120's and have it set at -128. Even though the Phillies just faced Gio, I still think he pitches well tomorrow. Gio is a top ten pitcher right now based on his off the chart numbers and the Phillies are middling to bottom when it comes to hitting left handers. Washington is familiar with Kendrick and they should have a field day. I have this at -128 and I am rolling with the Nationals for 1.5x. Good luck.

Play #2

Cubs/Astros under (7) 1x (Locked)

My model loves this starting pitching matchup, so for those guys who like playing first five inning plays, this could be a good one. I generally stick with full games and think both pitchers give us at least 7 innings to minimize bullpen impact. Both guys are having great seasons with all around approaches that allow for strikeouts and ground ball outs. These offenses are hit and miss and I expect them to miss in this game. I have this game set at 5.9 and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Giants ML (-102) 1x (Locked)

This play is all about the starting pitching matchups. Even though the Giants have a weakened lineup, they are facing Wolf who has not pitched well this season with numbers that are declining. MBaum is one of the best in the league and I will take a shot considering I have this set at -111. I am rolling with the Giants for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Cardinals -1RL (-120) 1x (Locked)

I like this -1RL price here with such a dominate offense and bullpen advantage, not to mention Garcia's significant advantage over Richard who I don't think is bad but will have a tough time with this Cardinals offense that loves left handed pitching. I have the Cardinals set at -189 on the ML but will play them on the -1RL for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Blue Jays/Devil Rays over (8)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Here's two pitchers whose conventional stats are quite good but whose advanced stats tell a different story. When you consider both guys have a tERA, FIP, xFIP and SIERA around 4.3, you start to get the picture. Both offenses are performing well and Toronto's bullpen has some holes. I have this game set at 9 even after considering this game is in the Trop and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Red Sox/Orioles over (9.5) 1x (Locked)

Two pitchers with poor advanced numbers going against two above average offenses. Even though both bullpens have found some recent resurgance, I just don't see this one staying under 10. I have this game set at 10.85 and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Angels ML (-110) 1x (Locked)

There's not as much value on this play now as last night, but I still think this is a solid play at -110 to -113. I have this game set at -116, mainly because of Williams' advanced number advantage over Milone. In addition, Williams has not faced Oakland this season while Milone beat the Angels earlier in the season. Can he do it again? Well, Albert had one of his better games of the season against Milone so perhaps he builds on that today. When you consider that the Angels are better against lefties than the A's are against righties and have have to give LA the edge. Milone does not miss a ton of bats, so I expect the Angels to put the ball in play. Let's just hope they don't hit it at people. I have the Angels set at -116 and I am rolling with LA for 1x. Good luck.

**vikingfan101** · 05-21-12, 08:45 PM

Oh boy, Nationals closer trying to give it away.

**Donkeys2012** · 05-21-12, 08:46 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Tell us how you really feel. Garza's not garbage, but he sure looked like it tonight.

I call it how I see it. You dont give up 3 run Homeruns to number 7 and 8 hitters if you are considered an elite pitcher. Garza is overrated.

**SlickRick1382** · 05-21-12, 09:01 PM

Great top of the 8th by the Blue Jays and some help from a Tampa Bay error to guarantee us a push at worst.

**Love The Action** · 05-21-12, 09:22 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

It wasn't always easy sailing, but Paulino did a hell of a job considering he just faced the yanks recently and in that ballpark. There will be no more Paulino discounts for us in the near future bro, we missed this one.

Definitely a mistake not to play him. Value will be hard to come by....as long as the Royals keep losing outside of him and Duffy, we might find some nice spots to back those guys against good and/or public teams.