LTA's MLB Plays

[Love The Action]

Like the early plays LTA, line has already moved in your favor in all . If you have the time would like your thoughts on the following:


- Phillies with a wrc+ of like 76 against LHP, Richard extreme GB pitcher helps in Citizens bank, Worley certainly capable of shutting down the Pad's....yet 8 1/2?

- Tough not to bite on Felix think this breaks the +130 mark? Over getting juiced but doubt we see it get to 8, would be all over that.

- Paulino - What to do....what to do . Tempted on the under, but if I do will wait till it hits 8, he is combustible don't want that much juice......also tempted on the Royals...hmmmmm.

- Does Detroit snap out of their funk? They have struggled against LHP, and Porcello should be able to handle Oakland's weak lineup.

I agree there is some value on the under in the Pads/Phils game as I have that set at 7.9, but there is considerably more value on the Padres. We might not cash, but I expect this to close around +150 so I will take the +169.

I actually like the under in the Seattle/Yankees game more than the side. I still have some work to do, but that is a strong lean.

Same story for the KC/Chi under. Lean with more work to do.

I'm not so sure about Detroit today because of those lefty struggles and Milone has the unfamiliarity factor going for him. Do you know if Cespesdes is playing?

[Redscot]

I agree there is some value on the under in the Pads/Phils game as I have that set at 7.9, but there is considerably more value on the Padres. We might not cash, but I expect this to close around +150 so I will take the +169.

I actually like the under in the Seattle/Yankees game more than the side. I still have some work to do, but that is a strong lean.

Same story for the KC/Chi under. Lean with more work to do.

I'm not so sure about Detroit today because of those lefty struggles and Milone has the unfamiliarity factor going for him. Do you know if Cespesdes is playing?

I hear you on the Seattle under, stands to reason if you think Felix does well that Kuroda should be able to keep a handle on the Mariners.

Indications are that Cespedes won't be back till Saturday,but it isn't an official decision yet.
Anyway now seeing Schrieber in Oakland with his teeny weeny strike zone.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/11/2012

Play #1

Astros ML (+130) 1x (Locked)

Here's a play where most people may want to back McDonald based on his solid year in terms of ERA. However, I like Norris in this spot. Neither guy is going to be very efficient as you can expect no more 6 and a rare 7 innings out of either guy, however, Norris misses more bats as evidenced by his 11.1% SwStr% to that of McDonald's 8.9%. When you consider that Norris also has the better GB/FB by .20 with an almost identical SIERA, I am going to give the advantage to Norris. I like Houston's offense a lot better than that of the Pirates and they also have the better bullpen in a lot of categories. I have Houston set at +113 giving us 14 cents of "value" in this one and I am rolling with the Astros for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Nationals ML (-102) 1x (Locked)

No reason not to back Gio in this spot, especially with Leake carrying such dreadful advanced numbers. While I recognize that the Reds hit lefties well and I generally look to back the when facing a left, in this case Gio is at the top of this game right now. The Nationals have fared well against Leake and there's no reason they can't put up four or more tomorrow. I have the Nationals set at -113 in this game giving us just over 10 cents of value and I am rolling with the Nationals for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Braves/Cardinals under (8)(-115) 1x (Locked)

This is a risky one considering how great these offenses are playing this year, but the Braves have not fared well against upper echelon lefties like Garcia and I think Minor is in a nice bounce back spot after having to pitch in the thin air of Colorado. It's never a bad idea to back a solid pitcher after a shelacking at Coors for that bounce back factor and I like Minor in this sport. The wind will not be a factor and I expect this one to drop to 7.5 by late morning. I have this game set at 7.06 and it's going to take a final score of 9 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Cubs ML (-107) 1x (Locked)

Wolf is not having a good year and he's always been on my fade list for one reason or the other. Garza is having a great season, despite missing his last start with the flu. The Cubs are actually playing solid baseball right now and if it was not for their bullpen, they could be .500. As it is, I expect Garza to pitch deep into this game based on his prior mastery over the Brewers and the Cubs' need for him to eat up innings. I think the Cubs keep the momentum going for this game and beat up on Wolf who is not having a good statistical season. I have the Cubs set at at -114 giving us seven cents of value and I am rolling with Chicago for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Padres ML (+169) 1x (Locked)

Once the Pads hit +169, I really had no choice but to play them considering that is 23 cents more than what my fair line suggests. I have the Padres set at +146 and I just don't see why the Phillies are so overpriced. While Worley has generally produced better than Richard, the lefty was actually the more respected prospect and has not pitched poorly this season. I expect a quality start out of Richard at the very least. In addition, we know all too well the problems with the Philly bullpen as that bullpen alone has cost us over 7x in profit this season. Offensively, neither team is hitting that well but Philly seems to be pressing more than SD. Philly was expected to have another great season, while SD was not expected to do anything. Consequently, Philly is feeling the pressure while the young Pads are learning every day and getting better. This play is all about the value because there is no way the Phillies should be priced over -160 and yet they are currently around -180. I have the Padres set at +146 giving us 23 cents of value at this number and I am rolling with the San Diego for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Royals/White Sox under (8)(+105) 1x (Locked)

I'm avoiding the heavy juice on this one and risking the push because of the strength of these offenses against right handed hitters. I would not play this under at -120 juice, but at plus odds or even small juice like -105, this is a solid play. As Red knows, Paulino is a darling of the advanced stats who has the "stuff" to be a big producer as a mid-to-top of the rotation guy. Like all young pitchers, his command can give him troubles and he is still learning how to pitch. Nevertheless, he pitched very well in his first start out this season last week as he builds off the previous two years of success when he posted a WAR of 1.8 with the Astros and 2.5 split between Houston and KC. On the other side, Floyd is having a really solid year and missing more bats by a high percentage than he ever did. Throughout his career his SwStr% has been in the 8-9% range, but this year it is over 12%. Whether he sustains that remains to be seen, but this guy has always had the potential to be a big time pitcher and even with his inconsistency he is a 4 WAR type guy. Wind will not be a factor, as it's blowing across the field from first to third. Both offenses hit righties well, but I think these pitchers keep them in check. I have this game set at 7.1 and it's going to take a final of 9 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Redscot]

Play #6

Royals/White Sox under (8)(+105) 1x (Locked)

I'm avoiding the heavy juice on this one and risking the push because of the strength of these offenses against right handed hitters. I would not play this under at -120 juice, but at plus odds or even small juice like -105, this is a solid play. As Red knows, Paulino is a darling of the advanced stats who has the "stuff" to be a big producer as a mid-to-top of the rotation guy. Like all young pitchers, his command can give him troubles and he is still learning how to pitch. Nevertheless, he pitched very well in his first start out this season last week as he builds off the previous two years of success when he posted a WAR of 1.8 with the Astros and 2.5 split between Houston and KC. On the other side, Floyd is having a really solid year and missing more bats by a high percentage than he ever did. Throughout his career his SwStr% has been in the 8-9% range, but this year it is over 12%. Whether he sustains that remains to be seen, but this guy has always had the potential to be a big time pitcher and even with his inconsistency he is a 4 WAR type guy. Wind will not be a factor, as it's blowing across the field from first to third. Both offenses hit righties well, but I think these pitchers keep them in check. I have this game set at 7.1 and it's going to take a final of 9 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

LOL, just got hit HARD....you moving lines now LTA?

[No coincidences]

LTA, what do you think about the Angels/Rangers line? I almost fell out of my chair when I saw CJ Wilson at +141 against his ex-mates with Texas coming back from a long road trip (and a doubleheader yesterday).

[Love The Action]

LOL, just got hit HARD....you moving lines now LTA?

LOL, yeah right. Some of the funniest comments I ever read on this site were from clowns claiming that their picks move lines.

[Love The Action]

LTA, what do you think about the Angels/Rangers line? I almost fell out of my chair when I saw CJ Wilson at +141 against his ex-mates with Texas coming back from a long road trip (and a doubleheader yesterday).

I think the fatigue angle is immaterial in baseball, so I really would not consider that too much. The line is set that high because Darvish is proving to be formidable and has never faced the Angels before, who are not hitting regardless of who they face. Meanwhile, Texas used the Baltimore series as batting practice and certainly seem to be dialed in coming home to where they consistently rake. Add to that, Texas is one of the best hitting teams against lefties and they know Wilson's approach. Texas knows Wilson's tendencies, pitches he likes to through in different situations and he is the type of pitcher they hit well. While my model has the Angels at +131, I will leave that value on the table because I think Texas should win this game. A better pass in my opinion, but good luck if you play it.

[No coincidences]

I think the fatigue angle is immaterial in baseball, so I really would not consider that too much. The line is set that high because Darvish is proving to be formidable and has never faced the Angels before, who are not hitting regardless of who they face. Meanwhile, Texas used the Baltimore series as batting practice and certainly seem to be dialed in coming home to where they consistently rake. Add to that, Texas is one of the best hitting teams against lefties and they know Wilson's approach. Texas knows Wilson's tendencies, pitches he likes to through in different situations and he is the type of pitcher they hit well. While my model has the Angels at +131, I will leave that value on the table because I think Texas should win this game. A better pass in my opinion, but good luck if you play it.

Thanks. You don't think that goes both ways though?

I don't like fading the Rangers in Arlington, but facing CJ Wilson isn't the same as beating up on Matusz and Hunter in my book. I realize Darvish will be at an advantage with the mystery angle, but I still think this Angel offense will be a force to be reckoned with when all is said and done. He better not go 2-0 or 3-1 to a lot of these hitters. I could see runs in this game either way.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/11/2012

Play #1

Astros ML (+130) 1x (Locked)

Here's a play where most people may want to back McDonald based on his solid year in terms of ERA. However, I like Norris in this spot. Neither guy is going to be very efficient as you can expect no more 6 and a rare 7 innings out of either guy, however, Norris misses more bats as evidenced by his 11.1% SwStr% to that of McDonald's 8.9%. When you consider that Norris also has the better GB/FB by .20 with an almost identical SIERA, I am going to give the advantage to Norris. I like Houston's offense a lot better than that of the Pirates and they also have the better bullpen in a lot of categories. I have Houston set at +113 giving us 14 cents of "value" in this one and I am rolling with the Astros for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Nationals ML (-102) 1x (Locked)

No reason not to back Gio in this spot, especially with Leake carrying such dreadful advanced numbers. While I recognize that the Reds hit lefties well and I generally look to back the when facing a left, in this case Gio is at the top of this game right now. The Nationals have fared well against Leake and there's no reason they can't put up four or more tomorrow. I have the Nationals set at -113 in this game giving us just over 10 cents of value and I am rolling with the Nationals for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Braves/Cardinals under (8)(-115) 1x (Locked)

This is a risky one considering how great these offenses are playing this year, but the Braves have not fared well against upper echelon lefties like Garcia and I think Minor is in a nice bounce back spot after having to pitch in the thin air of Colorado. It's never a bad idea to back a solid pitcher after a shelacking at Coors for that bounce back factor and I like Minor in this sport. The wind will not be a factor and I expect this one to drop to 7.5 by late morning. I have this game set at 7.06 and it's going to take a final score of 9 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Cubs ML (-107) 1x (Locked)

Wolf is not having a good year and he's always been on my fade list for one reason or the other. Garza is having a great season, despite missing his last start with the flu. The Cubs are actually playing solid baseball right now and if it was not for their bullpen, they could be .500. As it is, I expect Garza to pitch deep into this game based on his prior mastery over the Brewers and the Cubs' need for him to eat up innings. I think the Cubs keep the momentum going for this game and beat up on Wolf who is not having a good statistical season. I have the Cubs set at at -114 giving us seven cents of value and I am rolling with Chicago for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Padres ML (+169) 1x (Locked)

Once the Pads hit +169, I really had no choice but to play them considering that is 23 cents more than what my fair line suggests. I have the Padres set at +146 and I just don't see why the Phillies are so overpriced. While Worley has generally produced better than Richard, the lefty was actually the more respected prospect and has not pitched poorly this season. I expect a quality start out of Richard at the very least. In addition, we know all too well the problems with the Philly bullpen as that bullpen alone has cost us over 7x in profit this season. Offensively, neither team is hitting that well but Philly seems to be pressing more than SD. Philly was expected to have another great season, while SD was not expected to do anything. Consequently, Philly is feeling the pressure while the young Pads are learning every day and getting better. This play is all about the value because there is no way the Phillies should be priced over -160 and yet they are currently around -180. I have the Padres set at +146 giving us 23 cents of value at this number and I am rolling with the San Diego for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Royals/White Sox under (8)(+105) 1x (Locked)

I'm avoiding the heavy juice on this one and risking the push because of the strength of these offenses against right handed hitters. I would not play this under at -120 juice, but at plus odds or even small juice like -105, this is a solid play. As Red knows, Paulino is a darling of the advanced stats who has the "stuff" to be a big producer as a mid-to-top of the rotation guy. Like all young pitchers, his command can give him troubles and he is still learning how to pitch. Nevertheless, he pitched very well in his first start out this season last week as he builds off the previous two years of success when he posted a WAR of 1.8 with the Astros and 2.5 split between Houston and KC. On the other side, Floyd is having a really solid year and missing more bats by a high percentage than he ever did. Throughout his career his SwStr% has been in the 8-9% range, but this year it is over 12%. Whether he sustains that remains to be seen, but this guy has always had the potential to be a big time pitcher and even with his inconsistency he is a 4 WAR type guy. Wind will not be a factor, as it's blowing across the field from first to third. Both offenses hit righties well, but I think these pitchers keep them in check. I have this game set at 7.1 and it's going to take a final of 9 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Mariners/Yankees under (7.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

I was waiting to see if this would move up to 8 and instead I missed the +105 that was available to me. I am going to jump on this at even odds because it seems like the market is starting to come back towards the under. This is not a complicated play. King Felix remains dominate despite a drop in fastball velocity and there is no reason Kuroda should not pitch well tonight. I would have preferred to get this at 8, but I will jump on it even odds at 7.5 because I don't think it hits the 8 runs it will take to beat us so I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Thanks. You don't think that goes both ways though?

I don't like fading the Rangers in Arlington, but facing CJ Wilson isn't the same as beating up on Matusz and Hunter in my book. I realize Darvish will be at an advantage with the mystery angle, but I still think this Angel offense will be a force to be reckoned with when all is said and done. He better not go 2-0 or 3-1 to a lot of these hitters. I could see runs in this game either way.

Sure, it goes both ways. But that Texas lineup is way more formidable than the Angels at this point in the season. I agree that once Pujols, Hunter and some of the younger guys really heat up, the Angels offense will be a force. However, they are not at the level of Texas yet. I think there's value, but I will pass. Good luck.

[No coincidences]

Sure, it goes both ways. But that Texas lineup is way more formidable than the Angels at this point in the season. I agree that once Pujols, Hunter and some of the younger guys really heat up, the Angels offense will be a force. However, they are not at the level of Texas yet. I think there's value, but I will pass. Good luck.

I'm rolling the dice with the Angels. I don't have an advanced line predictor like you do, but I figured the Angels would be in the +120-125 range. Just can't pass at +141.

Good luck tonight.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/11/2012

Play #1

Astros ML (+130) 1x (Locked)

Here's a play where most people may want to back McDonald based on his solid year in terms of ERA. However, I like Norris in this spot. Neither guy is going to be very efficient as you can expect no more 6 and a rare 7 innings out of either guy, however, Norris misses more bats as evidenced by his 11.1% SwStr% to that of McDonald's 8.9%. When you consider that Norris also has the better GB/FB by .20 with an almost identical SIERA, I am going to give the advantage to Norris. I like Houston's offense a lot better than that of the Pirates and they also have the better bullpen in a lot of categories. I have Houston set at +113 giving us 14 cents of "value" in this one and I am rolling with the Astros for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Nationals ML (-102) 1x (Locked)

No reason not to back Gio in this spot, especially with Leake carrying such dreadful advanced numbers. While I recognize that the Reds hit lefties well and I generally look to back the when facing a left, in this case Gio is at the top of this game right now. The Nationals have fared well against Leake and there's no reason they can't put up four or more tomorrow. I have the Nationals set at -113 in this game giving us just over 10 cents of value and I am rolling with the Nationals for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Braves/Cardinals under (8)(-115) 1x (Locked)

This is a risky one considering how great these offenses are playing this year, but the Braves have not fared well against upper echelon lefties like Garcia and I think Minor is in a nice bounce back spot after having to pitch in the thin air of Colorado. It's never a bad idea to back a solid pitcher after a shelacking at Coors for that bounce back factor and I like Minor in this sport. The wind will not be a factor and I expect this one to drop to 7.5 by late morning. I have this game set at 7.06 and it's going to take a final score of 9 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Cubs ML (-107) 1x (Locked)

Wolf is not having a good year and he's always been on my fade list for one reason or the other. Garza is having a great season, despite missing his last start with the flu. The Cubs are actually playing solid baseball right now and if it was not for their bullpen, they could be .500. As it is, I expect Garza to pitch deep into this game based on his prior mastery over the Brewers and the Cubs' need for him to eat up innings. I think the Cubs keep the momentum going for this game and beat up on Wolf who is not having a good statistical season. I have the Cubs set at at -114 giving us seven cents of value and I am rolling with Chicago for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Padres ML (+169) 1x (Locked)

Once the Pads hit +169, I really had no choice but to play them considering that is 23 cents more than what my fair line suggests. I have the Padres set at +146 and I just don't see why the Phillies are so overpriced. While Worley has generally produced better than Richard, the lefty was actually the more respected prospect and has not pitched poorly this season. I expect a quality start out of Richard at the very least. In addition, we know all too well the problems with the Philly bullpen as that bullpen alone has cost us over 7x in profit this season. Offensively, neither team is hitting that well but Philly seems to be pressing more than SD. Philly was expected to have another great season, while SD was not expected to do anything. Consequently, Philly is feeling the pressure while the young Pads are learning every day and getting better. This play is all about the value because there is no way the Phillies should be priced over -160 and yet they are currently around -180. I have the Padres set at +146 giving us 23 cents of value at this number and I am rolling with the San Diego for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Royals/White Sox under (8)(+105) 1x (Locked)

I'm avoiding the heavy juice on this one and risking the push because of the strength of these offenses against right handed hitters. I would not play this under at -120 juice, but at plus odds or even small juice like -105, this is a solid play. As Red knows, Paulino is a darling of the advanced stats who has the "stuff" to be a big producer as a mid-to-top of the rotation guy. Like all young pitchers, his command can give him troubles and he is still learning how to pitch. Nevertheless, he pitched very well in his first start out this season last week as he builds off the previous two years of success when he posted a WAR of 1.8 with the Astros and 2.5 split between Houston and KC. On the other side, Floyd is having a really solid year and missing more bats by a high percentage than he ever did. Throughout his career his SwStr% has been in the 8-9% range, but this year it is over 12%. Whether he sustains that remains to be seen, but this guy has always had the potential to be a big time pitcher and even with his inconsistency he is a 4 WAR type guy. Wind will not be a factor, as it's blowing across the field from first to third. Both offenses hit righties well, but I think these pitchers keep them in check. I have this game set at 7.1 and it's going to take a final of 9 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Mariners/Yankees under (7.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

I was waiting to see if this would move up to 8 and instead I missed the +105 that was available to me. I am going to jump on this at even odds because it seems like the market is starting to come back towards the under. This is not a complicated play. King Felix remains dominate despite a drop in fastball velocity and there is no reason Kuroda should not pitch well tonight. I would have preferred to get this at 8, but I will jump on it even odds at 7.5 because I don't think it hits the 8 runs it will take to beat us so I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

We are really beating the market right now with some solid numbers and great value as listed below. Let's hope the market continues to move in our direction.

-We bought Houston at +130 and they are down to +122 = 8 cents

-We bought the Nationals at -102 and they are up to -115 = 13 cents

-We bought the Braves/Nationals at -115 and they were at -120 but just moved to -113 at Pinny (-120 most everywhere else)

-We bought the Cubs at -107 and they are up to -115 = 8 cents

-We bought the Padres at its peak at +169 and they are all the way down to +147, just one cent more than the +146 of my model (one of my best plays of the season to date if it closes in this same range) = 22 cents

-We bought the Royals/Sox under at 8(+105) and it's currently down to 7.5 with heavy juice on the under of -110 = (e) 25 cents

-We bought the Mariners/Yanks under at 7.5(+100) and it's still in that range at Pinny, but some shops have -105 or more.

[SlickRick1382]

MLK reached out to me and I had a dream, that we went 7-0 !!!!

I'm ready !!!!

[Redscot]

OK, I'm lazy, and maybe not too bright either so looking for one of LTA's followers or he himself to help me with a quick calculation.

Over 1,000 game sample if you beat the closer by an average of .05 cents and hit at a 53% clip how many more units have you won than if you hit 53% betting the final closing number.

If you are able to make sense of that and give me answer I greatly appreciate it.

[BeardedTaco]

Well first you should define what closing number you are trying to beat. For MLB sides you should be looking to beat the Pinny No-Vig closer: http://sportsbettingsites.org/bettin...ig-calculator/

Meaning if LTA had played HOU +125 and it closed at +123/-131 at Pinny, he would have technically beaten the closing number but he would not have beaten the no-vig closer of 126.5.

[EXhoosier10]

OK, I'm lazy, and maybe not too bright either so looking for one of LTA's followers or he himself to help me with a quick calculation.

Over 1,000 game sample if you beat the closer by an average of .05 cents and hit at a 53% clip how many more units have you won than if you hit 53% betting the final closing number.

If you are able to make sense of that and give me answer I greatly appreciate it.

Lets assume you're betting $1 per game, dogs bet $1, favorites to win $1
1000 games @ 53% winners --- I played 45% favorites and 55% dogs last year, pretty similar this year, so lets use those numbers
530 wins - 238 favorites, 292 dogs.
470 losses - 212 favorites, 258 dogs.

Wins on favorites --- you gain no advantage from better lines = $0.00
Wins on dogs --- you gain 5 cents per win. On the 292 dog wins, that's .05 x 292 = $14.60
Losses on favorites --- you lose 5 cents per loss. On 212 favorite losses, that's .05 x 212 = $10.60
Losses on dogs --- you gain no advantage from better lines = $0.00
SUM --- $25.20

Over 1000 games betting $1 per game, that's roughly $25 saved with a line 5 cents better.

In more realistic terms,
-Over 1000 games betting $10 per game, on average, that's roughly $250 saved with a line 5 cents better than best available
-Over 100 games betting $100 per game, on average, that's roughly $250 saved with a line 5 cents better than best available

-Over 500 games betting $100 per game, if you are 5 cents better every time, that's $1,250 saved.
same scenario, 500 / $100, If beat the line only 50% of the time (I don't keep track, but I think beating it 50% of the time is ridiculously easy assuming you aren't a complete square eating chalk every play), you save $625.

As others have mentioned, 6-12 units of saved profit per 1/2 season of bets is much better than just about any bonus can give you, assuming you practice sound money management.

[metsy]

Wish this was like the stock market where say we bought that Houston at +130 and now that it is +122, we'd be able to "sell" it back for profit. I know the exchanges out there allow something similar to that, but you're not able to sell back at the 122. You'd have to go against Houston (Really going for Pirates at their asking price, which wouldn't be 122). Good picks.

We are really beating the market right now with some solid numbers and great value as listed below. Let's hope the market continues to move in our direction.

-We bought Houston at +130 and they are down to +122 = 8 cents

-We bought the Nationals at -102 and they are up to -115 = 13 cents

-We bought the Braves/Nationals at -115 and they were at -120 but just moved to -113 at Pinny (-120 most everywhere else)

-We bought the Cubs at -107 and they are up to -115 = 8 cents

-We bought the Padres at its peak at +169 and they are all the way down to +147, just one cent more than the +146 of my model (one of my best plays of the season to date if it closes in this same range) = 22 cents

-We bought the Royals/Sox under at 8(+105) and it's currently down to 7.5 with heavy juice on the under of -110 = (e) 25 cents

-We bought the Mariners/Yanks under at 7.5(+100) and it's still in that range at Pinny, but some shops have -105 or more.

[mbs4]

OK, I'm lazy, and maybe not too bright either so looking for one of LTA's followers or he himself to help me with a quick calculation.

Over 1,000 game sample if you beat the closer by an average of .05 cents and hit at a 53% clip how many more units have you won than if you hit 53% betting the final closing number.

If you are able to make sense of that and give me answer I greatly appreciate it.

ExH got it but it depends on your average juice paid.

[Vasco]

LTA, love the huge card today. What's your feel on the Giants/DBacks? I'm surprised you're not backing Bumgarner at -119. Don't trust the Giants offense enough?

[JM92]

Wow, in total, tailing the plays now, I lost almost one full unit! Amazing work LTA

[HCBoone]

Lots of plays today. BOL.

[Redscot]

Lets assume you're betting $1 per game, dogs bet $1, favorites to win $1
1000 games @ 53% winners --- I played 45% favorites and 55% dogs last year, pretty similar this year, so lets use those numbers
530 wins - 238 favorites, 292 dogs.
470 losses - 212 favorites, 258 dogs.

Wins on favorites --- you gain no advantage from better lines = $0.00
Wins on dogs --- you gain 5 cents per win. On the 292 dog wins, that's .05 x 292 = $14.60
Losses on favorites --- you lose 5 cents per loss. On 212 favorite losses, that's .05 x 212 = $10.60
Losses on dogs --- you gain no advantage from better lines = $0.00
SUM --- $25.20

Over 1000 games betting $1 per game, that's roughly $25 saved with a line 5 cents better.

In more realistic terms,
-Over 1000 games betting $10 per game, on average, that's roughly $250 saved with a line 5 cents better than best available
-Over 100 games betting $100 per game, on average, that's roughly $250 saved with a line 5 cents better than best available

-Over 500 games betting $100 per game, if you are 5 cents better every time, that's $1,250 saved.
same scenario, 500 / $100, If beat the line only 50% of the time (I don't keep track, but I think beating it 50% of the time is ridiculously easy assuming you aren't a complete square eating chalk every play), you save $625.

As others have mentioned, 6-12 units of saved profit per 1/2 season of bets is much better than just about any bonus can give you, assuming you practice sound money management.

Thank you very much for the detailed response. I had a general idea, but knew someone would step up and illuminate further.

In the first example you gave, I find it astounding really, that over a MLB season (1,000 bets not out of the ordinary for many) that .05 is worth 25 units!!! Most people alone would be happy to win 25 units over the course of a season. One of the greatest assets of LTA's thread for me is looking at this game as an investment. That .05 difference is a perfect illustration, and I think one that the majority of meatballs betting have no clue just how significant, I know I didn't for a long time.

[dlunc3]

Jason Bartlett was scratched from Friday's lineup against the Phillies due to a stomach virus.

Cameron Maybin was also scratched, so there's evidently something going around the Padres' clubhouse. Andy Parrino will start in his place and bat eighth against right-hander Vance Worley.
Related: Andy Parrino

Source: San Diego Union-Tribune on Twitter

[Spokez]

A little worried about the Yanks game under. Any thoughts?

[TC Woods]

A little worried about the Yanks game under. Any thoughts?

Play #7

Mariners/Yankees under (7.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

I was waiting to see if this would move up to 8 and instead I missed the +105 that was available to me. I am going to jump on this at even odds because it seems like the market is starting to come back towards the under. This is not a complicated play. King Felix remains dominate despite a drop in fastball velocity and there is no reason Kuroda should not pitch well tonight. I would have preferred to get this at 8, but I will jump on it even odds at 7.5 because I don't think it hits the 8 runs it will take to beat us so I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Spokez]

Play #7

Mariners/Yankees under (7.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

I was waiting to see if this would move up to 8 and instead I missed the +105 that was available to me. I am going to jump on this at even odds because it seems like the market is starting to come back towards the under. This is not a complicated play. King Felix remains dominate despite a drop in fastball velocity and there is no reason Kuroda should not pitch well tonight. I would have preferred to get this at 8, but I will jump on it even odds at 7.5 because I don't think it hits the 8 runs it will take to beat us so I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

I can see it now thanks

[Pride]

astros back up to +133

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/11/2012

Play #1

Astros ML (+130) 1x (Locked)

Here's a play where most people may want to back McDonald based on his solid year in terms of ERA. However, I like Norris in this spot. Neither guy is going to be very efficient as you can expect no more 6 and a rare 7 innings out of either guy, however, Norris misses more bats as evidenced by his 11.1% SwStr% to that of McDonald's 8.9%. When you consider that Norris also has the better GB/FB by .20 with an almost identical SIERA, I am going to give the advantage to Norris. I like Houston's offense a lot better than that of the Pirates and they also have the better bullpen in a lot of categories. I have Houston set at +113 giving us 14 cents of "value" in this one and I am rolling with the Astros for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Nationals ML (-102) 1x (Locked)

No reason not to back Gio in this spot, especially with Leake carrying such dreadful advanced numbers. While I recognize that the Reds hit lefties well and I generally look to back the when facing a left, in this case Gio is at the top of this game right now. The Nationals have fared well against Leake and there's no reason they can't put up four or more tomorrow. I have the Nationals set at -113 in this game giving us just over 10 cents of value and I am rolling with the Nationals for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Braves/Cardinals under (8)(-115) 1x (Locked)

This is a risky one considering how great these offenses are playing this year, but the Braves have not fared well against upper echelon lefties like Garcia and I think Minor is in a nice bounce back spot after having to pitch in the thin air of Colorado. It's never a bad idea to back a solid pitcher after a shelacking at Coors for that bounce back factor and I like Minor in this sport. The wind will not be a factor and I expect this one to drop to 7.5 by late morning. I have this game set at 7.06 and it's going to take a final score of 9 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Cubs ML (-107) 1x (Locked)

Wolf is not having a good year and he's always been on my fade list for one reason or the other. Garza is having a great season, despite missing his last start with the flu. The Cubs are actually playing solid baseball right now and if it was not for their bullpen, they could be .500. As it is, I expect Garza to pitch deep into this game based on his prior mastery over the Brewers and the Cubs' need for him to eat up innings. I think the Cubs keep the momentum going for this game and beat up on Wolf who is not having a good statistical season. I have the Cubs set at at -114 giving us seven cents of value and I am rolling with Chicago for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Padres ML (+169) 1x (Locked)

Once the Pads hit +169, I really had no choice but to play them considering that is 23 cents more than what my fair line suggests. I have the Padres set at +146 and I just don't see why the Phillies are so overpriced. While Worley has generally produced better than Richard, the lefty was actually the more respected prospect and has not pitched poorly this season. I expect a quality start out of Richard at the very least. In addition, we know all too well the problems with the Philly bullpen as that bullpen alone has cost us over 7x in profit this season. Offensively, neither team is hitting that well but Philly seems to be pressing more than SD. Philly was expected to have another great season, while SD was not expected to do anything. Consequently, Philly is feeling the pressure while the young Pads are learning every day and getting better. This play is all about the value because there is no way the Phillies should be priced over -160 and yet they are currently around -180. I have the Padres set at +146 giving us 23 cents of value at this number and I am rolling with the San Diego for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Royals/White Sox under (8)(+105) 1x (Locked)

I'm avoiding the heavy juice on this one and risking the push because of the strength of these offenses against right handed hitters. I would not play this under at -120 juice, but at plus odds or even small juice like -105, this is a solid play. As Red knows, Paulino is a darling of the advanced stats who has the "stuff" to be a big producer as a mid-to-top of the rotation guy. Like all young pitchers, his command can give him troubles and he is still learning how to pitch. Nevertheless, he pitched very well in his first start out this season last week as he builds off the previous two years of success when he posted a WAR of 1.8 with the Astros and 2.5 split between Houston and KC. On the other side, Floyd is having a really solid year and missing more bats by a high percentage than he ever did. Throughout his career his SwStr% has been in the 8-9% range, but this year it is over 12%. Whether he sustains that remains to be seen, but this guy has always had the potential to be a big time pitcher and even with his inconsistency he is a 4 WAR type guy. Wind will not be a factor, as it's blowing across the field from first to third. Both offenses hit righties well, but I think these pitchers keep them in check. I have this game set at 7.1 and it's going to take a final of 9 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Mariners/Yankees under (7.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

I was waiting to see if this would move up to 8 and instead I missed the +105 that was available to me. I am going to jump on this at even odds because it seems like the market is starting to come back towards the under. This is not a complicated play. King Felix remains dominate despite a drop in fastball velocity and there is no reason Kuroda should not pitch well tonight. I would have preferred to get this at 8, but I will jump on it even odds at 7.5 because I don't think it hits the 8 runs it will take to beat us so I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Mets ML (+122) 1x (Locked)

I am real surprised to see late Miami money, but I will take advantage and back Santana, the better offense (at least statistically) and the better bullpen. I like Buehrle, but Santana seems to have returned to near top level form after the injury. I have this game set at +113 and I am rolling with the Mets for 1x. Good luck.

[nrok2118]

Tried my own capping for once, and came up with the mets and the padres. Good to see I made the right choices, shame I was wasting my time since Ive been tailing anyway

[TC Woods]

Play #8

Mets ML (+122) 1x (Locked)

I am real surprised to see late Miami money, but I will take advantage and back Santana, the better offense (at least statistically) and the better bullpen. I like Buehrle, but Santana seems to have returned to near top level form after the injury. I have this game set at +113 and I am rolling with the Mets for 1x. Good luck.

I have the same bet... mets already in a 3 run hole

[SlickRick1382]

Getting robbed on that hit by Houston. Inches away from being a HR and he basically triples but ump call his out somehow. He was into 3rd before the tag was even applied ....

[brucethebear]

Stros get out of a big jam in the 6th.
loaded bases, none out.
strike out, infield fly, strike out. No runs score.

[Catchn_Picks]

Great Defensive and pitching performance by Hou. Congrats.

[Catchn_Picks]

Nice job in the ninth Mets.

[brucethebear]

Wow. Bases loaded in the scrubs game.
Kameron Loe in to pitch for the brewers.
David DeJesus to PH for the scrubs.

Pitch 1 - Grand slam.

edit : and then they give them right back