LTA's MLB Plays

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/6/2012

Play #1

Phillies/Nationals under (6)(-105) 2x (Locked)

We've had three 1.5x plays so far this season, going 2-1. This will be our first play of 2x or more and I love this pitching matchup for our first 2x play. Zimmerman is at the top of his game so far this year and so is Hamels. Each guy's numbers are improved over the previous year. Interestingly, Zimmerman's biggest improvement is in his GB/FB rate while Hamels has made huge surge in his K%. Neither lineup is striking fear in opposing pitchers this year and most of the guys who have found success against Zimmerman are out of the Phils lineup. On the other side, Hamels has handled this Washinton lineup in the past quite well. The wind is a non-factor and the ump is Andy Fletcher who seems to lean over a bit over the past two season but before that was a reliable under guy. Either way, I like the value here considering I have this total set at 4.65 and it's going to take a final score of 7 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 2x. Good luck.

Play #2

Reds/Pirates under (8)(-105) 1x (Locked)

Here's two guys who I expect to improve as the year goes on. Latos is the strikeout specialist, while Morton is one of the best at throwing ground balls. The Pirates are one of the best under bets this year with their weak lineup and Morton has performed well against this Reds lineup. The weather is a non-factor and the ump is Jim Wolf who is another guy that used to be a big under guy but has favored the over a bit of late. I have this game set at 7 even and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

ML Parlay

Rangers ML/Devil Rays ML (+159) 1x (Locked)

I don't play a lot of moneyline parlays and this is my first of the season, but I will pull the trigger when I think we have a better probability of cashing than the odds provided. In this case, we have the better starting pitchers and the better offenses. Both teams are looking to win the rubber game of their respective series and I see no reason why they don't get it done. Ubaldo Jiminez has a poor history against Texas and has horrible advanced numbers this year. Darvish, however, has looked very impressive in both his ability to get ground balls as evidenced by his 1.88 GB/FB and strikeouts as evidenced by his 22% K%. In the other game, both Milone and Moore have the unfamiliarity factor going for them and both guys have very similar numbers this year. However, Moore passes the "eye" test much better than Milone. While I do think Milone will be a solid back of the rotation guy, Moore is a top of the rotation elite-type talent. Tampa will be looking to bounce back after losing yesterday and I think they do just that. Texas should also rap up their "rubber" game and I am going to play them both on the moneyline for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Diamondbacks/Mets under (7)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I was torn on whether to play the under or to play AZ as I think they are both very good plays. However, I think the under is the slightly better play. If I were able to get 7.5, I would probably make this a 1.25x or more play. I have this game set at 6.08 so not quite a full run of value, but enough to make this play. Cahill has been pitching well and has the unfamiliarity factor working in his favor. We have been backing him all year on unders to profit, which would have been much more had we not suffered some bad beats due to bullpen failures. Dickey has not fared particularly well against AZ in the past, but the knuckleball is a curious pitch that depends on a multitude of factors which may not transfer over from game to game. Dickey himself has been pitching well this year, except for 1 game against Atlanta when he gave up 8 runs. All of his other starters have yielded 3 or less earned runs. I expect Cahill to manage that Mets lineup quite well and a quality start from Dickey should ensure us this play. Bob Davidson is the ump with a nice strike rate generally above 63% and the weather is blowing in across the field from the East at slow 5-8mph. I have this one set at 6.08 and it's going to take a final score of 8 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Braves/Rockies under (9) 1x (Locked)

Here's an interesting play that started to get juiced on the under, so I'm locking in -110 now. Despite the last two game opening at 10 and getting to 10.5 or a juiced up over, only to see those games eclipse 15 runs, this game opens up at 9 and sees early under money. Hmm..are the books tipping their hand? I think so, considering my model has this at 8.03. I think there are a few reasons for this and some additional factors pointing to the under here. First, Beachy is pitching very well right now and has increased his GB/FB rate over 1 which makes him very formidable considering strikeouts are his specialty. Nicasio is starting to round into shape after the accident with some nice performances, which have also made us some money. The weather is not hot like it has been the last two days as it's in the high 50's as opposed to the mid 80's which should help those pitchers retain some energy. The ump is Brian Runge who has a huge under lean and strike rate above 64% for the majority of his career. You can't make a living playing unders at Coors, but this is one spot where I think the under is the right play and I am rolling that way for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Yankees -1RL (+101) 1x (Locked)

I'm going to take a shot with the Yanks at a great price on the -1RL. Despite Rivera going down, the Yanks still have a top 5 bullpen in terms of WAR, SIERA, xFIP, etc. The Royals have a decent bullpen, top 10 in many of the same categories, but I'm not sure this is the lineup they want to face in the 4th game of a 4 game series. The Yanks need this game and have all the big guns in the lineup today. Phil Hughes has pitched well in spots, but his command has been lacking and he has been unable to get the big out. His BABIP is in the .330's and his LOB% is incredibly low at 56%. He is the exact opposite of Hell Boy and based on Hughes maintaining a great K% at 22%, I tend to think those numbers start to come toward the league averages which should see Hughes give us some nice performances. Hochevaar is a nice guy to back in certain situations, especially on the under, but not against this lineup. The Yanks have knocked Hochevaar around in their time, while Hughes has handled this Royals lineup well. I expect the same today and I am risking the push because I think the Yanks either lose outright or win it easily. I am rolling with the Yankees on the -1RL for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

We destroyed the closing number on the AZ/Mets under by 30 cents....and the Mets lite up Cahill in the bottom of the 1st

[Catchn_Picks]

LTA:

5D is only showing a 24 cent difference in the -1 line. That is shockingly low. NYY -122 for game/+102 for the -1 line. At that price, I had to grab the straight line just in case of a closer game.

I think the books are starting to shade the line more than ever on public teams where players are trying to squeeze the favorite lines by taking the -1 now instead of the old days where they would gamble more and play the run line.

Good thing to keep an eye on.

[SlickRick1382]

Yeah I took the ML at -126 from one of my locals. Had to pay a few cents more since it was 2:10pm and had to call it in and this is the only one still accepting ...

[Love The Action]

LTA:

5D is only showing a 24 cent difference in the -1 line. That is shockingly low. NYY -122 for game/+102 for the -1 line. At that price, I had to grab the straight line just in case of a closer game.

I think the books are starting to shade the line more than ever on public teams where players are trying to squeeze the favorite lines by taking the -1 now instead of the old days where they would gamble more and play the run line.

Good thing to keep an eye on.

Yeah I took the ML at -126 from one of my locals. Had to pay a few cents more since it was 2:10pm and had to call it in and this is the only one still accepting ...

Good luck guys. I could have had the Yanks at -121 on the ML if I wanted. They were at -122 when I made my -1RL at +101. However, as I said in my writeup, I think NY either wins easily -- by more than 2 -- or loses. I don't see a 1 run game here, so I see no reason to risk the 20-25 cents. NY has a strong lineup going today against a guy they know how to attack. The ML price is not something I missed, rather I chose the -1RL price. I am confident in the -1RL.

In actuality, I do forsee some nice value on the Yanks ML's and -1RL's moving forward due to the Rivera injury. The books were forced to adjust the futures odds and that trickles down. Value will be had -- at least for now -- on the Yanks. If they start freight-training teams, that will disappear quickly. Good luck.

[Catchn_Picks]

Either way...let's get em Yanks!

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/6/2012

Play #1

Phillies/Nationals under (6)(-105) 2x (Locked)

We've had three 1.5x plays so far this season, going 2-1. This will be our first play of 2x or more and I love this pitching matchup for our first 2x play. Zimmerman is at the top of his game so far this year and so is Hamels. Each guy's numbers are improved over the previous year. Interestingly, Zimmerman's biggest improvement is in his GB/FB rate while Hamels has made huge surge in his K%. Neither lineup is striking fear in opposing pitchers this year and most of the guys who have found success against Zimmerman are out of the Phils lineup. On the other side, Hamels has handled this Washinton lineup in the past quite well. The wind is a non-factor and the ump is Andy Fletcher who seems to lean over a bit over the past two season but before that was a reliable under guy. Either way, I like the value here considering I have this total set at 4.65 and it's going to take a final score of 7 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 2x. Good luck.

Play #2

Reds/Pirates under (8)(-105) 1x (Locked)

Here's two guys who I expect to improve as the year goes on. Latos is the strikeout specialist, while Morton is one of the best at throwing ground balls. The Pirates are one of the best under bets this year with their weak lineup and Morton has performed well against this Reds lineup. The weather is a non-factor and the ump is Jim Wolf who is another guy that used to be a big under guy but has favored the over a bit of late. I have this game set at 7 even and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

ML Parlay

Rangers ML/Devil Rays ML (+159) 1x (Locked)

I don't play a lot of moneyline parlays and this is my first of the season, but I will pull the trigger when I think we have a better probability of cashing than the odds provided. In this case, we have the better starting pitchers and the better offenses. Both teams are looking to win the rubber game of their respective series and I see no reason why they don't get it done. Ubaldo Jiminez has a poor history against Texas and has horrible advanced numbers this year. Darvish, however, has looked very impressive in both his ability to get ground balls as evidenced by his 1.88 GB/FB and strikeouts as evidenced by his 22% K%. In the other game, both Milone and Moore have the unfamiliarity factor going for them and both guys have very similar numbers this year. However, Moore passes the "eye" test much better than Milone. While I do think Milone will be a solid back of the rotation guy, Moore is a top of the rotation elite-type talent. Tampa will be looking to bounce back after losing yesterday and I think they do just that. Texas should also rap up their "rubber" game and I am going to play them both on the moneyline for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Diamondbacks/Mets under (7)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I was torn on whether to play the under or to play AZ as I think they are both very good plays. However, I think the under is the slightly better play. If I were able to get 7.5, I would probably make this a 1.25x or more play. I have this game set at 6.08 so not quite a full run of value, but enough to make this play. Cahill has been pitching well and has the unfamiliarity factor working in his favor. We have been backing him all year on unders to profit, which would have been much more had we not suffered some bad beats due to bullpen failures. Dickey has not fared particularly well against AZ in the past, but the knuckleball is a curious pitch that depends on a multitude of factors which may not transfer over from game to game. Dickey himself has been pitching well this year, except for 1 game against Atlanta when he gave up 8 runs. All of his other starters have yielded 3 or less earned runs. I expect Cahill to manage that Mets lineup quite well and a quality start from Dickey should ensure us this play. Bob Davidson is the ump with a nice strike rate generally above 63% and the weather is blowing in across the field from the East at slow 5-8mph. I have this one set at 6.08 and it's going to take a final score of 8 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Braves/Rockies under (9) 1x (Locked)

Here's an interesting play that started to get juiced on the under, so I'm locking in -110 now. Despite the last two game opening at 10 and getting to 10.5 or a juiced up over, only to see those games eclipse 15 runs, this game opens up at 9 and sees early under money. Hmm..are the books tipping their hand? I think so, considering my model has this at 8.03. I think there are a few reasons for this and some additional factors pointing to the under here. First, Beachy is pitching very well right now and has increased his GB/FB rate over 1 which makes him very formidable considering strikeouts are his specialty. Nicasio is starting to round into shape after the accident with some nice performances, which have also made us some money. The weather is not hot like it has been the last two days as it's in the high 50's as opposed to the mid 80's which should help those pitchers retain some energy. The ump is Brian Runge who has a huge under lean and strike rate above 64% for the majority of his career. You can't make a living playing unders at Coors, but this is one spot where I think the under is the right play and I am rolling that way for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Yankees -1RL (+101) 1x (Locked)

I'm going to take a shot with the Yanks at a great price on the -1RL. Despite Rivera going down, the Yanks still have a top 5 bullpen in terms of WAR, SIERA, xFIP, etc. The Royals have a decent bullpen, top 10 in many of the same categories, but I'm not sure this is the lineup they want to face in the 4th game of a 4 game series. The Yanks need this game and have all the big guns in the lineup today. Phil Hughes has pitched well in spots, but his command has been lacking and he has been unable to get the big out. His BABIP is in the .330's and his LOB% is incredibly low at 56%. He is the exact opposite of Hell Boy and based on Hughes maintaining a great K% at 22%, I tend to think those numbers start to come toward the league averages which should see Hughes give us some nice performances. Hochevaar is a nice guy to back in certain situations, especially on the under, but not against this lineup. The Yanks have knocked Hochevaar around in their time, while Hughes has handled this Royals lineup well. I expect the same today and I am risking the push because I think the Yanks either lose outright or win it easily. I am rolling with the Yankees on the -1RL for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Marlins ML (-119) 1x (Locked)

I have the fish set at -127 and I am rolling with the Marlins for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

My card is final. I debated that marlins play all day but decided to jump aboard when the price dipped back down. I generally don't like backing teams going for the sweep and nolasco has bad numbers against the padres, but he's also having a great year and the pads might just have been what the marlins needed to right the ship. I'm out for the day at a family party. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/6/2012

Play #1

Phillies/Nationals under (6)(-105) 3x (Locked)

We've had three 1.5x plays so far this season, going 2-1. This will be our first play of 2x or more and I love this pitching matchup for our first 2x play. Zimmerman is at the top of his game so far this year and so is Hamels. Each guy's numbers are improved over the previous year. Interestingly, Zimmerman's biggest improvement is in his GB/FB rate while Hamels has made huge surge in his K%. Neither lineup is striking fear in opposing pitchers this year and most of the guys who have found success against Zimmerman are out of the Phils lineup. On the other side, Hamels has handled this Washinton lineup in the past quite well. The wind is a non-factor and the ump is Andy Fletcher who seems to lean over a bit over the past two season but before that was a reliable under guy. Either way, I like the value here considering I have this total set at 4.65 and it's going to take a final score of 7 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 3x. Good luck.

Play #2

Reds/Pirates under (8)(-105) 1x (Locked)

Here's two guys who I expect to improve as the year goes on. Latos is the strikeout specialist, while Morton is one of the best at throwing ground balls. The Pirates are one of the best under bets this year with their weak lineup and Morton has performed well against this Reds lineup. The weather is a non-factor and the ump is Jim Wolf who is another guy that used to be a big under guy but has favored the over a bit of late. I have this game set at 7 even and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

ML Parlay

Rangers ML/Devil Rays ML (+159) 1x (Locked)

I don't play a lot of moneyline parlays and this is my first of the season, but I will pull the trigger when I think we have a better probability of cashing than the odds provided. In this case, we have the better starting pitchers and the better offenses. Both teams are looking to win the rubber game of their respective series and I see no reason why they don't get it done. Ubaldo Jiminez has a poor history against Texas and has horrible advanced numbers this year. Darvish, however, has looked very impressive in both his ability to get ground balls as evidenced by his 1.88 GB/FB and strikeouts as evidenced by his 22% K%. In the other game, both Milone and Moore have the unfamiliarity factor going for them and both guys have very similar numbers this year. However, Moore passes the "eye" test much better than Milone. While I do think Milone will be a solid back of the rotation guy, Moore is a top of the rotation elite-type talent. Tampa will be looking to bounce back after losing yesterday and I think they do just that. Texas should also rap up their "rubber" game and I am going to play them both on the moneyline for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Diamondbacks/Mets under (7)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I was torn on whether to play the under or to play AZ as I think they are both very good plays. However, I think the under is the slightly better play. If I were able to get 7.5, I would probably make this a 1.25x or more play. I have this game set at 6.08 so not quite a full run of value, but enough to make this play. Cahill has been pitching well and has the unfamiliarity factor working in his favor. We have been backing him all year on unders to profit, which would have been much more had we not suffered some bad beats due to bullpen failures. Dickey has not fared particularly well against AZ in the past, but the knuckleball is a curious pitch that depends on a multitude of factors which may not transfer over from game to game. Dickey himself has been pitching well this year, except for 1 game against Atlanta when he gave up 8 runs. All of his other starters have yielded 3 or less earned runs. I expect Cahill to manage that Mets lineup quite well and a quality start from Dickey should ensure us this play. Bob Davidson is the ump with a nice strike rate generally above 63% and the weather is blowing in across the field from the East at slow 5-8mph. I have this one set at 6.08 and it's going to take a final score of 8 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Braves/Rockies under (9) 1x (Locked)

Here's an interesting play that started to get juiced on the under, so I'm locking in -110 now. Despite the last two game opening at 10 and getting to 10.5 or a juiced up over, only to see those games eclipse 15 runs, this game opens up at 9 and sees early under money. Hmm..are the books tipping their hand? I think so, considering my model has this at 8.03. I think there are a few reasons for this and some additional factors pointing to the under here. First, Beachy is pitching very well right now and has increased his GB/FB rate over 1 which makes him very formidable considering strikeouts are his specialty. Nicasio is starting to round into shape after the accident with some nice performances, which have also made us some money. The weather is not hot like it has been the last two days as it's in the high 50's as opposed to the mid 80's which should help those pitchers retain some energy. The ump is Brian Runge who has a huge under lean and strike rate above 64% for the majority of his career. You can't make a living playing unders at Coors, but this is one spot where I think the under is the right play and I am rolling that way for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Yankees -1RL (+101) 1x (Locked)

I'm going to take a shot with the Yanks at a great price on the -1RL. Despite Rivera going down, the Yanks still have a top 5 bullpen in terms of WAR, SIERA, xFIP, etc. The Royals have a decent bullpen, top 10 in many of the same categories, but I'm not sure this is the lineup they want to face in the 4th game of a 4 game series. The Yanks need this game and have all the big guns in the lineup today. Phil Hughes has pitched well in spots, but his command has been lacking and he has been unable to get the big out. His BABIP is in the .330's and his LOB% is incredibly low at 56%. He is the exact opposite of Hell Boy and based on Hughes maintaining a great K% at 22%, I tend to think those numbers start to come toward the league averages which should see Hughes give us some nice performances. Hochevaar is a nice guy to back in certain situations, especially on the under, but not against this lineup. The Yanks have knocked Hochevaar around in their time, while Hughes has handled this Royals lineup well. I expect the same today and I am risking the push because I think the Yanks either lose outright or win it easily. I am rolling with the Yankees on the -1RL for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Marlins ML (-119) 1x (Locked)

I have the fish set at -127 and I am rolling with the Marlins for 1x. Good luck.

Added 1x to Play #1 for total of 3x. Correct units denoted above.

Feeling great about this play and I was able to get all three units at -105. I expect great games out of both Hamels and Zimmerman, plus we have the ESPN Sunday Night game under trend working for us. I am going to play aggressive and roll with the under for 3x. Good luck.

[J.M. Disciple]

You are crushing the books today. If that 3x comes through today it will be a really great day for you. Nice work.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/7/2012

Play #1

Mets/Phillies under (6.5) 1x (Locked)

I have this game set at 5.48 and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Catchn_Picks]

LTA, although a loss, the ML parlay may have saved us all some money over playing one or both of those teams.

Blessing in disguise?

[Catchn_Picks]

Well that sucked bigtime. Wash game was in hand.

Brutal.

[Love The Action]

**** you Ryan perry....the ump wolf did us no favors either. We deserved that fuking game. That right there pisses me off. No regrets at all though. That was the right play to go big on. God damnit

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/6/2012 Recap

4 -2 -1 = -0.14x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

71 - 52 - 9 = +15.72x

A possible +6.01x day lost because of Ryan Perry....what a brutal beat in the 9th. Destroyed what could have been a killer day. Fuking pissed now but must forget by tomorrow and move on. Fukin pissed now though...

[absolutkaos]

tough beat in the meaningless 9th....tomorrow's another day.... thanks for your efforts!

[Redscot]

**** you Ryan perry....the ump wolf did us no favors either. We deserved that fuking game. That right there pisses me off. No regrets at all though. That was the right play to go big on. God damnit

Was the right play bro. Would make it again with no hesitations, and yes the ump put Perry behind the 8-ball as well before the game got out of hand, ridiculous no strike call when they swiped the base. F uck it, you have been on fire and crushing the closer that is what counts, long season and we will make our money. Remember Perry wants to do well too, these guys are human and have families just like us .

[Catchn_Picks]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/6/2012 Recap

4 -2 -1 = -0.14x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

71 - 52 - 9 = +15.72x

A possible +6.01x day lost because of Ryan Perry....what a brutal beat in the 9th. Destroyed what could have been a killer day. Fuking pissed now but must forget by tomorrow and move on. Fukin pissed now though...

LTA, the juice is right but it is 4-4-1 = -0.14x I think. If I am somehow wrong, please forgive.

The Wash game was a dead under from the start. It was just a ninth inning get away by the bullpen. The relievers are the hardest to calculate in baseball, imo because you don't know who they will use if they use any at all.

[Love The Action]

LTA, the juice is right but it is 4-4-1 = -0.14x I think. If I am somehow wrong, please forgive.

The Wash game was a dead under from the start. It was just a ninth inning get away by the bullpen. The relievers are the hardest to calculate in baseball, imo because you don't know who they will use if they use any at all.

See post 6659, only a few posts above. I had 7 plays dude, won 4, lost two and pushed 1.

[Catchn_Picks]

Sorry, my bad. Thought it was calculating units not games.

[Love The Action]

Looks like someone just made a huge move on the Astros tomorrow....just moved from -108 to -118... Can't back wandy now. When it rains it pours.

[brucethebear]

Just disgusted at the end of the nats games.
Onto tomorrow

[meader99]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/6/2012 Recap

4 -2 -1 = -0.14x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

71 - 52 - 9 = +15.72x

A possible +6.01x day lost because of Ryan Perry....what a brutal beat in the 9th. Destroyed what could have been a killer day. Fuking pissed now but must forget by tomorrow and move on. Fukin pissed now though...

Hey LTA, tell us how you really feel...... Don't hold back either!!!

[Redscot]

Wow, I had my eye on that 'Stros game too. Gotta be feeling good about the season as a whole though bro. Your model seems to have honed in on value very quickly, I am impressed . I have a good feeling this will be a banner season for you, last year you ended up big and had a ridiculous July (you had to be there to know how crazy it was ). As always, appreciate your hard work and the educative elements that come with it.

Edit: Checking out 5dimes they have 'Stros available at -113 reduced juice.....hmmmm

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/7/2012

Play #1

Mets/Phillies under (6.5) 1x (Locked)

I have this game set at 5.48 and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Astros ML (-113) 1x (Locked)

The books and sharps are starting to respect the Astros because of their bats and this is a nice matchup for them having destroyed Zambrano many times before. Wandy has a career H/A splits that strongly favor pitching in Houston and he has also performed well against Miami. I give Houston standard home field pricing in this game at -120 which still leaves us 7 cents of value and I am rolling with the Astros for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Wow, I had my eye on that 'Stros game too. Gotta be feeling good about the season as a whole though bro. Your model seems to have honed in on value very quickly, I am impressed . I have a good feeling this will be a banner season for you, last year you ended up big and had a ridiculous July (you had to be there to know how crazy it was ). As always, appreciate your hard work and the educative elements that come with it.

Edit: Checking out 5dimes they have 'Stros available at -113 reduced juice.....hmmmm

Yep....just locked them up. Had I gotten up earlier j could have had -109....good luck!

[Pluthero]

Good luck Buddy, I'm tailing you on both of these picks. FYI though, Zambrano has a 2.69 ERA and 1.15 WHIP for his career against Houston. Current Houston batters are hitting .211/.400/.263 off him. Like you said, Wandy does pitch much better at home and has pitched well against Miami. That's why I'm on the Astros.

[Redscot]

Good luck Buddy, I'm tailing you on both of these picks. FYI though, Zambrano has a 2.69 ERA and 1.15 WHIP for his career against Houston. Current Houston batters are hitting .211/.400/.263 off him. Like you said, Wandy does pitch much better at home and has pitched well against Miami. That's why I'm on the Astros.

My 2 cents is the majority of past success is insignificant. The sample sizes are WAY too small and we have no idea the type of outs or hits they were (hard hit atems, texas leaguer hits etc.) In this cas only 3 guys have faced Zambrano over 10 times and each of them have had success, the only guy with significant ab's against Zambrano is Lee, who has owned him with 5 dingers and a 1.122 ops in 70 ab's Again though, going off some heavy duty baseball stat nerds input, the majority of past success is not too relevant.

Carlos Lee R

70

26

7

0

5

16

8

7

.371

.436

.686

1.122 Bol today

[Love The Action]

Good luck Buddy, I'm tailing you on both of these picks. FYI though, Zambrano has a 2.69 ERA and 1.15 WHIP for his career against Houston. Current Houston batters are hitting .211/.400/.263 off him. Like you said, Wandy does pitch much better at home and has pitched well against Miami. That's why I'm on the Astros.

Not sure where you got your numbers, but they are inaccurate. Here is what Zambrano has done against the Astros current lineup. It has not been pretty. I agree with red, however, that the sample sizes are not statistically significant. I like including history in my write ups because it's nice to know.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/batvsp...arlos-zambrano.

[Love The Action]

My 2 cents is the majority of past success is insignificant. The sample sizes are WAY too small and we have no idea the type of outs or hits they were (hard hit atems, texas leaguer hits etc.) In this cas only 3 guys have faced Zambrano over 10 times and each of them have had success, the only guy with significant ab's against Zambrano is Lee, who has owned him with 5 dingers and a 1.122 ops in 70 ab's Again though, going off some heavy duty baseball stat nerds input, the majority of past success is not too relevant.

Carlos Lee R

70

26

7

0

5

16

8

7

.371

.436

.686

1.122 Bol today

You need at least 500 at bats between a pitcher and hitter to have any statistical significance. But history is good to note because you want to see if there have been any huge advantage that night be worth noting. I don't even include matchip history in my model, but it's something I at least check out once I identify possible value. GL

[Redscot]

You need at least 500 at bats between a pitcher and hitter to have any statistical significance. But history is good to note because you want to see if there have been any huge advantage that night be worth noting. I don't even include matchip history in my model, but it's something I at least check out once I identify possible value. GL

Totally agree here. All you have to do is cruise around these very boards and see people "the public" making bets based on this very notion, so it is important to keep tabs on it.

[taxe91]

miami hitting below .200 against lefties. i like this astros play.

gl lta

[Pluthero]

Yep, I see what I did. The numbers I posted are from 2012 and not for Zambrano's career. I should have noticed that when Carlos Lee's stats were absent. I agree with both of y'all that historical data of this nature doesn't matter much and appreciate your writeups. The only reason I questioned it was because I've seen Houston get shut down too many times by that prick. The hurricane series when Z threw a no-hitter against a Houston squad that was too concerned about their friends' and families' safety comes to mind in particular. I'll never forgive Bud Selig for that.

[Redscot]

LTA, whats up with the Cards side? Lynn's advanced stats indicate his stellar era is well deserved and he really keeps the ball on the ground should the roof be open. Saunders is due to get rocked his 5% swinging strike is laughable. The Cards are absolutely wearing out Lhp, and the D-backs have been below average creating runs against Rhp. D-backs coming home after an East coast swing and the Cards were already out West.....hmmmm

Also interested on your thoughts in S.D. Pad's have been absolutely woeful creating runs against Lhp, and while Volquez is bouncing back some he is still a mid rotation guy at best. Add to that the Pad's BP, they lost Street, traded Fieri, and Cashner melted down yesterday....

[Love The Action]

LTA, whats up with the Cards side? Lynn's advanced stats indicate his stellar era is well deserved and he really keeps the ball on the ground should the roof be open. Saunders is due to get rocked his 5% swinging strike is laughable. The Cards are absolutely wearing out Lhp, and the D-backs have been below average creating runs against Rhp. D-backs coming home after an East coast swing and the Cards were already out West.....hmmmm

Also interested on your thoughts in S.D. Pad's have been absolutely woeful creating runs against Lhp, and while Volquez is bouncing back some he is still a mid rotation guy at best. Add to that the Pad's BP, they lost Street, traded Fieri, and Cashner melted down yesterday....

The cards are a very strong lean and probable play. The rox are a smaller lean and I also like the under a tad. Will make a decision on the cards shortly. GL