LTA's MLB Plays

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/5/2012

Play #1

Cardinals/Astros under (8)(+100) 1x (Locked)

I like this pitching matchup despite the strength of the offenses. My model has this at 7.03 and I will play the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Nationals ML (-125) 1x (Locked)

None of the Phillies hitters are very well right now against lefties and Gio is one of the toughest out there, plus he has the unfamiliarity factor working in his favor coming over from the AL. Joe West is the umpire and he has a strong home team lean throughout his career. I have this game set at -131 giving us six cents of value and I am rolling with the Nationals for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Athletics ML (+145) 1x (Locked)

I expect this number to drop at some point today down into the +130's. Hellickson is overpriced in this spot coming off a late win over King Felix (ended up as a loss for us) with 80% of all bets coming in on TB. However, the price has pretty much stayed static give or take a few cents. Colon has pitched well so far this season, just like he did last season and that is giving us some value. Other than Marquis and Minny who are facing Hernandez's Mariners, Colon and the A's are the biggest dog on the board and that is fueled entirely by public perception. Hellickson is rocking a .220's BABIP and a LOB% over 90%. Those number are going to come down and I would not be surprised to see Oakland get 3 or more runs in this game. Paul Nauert is the umpire today and he is not a friendly umpire to home teams, so hopefully he has some mercy on the old, fat man, Bartolo Colon. I have this game set at +132 giving us over ten cents of value on this game and I am rolling with the A's for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Mariners -1RL (-126) 1x (Locked)

I also like the over in this game, but think the safer bet is to trust the King. These are the types of games he has to win and I fully expect a solid performance out of him. On the other side, even though Marquis has found some success against the Mariners, this young lineup can hit mid-tier pitching. The reason they have gone on this losing streak is because they have faced some great starting pitchers when they played TB and had to go against Morrow in Toronto. I think their losing streak ends today and I also think their is a high probability they win by multiple runs. Consequently, I'm going to risk the push and play the Mariners on the -1RL for 1x. Good luck.

[Smutbucket]

love the a's and mariners today too....lets crush the books!

[ghislaine]

Thanks for the Nationals win You are steady making money !! Been back three night now and so far, pretty much no loss, no profit- I know, steady grind
Dexter was on the over on Cardinals/Astros, let`s see what happens....
Will tail You again tonight, keep it up.

[Gamble32jn]

Well LTA I tried another one of ur picks. I think im bad luck for u. I have picked Probulary 7 of ur bets this year and I lose. I think I'm a bad luck charm for u. I took the cardinals Under bet and already 5 runs scored. Thats my luck though.

[Catchn_Picks]

Well LTA I tried another one of ur picks. I think im bad luck for u. I have picked Probulary 7 of ur bets this year and I lose. I think I'm a bad luck charm for u. I took the cardinals Under bet and already 5 runs scored. Thats my luck though.

IMO, there is no bad luck or good luck. That is a myth. There is only probability, math and variance. Picking 7 straight losing LTA bets is definitely really bad variance tho. Not easy to do among a body of overall winning plays.

I would have thought you might have played last night's 5 unit easy winner.

Stay with it...use good money management...don't get sidetracked. Keep with a program.

Best of luck.

[Gamble32jn]

I been on a program and this week I have failed bad. Local bookie changed my limit after I been killing the books for a while now and when u get desperate for a win after losing non stop u make haste decisions it seems. After my limit was changed it screwed my pattern up for betting and that killed me bad.

[aznbluff]

Good or bad luck is just another way of defining variance. For whatever reason, luck has a negative connotation associated with it now. In my mind, every time I win, I got lucky (since the team doesnt win it 100% of the time) and every time I lose, I got unlucky. Winning or losing doesn't really matter as long as you are getting you bets in at good numbers, since that's all that can be controlled.

[Catchn_Picks]

I been on a program and this week I have failed bad. Local bookie changed my limit after I been killing the books for a while now and when u get desperate for a win after losing non stop u make haste decisions it seems. After my limit was changed it screwed my pattern up for betting and that killed me bad.

Gamblin:

Don't feel bad...it happens all the time. These types of mind games are the main advantage for the books. They don't have to twist you up...you can twist yourself up without any of their help.

When you are betting 1-3% of your true betting bankroll (not what you think you can get your hands on if you really need it), there is no sweating games. It becomes fun. But if you need the rush from big bets, then you should rethink your strategy or get out of the game now!

I have seen many legit 60% winning players lose everything they have. If you cannot figure out how this can happen, then you need to read some books or stuff on the net.

Why do you think a casino will change up BJ Dealers when a player is winning? Do really think a casino with a million dollar a month electric bill alone really believes in luck? No...they are trying to get into the players head...not change their luck.

It is all about you. Forget trying to improve your play win percentage and start to really work on your personal game within the game. It will dramatically increase your winnings much more than more winners will. It is not an easy concept to understand. Once you do, you will never look back.

Take your current BR now and work your percentages from that. Resist the feeling of making smaller bets than you are used to making. If your local cut your limits after you beat him, he is hoping you make many more weak plays to catch up. Don't play into his hand. Make your own "luck".

I started with two online accounts with $200 a piece deposited in them. I now have $500 in one and $1200 in another. I consider this a victory. I have played nearly a year without another deposit. That is staying power. I can slowly increase my bet size and someday get to where I would like to be. For some people this is too small and too slow. Well, it worked for me.

The very best.

Catchn

[Gamble32jn]

Thanks for help. I really appreciate it. What's sad is I do get mad when I lose like crazy and then really go to firing. I been known as the luckiest person there is cause I have been down early in the week plenty of times to sums over 4k and only have $800 left and make it back winner in 2 days. As u can see I'm down 4k going into this morning and went 4-0 early. Would have been 5-0 but the clippers fukked me in the last 26 sec of the game by missing 5 outta 6 free throws. Hope I get lucky on Rays bet cause I took them instead of Baltimore. Got rangers as well and blue jays tonight too.

[Redscot]

Gamblin:

Don't feel bad...it happens all the time. These types of mind games are the main advantage for the books. They don't have to twist you up...you can twist yourself up without any of their help.

When you are betting 1-3% of your true betting bankroll (not what you think you can get your hands on if you really need it), there is no sweating games. It becomes fun. But if you need the rush from big bets, then you should rethink your strategy or get out of the game now!

I have seen many legit 60% winning players lose everything they have. If you cannot figure out how this can happen, then you need to read some books or stuff on the net.

Why do you think a casino will change up BJ Dealers when a player is winning? Do really think a casino with a million dollar a month electric bill alone really believes in luck? No...they are trying to get into the players head...not change their luck.

It is all about you. Forget trying to improve your play win percentage and start to really work on your personal game within the game. It will dramatically increase your winnings much more than more winners will. It is not an easy concept to understand. Once you do, you will never look back.

Take your current BR now and work your percentages from that. Resist the feeling of making smaller bets than you are used to making. If your local cut your limits after you beat him, he is hoping you make many more weak plays to catch up. Don't play into his hand. Make your own "luck".

I started with two online accounts with $200 a piece deposited in them. I now have $500 in one and $1200 in another. I consider this a victory. I have played nearly a year without another deposit. That is staying power. I can slowly increase my bet size and someday get to where I would like to be. For some people this is too small and too slow. Well, it worked for me.

The very best.

Catchn

Well said Catchin. I bet for far too long as a diversion and to enhance my enjoyment of watching the games. Despite being decent at picking games I can't say I was a profitable long term "gambler". One of the reasons I have so much respect for LTA is because since being involved with his threads I have totally changed my view from Gambling to "investing". The thrill of enhancing the game is still there, and I have not reloaded once in a year and a half....actually have been making a steady profit over time. What used to be a very volatile endeavor has become pretty tame, all things considered.

[Catchn_Picks]

Well said Catchin. I bet for far too long as a diversion and to enhance my enjoyment of watching the games. Despite being decent at picking games I can't say I was a profitable long term "gambler". One of the reasons I have so much respect for LTA is because since being involved with his threads I have totally changed my view from Gambling to "investing". The thrill of enhancing the game is still there, and I have not reloaded once in a year and a half....actually have been making a steady profit over time. What used to be a very volatile endeavor has become pretty tame, all things considered.

Thanks Red...at the risk of talking too much already, this is a really important subject. LTA is a very good capper to tail because he already shows discipline and staying power. But following him alone will NOT automatically make you a winner. There are too many players coming here that I suspect are not managing their bankroll well. The key to this game is to stay in the game....to beat the number over long periods of time.

Guys that forget this important issue and lose their heads betting games are doomed to failure. They don't have a 10% chance. They will lose. Picking the right sides or following legitimate cappers that are smart can really help winning of course. But guys that can conquer themselves will remain in the game and steadily win and build their BR and have a much better chance to survive. This has never been a sprinting game...always been a marathon. Too many players treat this like a 40-yard dash! Well, that is real gambling, which is OK, but it is NOT investing so don't EXPECT to win. It's not unlucky when you lose that way. Math can be brutal.

How many cappers have you seen build a string of casinos with their winnings?

That is the enemy we face. They have all of the advantages. This sports betting business is a no bullshit game. It is fun, but serious. But remember that the books want and will take all of your money, if you let them. Players must defend themselves by being very smart and disciplined and not beat themselves. Don't play mind games with yourself

Best to you too Red. You're a class act.

GLTA on the SA/Utah over tonight. If ever Utah should break out with a high scoring home game, it is tonight.

[Love The Action]

Winning or losing doesn't really matter as long as you are getting you bets in at good numbers, since that's all that can be controlled.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/6/2012

Play #1

Phillies/Nationals under (6)(-105) 2x (Locked)

We've had three 1.5x plays so far this season, going 2-1. This will be our first play of 2x or more and I love this pitching matchup for our first 2x play. Zimmerman is at the top of his game so far this year and so is Hamels. Each guy's numbers are improved over the previous year. Interestingly, Zimmerman's biggest improvement is in his GB/FB rate while Hamels has made huge surge in his K%. Neither lineup is striking fear in opposing pitchers this year and most of the guys who have found success against Zimmerman are out of the Phils lineup. On the other side, Hamels has handled this Washinton lineup in the past quite well. The wind is a non-factor and the ump is Andy Fletcher who seems to lean over a bit over the past two season but before that was a reliable under guy. Either way, I like the value here considering I have this total set at 4.65 and it's going to take a final score of 7 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 2x. Good luck.

[Redscot]

Brandon Inge can get the Bozack! Terrible approach in that situation. A's game has been so winnable, now feel like we have probably worn out our welcome to cash this dog. Holding out hope though. Time for fight night! GL on the rest of the evening LTA and all.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/6/2012

Play #1

Phillies/Nationals under (6)(-105) 2x (Locked)

We've had three 1.5x plays so far this season, going 2-1. This will be our first play of 2x or more and I love this pitching matchup for our first 2x play. Zimmerman is at the top of his game so far this year and so is Hamels. Each guy's numbers are improved over the previous year. Interestingly, Zimmerman's biggest improvement is in his GB/FB rate while Hamels has made huge surge in his K%. Neither lineup is striking fear in opposing pitchers this year and most of the guys who have found success against Zimmerman are out of the Phils lineup. On the other side, Hamels has handled this Washinton lineup in the past quite well. The wind is a non-factor and the ump is Andy Fletcher who seems to lean over a bit over the past two season but before that was a reliable under guy. Either way, I like the value here considering I have this total set at 4.65 and it's going to take a final score of 7 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 2x. Good luck.

Play #2

Reds/Pirates under (8)(-105) 1x (Locked)

Here's two guys who I expect to improve as the year goes on. Latos is the strikeout specialist, while Morton is one of the best at throwing ground balls. The Pirates are one of the best under bets this year with their weak lineup and Morton has performed well against this Reds lineup. The weather is a non-factor and the ump is Jim Wolf who is another guy that used to be a big under guy but has favored the over a bit of late. I have this game set at 7 even and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Gamble32jn]

Hope I don't bring u bad luck tailing these 2 for tomorrow...lol

[Catchn_Picks]

Another winning day.

Thanks LTA.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/5/2012 Recap

3 -1 = +2.45x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

67 - 50 - 8 = +15.86x

Good luck on Sunday.

[IXL]

Great pick on the a's LTA, Thanks alot!!!

[underal]

to be up over 15 units in about a month of baseball is extremely impressive. did you have a goal for how many units of profit for the season? personally, i consider 20 units profit to be a reasonable goal for a baseball season.

[jixximal]

Great thread LTA, incredible to see just how often you're beating the line movements. As a long-time 'lurker' in your threads, I've already picked up a lot of knowledge. I tried to send you a PM with a view to asking you a couple of questions, but due to my low post count I can't. I understand you're a busy guy but if you could PM me with an email address I could contact you at, I would be very grateful

Keep up the good work, and let's keep cashin'

[taxe91]

Play #2

Reds/Pirates under (8)(-105) 1x (Locked)

Here's two guys who I expect to improve as the year goes on. Latos is the strikeout specialist, while Morton is one of the best at throwing ground balls. The Pirates are one of the best under bets this year with their weak lineup and Morton has performed well against this Reds lineup. The weather is a non-factor and the ump is Jim Wolf who is another guy that used to be a big under guy but has favored the over a bit of late. I have this game set at 7 even and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

jim wolf was a great unders bet 2 years ago, im sure he had the best O/U record for plays on the under that year. suddenly last year he turned into almost a polar opposite and this year looks like more of the same..

[absolutkaos]

just want to say thanks for another great day LTA. your knowledge & efforts are paying off nicely this season (thus far)....a couple bad days, mixed in with a lot of good ones. just wanted to let you know that your posts are appreciated, and after not following baseball closely for years, i've totally renewed my interest in MLB. cheers!

[brucethebear]

Well said Catchin. I bet for far too long as a diversion and to enhance my enjoyment of watching the games. Despite being decent at picking games I can't say I was a profitable long term "gambler". One of the reasons I have so much respect for LTA is because since being involved with his threads I have totally changed my view from Gambling to "investing". The thrill of enhancing the game is still there, and I have not reloaded once in a year and a half....actually have been making a steady profit over time. What used to be a very volatile endeavor has become pretty tame, all things considered.

I don't think I could have described my own situation any better. I have been following LTA's threads since the start of Football season last year. While I had BR management under control, LTA has taught me that making long term +EV plays at the best price is the key to success.

I finished last MLB season with a small profit, but I made a lot of square plays, and laid a lot of chalk on the way. (Got burnt by a lot of -1.5 RL last year.)
The funny thing is that now,(following the LTA principles) if I continue at the exact same rate I have achieved so far this year, I will have a slightly lower win rate, but will be a LOT more profitable.

The day this past week that was LTA's worst or the year, I was 0-6 and -7u. This time, no chases or multi unit plays to try make it back. It is all solid grinding and 3 days later, those losses are a distant memory.

Anyway, BOL on your plays today gents.

[Love The Action]

jim wolf was a great unders bet 2 years ago, im sure he had the best O/U record for plays on the under that year. suddenly last year he turned into almost a polar opposite and this year looks like more of the same..

O/U records for umpires are just variance, with a true umpire lean coming from strike rate and to some extent their lifetime O/U records. If you look at Wolf's strike percentage, he is consistently above 63%. In 2010, he went 10-22 O/U and last year 18-11 0/U, however, his strike rate was almost identical with both years around 63.6%. You have to remember, there's a heck of a lot more factors than just "umpires" to decide the total of a game. All Wolf can control is his percentage of strikes. He cannot control home runs, hits, errors, etc. As long as he keeps calling strikes above 63%, he is a solid under ump. This year he is under that number, but that is because of the small sample. As the year progresses, that number will go up. GL

[Redscot]

Top O' the mornin' to ya LTA. Getaway day, always tough to put in side bets early without lineup knowledge. Unders are definitely good though because resting a big bat or 2 only gives us better value.

Liking the early picks bro, was even leaning Pirates a little, but like the under better.

Interesting match up in Tampa today contrasting styles of young pitchers, the sexy pick Moore with his blazing cheese against the under the radar crafty lefty in Milone. Looking forward to watching this one.

Couple of pitcher thoughts:
-Williams for the Angels is flying under the radar the last year and change now and rocks a 10% swinging strike .
-WTF happend to Ubaldo, guy can't miss a bat
- Wainwright's advanced stats suggest he is ok, still striking guys out at a high rate as well
- I think Hughes turns it around soon, but being a fly ball pitcher in Yankee stadium has to F uck with your approach at times.

Looking forward to seeing what else you got today

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/6/2012

Play #1

Phillies/Nationals under (6)(-105) 2x (Locked)

We've had three 1.5x plays so far this season, going 2-1. This will be our first play of 2x or more and I love this pitching matchup for our first 2x play. Zimmerman is at the top of his game so far this year and so is Hamels. Each guy's numbers are improved over the previous year. Interestingly, Zimmerman's biggest improvement is in his GB/FB rate while Hamels has made huge surge in his K%. Neither lineup is striking fear in opposing pitchers this year and most of the guys who have found success against Zimmerman are out of the Phils lineup. On the other side, Hamels has handled this Washinton lineup in the past quite well. The wind is a non-factor and the ump is Andy Fletcher who seems to lean over a bit over the past two season but before that was a reliable under guy. Either way, I like the value here considering I have this total set at 4.65 and it's going to take a final score of 7 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 2x. Good luck.

Play #2

Reds/Pirates under (8)(-105) 1x (Locked)

Here's two guys who I expect to improve as the year goes on. Latos is the strikeout specialist, while Morton is one of the best at throwing ground balls. The Pirates are one of the best under bets this year with their weak lineup and Morton has performed well against this Reds lineup. The weather is a non-factor and the ump is Jim Wolf who is another guy that used to be a big under guy but has favored the over a bit of late. I have this game set at 7 even and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

ML Parlay

Rangers ML/Devil Rays ML (+159) 1x (Locked)

I don't play a lot of moneyline parlays and this is my first of the season, but I will pull the trigger when I think we have a better probability of cashing than the odds provided. In this case, we have the better starting pitchers and the better offenses. Both teams are looking to win the rubber game of their respective series and I see no reason why they don't get it done. Ubaldo Jiminez has a poor history against Texas and has horrible advanced numbers this year. Darvish, however, has looked very impressive in both his ability to get ground balls as evidenced by his 1.88 GB/FB and strikeouts as evidenced by his 22% K%. In the other game, both Milone and Moore have the unfamiliarity factor going for them and both guys have very similar numbers this year. However, Moore passes the "eye" test much better than Milone. While I do think Milone will be a solid back of the rotation guy, Moore is a top of the rotation elite-type talent. Tampa will be looking to bounce back after losing yesterday and I think they do just that. Texas should also rap up their "rubber" game and I am going to play them both on the moneyline for 1x. Good luck.

[Prof Bungletree]

That's funny, I glanced at the parlay and for just a second my brain said "he's playing hockey now?"

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/6/2012

Play #1

Phillies/Nationals under (6)(-105) 2x (Locked)

We've had three 1.5x plays so far this season, going 2-1. This will be our first play of 2x or more and I love this pitching matchup for our first 2x play. Zimmerman is at the top of his game so far this year and so is Hamels. Each guy's numbers are improved over the previous year. Interestingly, Zimmerman's biggest improvement is in his GB/FB rate while Hamels has made huge surge in his K%. Neither lineup is striking fear in opposing pitchers this year and most of the guys who have found success against Zimmerman are out of the Phils lineup. On the other side, Hamels has handled this Washinton lineup in the past quite well. The wind is a non-factor and the ump is Andy Fletcher who seems to lean over a bit over the past two season but before that was a reliable under guy. Either way, I like the value here considering I have this total set at 4.65 and it's going to take a final score of 7 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 2x. Good luck.

Play #2

Reds/Pirates under (8)(-105) 1x (Locked)

Here's two guys who I expect to improve as the year goes on. Latos is the strikeout specialist, while Morton is one of the best at throwing ground balls. The Pirates are one of the best under bets this year with their weak lineup and Morton has performed well against this Reds lineup. The weather is a non-factor and the ump is Jim Wolf who is another guy that used to be a big under guy but has favored the over a bit of late. I have this game set at 7 even and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

ML Parlay

Rangers ML/Devil Rays ML (+159) 1x (Locked)

I don't play a lot of moneyline parlays and this is my first of the season, but I will pull the trigger when I think we have a better probability of cashing than the odds provided. In this case, we have the better starting pitchers and the better offenses. Both teams are looking to win the rubber game of their respective series and I see no reason why they don't get it done. Ubaldo Jiminez has a poor history against Texas and has horrible advanced numbers this year. Darvish, however, has looked very impressive in both his ability to get ground balls as evidenced by his 1.88 GB/FB and strikeouts as evidenced by his 22% K%. In the other game, both Milone and Moore have the unfamiliarity factor going for them and both guys have very similar numbers this year. However, Moore passes the "eye" test much better than Milone. While I do think Milone will be a solid back of the rotation guy, Moore is a top of the rotation elite-type talent. Tampa will be looking to bounce back after losing yesterday and I think they do just that. Texas should also rap up their "rubber" game and I am going to play them both on the moneyline for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Diamondbacks/Mets under (7)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I was torn on whether to play the under or to play AZ as I think they are both very good plays. However, I think the under is the slightly better play. If I were able to get 7.5, I would probably make this a 1.25x or more play. I have this game set at 6.08 so not quite a full run of value, but enough to make this play. Cahill has been pitching well and has the unfamiliarity factor working in his favor. We have been backing him all year on unders to profit, which would have been much more had we not suffered some bad beats due to bullpen failures. Dickey has not fared particularly well against AZ in the past, but the knuckleball is a curious pitch that depends on a multitude of factors which may not transfer over from game to game. Dickey himself has been pitching well this year, except for 1 game against Atlanta when he gave up 8 runs. All of his other starters have yielded 3 or less earned runs. I expect Cahill to manage that Mets lineup quite well and a quality start from Dickey should ensure us this play. Bob Davidson is the ump with a nice strike rate generally above 63% and the weather is blowing in across the field from the East at slow 5-8mph. I have this one set at 6.08 and it's going to take a final score of 8 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Redscot]

Play #4

Diamondbacks/Mets under (7)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I was torn on whether to play the under or to play AZ as I think they are both very good plays. However, I think the under is the slightly better play. If I were able to get 7.5, I would probably make this a 1.25x or more play. I have this game set at 6.08 so not quite a full run of value, but enough to make this play. Cahill has been pitching well and has the unfamiliarity factor working in his favor. We have been backing him all year on unders to profit, which would have been much more had we not suffered some bad beats due to bullpen failures. Dickey has not fared particularly well against AZ in the past, but the knuckleball is a curious pitch that depends on a multitude of factors which may not transfer over from game to game. Dickey himself has been pitching well this year, except for 1 game against Atlanta when he gave up 8 runs. All of his other starters have yielded 3 or less earned runs. I expect Cahill to manage that Mets lineup quite well and a quality start from Dickey should ensure us this play. Bob Davidson is the ump with a nice strike rate generally above 63% and the weather is blowing in across the field from the East at slow 5-8mph. I have this one set at 6.08 and it's going to take a final score of 8 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Humidity in the mid to high 50's today in NYC is beneficial to the knuckler as well.

On another note looks like McCutchen out for the Pirates today, that's nice for our under.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/6/2012

Play #1

Phillies/Nationals under (6)(-105) 2x (Locked)

We've had three 1.5x plays so far this season, going 2-1. This will be our first play of 2x or more and I love this pitching matchup for our first 2x play. Zimmerman is at the top of his game so far this year and so is Hamels. Each guy's numbers are improved over the previous year. Interestingly, Zimmerman's biggest improvement is in his GB/FB rate while Hamels has made huge surge in his K%. Neither lineup is striking fear in opposing pitchers this year and most of the guys who have found success against Zimmerman are out of the Phils lineup. On the other side, Hamels has handled this Washinton lineup in the past quite well. The wind is a non-factor and the ump is Andy Fletcher who seems to lean over a bit over the past two season but before that was a reliable under guy. Either way, I like the value here considering I have this total set at 4.65 and it's going to take a final score of 7 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 2x. Good luck.

Play #2

Reds/Pirates under (8)(-105) 1x (Locked)

Here's two guys who I expect to improve as the year goes on. Latos is the strikeout specialist, while Morton is one of the best at throwing ground balls. The Pirates are one of the best under bets this year with their weak lineup and Morton has performed well against this Reds lineup. The weather is a non-factor and the ump is Jim Wolf who is another guy that used to be a big under guy but has favored the over a bit of late. I have this game set at 7 even and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

ML Parlay

Rangers ML/Devil Rays ML (+159) 1x (Locked)

I don't play a lot of moneyline parlays and this is my first of the season, but I will pull the trigger when I think we have a better probability of cashing than the odds provided. In this case, we have the better starting pitchers and the better offenses. Both teams are looking to win the rubber game of their respective series and I see no reason why they don't get it done. Ubaldo Jiminez has a poor history against Texas and has horrible advanced numbers this year. Darvish, however, has looked very impressive in both his ability to get ground balls as evidenced by his 1.88 GB/FB and strikeouts as evidenced by his 22% K%. In the other game, both Milone and Moore have the unfamiliarity factor going for them and both guys have very similar numbers this year. However, Moore passes the "eye" test much better than Milone. While I do think Milone will be a solid back of the rotation guy, Moore is a top of the rotation elite-type talent. Tampa will be looking to bounce back after losing yesterday and I think they do just that. Texas should also rap up their "rubber" game and I am going to play them both on the moneyline for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Diamondbacks/Mets under (7)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I was torn on whether to play the under or to play AZ as I think they are both very good plays. However, I think the under is the slightly better play. If I were able to get 7.5, I would probably make this a 1.25x or more play. I have this game set at 6.08 so not quite a full run of value, but enough to make this play. Cahill has been pitching well and has the unfamiliarity factor working in his favor. We have been backing him all year on unders to profit, which would have been much more had we not suffered some bad beats due to bullpen failures. Dickey has not fared particularly well against AZ in the past, but the knuckleball is a curious pitch that depends on a multitude of factors which may not transfer over from game to game. Dickey himself has been pitching well this year, except for 1 game against Atlanta when he gave up 8 runs. All of his other starters have yielded 3 or less earned runs. I expect Cahill to manage that Mets lineup quite well and a quality start from Dickey should ensure us this play. Bob Davidson is the ump with a nice strike rate generally above 63% and the weather is blowing in across the field from the East at slow 5-8mph. I have this one set at 6.08 and it's going to take a final score of 8 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Braves/Rockies under (9) 1x (Locked)

Here's an interesting play that started to get juiced on the under, so I'm locking in -110 now. Despite the last two game opening at 10 and getting to 10.5 or a juiced up over, only to see those games eclipse 15 runs, this game opens up at 9 and sees early under money. Hmm..are the books tipping their hand? I think so, considering my model has this at 8.03. I think there are a few reasons for this and some additional factors pointing to the under here. First, Beachy is pitching very well right now and has increased his GB/FB rate over 1 which makes him very formidable considering strikeouts are his specialty. Nicasio is starting to round into shape after the accident with some nice performances, which have also made us some money. The weather is not hot like it has been the last two days as it's in the high 50's as opposed to the mid 80's which should help those pitchers retain some energy. The ump is Brian Runge who has a huge under lean and strike rate above 64% for the majority of his career. You can't make a living playing unders at Coors, but this is one spot where I think the under is the right play and I am rolling that way for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Humidity in the mid to high 50's today in NYC is beneficial to the knuckler as well.

On another note looks like McCutchen out for the Pirates today, that's nice for our under.

Nice....thanks for the info.

What did you think of the fight?

[Ryan138]

Nice, I like a lot of those plays today!

[Redscot]

Nice....thanks for the info.

What did you think of the fight?

Pretty much what I expected, Mayweather may be a prick, but he is a true maestro in the ring. Cotto gave a good showing of himself all things considered. What really surprised me was their ages, Mayweather is 35 (wow time flies) and Cotto 31 but the wear and tear is not comparable, Cotto has been through some wars.

Watched some of Paulino against the Yanks too, , this is starting to border on a man crush . Guy has so much talent, just lacks in the focus department at times and things can blow up on him quickly.

Looks like a great card thus far bro, you thinking of any NBA today?

[Catchn_Picks]

ML Parlay?!

This is going to be an exciting day.

Let's go!