"The Hedge Chase" Totals System

BCC585 · 06-13-11, 08:22 AM

is it an (A) through (D) chase system?

dlunc3 · 06-13-11, 08:23 AM

It is a three game (A through C) chase

apwmel · 06-13-11, 08:28 AM

Sounds complicated.

BCC585 · 06-13-11, 08:29 AM

I'll tail lightly to see how it does dunc3

knugen · 06-13-11, 08:51 AM

Me too, really small , to win about 2 dollar labby line

Duby · 06-13-11, 09:00 AM

Sounds interesting. Will keep an eye!

GL

gofightingirish · 06-13-11, 09:41 AM

thanks for all the work

G's pks · 06-13-11, 09:47 AM

Pitt *OVER* - 19:05 EST (C bet)< your play from a "friend"

So if Pittsburgh does not go over today the system will already have 2 losses in the short time you have been following?

dlunc3 · 06-13-11, 10:07 AM

Originally posted by G's pks

Pitt *OVER* - 19:05 EST (C bet)< your play from a "friend"

So if Pittsburgh does not go over today the system will already have 2 losses in the short time you have been following?

That is correct G... Ill be 100% honest with you guys... I am normally extremely skeptical when i see results like this system has been said to have had. Based on the record I was given, we should expect 41 wins for every 1 loss (1395-34). Normally, when something seems to good to be true, it normally is.. actually it almost always is. Like i said, I met this guy on the forum and have kept in touch over the past few years. He seems very honest and seems like a great guy.. but again, those results seem a little too great. As G said, if Pitt doesnt go over today, that will be 2 losses in the short amount of time that I have been following. Is that just a fluke and just a bad run? I have no clue... but the part I love is that 1 loss only cost you 8 units (bc it is normally -110) . So even a record of 25-2 would still have the system up 9 units. So the way i look at it, even if the system isnt all he cranks it up to be (41 wins per 1 loss)...even it it wins 41 per every 4 losses, it will still be up 9 units since a loss really doesnt kill you.

Either way, I am still betting it pretty small until I see some more results... but in my mind, it is definately worth keeping an eye on.

dlunc3 · 06-13-11, 10:10 AM

Originally posted by BCC585

I'll tail lightly to see how it does dunc3

same here.. will be tailing lightly until we see some more results...but any 3 game chase system that uses all -110 lines is definately worth taking a look at in my mind

GGPLAYER · 06-13-11, 10:20 AM

My only problem is Total lines move during the day. So posting Pitt/NYM as a play means nothing unless you have a number next to it. Does your friend provide that number? I imagine there has to be a lot of pushes too...how are those handled? Am I wrong in assuming that we're talking about the total for both teams? I just realized you put just Pitt, etc. Are talking about the team total? Would you like me to ask anymore questions?

Dre2109 · 06-13-11, 10:26 AM

Definitely keep an eye on that.

Just one question: Are you chasing the Game Total or the Team Total?

GGPLAYER · 06-13-11, 10:29 AM

Question of the hour...I just asked that too.

dlunc3 · 06-13-11, 10:40 AM

Originally posted by GGPLAYER

My only problem is Total lines move during the day. So posting Pitt/NYM as a play means nothing unless you have a number next to it. Does your friend provide that number? I imagine there has to be a lot of pushes too...how are those handled? Am I wrong in assuming that we're talking about the total for both teams? I just realized you put just Pitt, etc. Are talking about the team total? Would you like me to ask anymore questions?

Sorry for the confusion... Great question.. we are chasing the GAME TOTAL, not the team total. Can see where that could be confusing...

The system goes by the final closing number on covers.com, as this is what all the backtesting was done by. I actually just got screwed on this yesterday. The oak As under was an A bet... I got it at 8.5 (was the highest # I could find it at), but it ended up closing at 9 on covers. So the system got a push, yet I had to take the loss since the total score in the game was 9.

When pushes happen, we just play the next game in place of the push. For example, if tonights C bet pushes, tomorrow would then become the C bet.

Basically, in order for the system to break even, we will need to win 8 games for every 1 loss... if the backtesting numbers hold true and are even 1/4 % accurate, then we should still be looking at some decent winnings.

Wallco99 · 06-13-11, 10:45 AM

Originally posted by GGPLAYER

Question of the hour...I just asked that too.

That seems to be your M.O., simultaneous posts. You have a real knack for that! Lol. Good stuff.

G's pks · 06-13-11, 10:47 AM

This is very confusing...the lines will move...maybe madcapper34 could come in and answer questions for you!

Wallco99 · 06-13-11, 10:48 AM

Originally posted by G's pks

This is very confusing...the lines will move...maybe madcapper34 could come in and answer questions for you!

You just can't seem to scratch that itch can you. He seems to have become a spreading rash over there.

G's pks · 06-13-11, 10:51 AM

when will the totals be posted? How will you get them up if they are based on the closing line? You need to post the numbers before the games start!

Could we get madcapper34 in here to help? How long before he stops in and tells your system is great? I mean your friends system...thanks for taking the time to answer everyones questions so we all understand...

Could you edit the rules and include the questions/answers asked by GGplayer? Could madcapper34 also help out here?

G's pks · 06-13-11, 10:52 AM

Originally posted by Wallco99

You just can't seem to scratch that itch can you. He seems to have become a spreading rash over there.

misread what you said...my mistake...but this guy caused several people to stop posting in my thread...attacking everyone and playing games along with a friend named madcapper34...

Wallco99 · 06-13-11, 10:56 AM

I was actually agreeing with you that he seemed to be a pain in the ass. I am referring to Madcapper34.

G's pks · 06-13-11, 10:58 AM

Originally posted by dlunc3

That is correct G... Ill be 100% honest with you guys... I am normally extremely skeptical when i see results like this system has been said to have had. Based on the record I was given, we should expect 41 wins for every 1 loss (1395-34). Normally, when something seems to good to be true, it normally is.. actually it almost always is. Like i said, I met this guy on the forum and have kept in touch over the past few years. He seems very honest and seems like a great guy.. but again, those results seem a little too great. As G said, if Pitt doesnt go over today, that will be 2 losses in the short amount of time that I have been following. Is that just a fluke and just a bad run? I have no clue... but the part I love is that 1 loss only cost you 8 units (bc it is normally -110) . So even a record of 25-2 would still have the system up 9 units. So the way i look at it, even if the system isnt all he cranks it up to be (41 wins per 1 loss)...even it it wins 41 per every 4 losses, it will still be up 9 units since a loss really doesnt kill you.

Either way, I am still betting it pretty small until I see some more results... but in my mind, it is definately worth keeping an eye on.

So...let me get this straight...in my thread you have had over 40 posts deleted...diverted...moved...you tired to ruin my thread...but now in this thread...you are going to act responsible...it is ok if I act like you do in my thread?

Do you have any idea how many pm's and messages I got about you in my thread? Some left just because you constantly caused problems...so it is fine that I return the favor?

G's pks · 06-13-11, 11:01 AM

Originally posted by Wallco99

I was actually agreeing with you that he seemed to be a pain in the ass, but if you are going to ack like an A-hole, then go screw yourself.

if that is the case I apologize...and I am removing what I said...just all the hell this guy gave me since April...sorry... thought you were referring to me...

dlunc3 · 06-13-11, 11:02 AM

Guys can we just all try to make money and be happy? All here for the same reasons.. this is a tough business we are in... We all obviously seem to have done this for a long time.. so all opinions are valuable and welcome.. Lets just put the childish talk and nonsense behind us and try to beat the books... None of us seem to be all that far ahead of the game quite yet this summer, so lets try to figure this thing out and come out on top. Any profit is good profit no matter what system it comes from... it all looks the same in my bank account

Lets have a good week boys and hopefully turn some nice profit before the all star break right around the corner

chilidog · 06-13-11, 11:02 AM

Originally posted by dlunc3

All plays are based on the closing lines at Covers.com

How can this be possible? Shouldn't the plays be based on what the line was when the bet was made? Unless the creator isn't betting the plays at all, and just operating on theory. You can't know what the closing line is going to be, so how can you use its' results to say if your play would or would not have won?

Wallco99 · 06-13-11, 11:05 AM

Originally posted by G's pks

if that is the case I apologize...and I am removing what I said...just all the hell this guy gave me since April...sorry... thought you were referring to me...

As do I. I tried to mend the fence in the other thread last week, don't know if you read it or not. No reason for us to act like two children when we have the same end results in mind, just different ways of acheiving them.

G's pks · 06-13-11, 11:07 AM

Originally posted by Wallco99

As do I. I tried to mend the fence in the other thread last week, don't know if you read it or not. No reason for us to act like two children when we have the same end results in mind, just different ways of acheiving them.

Sorry...sent you a private message...but anyone who has stopped in my thread knows for over 3 months this guy along with "madcapper34" have done nothing but cause problems...

dlunc3 · 06-13-11, 11:11 AM

Originally posted by G's pks

So...let me get this straight...in my thread you have had ver 40 posts deleted...diverted...moved...you tired to ruim my thread...but now in this thread...you are going to act responsible...it is ok if I act like you do in my thread?

Do you have any idea how many pm's and messages I got about you in my thread? Some left just because you constantly caused problems...so it is fine that I return the favor?

Please do not confuse me with MadCapper... we had gotten in a heated agrument over a month and a half ago, i agree. Since then my posts have been to either lighten the mood and create a nice atmosphere or try to help out in your thread. I have apologized for my posts from back in April. Hopefully you can move past it like I have. We are both here to win money. I have no personal benefit to post this system here.. I gain absolutely 0 from it... I thought it would be of some help to other people on here. If you or others would not like me to run this thread, that is fine. Im here to make money like the rest of you.. my bank roll could use any help it can get

G's pks · 06-13-11, 11:15 AM

Originally posted by dlunc3

Guys can we just all try to make money and be happy? All here for the same reasons.. this is a tough business we are in... We all obviously seem to have done this for a long time.. so all opinions are valuable and welcome.. Lets just put the childish talk and nonsense behind us and try to beat the books... None of us seem to be all that far ahead of the game quite yet this summer, so lets try to figure this thing out and come out on top. Any profit is good profit no matter what system it comes from... it all looks the same in my bank account

Lets have a good week boys and hopefully turn some nice profit before the all star break right around the corner

Are you turning over a new leaf than?

Since April you have done nothing but be negative in my thread...even though the losses have now been made up...

dlunc3 · 06-13-11, 11:17 AM

Originally posted by chilidog

How can this be possible? Shouldn't the plays be based on what the line was when the bet was made? Unless the creator isn't betting the plays at all, and just operating on theory. You can't know what the closing line is going to be, so how can you use its' results to say if your play would or would not have won?

When it comes to totals chase systems, I would assume that the only possible way to backtest them would be to either go by the opening lines, or the closing lines, correct? I have never backtested a system in depth before, I do not have the time. But it seems to me that when backtesting, you would need to have a definate line to go by (kind of like the System integrity Favorite chase system). So I guess when this system was backtested, it was backtested using the closing line just so that there is a way to grade the plays (since like you said, lines fluxuate throughout the day)

G's pks · 06-13-11, 11:17 AM

Originally posted by dlunc3

Please do not confuse me with MadCapper... we had gotten in a heated agrument over a month and a half ago, i agree. Since then my posts have been to either lighten the mood and create a nice atmosphere or try to help out in your thread. I have apologized for my posts from back in April. Hopefully you can move past it like I have. We are both here to win money. I have no personal benefit to post this system here.. I gain absolutely 0 from it... I thought it would be of some help to other people on here. If you or others would not like me to run this thread, that is fine. Im here to make money like the rest of you.. my bank roll could use any help it can get

I am not...confusing you with anyone should I copy and paste all the posts the sbr mods had to divert from my thread by you? Pages of them...

dlunc3 · 06-13-11, 11:21 AM

Originally posted by G's pks

Are you turning over a new leaf than?

Since April you have done nothing but be negative in my thread...even though the losses have now been made up...

G, I have not trashed your thread since our heated argument back in April.. again, please do not confuse me with Madcapper... the only comments I have tried to make have been to either lighten the mood or to benefit your thread. I have tried to hold my tongue through some of the hateful comments you have made. I apologize if things have come out differently or if I have let anything negative slip since April.. I am sorry if I offended you since our argument. Anyway... it is behind us and over with.. Ill see you at the bank cashing our checks

dlunc3 · 06-13-11, 11:23 AM

Originally posted by G's pks

I am not...confusing you with anyone should I copy and paste all the posts the sbr mods had to divert from my thread by you? Pages of them...

All of those posts were from April like I said when we had our heated arguments... I agree I was very negative then and I apologize... we were both frustrated with the losing run we were on, and let that get the worst of us. Best of luck this week... I am still 100% on board with your plays and root for every one of them

G's pks · 06-13-11, 11:26 AM

Originally posted by dlunc3

When it comes to totals chase systems, I would assume that the only possible way to backtest them would be to either go by the opening lines, or the closing lines, correct? I have never backtested a system in depth before, I do not have the time. But it seems to me that when backtesting, you would need to have a definate line to go by (kind of like the System integrity Favorite chase system). So I guess when this system was backtested, it was backtested using the closing line just so that there is a way to grade the plays (since like you said, lines fluxuate throughout the day)

No the best way would be to go by the number you post...really no way to backtest by closing numbers! Because not everyone will catch the closing #'s...

So when you post ...there really needs to be a #...just like in my thread I often post based on the opening line...(but I often get a better line or average in) the books often bloat the opener knowing people have to leave for work...cannot access internet whatever...

I would say the best way would be to post a # when you post play...

You seem to know a lot about baseball...why not apply it and stop attacking? Seriously could this work...probably...just like all these guys posting the 1st inning system...

pagodo · 06-13-11, 11:29 AM

dlunc3,

Thanks for posting the plays, I'll also be tailing lightly for now, this looks really good and I love to play totals so this is right up my alley.

Great stuff, let's keep this thread peaceful