LTA's MLB Plays

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/4/2012

Play #1

Brewers/Giants under (6)(+100) 1x (Locked)

I have this game set at 5 even giving us one run of value and it's going to take a final score of 7 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Twins ML (+134) 1x (Locked)

Neither team is playing very well and the Twins are probably playing worse than the Mariners considering that the Twins just got no-hit by Weaver. However, Pavano and Vargas are very similar according to the advanced stats and the Mariners lineup is no more of a murderer's row than Minny. This is a pure value play as the Mariners are clearly overpriced in this game because of the negative public perception surrounding the Twins which is giving us about 19 cents of value at this price. I have the Twins set at +115 and we are getting +134. That is too much value to pass up regardless of Morneau's status (who might still play) and I am rolling with the Twins for 1x. Good luck.

[Catchn_Picks]

Yesterday, I was having a discussion with one of my friends who happens to be a financial planner. This is one of my very few friends who actually knows that I invest in the sports markets and we started to talk about the similarities between his managing of 401K's, other retirement funds and general stock market investments to my investments in the sports markets. He also will make occasional sports wagers so he understands the business, but does not invest seriously in sports. Throughout our discussions the similarities between the two industries were striking and just reenforces my point that we should all approach this business as though we are trading stocks or as if we were our own financial advisor.

Both investment strategies require intelligence, discipline and money management to be successful. In addition, both the sports investor and financial specialist needs to understand market principles, including but not limited to the market efficiency concepts. If people operated their sports investments just like their financial advisor operates their other investments, most would be more successful in sports markets.

Throughout our discussion, it became clear that the main obstacle in sports "gamblers" as opposed to "investors" is the degeneracy in making "action" wagers and parlay wagers which are not correlated and have no positive expected value. I pride myself on not making a play unless I have distinct and discernible edge. Likewise, in financial markets, the stock trader or hedge fund manager only makes those trades that he has researched thoroughly and feels as though has has an edge on the rest of the market. Consequently, if most people approached sports investing with this mindset, they would be much more successful.

This conversation really confirmed my belief that we should all approach this business as though we were financial experts in the stock market or similar field. To that end, I started reading a few articles on the similarities and though I would share. Here are the links for your reading pleasure. Enjoy!

http://www.thinkingbettor.com/sports-betting-efficient-market/

http://beyondthebets.com/forum/showthread.php?tid=1959

http://www.betstarter.com/SportsBetting/BettingAsInvestmentArticle.asp

http://blogmaverick.com/2004/11/27/my-new-hedge-fund/ (see even Mark Cuban agrees LOL)

http://www.wired.com/magazine/2010/11/ff_midas/all/1

My nomination for post of the year.

Big day today...GL all.

[brucethebear]

Cheers for posting catch.
(somehow I missed it on the previous page :/

[CHAZ]

Play #2

Twins ML (+134) 1x (Locked)

Neither team is playing very well and the Twins are probably playing worse than the Mariners considering that the Twins just got no-hit by Weaver. However, Pavano and Vargas are very similar according to the advanced stats and the Mariners lineup is no more of a murderer's row than Minny. This is a pure value play as the Mariners are clearly overpriced in this game because of the negative public perception surrounding the Twins which is giving us about 19 cents of value at this price. I have the Twins set at +115 and we are getting +134. That is too much value to pass up regardless of Morneau's status (who might still play) and I am rolling with the Twins for 1x. Good luck.

Something to add also is that the Mariners went from Toronto to Tampa and then back all the way home to Seattle without a day off.

[No coincidences]

Something to add also is that the Mariners went from Toronto to Tampa and then back all the way home to Seattle without a day off.

Good addition, CHAZ.

[pacocn]

Lta, brilliant comparison between stock market and
sports investing. Once i saw that the Twins line dropped
to 127 i held off on the play. Are you familiar with the Motley
Fools investment group? I really like these guys and they are
continually looking for value plays in the stock market. Their current
value play is Dream Works. Check them out if you aren't familiar with them. However,
to the best of my knowledge, they don't dabble in sports investing. Nice call on Twins for the EV

[pacocn]

Lta, Does your model have 5 for the Lincecum/Grienke match up
based on this years statistics or the past few years. I am just curious, because
I cannot back this play with both of these pitchers current form.

[Love The Action]

Lta, Does your model have 5 for the Lincecum/Grienke match up
based on this years statistics or the past few years. I am just curious, because
I cannot back this play with both of these pitchers current form.

My model uses both career numbers and current stats....GL

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/4/2012

Play #1

Brewers/Giants under (6)(+100) 1x (Locked)

I have this game set at 5 even giving us one run of value and it's going to take a final score of 7 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Twins ML (+134) 1x (Locked)

Neither team is playing very well and the Twins are probably playing worse than the Mariners considering that the Twins just got no-hit by Weaver. However, Pavano and Vargas are very similar according to the advanced stats and the Mariners lineup is no more of a murderer's row than Minny. This is a pure value play as the Mariners are clearly overpriced in this game because of the negative public perception surrounding the Twins which is giving us about 19 cents of value at this price. I have the Twins set at +115 and we are getting +134. That is too much value to pass up regardless of Morneau's status (who might still play) and I am rolling with the Twins for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Nationals -1RL (-121) 1x (Locked)

Once the ml price dropped, I think we are getting a decent deal on Strasburg on the -1RL and I'm going to take a shot with kendrick having such a poor history against the nationals. Good luck.

[t-wizzle]

Looks like you are doing well so far this year. Nice job.

You probably have already said this but out of curiosity what book(s) do you use and/or do you use a local?

[fitguy67]

here's a very straightforward yet eye-opening comparison of sport-investing with stock-market investing...it points out a few clear advantages of the former over the latter...it'd make a nice lightweight on-ramp to the articles just suggested by LTA

http://bettingresource.com/sports-betting-vs-stock-market-trading.html

[Love The Action]

Looks like you are doing well so far this year. Nice job.

You probably have already said this but out of curiosity what book(s) do you use and/or do you use a local?

Same to you. I use two locals, but am thinking of adding an offshore book. I was hoping to get a recommendation from a few people, but haven't had much luck.

My one local has 10 cent MLB lines similar to what 5D/Pinny has, except that when Pinny starts juicing heavy, my local will move the have point. They do the same thing in NBA, whenever Pinny juices to -110 in basketball, my local moves the half point in that direction.

My other local is similar to Legends lines and is a more "square." I only get 20 cent lines on ML with that local, but his website gives good odds on totals. I end betting mostly with my local with 10 cent lines when it comes to ML bets and then putting a lot of totals with the other guy.

I would like to put $5k-$8k offshore so I can expand my outs, but I haven't heard of reliable way to get that money safely to the books without hassles and I'm not sure if I can trust my money with any offshore book considering that I am American.

It works out well with my locals, because my "agent" is one of my grammar school friends who I have known for most of life. That way, I know I'm going to get paid and vice versa. The other guy I met about three years ago and has always been reputable.

Where do you play?

[Catchn_Picks]

"It works out well with my locals, because my "agent" is one of my grammar school friends who I have known for most of life."

And they say that school relationships don't last and aren't helpful.

[Love The Action]

Wow....Washington has stranded 14 baserunners tonight

[Love The Action]

Kicking myself for not playing my lean on the Rockies/Braves over....

[SlickRick1382]

I would like to put $5k-$8k offshore so I can expand my outs, but I haven't heard of reliable way to get that money safely to the books without hassles and I'm not sure if I can trust my money with any offshore book considering that I am American.

Why not keep just what you need as you need it?

Have 2-3k or whatever you need to bet and add / reduce as you need or no longer need the money. I only keep enough on 5 Dimes to handle my current bets (which isn't a lot since most of it goes through my local) and reload if I run low but usually just cash out a portion at predetermined amounts

Just food for thought since I'm like you in the aspect that I don't trust books with my money so I try to keep my risk as low as possible

[Love The Action]

Looks like a bad decision to trust Lincecum....I had thought he had sort of started to put it together with a couple nice starts in a row, but not tonight. Really need this Twins play now after I push on yet another -1RL play.

[Jkon9]

Lincecum almost screwed up the under in the 2nd inning. With you on the Twins and the Giants under

[remypom]

We were lucky to push. Was either lose or push so not too bad. Live to fight another day! GGood call on bulls under lta

[IXL]

Nice hit on the twins LTA!

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/4/2012 Recap

1 - 1 - 1 = +0.34x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

64 - 49 - 8 = +13.41x

Good luck on Saturday.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/5/2012

Play #1

Cardinals/Astros under (8)(+100) 1x (Locked)

I like this pitching matchup despite the strength of the offenses. My model has this at 7.03 and I will play the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/5/2012

Play #1

Cardinals/Astros under (8)(+100) (Locked)

I like this pitching matchup despite the strength of the offenses. My model has this at 7.03 and I will play the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Nationals ML (-125) 1x (Locked)

None of the Phillies hitters are very well right now against lefties and Gio is one of the toughest out there, plus he has the unfamiliarity factor working in his favor coming over from the AL. Joe West is the umpire and he has a strong home team lean throughout his career. I have this game set at -131 giving us six cents of value and I am rolling with the Nationals for 1x. Good luck.

[spladle08]

Play #2

Nationals ML (-125) 1x (Locked)

None of the Phillies hitters are very well right now against lefties and Gio is one of the toughest out there, plus he has the unfamiliarity factor working in his favor coming over from the AL. Joe West is the umpire and he has a strong home team lean throughout his career.I have this game set at -135 giving us an even ten cents of value and I am rolling with the Phillies for 1x. Good luck.

You are betting that nationals right?

[TC Woods]

Play #2

Nationals ML (-125) 1x (Locked)

None of the Phillies hitters are very well right now against lefties and Gio is one of the toughest out there, plus he has the unfamiliarity factor working in his favor coming over from the AL. Joe West is the umpire and he has a strong home team lean throughout his career.I have this game set at -135 giving us an even ten cents of value and I am rolling with the Phillies for 1x. Good luck.

I'm assuming you meant "rolling with the Nats......"

[spladle08]

ok cool, I will tail like tailster... for the new standard bet of the day, 2.75u gl gl gl

[Smutbucket]

All over the nats today,

[Catchn_Picks]

You are betting that nationals right?

Maybe it's one of those George Constanza opposite moments.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKUvKE3bQlY

[spladle08]

Maybe it's one of those George Constanza opposite moments.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKUvKE3bQlY

I honestly assumed this was what was going on...

[Jkon9]

Maybe it's one of those George Constanza opposite moments.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKUvKE3bQlY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yoPf98i8A0g

My wallet after the Nationals game

[Redscot]

Lookin' good in here as always my man . Couple of quick questions. You think the value is gone on Braves? How about fat boy at +140ish against Hell boy? Our boy Paulino is back today, made some nice coin off him last year, gonna monitor him and see how he looks.

Looking forward to the rest of your plays. GL

[Love The Action]

You are betting that nationals right?

Yes. Sorry. Fixed it

[Love The Action]

Lookin' good in here as always my man . Couple of quick questions. You think the value is gone on Braves? How about fat boy at +140ish against Hell boy? Our boy Paulino is back today, made some nice coin off him last year, gonna monitor him and see how he looks.

Looking forward to the rest of your plays. GL

I was going to bet the Braves last night at -115 but I passed out before I could finish capping the game and by the time I woke up it was already in the -120's. Yes, most of the value is gone on that game. Plus, with the ball flying at Coors, anything can happen. Moyer is pitching well for a 49 year old...wow, it's so weird even typing that.

I am considering the A's. That is a pretty strong lean.

I can't back Paulino in any way today, just because it's his first start off the DL. That's usually a fade spot for me, so I will let him get settled and see how he looks before I start backing him again.

Glad to have you back....

[Redscot]

I was going to bet the Braves last night at -115 but I passed out before I could finish capping the game and by the time I woke up it was already in the -120's. Yes, most of the value is gone on that game. Plus, with the ball flying at Coors, anything can happen. Moyer is pitching well for a 49 year old...wow, it's so weird even typing that.

I am considering the A's. That is a pretty strong lean.

I can't back Paulino in any way today, just because it's his first start off the DL. That's usually a fade spot for me, so I will let him get settled and see how he looks before I start backing him again.

Glad to have you back....

No doubt on Paulino today, and to top it off it is against a patient Yank's lineup, ouchy. Hopefully he gets hammered and sets up some future under value for us

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/5/2012

Play #1

Cardinals/Astros under (8)(+100) 1x (Locked)

I like this pitching matchup despite the strength of the offenses. My model has this at 7.03 and I will play the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Nationals ML (-125) 1x (Locked)

None of the Phillies hitters are very well right now against lefties and Gio is one of the toughest out there, plus he has the unfamiliarity factor working in his favor coming over from the AL. Joe West is the umpire and he has a strong home team lean throughout his career. I have this game set at -131 giving us six cents of value and I am rolling with the Nationals for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Athletics ML (+145) 1x (Locked)

I expect this number to drop at some point today down into the +130's. Hellickson is overpriced in this spot coming off a late win over King Felix (ended up as a loss for us) with 80% of all bets coming in on TB. However, the price has pretty much stayed static give or take a few cents. Colon has pitched well so far this season, just like he did last season and that is giving us some value. Other than Marquis and Minny who are facing Hernandez's Mariners, Colon and the A's are the biggest dog on the board and that is fueled entirely by public perception. Hellickson is rocking a .220's BABIP and a LOB% over 90%. Those number are going to come down and I would not be surprised to see Oakland get 3 or more runs in this game. Paul Nauert is the umpire today and he is not a friendly umpire to home teams, so hopefully he has some mercy on the old, fat man, Bartolo Colon. I have this game set at +132 giving us over ten cents of value on this game and I am rolling with the A's for 1x. Good luck.