Big Dog MLB 2011

[bombCanada]

4/12:
Marlins +162 3.50u
Dodgers +160 3.50u
Rays +163 3.50u
Orioles +163 3.50u
Royals +135 3.50u
Indians +158 3.50u

Best luck!

[nicolaitanghoj]

Question.
Why do you raise your amount played on each game so often? You are talking about proper bankroll management, yet you are raisin and raising your units.
If you continue to raise, you will lose some day. You need to say.. I am choosing to play 3 or 3.5 or something like that the whole season. You are even saying yourself that you think the system is facing a bad run to get under 50% hitrate. If you race all the time, you will be so ****** in a bad losing streak.
My suggestion is to pick amount of unit now, and stay with it..

I have done the same as you, and it might hurt you one day

Btw. thx for the plays!

[BigMama]

great day for all

[rkelly110]

rkelly i saw that you were op 30 units on three month with the NHL dogs plays.. I that by just betting 1 unit on each game, or are you playing 3 like Bc?

What ever the lab line told me to bet. From 1 unit to 6 units.

I decided to try lab lines the 1st of the year, because I got my ass
handed to me the month before. Thanks to BC in getting me started
using lab lines, I recovered nicely the remainder of the NHL year.

I don't have the bank to bet 3 units, just doing 1 unit in MLB.

[rkelly110]

Congratulations on the roof. It's harder than it looks. I did the roof on the garage on my first house, and the old roof was so bad the garage was dryer with nothing but felt on the roof.

I remember a post you'd made a while ago about getting killed in MLB in previous years. Yet your approach to things seems pretty successful, and you don't play it? I don't quite follow. YTD how are your runline dogs doing? You are tracking this stuff, aren't you? I run several systems I don't actually play just because it's never the same to backtest... the closing odds are rarely the odds you could get at the time you sat down at the computer. Gotta practice it like you were playing it.

I didn't have a set system last year. I was following different posters,
didn't have a money management system and following my paid cappers.

I discovered my RL favs last year and things started to turn around.

YTD RL favs are consistent from last year. YTD is 57-30 65%
Interesting stat this year is, the RL favs on the ML is 44-43 50%, only
4 losing days in the young season.

You have a good system going BC, betting dogs using lab lines is the way
to go. Do you have last years stats on how you pick your dogs?

[rkelly110]

3 Double play's for today, Boston, LA Angels and San Fran.
(betting -RL is 62%, ML is 70%)

[Garfed]

You have your dog choose a standard? Obviously you do not play the dog days. If you have a secret recipe, no worries. As long as it kicks ass. 20 units the first week is awesome...

[bombCanada]

4/13:

Nationals +175 3.50u
Dodgers +138 3.50u
Rays +141 3.50u
Royals +164 3.50u
Orioles +165 3.50u
Indians +144 3.50u

Best luck!

[bombCanada]

4/12:
Marlins +162 3.50u *lose*
Dodgers +160 3.50i *lose*
Rays +163 3.50u *win*
Orioles +163 3.50u *ppd*
Royals +135 3.50u *lose*
Indians +158 3.50u *lose*

27-28 +35.68u

Slowly regressing toward somewhere in the 40% win rate... this was to be expected. But still, if we're going to have a regression, might as well do it after a great start! How many systems do you see go into the hole on the first day? So far I'm quite pleased.

[rkelly110]

LA Angels and San Fran won for double plays.

Chasing Boston for today.

I feel a good day for your picks, BC. (except Tampa) Get 'em!

[bombCanada]

Question.
Why do you raise your amount played on each game so often? You are talking about proper bankroll management, yet you are raisin and raising your units.
If you continue to raise, you will lose some day. You need to say.. I am choosing to play 3 or 3.5 or something like that the whole season. You are even saying yourself that you think the system is facing a bad run to get under 50% hitrate. If you race all the time, you will be so ****** in a bad losing streak.
My suggestion is to pick amount of unit now, and stay with it..

I have done the same as you, and it might hurt you one day

Btw. thx for the plays!

What you'll see is that I'll get to a point and the amount I wager per play will drop. I use a technique called Labouchere lines, which you can research here or elsewhere on the web. I appreciate your concern.

[bombCanada]

LA Angels and San Fran won for double plays.

Chasing Boston for today.

I feel a good day for your picks, BC. (except Tampa) Get 'em!

Thanks rkelly, GL with your plays also. I'm glad that you've hit your stride with MLB. In the end, the things that I do well with are often someone else's ideas (NHL biggest dog, Labouchere) which I have modified to make my own. My comfort level with what I"m doing day to day is important to me.

btw, I'm tracking MLB home dog and it continues to do well... by my record 27-13 as of yesterday, +49u using my secret sauce money management. Funny, it's like the dog system I'm playing now, same number of wins, half the losses... just noticed that. If it's still that way by May 1, I may change up. Thanks to you for pointing me that way.

[rkelly110]

Screw Boston, I won on your early play with the Royal's. Capped the game and it looked good.
Did a +1 bet on it. Caching!$!$ Taking my money and running like Forrest, Forrest Gump.

I'm at almost 22 units so far.

Yes, I've been keeping track also. Only played them once and they returned 3.8 units.

[bombCanada]

4/12:
Marlins +162 3.50u *lose*
Dodgers +160 3.50i *lose*
Rays +163 3.50u *win*
Orioles +163 3.50u *ppd*
Royals +135 3.50u *lose*
Indians +158 3.50u *lose*

27-28 +35.68u

Made a mistake in my spreadsheet, correct total is +33.68u.

[bombCanada]

4/14:

Nationals +150 4.00u
Orioles +178 4.00u
Tigers +139 4.00u

Best luck!

Gotta run, will finish up later.

[Vaioice]

Washington +147, 7.5

Play On - Home underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (WASHINGTON) - where team's hitters strike out 7 or more times/game on the season against opponent starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings.
(115-99 since 1997.) (53.7%, +62.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +140.1
The average score in these games was: Team 4.4, Opponent 4.7 (Average run differential = -0.3)

PHILADELPHIA is 29-40 (-19.8 Units) against the money line in road games vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 3.9, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 1*)

WASHINGTON is 23-12 (+11.7 Units) against the money line in home games vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 4.4, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 1*)

WASHINGTON is 17-11 (+13.4 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 5.0, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 1*)

WASHINGTON is 20-6 UNDER (+13.2 Units) vs. an NL team with an on base percentage of .340 or better over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 4.1, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 2*)

PHILADELPHIA is 40-22 UNDER (+14.2 Units) as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 3.9, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 1*)

PHILADELPHIA is 9-19 (-18.4 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 3.1, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 3*)

LEe - recent Starts
4/8/2011 at ATLANTA 3-6 -110 7 Loss,Over L 3.3 6 6 10 0 1 3 HUDSON(R)
4/2/2011 HOUSTON 9-4 -240 7 Win,Over W 7 3 3 4 1 0 11 RODRIGUEZ(L)
road starts ERA/WHIP 16.22 3.303

LEE is 2-0 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 2.25 and a WHIP of 1.188.
His team's record is 2-0 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (+0.0 units)
9/15/2009 WASHINGTON 5-0 -285 9 Win,Under W 9 0 0 6 0 3 9 MOCK(R)
9/9/2009 at WASHINGTON 6-5 -200 8.5 Win,Over W 7 5 4 10 0 0 4 MOCK(R)

Zimmermann - recent starts
4/8/2011 at NY METS 6-2 +140 7.5 Win,Over W 5.3 2 2 6 0 0 4 DICKEY(R)
4/3/2011 ATLANTA 2-11 +125 7.5 Loss,Over L 6 3 2 4 0 3 2 HUDSON(R)
Home ERA/WHIP Starts 3.00 1.167

ZIMMERMANN is 0-1 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 11.25 and a WHIP of 2.500.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-1. (-0.2 units)
9/18/2010 at PHILADELPHIA 2-5 +135 9.5 Loss,Under L 3 5 5 9 3 1 3 KENDRICK(R)
5/17/2009 PHILADELPHIA 6-8 -110 10.5 Loss,Over 5 5 5 7 0 3 6 PARK(R)

[rkelly110]

Excellent stats, Vaioice. Thank you..

[rkelly110]

Two double plays for today. LA Dodgers and Oakland.

[bombCanada]

4/14:

Nationals +150 4.00u *lose*
Orioles +178 4.00u *lose*
Tigers +139 4.00u *win*

now 29-34 +22.98u

[bombCanada]

4/15:
Marlins +190 4.00u
Pirates +160 4.00u
Mets +169 4.00u
Cubs +145 4.00u
Blue Jays +169 4.00u

Best luck!

Not sure if I'll be able to post over the weekend or not, but I'll do my best. Thanks guys, good luck this weekend!

[bombCanada]

4/15:
Marlins +190 4.00u *win*
Pirates +160 4.00u *win*
Mets +169 4.00u *ppd*
Cubs +145 4.00u *lose*
Blue Jays +169 4.00u *win*

32-35 +39.74u

Good Doggies!

[bombCanada]

4/16:
Marlins +180 4.00u
Angels +161 4.00u
Blue Jays +195 4.00u
Royals +135 4.00u

Best luck!

[rkelly110]

Good job, BC.

I'll be chasing Dodgers and the A's again today.

Home dogs are sucking. +RL fav's are still kicking butt. Actually all +RL's are doing good.
The +RL's over ML have better value and not as many per day. They also are some of
your picks.

[bombCanada]

Good job, BC.

I'll be chasing Dodgers and the A's again today.

Home dogs are sucking. +RL fav's are still kicking butt. Actually all +RL's are doing good.
The +RL's over ML have better value and not as many per day. They also are some of
your picks.

Thanks rkelly. I'll have to take another look at the +RL over ML. It's still early enough in the season I can go back and pull the data together. I need to update my home dogs tracking as well.

[bombCanada]

4/16:
Marlins +180 4.00u *ppd*
Angels +161 4.00u *win*
Blue Jays +195 4.00u *lose*
Royals +135 4.00u *win*

now 34-36 +47.58u

[bombCanada]

4/17:

Pirates +164 4.00u
Mets +171 4.00u
Tigers +149 4.00u

Best luck!

[rkelly110]

I see the Dodgers are up to their same 'ol shit from last year and they don't have Manny.
Oakland pulled through. I also had your plays on the Royals, Toronto and Angels +RL.

A money day $$$. GL today.

[bombCanada]

I see the Dodgers are up to their same 'ol shit from last year and they don't have Manny.
Oakland pulled through. I also had your plays on the Royals, Toronto and Angels +RL.

A money day $$$. GL today.

thanks!

[bombCanada]

4/17:
Pirates +164 4.00u *win*
Mets +171 4.00u *win*
Tigers +149 4.00u *lose*

now 36-37 +56.98u

[bombCanada]

4/18:

Pirates +155 4.00u
Angels +138 4.00u

Best luck!

[bombCanada]

4/18:

Pirates +155 4.00u *win*
Angels +138 4.00u *lose*

now 37-38 +59.18u

[bombCanada]

4/19:

Diamondbacks +149 4.00u
Pirates +180 4.00u
Nationals +140 4.00u
Giants +144 4.00u
Angels +177 4.00u

Best luck!

[rkelly110]

Good job BC, you'll be betting 50 units in no time.

Two double plays for today, Cincinnati and Philly chase for remainder of series.

Chili dog, in another thread said, away favs and home dogs didn't fair too well, last year.
That site I showed you might have been full of it.

[bombCanada]

4/19:
Diamondbacks +149 4.00u *win*
Pirates +180 4.00u *lose*
Nationals +140 4.00u *ppd*
Giants +144 4.00u *win*
Angels +177 4.00u *win*

40-39 +73.98u

This is almost impossibly hard to believe.

[bombCanada]

Good job BC, you'll be betting 50 units in no time.

Two double plays for today, Cincinnati and Philly chase for remainder of series.

Chili dog, in another thread said, away favs and home dogs didn't fair too well, last year.
That site I showed you might have been full of it.

rkelly, thanks for your steadfast support. I do appreciate it. I think a lot of things gelled for me in a style and methodology sense in the NHL biggest dog thread, and I owe it to you because you brought that thread back to life... it had been abandoned and you stayed in there and pounded the table. I couldn't resist.

And now this. As you know this is a variation on a dog strategy which involves chasing, but instead of chasing I'm using Lab lines. And with +money bets, Lab lines pretty much cross themselves out. I haven't had to get stupid at all with wager size.

Let me see if I can post a graph of some sort so you can see how it's gone so far.

Like I said, thanks again.