LTA's MLB Plays

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/13/2012

Play #1

Devil Rays/Orioles under (8.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

I have this game set at 7.57 and it's going to take a final score of 9 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Royals ML (+117) 1x (Locked)

I wish I would have been up around 5am when this was set at +121, but we are still getting seven cents of value at +117. The Sox struggle with power lefties like Duffy and Humber has been rather poor since his perfect game. I have this game set at +110 and I am rolling with the Royals for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Angels ML (+122) 1x (Locked)

I have to roll with Weaver in this game and trust the Angels offense to play up to their capabilities. I have the Angels set at +109 giving us thirteen cents of value and I am rolling with the Angels for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Cardinals -1RL (-113) 1x (Locked)

I have to roll with Lynn today because his advanced numbers are really among the best in baseball. He's just doing it all right now with a FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA all in the 2.9 range (a full run better than Hanson) and the ability to get both strikeouts as evidenced by his 26% K% and ground balls with a 1.6 GB/FB. He does have a low BABIP indicating he will regress a bit, but he has the type of power stuff to support a low BABIP. Hanson is still acclimating himself after the injury and this Cardinals lineup is among the best in baseball. Plus, they really need this win to avoid the sweep. I think the Cardinals win this game by two and am rolling with them on the -1RL for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Mets/Marlins under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

Pinny is juicing the over heavily at -134 and my local is giving me -110 at 7.5 instead. I will roll with the value provided by that half point as I have this game set at 7.2. Zambrano has revived his career and the advanced stats show this to be true with a SIERA around 3.7 and a career best GB/FB of 1.6. Niese has similar numbers and the Marlins are in the bottom 1/3 against lefties. The wind is blowing in briskly at 15 mph and the ump is Tichenor who is a bit inconsistent but has some great under seasons. I have this game set at 7.2 and it's going to take a final score of 8 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Jayvegas420]

Youve provided me with 2 winners here & appear to be over .500 this week.
It's hard arguing with illiterate PHD's who want to write books & narcissistic, know it alls who never offer picks of their own.
1/2 the haters in this thread are attention starved losers who troll because they are to scored to strat their own threads for fear that they'll realize "no one wants to have anything to do with them."

GL

I like the Cards today too!

[WVU9494]

Thank you sir for the kind words. If you want to be taken seriously I would understand what you are talking about and use your wording a bit differently. Good luck today

Youve provided me with 2 winners here & appear to be over .500 this week.
It's hard arguing with illiterate PHD's who want to write books & narcissistic, know it alls who never offer picks of their own.
1/2 the haters in this thread are attention starved losers who troll because they are to scored to strat their own threads for fear that they'll realize "no one wants to have anything to do with them."

GL

I like the Cards today too!

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/13/2012

Play #1

Devil Rays/Orioles under (8.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

I have this game set at 7.57 and it's going to take a final score of 9 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Royals ML (+117) 1x (Locked)

I wish I would have been up around 5am when this was set at +121, but we are still getting seven cents of value at +117. The Sox struggle with power lefties like Duffy and Humber has been rather poor since his perfect game. I have this game set at +110 and I am rolling with the Royals for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Angels ML (+122) 1x (Locked)

I have to roll with Weaver in this game and trust the Angels offense to play up to their capabilities. I have the Angels set at +109 giving us thirteen cents of value and I am rolling with the Angels for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Cardinals -1RL (-113) 1x (Locked)

I have to roll with Lynn today because his advanced numbers are really among the best in baseball. He's just doing it all right now with a FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA all in the 2.9 range (a full run better than Hanson) and the ability to get both strikeouts as evidenced by his 26% K% and ground balls with a 1.6 GB/FB. He does have a low BABIP indicating he will regress a bit, but he has the type of power stuff to support a low BABIP. Hanson is still acclimating himself after the injury and this Cardinals lineup is among the best in baseball. Plus, they really need this win to avoid the sweep. I think the Cardinals win this game by two and am rolling with them on the -1RL for 1x. Good luck.


Play #5

Mets/Marlins under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

Pinny is juicing the over heavily at -134 and my local is giving me -110 at 7.5 instead. I will roll with the value provided by that half point as I have this game set at 7.2. Zambrano has revived his career and the advanced stats show this to be true with a SIERA around 3.7 and a career best GB/FB of 1.6. Niese has similar numbers and the Marlins are in the bottom 1/3 against lefties. The wind is blowing in briskly at 15 mph and the ump is Tichenor who is a bit inconsistent but has some great under seasons. I have this game set at 7.2 and it's going to take a final score of 8 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Indians/Red Sox under (10)(-105) 1x (Locked)

Hold onto your hats as two top offenses face off with the wind blowing straight out at 10mph. Based on that, you might think the over is the play. However, I think the total is way too high here. Even though my model has significantly downgraded Masterson this season, he still is one of the best in the league at throwing ground balls, which is what you need against this lineup. Speaking of Boston's lineup, they have completely struggled against Masterson throughout his career. Masterson's huge velocity drop from 92 to 90 is a big problem for me because that is considerable. However, I think he can give us a quality start. Bard is an invaluable asset to Boston after his conversion from the bullpen. As soon as he starts missing a few more bats by increasing his SwStr% to the 11% he is accustomed to, he should really begin to improve. However, I also think he can limit Cleveland to three or four runs. Even though the wind is blowing out, both guys are solid ground ball guys and there has only been a 2.3% higher home run rate when the wind blows out at Fenway as opposed to when it blows in. The ump is Kulpa who is a pretty solid under guy. I have this game set at 9 even and it's going to take a final score of 11 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[WVU9494]

Reread my posts sir. Not once did I attack or slander a single person. I made a simple post and was attacked constantly. My problem with SBR is all the claims tha are made which has the tendency to entice people without money into losing everything they have. It's very dangerous. I would eliminated the person attacks in your verabge if you want to be taken seriously.

I've never made such claims so quit lying. I am still up over $4,000 after a tough week. If you are down money, you have no one to blame but yourself. And if you are unemployed, you should not even be wagering. Go get a job.

Finally, we agreed not post attacks at each other and yet here you are filling up my thread with a page of bullshit. You really are one of the biggest losers I have ever met online or in the real world. How can you be down money following me when I am up over $4,000!?! You are clearly mismanaging your money. If i am so bad at this, then stop following and go away. No one cares about your girlish bitching.

[Catchn_Picks]

Hey LTA and all: Happy Mother's Day to your wife and all of the important woman out there that make our lives so much more fulfilled.

Thank you for the tireless efforts on this family holiday.

I don't eat pork or I would have some ham in honor of Miss Piggy. Maybe you can tho.



Great job on the multi-unit score in basketball last night. Never a sweat...my favorite kind of selection.

The best to all today and let's get em.

Catchn

[Love The Action]

I like the Cards today too!

I got a bad price....if I had waited, I could have gotten closer to -105 or -106 on the -1RL or even paid the -140ish on the moneyline. But, we've been losing a lot of games this week which were great long term plays that destroyed the closing number, so maybe the gambling gods will pay us back with cashing ticket with the Cards.

[Catchn_Picks]

Reread my posts sir. Not once did I attack or slander a single person. I made a simple post and was attacked constantly. My problem with SBR is all the claims tha are made which has the tendency to entice people without money into losing everything they have. It's very dangerous. I would eliminated the person attacks in your verabge if you want to be taken seriously.

Hey, WVU:

I do not doubt your sincerity or the passion of your subject. Sports betting is a serious game that can be fun but only with a zealous discipline for BR management. Otherwise your mind can begin to play games with you and bad things can result. I got frisky one night a wrote some extensive posts about this very subject that you may (or may not) be interested in reading. One of them I found was post #6623. Check it out if you have the time.

I wish you the best.

[Love The Action]

Reread my posts sir. Not once did I attack or slander a single person. I made a simple post and was attacked constantly. My problem with SBR is all the claims tha are made which has the tendency to entice people without money into losing everything they have. It's very dangerous. I would eliminated the person attacks in your verabge if you want to be taken seriously.

You implied that it was my fault that you lost your bankroll, when in fact it is no one's fault but your own. Plus, you have consistently been a negative influence that trolls around looking for internet fights. You bring nothing of value to anyone on SBR.

If you want to complain about other posters, do it in their thread. I don't make claims that are not backed up by my records. Furthermore, I don't care about other posters or your "problems with SBR." This thread is for discussing baseball plays. If you want to talk about your problems with SBR, do it elsewhere. I don't want you posting in my thread because you are consistently negative and try to blame others for your poor money management. If you want to solve the problems of SBR, you might want to look in the mirror. If you can't withstand the ups and downs of a 7 month season, you have no chance. Finally, the next time you try to sound smart, you might want to run a spell check if you want to be taken seriously.

[Love The Action]

Hey, WVU:

I do not doubt your sincerity or the passion of your subject. Sports betting is a serious game that can be fun but only with a zealous discipline for BR management. Otherwise your mind can begin to play games with you and bad things can result. I got frisky one night a wrote some extensive posts about this very subject that you may (or may not) be interested in reading. One of them I found was post #6623. Check it out if you have the time.

I wish you the best.

You've got to be kidding me. If you don't doubt his sincerity, then I have some oceanfront property in Kansas to sell you. Look at his post history. He starts fights in every thread he goes into. He's just looking to troll and start an argument. Believe me, I've tried numerous times to engage him but you cannot be reasonable with the unreasonable or rational with the irrational. I've never asked people to tail or made any claims that were not 100% supported by my various records. If he is so worried about others posting false claims, he should go troll them in their threads. This is not the place to complain about other posters on SBR.

[Love The Action]

Very preliminary but so far leaning Tampa, Mets and Zona on sides....liking the under in K.C./Sox and maybe the Nat's under too. Toying with a Det/Philly parlay perhaps. Looking forward to seeing your thoughts on the days card LTA.

Hope you jumped on that KC/Sox under at 8.5...big time steam down to 8 with heavy juice.

[Derty D]

Keep up the hard, disciplined work LTA! I like your style on looking for value. Best of luck today....

[Redscot]

Hope you jumped on that KC/Sox under at 8.5...big time steam down to 8 with heavy juice.

Looking forward to a big Sunday, bol bud. No NBA today?

Zambrano at -145 has me

[Love The Action]

Looking forward to a big Sunday, bol bud. No NBA today?

Zambrano at -145 has me

Thanks and same to you. Probably no NBA for today. I want to wait and see what happens in this Heat game and then come back with a possible big play in game 2 if everything goes as planned. I like the under in the Clippers game, but there is no value under 178.

I wanted to play Niese and the Mets, but felt the under was the better play. I think Zambrano is overpriced, but he has looked good and I hope that price is an indication of a well pitched game. GL

[Love The Action]

I also like the Cubs, Houston and Seattle, but I just don't think I can pull the trigger on any of them for a number of reasons.

[Redscot]

Thanks and same to you. Probably no NBA for today. I want to wait and see what happens in this Heat game and then come back with a possible big play in game 2 if everything goes as planned. I like the under in the Clippers game, but there is no value under 178.

I wanted to play Niese and the Mets, but felt the under was the better play. I think Zambrano is overpriced, but he has looked good and I hope that price is an indication of a well pitched game. GL

I hear you, I like the under play. Apparently there is a bit of a flu bug going around the Mets clubhouse (per rotoworld), Ike Davis is a late scratch. Any more leans on the 1 and 2 o'clock games, or can I go take my nap now .

[Redscot]

I also like the Cubs, Houston and Seattle, but I just don't think I can pull the trigger on any of them for a number of reasons.

Cubs so hard to back right now with their pen, also think Estrada is decent. Burnett is so unpredictable. I looked hard at Seattle getting +190, no way I would lay -200 on the Yanks, that is just crazy with Petite pitching for the first time in ages.

[Love The Action]

Whoa...why did Houston just go from +110 to +122? That is a huge jump. Is someone out of the lineup? That's some great value at that price. Although, Burnett is pitching well right now absent one bad start.

[aznbluff]

Altuve out of the lineup but thats only maybe a 3-5 cent factor

[Love The Action]

Altuve out of the lineup but thats only maybe a 3-5 cent factor

That's what I'm saying....it's very hard not to pull the trigger at the +128 I can currently get. Burnett's advanced numbers are so good right now, although he's only had 4 starts or so. The weather delays is giving me more time to decide, but I have to leave for MDay brunch in 10 minutes. Decisions, decisions....

[CTOWNsCAPPIN]

Let's pull the trigger LTA

[Catchn_Picks]

You've got to be kidding me. If you don't doubt his sincerity, then I have some oceanfront property in Kansas to sell you. Look at his post history. He starts fights in every thread he goes into. He's just looking to troll and start an argument. Believe me, I've tried numerous times to engage him but you cannot be reasonable with the unreasonable or rational with the irrational. I've never asked people to tail or made any claims that were not 100% supported by my various records. If he is so worried about others posting false claims, he should go troll them in their threads. This is not the place to complain about other posters on SBR.

Just trying to be nice on this holiday sir. In case he was attempting to be sincere (even in his own mind), I wanted him to know that we do discuss BR management and the risk of loss here as well as the games and directed him to a previous post I wrote.

Of course we are each responsible for any play that we make or our wins and losses. That is the key to personal responsibility in this game.

[Redscot]

Well, Duffy left his start in the first, so the bet stands and now we get Mendoza in there . Looks like we are gonna have to shelve Masterson until he puts together a couple of good starts, not sure what is going on with him. I have never been a big fan, but he is way better than he has shown this year. Niese and Zambrano dealing as predicted.

[Les_Nuts]

Bell and Francisco are a good comedy double act

[brucethebear]

Gotta let it rip sometimes. On a side note, I ended yesterday up 1/2 a unit but I don't think I set a good precedent. As you know I set myself up recently at 5dimes and there live betting is dangerous! I was feeling no pain and every time the Denver/Laker game went on a run in the 1st half I would throw a little more on the under. Even threw an extra full unit on it at when it hit 200. Worked out last night, but I am gonna have to be more disciplined than that.

Been there mate. (live betting and rums-ville).
there was a tigers game last year that ended 18-2, including an innings of nine or so runs.
on bet365, I just kept playing the new run lines each run scored.
my last bet was Detroit -14.5.

It so easily can go the other way too.....

[Catchn_Picks]

Tough day so far, let's hope the Halos can cut down the loss tonight.

For those of you who have never seen this baseball weather tool (like me), it can be very valuable. Check it out. Amazing and free.

http://www.baseball-weather.com/

GL

[ronnieseah]

I would rather he pick 85% winner, even if it is -ev you still win $$$. Dont you?

Most people dont go from up 7-8k to broke twice within 5 days though. He ends up however many units at the end of the year because he gets good value on his plays, not because he picks 85% winners.

[ronnieseah]

I have seen more idiot with phd than without. Maybe the phd thing make their head bigger.
Phd is way overrated.

Thank you sir for the very kind words....
1) I might be the only idiot with a phd in the known universe.

[mstrofpigs]

Play #6

Indians/Red Sox under (10)(-105) 1x (Locked)

Hold onto your hats as two top offenses face off with the wind blowing straight out at 10mph. Based on that, you might think the over is the play. However, I think the total is way too high here. Even though my model has significantly downgraded Masterson this season, he still is one of the best in the league at throwing ground balls, which is what you need against this lineup. Speaking of Boston's lineup, they have completely struggled against Masterson throughout his career. Masterson's huge velocity drop from 92 to 90 is a big problem for me because that is considerable. However, I think he can give us a quality start. Bard is an invaluable asset to Boston after his conversion from the bullpen. As soon as he starts missing a few more bats by increasing his SwStr% to the 11% he is accustomed to, he should really begin to improve. However, I also think he can limit Cleveland to three or four runs. Even though the wind is blowing out, both guys are solid ground ball guys and there has only been a 2.3% higher home run rate when the wind blows out at Fenway as opposed to when it blows in. The ump is Kulpa who is a pretty solid under guy. I have this game set at 9 even and it's going to take a final score of 11 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Fortunately you got great "value" on all of your picks so this turns out to be a profitable day long-term. The actual results from the games are irrelevant. Thanks LTA!

[WVU9494]

I have also sir. Thanks for the kind words

I have seen more idiot with phd than without. Maybe the phd thing make their head bigger.
Phd is way overrated.

[Love The Action]

Fortunately you got great "value" on all of your picks so this turns out to be a profitable day long-term. The actual results from the games are irrelevant. Thanks LTA!

Piggy...please just change that avatar. It's disgusting. Say what you want, but we both know I'll win in the end. I always do....

[Love The Action]

For those of you who have never seen this baseball weather tool (like me), it can be very valuable. Check it out. Amazing and free.

http://www.baseball-weather.com/

GL

Nice

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/13/2012 Recap

1 - 5 = -4.26x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

83 - 75 - 11 = +3.40x

A very tough day. The loss that really hurt was that Mets/Marlins game. 2-2 in the 9th inning and then the 9th inning they combine for 8 runs. These slides are why you need to properly manage your money. It's all about discipline to withstand the ups and downs of a 7 month season. Onto tomorrow and back to the grind. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/14/2012

Play #1

Cubs/Cardinals under (7)(-105) 1x (Locked)

Here's a play where a 1st five inning add on may be appropriate. Both pitchers are having a great year, but the Cubs bullpen is always an issue. I have this game set at 5.79, so there is enough value here to make this 1.5x or more play and I may add more later. Good luck.

Play #2

Diamondbacks/Dodgers under (6)(-105) 2x (Locked)

Both starters in a bounce back spot and solid value to boot at a nice price. Kemp tweaked his hamstring and may not be 100%. I have this game set at 4.7 and I am rolling with the under for 2x. Good luck.

[LoneStar]

LTA I have a strong lean on the under 7 SD/WAS. Can I get your thoughts on it?