Originally posted by Catchn_Picks
LOL!
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LOL!Comment -
i pick and choice lta plays and i drop 5 in a row lol. i think i will stick betting 1st 5 innings unders. these fuken cow pens r mony suckers. some big fat piece of shit making millions and the teams keep paying them more.................
i honestly think lta doin a great job but just some unfortunate fks keep messing up.Comment -
MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/19/2012 Recap
1 - 1 = -0.2x
MLB 2012 Regular Season
90 - 91 - 12 =-5.1x
This has been a horrible run with some devastating losses that began two weeks ago on the Sunday night big play under loss between the phillies and nationals. We were smoking hot at that time, up over 15x, and we took a brutal beat on that 3x under play just like last night's brutal beat. However, the best part of a negative variance run like this is that a huge win streak is right around the corner. I have a very strong feeling that hot streak starts today. Not sure why, but I can "feel" it. Time to get to work.....Comment -
2 outs bottom of the 9th 7-0. We managed to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory once again! Not just in our games, but I am having a hard time remembering such a lousy start of a season for bull pens. Hit the hay with the Thunder down 10 and Westbrook had just done a split and was down......did not look promising. What a nice way to enjoy my cup of coffee this morning seeing that they pulled it out.
. +3 units yesterday and should have been a clean sweep. Lets keep it rolling today my man 
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Lta, I feel it too. Lets batten the hatches, right the ship,
and start sailing towards victories, let the variance begin
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Like It?
CIN (+155)
PIT (+170)
O's (+150)Comment -
Wow, you take Konerko out of that lineup, and already putrid numbers against lefties is exacerbated further.....you think Peavy rebounds today LTA? Think we could possibly see an 8 in Wrigley? Argh, never mind just saw the wind is blowing out at 20 mph and looks like a hot day....was getting all hot and bothered about reclaiming our lost under there
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MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/20/2012
Play #1
Mets ML (+160) 1x (Locked)
I'm getting a great number here considering that Pinny is at +157. Regardless, there is value at both numbers as I have this game set at +141. Gee's advanced numbers dwarf that of Alvarez across the board by a significant margin. I think most people view Alvarez as the better young pitcher and that may prove to be true down the road, but right now Gee has the better WAR, SIERA, K%, GB/FB, FIP, xFIP, SwStr%, etc. In addition, and as we discussed the other day, the Mets are a much better hitting team against righties than lefties. With the Mets looking to avoid the sweep and coming off a shutout -- both "spots" that I like to back -- I think they get it done today against a guy like Alvarez who pitches to too much contact. I have this game set at +141 giving us a ton of value at any number in the +150's or more and I am rolling with the Mets for 1x. Good luck.
Play #2
Braves/Devil Rays under (7)(+105) 1.25x (Locked)
I love this pitching matchup and so does my model. I am still skeptical of the Braves when they face lefties and they will be missing Jones. Hudson is rounding into shape and is a big time ground ball guy which is perfect for this matchup with the Rays lineup. Both pitchers are guys who will pitch deep into the game which should provide for less bullpen activity and hopefully avoid some of the tough beats on unders that have been happening of late. Culbreth is the ump and that's not a bad ump assignment. I have this game set at 5.9 and it's going to take a final score of 8 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1.25x. Good luck.Comment -
I love your Mets today. Almost want to make it a multiple unit play, but it's hard to do that on such a big dog. Need to think about it....good luck!Originally posted by RedscotWow, you take Konerko out of that lineup, and already putrid numbers against lefties is exacerbated further.....you think Peavy rebounds today LTA? Think we could possibly see an 8 in Wrigley? Argh, never mind just saw the wind is blowing out at 20 mph and looks like a hot day....was getting all hot and bothered about reclaiming our lost under there.Comment -
Red, shouldn't be any shadows to be concerned with either, since the game is starting early, The honorable Eric Cooper will be the HP Ump at Wrigley.Originally posted by RedscotWow, you take Konerko out of that lineup, and already putrid numbers against lefties is exacerbated further.....you think Peavy rebounds today LTA? Think we could possibly see an 8 in Wrigley? Argh, never mind just saw the wind is blowing out at 20 mph and looks like a hot day....was getting all hot and bothered about reclaiming our lost under there.Comment -
These were my thoughts on it in Biff Tee's thread: Glad to see you like it so much:Originally posted by Love The Action
At first glance I see a lot of value Biff Tee. Bell's generous strike zone should help out Gee, who does not have overpowering stuff, but he gets a lot of swings and misses with his smoke and mirrors. The Mets have shown to be a resilient bunch this year as well. That being said, even if Wright plays have to wonder how healthy he will be. The offense has been in a serious funk the last week and Collins is preaching "grinding" out at bats after yesterdays game. That approach could play right into Alvarez's strengths, he hardly gets swinging strikes but he does throw strike 1 at a high percentage and walks few. If the Mets are consistently getting into 0-1 , 1-2 counts it will be a long day. Pretty ambiguous answer I suppose, it is the type of game that if I saw guys I respect on it I would hit it, but if not I pass. GL today man
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Cooper has a healthy strike zone, which would help an under play, but I ain't F-ing with that wind.Originally posted by pacocnComment -
Looking like a no play. Just checking some advanced stats on that game and their are too many red flags on both angles. PASSOriginally posted by RedscotComment -
Yeah, I tend to agree. I wonder what number we will see there....8 1/2?Originally posted by pacocnComment -
Play #3Originally posted by Love The Action
Orioles/Nationals under (6.5) 1.5x (Locked)
I love this play and may add to it on the 1st five line once either of my locals release those numbers. I may just add to the game total considering both teams have solid bullpens to date. We have Drake behind the plate and the wind blowing in, both of which help this play. Both pitchers are facing the weaknesses of the opposing lineups with the Nationals struggling against lefties in the bottom 10 of the league in most categories and Balty not hitting righties as well as lefties. Strasburg's numbers are off the chart so need to even get into that and he is coming off one of his worst outting which is a nice bounce back spot with what should be added concentration. Chen has pitched well with a WAR of 0.9 already, with FIP of 3.4, tERA right at 4, SIERA at 4.3 which are respectable considering he faces the toughest offenses in baseball in his division. In addition, whenever Japanese pitchers come over, they generally have success the first time they face opponents. In this game, both pitchers have unfamiliarity working for them. I have this game set at 5.1 and it's going to take a final score of 7 to beat us. I think this one screams 2-1 game and I am rolling with the under for 1.5x. Good luck.Comment -
Loving it. Nat's +wrc against LHP is 2nd worst in the league! Only concern (and I hate to go there) is Balty's set-up man Strop has pitched 3 straight games and their closer Johnson in 3 of 4. Stras' nutsack shouldn't be a problem today though and I agree it should be a low scoring affair that could withstand a run or 2 late.Originally posted by Love The ActionComment -
My local just opened at 11 with -120 on the under.....Originally posted by RedscotComment -
Yeah I know, definitely a concern but I have faith in Lindstrom, O'Day, Ayala, Johnson....nice wind blowing in, the Nationals are not the best hitting team and I just think this one does not exceed 5. GLOriginally posted by RedscotComment -
Originally posted by Love The Action
Wow, wind is NO joke today! 8 1/2
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Very interesting,Originally posted by Love The Action
this bad boy may sail over. (pun intended)Comment -
LTA in your Atl/tb game at the top you said you are playing it for 1.25 and at the end said rolling with it for 1x.. just wanted to makesure its a 1.25 play. thanks for the plays, they will come around sometime soon.Comment -
CHI vs CHI is OTB on Bet365 right now....Comment -
Play #4Originally posted by Love The Action
Diamondbacks ML (-120) 1x (Locked)
Here is another play that I absolutely love and may add to the stake through the ML or as a -1RL play at plus odds. I expect an easy victory by AZ today. Miley is proving to be a formidable lefty and KC is brutal against lefties coming in the bottom 10 of the league in BABPI, OPS, wRC, wRC+, wOBA, etc. Miley is proving to be a consistent all around pitcher that can strike you out with a 16% K% or get the much-needed ground balls with a 1.5 GB/FB. His advanced numbers are solid with tERA, FIP, xFIP and SIERA all at or under 4. Arizona lost yesterday in a high scoring affair which may indicate their bats are coming to life a little bit, but in any event they hit righties much better than the Royals hit lefties and Adcock does not fear me today. I really don't think that much of Adcock and I expect AZ to knock him around today. I have the Diamondbacks set at -130 and I am rolling with the AZ for 1x now and maybe more in a bit. Good luck.Comment -
OK, thanks...fixed it. 1.25x on that one....Originally posted by blumpkinComment -
Looks like I won't be playing the Reds/Yankees under as I planned. It just moved to 7.5. I waited too long, was hedging about the paying the juice and now it's unplayable. Damn...Comment -
Local just moved and is giving away the under at 11 +100 now dropping the price 20 cents. Looks like a lot of early over love. To me, that number is unplayable no matter which way you lean.Originally posted by Redscot Wow, wind is NO joke today! 8 1/2 Comment -
Lta, must be a pitching change in the Diamond backs
game, it has been taking off the board at all of my books.Comment -
dbacks are back on the board now for -130...still worth playing??Comment -
Was listening to the Dbacks game on the radio yesterday and could have sworn that during the post-game show they said Miley is out and they are calling someone up from AAA to take his start. Hope that helps. With the way the Royals bats were working, I'd expect them to be slight favs with the pitching change.Originally posted by pacocnComment -
nope...its still miley n adcock listed by the books but @ -130 nowOriginally posted by El NiñoComment -
Yep, my bad I heard Miley and then they talked about Adcock being optioned to AAA and coming back for the spot start. My ears must not have been working properly after screaming at the radio when the Dbacks left runners on almost every inning, then score 3 meaningless runs in the 7th & 8th to ruin the under.Originally posted by daddyvComment -
Pretty pissed I didn't go bigger on Miley and AZ when I had the chance. Now it's up to -130 on the ML....Comment -
Nope...its up. They were just waiting for Adcock to be confirmed. I should have went bigger at -120 when I had the chance. Really kicking myself now. Anyway, good luck to you on your plays today.Originally posted by pacocnComment -
The value is gone but I still think they are a good play and may still add to them on the -1RL instead of paying the -130. GLOriginally posted by daddyvComment -
Play #5Originally posted by Love The Action
Marlins ML (+104) 1x (Locked)
Too much value to pass up here on the superior starting pitcher and lineup that has more potential than Cleveland. This is really the battle of advanced statistics versus conventional numbers when you compare Johnson to Lowe. Lowe has all the wins and fancy ERA, but Johnson is the better pitcher when you dig deeper and the margin is not even that close. Lowe is great at ground balls, but otherwise has a mediocre tERA, FIP, xFIP and SIERA all in the 4.3 range. Johnson is around 3.5 for all and has .4 advantage in WAR. What's really interesting, however, is that the Indians have loaded their lineup with 7 left handed hitters, but Johnson's splits (at least for this year) show that he has been much more dominate against lefties than righties with a FIP of 2.9 and xFIP of 3 against lefties. In years past, Johnson dominated righties but has struggled with that a bit this season coming off the shoulder surgery. The reason I think is because he has adjusted his pitch selection and is throwing more changeups similarly to his approach in 2010 at the height of his success. His changeup moves down and away from lefties which is why he has excelled against them. When you add in the fact that Miami is very familiar with Lowe from his days in the NL but Johnson has not faced the majority of Indian's hitters and has unfamiliarity working for him, this play becomes pretty easy to make. I have Miami set at -110 faves and we're getting +104. Too much value to pass up and I am rolling with the Miami for 1x. Good luck.Comment