LTA's MLB Plays

**Love The Action** · 05-09-12, 08:34 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

Love this play, confident we finish the night in the black. Let's get this biznich and start a new run.

I need a winner in the NBA too....playing the Clip/Mem under.

**Redscot** · 05-09-12, 08:47 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

I need a winner in the NBA too....playing the Clip/Mem under.

Oh, I know brother, I am riding that one with you as well....let's do this!

**bmur714** · 05-09-12, 09:21 PM

BOL on the late play.... Finishing in the black would be refreshing

**Love The Action** · 05-09-12, 10:51 PM

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/10/2012

Play #1

Devil Rays/Yankees under (8)(-115) 1x (Locked)

I tend to think we see this one drop down to 7.5 tomorrow. If it doesn't, then we know the high winds (18 mph) they expect to be blowing across the field have shifted to blow out to right. Nevertheless, I expect us to have some buyout options if necessary. Both Price and Sabathia are really rounding into form nicely and both have advanced stats off the chart which is really no surprise for these top tier guys. With both guys being lefties, we will have more right handed hitters in the lineup which should help minimize the wind to right. The ump is Estabrook who is a pretty solid under leaning ump. I have this game set at 7 even and it's going to take a final score of 9 to beat us. I don't see it getting that high and I am rolling with the under for 1x noting that we must monitor the wind. Good luck.

**SlickRick1382** · 05-09-12, 10:58 PM

Nice. Was looking at both that play and the under for the Pirates / Nationals ....

**Love The Action** · 05-09-12, 11:21 PM

What is wrong with Detroit's offense? Every night now, they just cannot hit. One run?!? Ugh...

**Love The Action** · 05-09-12, 11:30 PM

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/9/2012 Recap

2 - 3 = -1.37x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

75 - 61 - 10 = +10.04x

Braves can't score against the Cubs and Detroit can't score against Seattle. Back to the grind...

**No coincidences** · 05-10-12, 12:26 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/10/2012

Play #1

Devil Rays/Yankees under (8)(-115) 1x (Locked)

I tend to think we see this one drop down to 7.5 tomorrow. If it doesn't, then we know the high winds (18 mph) they expect to be blowing across the field have shifted to blow out to right. Nevertheless, I expect us to have some buyout options if necessary. Both Price and Sabathia are really rounding into form nicely and both have advanced stats off the chart which is really no surprise for these top tier guys. With both guys being lefties, we will have more right handed hitters in the lineup which should help minimize the wind to right. The ump is Estabrook who is a pretty solid under leaning ump. I have this game set at 7 even and it's going to take a final score of 9 to beat us. I don't see it getting that high and I am rolling with the under for 1x noting that we must monitor the wind. Good luck.

Are you surprised Tampa is +142?

**fitguy67** · 05-10-12, 02:04 AM

re: umpire data...another good one-stop shop for data is a sticky thread at the top of the mlb forum at "capping the game dot com"...a great group of guys collaborate to keep it up to the minute

**Redscot** · 05-10-12, 06:19 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

What is wrong with Detroit's offense? Every night now, they just cannot hit. One run?!? Ugh...

You ain't kidding.

Smyly did his job.

Nice hit in the NBA btw, even a 100 pt. first half couldn't keep that one down.

**Love The Action** · 05-10-12, 07:14 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/10/2012

Play #1

Devil Rays/Yankees under (8)(-115) 1x (Locked)

I tend to think we see this one drop down to 7.5 tomorrow. If it doesn't, then we know the high winds (18 mph) they expect to be blowing across the field have shifted to blow out to right. Nevertheless, I expect us to have some buyout options if necessary. Both Price and Sabathia are really rounding into form nicely and both have advanced stats off the chart which is really no surprise for these top tier guys. With both guys being lefties, we will have more right handed hitters in the lineup which should help minimize the wind to right. The ump is Estabrook who is a pretty solid under leaning ump. I have this game set at 7 even and it's going to take a final score of 9 to beat us. I don't see it getting that high and I am rolling with the under for 1x noting that we must monitor the wind. Good luck.

Play #2

Nationals -1RL (-130) 1x (Locked)

I probably should have just paid the -160 ML price, but I'm not a fan of that much juice. Even though the Natties are struggling for runs with a without some of their main guys like Zimmerman and Werth, I still have to think they have enough to beat the Pirates in this spot after losing last night. Correia is scuffling of late and his advanced numbers are nothing to write home about. Here's a guy with a FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA all above a 4.1, he doesn't strike out anyone with a K% of 9% and while he is one of the better ground ball pitchers, his BABIP is so low at .21 that a huge upswing in his advanced numbers is extremely unlikely. On the other side, Strasburg has met his own hype and exceeded it. The guy is special and his advanced numbers prove that point as they are just off the chart. Here's a guy with top 5 FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA numbers all around 2.7. His K% is at 26% and he's got a solid GB/FG of 1.3. Bottom line is that there is just nothing this kid cannot do with a baseball and the time to back him is now before his innings cap is expired. I actually have the Natties set at -180 so there is still value in the ML, but I'm going to take the cheaper -1RL price for 1x and risk the push. Good luck.

**faheemrob** · 05-10-12, 07:23 AM

Pretty hard to bet against strasburg...what you think about the under

**Love The Action** · 05-10-12, 08:20 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Are you surprised Tampa is +142?

I think the yanks are overpriced by about ten cents and would expect them to close in the +130 range. I also think the books are taking a pretty strong position on the yanks and would think twice before playing the rays despite the value. GL

**Pluthero** · 05-10-12, 08:28 AM

I'm on the Nats with you, but I took the money line for 2 units. Zimmerman returned to the lineup yesterday and should play today. Good luck.

**Redscot** · 05-10-12, 09:19 AM

I may just be a glutton for punishment because I was ready to go back to the Detroit well again today. Just feel like the (mis) perception of Colon and Scherzer could not be more advantageous than tonight. They have pretty much been a wash this year if you analyze their advanced stats (Colon has some scary low ss%) yet their era's are worlds apart. Despite Detroit's offense being in a funk they definitely have a superior lineup. Value is starting to escape on this one though, wish I had jumped on it overnight. Any thoughts here LTA?

**CHAZ** · 05-10-12, 09:52 AM

Loving the TAM/NYY under today LTA! Good luck and keep up the good work

**No coincidences** · 05-10-12, 10:07 AM

Originally posted by Redscot

I may just be a glutton for punishment because I was ready to go back to the Detroit well again today. Just feel like the (mis) perception of Colon and Scherzer could not be more advantageous than tonight. They have pretty much been a wash this year if you analyze their advanced stats (Colon has some scary low ss%) yet their era's are worlds apart. Despite Detroit's offense being in a funk they definitely have a superior lineup. Value is starting to escape on this one though, wish I had jumped on it overnight. Any thoughts here LTA?

Don't mean to butt in, but I'm with you in spirit Red. This Tiger team is really scuffling though. I think Scherzer will do his part, but the offense is just MIA right now.

**hundredbombs** · 05-10-12, 10:08 AM

Is there something fishy with the tb/nyy moneyline?

I'm seeing Tampa around +150 with price having a 5-2 record against the yanks while cc is 1-4 against the rays.

**Redscot** · 05-10-12, 10:22 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Don't mean to butt in, but I'm with you in spirit Red. This Tiger team is really scuffling though. I think Scherzer will do his part, but the offense is just MIA right now.

Appreciate your input always NoCo. What's the deal with them, any scuttlebutt in the local news?

**darkmatter117** · 05-10-12, 10:26 AM

Originally posted by hundredbombs

Is there something fishy with the tb/nyy moneyline?

Look at post #6803.

**No coincidences** · 05-10-12, 10:26 AM

Originally posted by Redscot

Appreciate your input always NoCo. What's the deal with them, any scuttlebutt in the local news?

They have no No. 2 or 5 hitter right now. Boesch is really struggling, and Raburn is arguably the worst hitter in baseball.

No team speed, mediocre (at best) bullpen, suspect defense -- but hey, at least they'll be able to win a lot of 10-7 games once the heat kicks in.

I'd just take the under here and forget about the side.

**Love The Action** · 05-10-12, 10:44 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/10/2012

Play #1

Devil Rays/Yankees under (8)(-115) 1x (Locked)

I tend to think we see this one drop down to 7.5 tomorrow. If it doesn't, then we know the high winds (18 mph) they expect to be blowing across the field have shifted to blow out to right. Nevertheless, I expect us to have some buyout options if necessary. Both Price and Sabathia are really rounding into form nicely and both have advanced stats off the chart which is really no surprise for these top tier guys. With both guys being lefties, we will have more right handed hitters in the lineup which should help minimize the wind to right. The ump is Estabrook who is a pretty solid under leaning ump. I have this game set at 7 even and it's going to take a final score of 9 to beat us. I don't see it getting that high and I am rolling with the under for 1x noting that we must monitor the wind. Good luck.

Play #2

Nationals -1RL (-130) 1x (Locked)

I probably should have just paid the -160 ML price, but I'm not a fan of that much juice. Even though the Natties are struggling for runs with a without some of their main guys like Zimmerman and Werth, I still have to think they have enough to beat the Pirates in this spot after losing last night. Correia is scuffling of late and his advanced numbers are nothing to write home about. Here's a guy with a FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA all above a 4.1, he doesn't strike out anyone with a K% of 9% and while he is one of the better ground ball pitchers, his BABIP is so low at .21 that a huge upswing in his advanced numbers is extremely unlikely. On the other side, Strasburg has met his own hype and exceeded it. The guy is special and his advanced numbers prove that point as they are just off the chart. Here's a guy with top 5 FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA numbers all around 2.7. His K% is at 26% and he's got a solid GB/FG of 1.3. Bottom line is that there is just nothing this kid cannot do with a baseball and the time to back him is now before his innings cap is expired. I actually have the Natties set at -180 so there is still value in the ML, but I'm going to take the cheaper -1RL price for 1x and risk the push. Good luck.

Play #3

Tigers ML (-117) 1x (Locked)

I wasted about ten cents by not pulling the trigger earlier but we are still getting about four cents of value here considering I have the tigers set at -121 assuming Cespedes does not play. Although Colon has pitched well this year, the tigers know what to expect and have hit him hard in the past. In addition, even though the tigers are struggling on offense, they are hitting much better against righties than lefties (top 10 v top 20). Despite Scherzers struggles this season, the advanced stats say that is more due to bad luck and fielding than anything else considering his BABIP over .4 and his SIERA of 3.4. Plus, he is missing a lot of bats with a 24% k% and SwStr% of 12.3% which are both career highs. I think the tigers break out of their slump today with Scherzer pitching well and I am rolling with the tigers for 1x. Good luck.

**Love The Action** · 05-10-12, 10:48 AM

Originally posted by Redscot

I may just be a glutton for punishment because I was ready to go back to the Detroit well again today. Just feel like the (mis) perception of Colon and Scherzer could not be more advantageous than tonight. They have pretty much been a wash this year if you analyze their advanced stats (Colon has some scary low ss%) yet their era's are worlds apart. Despite Detroit's offense being in a funk they definitely have a superior lineup. Value is starting to escape on this one though, wish I had jumped on it overnight. Any thoughts here LTA?

Looks like great minds think alike....or is it folks seldom differ

Good luck!

**Redscot** · 05-10-12, 10:53 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Looks like great minds think alike....or is it folks seldom differ

Good luck!

You remembered my dad's pet phrase.

, although I think you made a typo as it is fools seldom differ

. BOL on the card, looking good. Will be popping over to NBA later and see what you are up to.

**bmur714** · 05-10-12, 11:08 AM

Stupid iPhone... Double post

**bmur714** · 05-10-12, 11:08 AM

Wow... My local already moved to -125 for the tigers... I guess he subscribes to LTA's thread... -EV now

**Pross1** · 05-10-12, 11:13 AM

Any of you guys liking TOR -1RL? I already jumped on it. I like this Henderson Alverez guy a lot and the Twins have only scored 15 runs in their last 6 games........while hitting .164 over that span. Gross.

**wguan2** · 05-10-12, 12:11 PM

edit

**Redscot** · 05-10-12, 03:11 PM

No Cuban missile tonight in Oak. BTW, you may remember late last year I wrote about Cespedes in LTA's thread...well to update things a little he stiffed his agent down here. Admittedly the agent is definitely a shark, but he took Cespedes under his wing down here and made ALL arrangements for him; training, facilitating his ****, showcases, cost of living etc. etc..Don't think Cespedes will ever set foot in this country again.

**Love The Action** · 05-10-12, 05:39 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

No Cuban missile tonight in Oak. BTW, you may remember late last year I wrote about Cespedes in LTA's thread...well to update things a little he stiffed his agent down here. Admittedly the agent is definitely a shark, but he took Cespedes under his wing down here and made ALL arrangements for him; training, facilitating his ****, showcases, cost of living etc. etc..Don't think Cespedes will ever set foot in this country again.

I remember. Why did Cespedes stiff the agent? Did he have a reason?

**Jayvegas420** · 05-10-12, 05:55 PM

gl.

**Redscot** · 05-10-12, 05:59 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

I remember. Why did Cespedes stiff the agent? Did he have a reason?

Don't really know if there were undercurrents that caused this, but my answer would be, because he could. The only reason he stopped off in the Dominican Republic was to fast track his entry to MLB. He got what he wanted and now won't have to look back. It's not like the D.R. can extradite him for this

. Just another day in the life of beisbol down here, it was/is really the wild west, although Sandy Alderson's time down here has implemented some positive changes, albeit some are seen as draconian to the locals.

Wow, just noticed in my original post that V isa was ****, just in case some of you dirty minded mofo's were trying to figure out some seedy angle

**SlickRick1382** · 05-10-12, 06:26 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

Wow, just noticed in my original post that V isa was ****, just in case some of you dirty minded mofo's were trying to figure out some seedy angle

I was beginning to wonder about you bro...

Facilitating his **** huh? lol j/k

**SlickRick1382** · 05-10-12, 07:04 PM

Errors all over the place.

3 Errors in two innings for Yanks & Tampa

3 Error in an inning for the Rangers

**Catchn_Picks** · 05-10-12, 07:07 PM

Maybe some of you guys have the exact stats but it sure doesn't seem like Strasburg is getting much run support recently. Are the Nats just taking him for granted?