LTA's MLB Plays

**allan_urban** · 05-15-12, 04:06 AM

Tough run as of late, but its all about the long run, so keep up the good work.

**Catchn_Picks** · 05-15-12, 06:11 AM

Originally posted by Pick'nParlays

lime light. nblove ltA

Secret code?

**Love The Action** · 05-15-12, 06:36 AM

Originally posted by Vinnie Paz

Hey man been following this thread plus your nba for some time now. Got a quick question in regards to your mlb picks...I notice that you play many unders, but is there any specific reason why overs are so rarely played? Pretty sure youve only played maybe 3/4 on the year. Just kinda curious to understand any reasoning as to why. Thanks in advance and appreciate everything.

I will play more overs as the year progresses, but I generally prefer to play unders with value in baseball. My model emphasizes pitching because that is the most important factor in baseball. Early in the season, pitchers are generally ahead of hitters. Right about this part of the season is when the hitting will heat up. You will see me playing more overs as we get into summer, but I will always play more unders than overs in baseball. We have an over today though, so let's see how it goes. It's already up 1/2 run so that's good. GL

**Redscot** · 05-15-12, 06:53 AM

Looking forward to a big day LTA

. The guys over at Fangraphs did some new research on park factors, not sure if you saw it.

Guts! Tool | FanGraphs Baseball

http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=pf&teamid=0&season=2011

Interactive Guts data table with wOBA constants, FIP constants, and park factors used in our calculations.

Off to the farm, have a great day.

**pacocn** · 05-15-12, 07:15 AM

Red, i took a quick glance at the fangraph park factors,
am i right to assume it is already in order best park for hitting
to the worst park. There are so many categories, but it makes sense
that Petco and ATT are the worst parks for hitters.

**pacocn** · 05-15-12, 07:16 AM

Lta bol luck today

**Redscot** · 05-15-12, 07:19 AM

Originally posted by pacocn

Red, i took a quick glance at the fangraph park factors,
am i right to assume it is already in order best park for hitting
to the worst park. There are so many categories, but it makes sense
that Petco and ATT are the worst parks for hitters.

Pacocn I think it is actually alphabetical first AL then NL. But you can click on any category and sort. Also, at the top you can switch it over to handedness break down, for park factors as they apply to lefties and righties.

**pacocn** · 05-15-12, 07:43 AM

Red, Thanks for the great info. purely coincidental
that ATT and Petco were at the bottom

**pacocn** · 05-15-12, 07:49 AM

Red, upon further inspection it appears that if you
click on "basic" far left column it will give you an accurate
breakdown of worst park to best park for hitting. Thanks.

**Bad Ass Mike** · 05-15-12, 08:08 AM

Hi, a rookie question (just started viewing this):

When you do not type what odds is - what is it? :-)

Maybe +100? Or -110 (starting odds)?

Two of todays four is that way..

**Love The Action** · 05-15-12, 08:09 AM

Originally posted by Redscot

Looking forward to a big day LTA

. The guys over at Fangraphs did some new research on park factors, not sure if you saw it.

Guts! Tool | FanGraphs Baseball

http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=pf&teamid=0&season=2011

Interactive Guts data table with wOBA constants, FIP constants, and park factors used in our calculations.

Off to the farm, have a great day.

I have, thanks. What I am really looking for is an update of the below study of wind patterns. That would be awesome.

When the Wind Blows

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/when-the-wind-blows/

How do wind direction and speed affect fly balls in 28 major league ballparks?

**Love The Action** · 05-15-12, 08:11 AM

Originally posted by Bad Ass Mike

Hi, a rookie question (just started viewing this):

When you do not type what odds is - what is it? :-)

Maybe +100? Or -110 (starting odds)?

Two of todays four is that way..

All odds -110 unless otherwise noted. GL

**Love The Action** · 05-15-12, 08:12 AM

Originally posted by pacocn

Lta bol luck today

Same to you buddy

**pacocn** · 05-15-12, 08:18 AM

Originally posted by Bad Ass Mike

Hi, a rookie question (just started viewing this):

When you do not type what odds is - what is it? :-)

Maybe +100? Or -110 (starting odds)?

Two of todays four is that way..

Mike welcome aboard, I hope you have a good
experience on SBR, I see today is your 1st day.
Have fun and make some $.

**LoneStar** · 05-15-12, 08:52 AM

LTA I'm rolling with them Oakland boys again, best underdog bet in baseball this year! I hit with em yesterday and looking to do the same today. The A's have the Halos Santana's & CO. numbers, despite he's 11-2 with 1.54 ERA in his first 16 starts against the A's, he's struggled against them of late, going 2-2 with a 4.21 ERA in his six most recent outings. I like the fact he was outdueled by A's scheduled starter Colon (3-3, 3.96) during a 6-0 loss on April 18.

I believe the A's are gonna start printing FREE MONEY in the month of May

OAK +143

**Love The Action** · 05-15-12, 12:29 PM

Like the Tigers this afternoon, but I missed all the value at + 112 or better so I will pass. The under also looks good in that one, but I'm not sure peavy can continue to pitch so well against them considering this will be the third time he will face them since 4/13.

**ebbearsfb1** · 05-15-12, 07:10 PM

Thanks for coming cueto.. piece of shyt

**Catchn_Picks** · 05-15-12, 09:44 PM

Thank you Brandon Snyder.

**G-manFan** · 05-15-12, 09:44 PM

Wow way to win that Texas game

**bmur714** · 05-15-12, 09:48 PM

We finally get a break in the 9th

**brucethebear** · 05-15-12, 10:08 PM

Originally posted by bmur714

We finally get a break in the 9th

Finally a junk time run goes for us.

**SlickRick1382** · 05-15-12, 10:29 PM

We get one but lose two Under just barely ....

Can't wait for you to go on a run LTA. Feel that it's coming and daddy wants a new pair of shoes !!!! =)

**Love The Action** · 05-15-12, 11:55 PM

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/15/2012 Recap

2 - 2 = 0x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

86 - 79 - 11 = +3.30x

Both unders go over by 1 run to destroy what could have been a great night. Back to the grind....

**Love The Action** · 05-15-12, 11:58 PM

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/16/2012

Play #1

Yankees ML (-122) 1x (Locked)

Kuroda versus Drabek in what is a very close pitching matchup. I am rolling with the better the offense at a decent price. I have the Yankees set at -130 and I am rolling with NY for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Pirates/Nationals under (6.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

Neither team is great against lefties and these are two lefties who have come over from the AL and are pitching well this first rotation through the league. I have this game set at 5.6 and it's going to take a final score of 7 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

**pacocn** · 05-16-12, 12:03 AM

Lta, do you have an ump for the Pirates/Nats Under,
i like it just waiting on ump assignments to go official.

**pacocn** · 05-16-12, 12:04 AM

Lta, bol on your plays tomorrow

**allan_urban** · 05-16-12, 12:20 AM

Lets hope the break-even day signals the start of a profitable run... go profits :-)

**SlickRick1382** · 05-16-12, 01:17 AM

LTA,

What Ubaldo Jimenez do you think we get tonight? Seattle / Cleveland total is steaming over. Was considering possibly getting in on the under if I was confident that UJ could put up a reasonable performance.

**Redscot** · 05-16-12, 07:03 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

I have, thanks. What I am really looking for is an update of the below study of wind patterns. That would be awesome.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...he-wind-blows/

Interesting read. Surprised no one has done more work in that area in more than 5 years. May have to make a suggestion on Fan Graphs. Those 2 unders were rough, Cueto and Gee expected the other pitchers to take care of it all by themselves, they were good calls. I feel a run coming too SlickRick.

As always LTA, if you get a moment your thoughts on the following games would be appreciated. Taking a quick look at the card the Cards and Braves stand out. Redsox over and the Wsox under as well. GL today

**Love The Action** · 05-16-12, 07:03 AM

Originally posted by SlickRick1382

LTA,

What Ubaldo Jimenez do you think we get tonight? Seattle / Cleveland total is steaming over. Was considering possibly getting in on the under if I was confident that UJ could put up a reasonable performance.

Tough to trust him right now. His SwStr% has dropped three percentage points from two years ago which is huge and his K% has gone from 22% to 12%. He's not missing any bats and when a strikeout oriented guy is pitching to contact, that's generally not a recipe for success. His fastball is also down about 1.5 mph. I think his mechanics are off right now so just keep that in mind. Based on this year's numbers, there is no value on the under unless you can get 8. I do lean to Seattle though. GL

**Love The Action** · 05-16-12, 07:15 AM

Originally posted by Redscot

Interesting read. Surprised no one has done more work in that area in more than 5 years. May have to make a suggestion on Fan Graphs. Those 2 unders were rough, Cueto and Gee expected the other pitchers to take care of it all by themselves, they were good calls. I feel a run coming too SlickRick.

As always LTA, if you get a moment your thoughts on the following games would be appreciated. Taking a quick look at the card the Cards and Braves stand out. Redsox over and the Wsox under as well. GL today

The red sox over looks really interesting and is a very strong lean for me. May lock that one in soon. I have under leans in the braves and giants games, but i think there is a about 5 cents of value on the Braves up to -120. It's tough for me to go against MBaum, but the cardinals have the offense to do it. I have more work to do on your sox under lean with floyd and Williams, but the under intrigues me. Good luck buddy.

**Zacharrr** · 05-16-12, 07:46 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/15/2012 Recap

2 - 2 = 0x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

86 - 79 - 11 = +3.30x

Both unders go over by 1 run to destroy what could have been a great night. Back to the grind....

LTA not to be a dick or hater, but with vig, yesterday you didnt go 0units rite ? should be negative number...

**Love The Action** · 05-16-12, 08:00 AM

Originally posted by Zacharrr

LTA not to be a dick or hater, but with vig, yesterday you didnt go 0units rite ? should be negative number...

No, you are wrong. Your math is incorrect. See post 7034. Also note that my stake on TB was 1.25x. I lost 1.1x and 1.15x for a total of -2.25x. I won 1.25x and 1x for a total of +2.25x. Consequently, yesterday was a wash.

**taxe91** · 05-16-12, 08:26 AM

LTA (or anyone else that may know the answer) i often see you mention how you beat the 'closer' with some of your plays. is this something you look to do with on all of your plays? is there a value related benefit in doing this?

**EXhoosier10** · 05-16-12, 08:30 AM

Originally posted by taxe91

LTA (or anyone else that may know the answer) i often see you mention how you beat the 'closer' with some of your plays. is this something you look to do with on all of your plays? is there a value related benefit in doing this?

Here's a post I wrote a few days ago that explains the benefits of beating the closing number:
http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-b...l#post14720732 - post #6876