Any Systems/ Stratagies/trends for MLB

[axpiota59]

FWIW, be careful with the RL system.

2010 hit for 61.1% but that wasn't enough to compensate for the juice. Criteria, if I'm understanding this correctly is bet RL fav better that -222 if opposing ML line is higher (higher means closer to even money).

W 940 L 585 (-$31)

my 2 cents. GL this year Gents

[axpiota59]

sorry double posted

[axpiota59]

There is some hope for those looking for this kind of system play. If you changed a couple of criteria such as only playing RL favs better than -150 and at home (opposing ML criterion remains the same).

2010
60% W 172 L 113 (+$2,438)

not nearly as many plays but the difference is significant. BOL

[axpiota59]

I'll leave you guys with this one to kick start your 2011 MLB season. Easy enough to back track if you have reservations.

Lay the 1.5 runs on the home team ONLY in the first game of any series in April. This is alway dog $$ obviously. If the home team isn't giving runs then it's no action.

CAVEAT: last year's +32 Units in April was an anomaly. It was +7.8 Units in 2009 and (-) units in 2008 and 2007.

[ebbearsfb1]

So

There is some hope for those looking for this kind of system play. If you changed a couple of criteria such as only playing RL favs better than -150 and at home (opposing ML criterion remains the same).

2010
60% W 172 L 113 (+$2,438)

not nearly as many plays but the difference is significant. BOL

So play. Royals minus 160 at plus 1.5 not royals minus 140

[rkelly110]

FWIW, be careful with the RL system.

2010 hit for 61.1% but that wasn't enough to compensate for the juice. Criteria, if I'm understanding this correctly is bet RL fav better that -222 if opposing ML line is higher (higher means closer to even money).

W 940 L 585 (-$31)

my 2 cents. GL this year Gents

Good info, thanks for clarifying. You have to admit, losing $31 over the coarse
of the long Baseball season isn't too bad. It's still not plus money though.

Your info shows, betting on the +RL is better than betting ML fav's.

[rkelly110]

These games don't come up too often, but look for ML fav's that are also +RL dogs.
I don't have the numbers in front of me, but they hit at a good rate. Works for hockey too.

Example: Atlanta Braves +1.5 -300 ML-125. Bet the ML with great certainty.

[SportsAce]

Great info guys .
Anybody ever try lefty vs. Lefty Unders ?

Thanks

[BigJ]

Betting against Pitt on the road was a great money maker last year for me. I expect more of the same.

This is the best advice on this site. Also fade Seattle on the road, and maybe Arizona. No chasing. Just straight bets and you WILL make money this season.

[ebbearsfb1]

These games don't come up too often, but look for ML fav's that are also +RL dogs. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but they hit at a good rate. Works for hockey too. Example: Atlanta Braves +1.5 -300 ML-125. Bet the ML with great certainty.

usually happens after the line moves... if one team opens as a favorite

[SportsAce]

Thanks guys

[OMGRandyJackson]

Martingaling the blue jays ML was succesful last year. I gave myself a BR cusion of 12 straight loses. Because the Jays can get +odds often and can win those games, this was profitable last season.

[BigJ]

Martingaling the blue jays ML was succesful last year. I gave myself a BR cusion of 12 straight loses. Because the Jays can get +odds often and can win those games, this was profitable last season.

So, you took the Jays EVERY game? They were +1400 last season.
Would have worked with Cincy, SD & SF too.

You think it will work again with Toronto? Don't you think the lines makers will adjust this year?

[bombCanada]

A lot of people here telling my pal rkelly how his systems won't work because of (name it)... his stuff works, and works well, especially when you apply Labouchere lines to bet sizing... don't chase, don't flat bet, don't martingale. We all did very well with his work over in the NHL forum this year.

Good luck to us all!

[mikeanite]

it's like asking to take someones hot gf off their hand.

[Sawyer]

Fade Charlie Moron.

[rkelly110]

Sports betting has so many angles to win money, it's like roulette. Figure out what works
for you. I just started using lab lines the beginning of the year and has made a big impact
on my bottom line.

A lot of good angles to follow in here.

Thanks BC for the kind words.

[bombCanada]

rkelly's RL favorite system looks like it's having another good day today. (altho the day isn't over yet)

[SportsAce]

R Kelly
What are Lab Lines ?

Thanks again

[rkelly110]

Believe me Ace, I'm the last person you should be asking about Lab lines. I'll try to inform you.

Lab lines or labby is short for Labouchere method of betting. Originally designed for roulette.
You can Google Labouchere for all kinds of info.

Basically you decide how much you want to win per line/session. Usually 1-5% of your bankroll.

Using lab lines, you are only betting one game/ system a day. If you bet multiple games a day
this is not for you, unless you have different systems that use one game. Then you will use
a different line for each system.

The main goal is to win two numbers from your line from one bet and clear your line.

I want to win $10 per line. I will set up my line like this, 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5. I bet one game to win
$5 which is the total of two numbers in my line. (if you bet dogs, bet $5)

If the line is -222, I bet $11.10 to win $5. If it wins, my line will be x 2.5 2.5 x.
Always cross off the 1st number and the last number. If your next bet wins also, you won $10.
Start another line.

If you lose, your line will be 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 11.10. Your next bet would be to win 2.50 + 11.10.
$13.60 at odds of -222 you have to bet $30.22. If that loses, add 30.22 to the end of the line.
2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 11.10 30.22. your next bet would be to win $32.72, at odds -222 your bet
would be $72.71. You win. Your line looks like this, x 2.5 2.5 2.5 11.10 x. You win again.
x x 2.5 2.5 x x. Lose, x x 2.5 2.5 x x 11.10. Win, x x x 2.5 x x x. Next bet to win $2.50.

Sometimes it takes awhile to clear a line, thats why you start small, to win 1% of your roll.

You can profit with only a 35% win rate. The key word is patience and place your bet
with out prejudice.

Some guys use several lines to spread out losses. Cruise the threads, you will see different
angles. Basically do what you are comfortable with. Remember to clear two numbers with one
bet, working from the outside in.

Hope this helps, 'cause I have writers cramp.

[Maddhatter]

Interesting stuff. Thanks for the info RKelly.

[shinnman]

you can bet several games a day using labby, lets say your original labby is 5 5 5 5
5 5 5 5 you simply bet 2 or 3 games to win 10 and do the math later, lets say you win 2 bets and lose one laying 11-10. your new labby would look like
x 5 5 x 11
x 5 5 x
now if you bet 2 games the next day, one to win 16, and one to win 10

[shinnman]

sorry it was supposed to look like this
5 5 5 5
5 5 5 5 i always use a 2 line labby

[keano79]

So
So play. Royals minus 160 at plus 1.5 not royals minus 140

Don't you mean Royals -160 at -1.5 RL...? The other poster you replied to mentioned RL faves, so it got confusing when I thread your posting after that, lol. I just looked at all the plays tomorrow (4/4/11) and all the home teams have -RL.

[rkelly110]

Thanks shinnman, I do that sometimes too. I wanted to give the basics of lab lines.
Once you have the basics, you can use your own variations.

[SportsAce]

Thanks R Kelly

[spiderdrinks]

I will be posting my plays this year. I admittedly dont know anymore than the average person about any particular team. What I do with all my spare time is study streaks and trends. I will play with them and against them. I will definitely not have a play everyday. When I do I will post between 1-5 units with each play and if I have time give the resoning behind it. Today I feel extremely strong with the Reds (5units) on the ML being that they have not started the season 4-0 in 21 years. It simply has to happen at some point. I would avoid the run line in this game because there have been very few I believe 2 in 10 one run games between these two so the likely hood of a one run game is pretty high. Best of luck to all

[rkelly110]

Looks like a good bet spider. The better value is with Houston +RL if you think it will
be a one run game. Or bet both for a double. SBR's matchups has the Reds at an 85%
win rate at home against Houston. If you lose, chase 'em. GL

[SportsAce]

Love them Dogs, early in the season .

[SportsAce]

How's the systems going ?

[SportsAce]

Does anyone know at what percentage the underdogs usually win in a season ?

[SportsAce]

???

[samrock67]

Does anyone know at what percentage the underdogs usually win in a season ?

42.3%

[JMon]

I will give one of many I have...will not make your rich but very solid and SIMPLE through the years.

Interleague Home Favorite and Under

Parameters:

1. Interleague game
2. Bet ON Home Favorite <-105 and Under game total
3. Both are losing teams win %<50

Back Test

Since 2004

ML- 117-64 (64.6%) Ave line -148.4 (+8.6 ROI)
Total - 98-73-10 (57.3%) Ave total 8.8 (+8.9 ROI)

Year Breakdown: to win 100

2013:
ML: 5-0 (+500)
Total: 2-2-1 (-40)

2012:
ML: 10-9 (-271)
Total: 11-8 (+235)

2011:
ML: 15-8 (+439)
Total: 10-12-1 (-380)

2010:
ML: 9-2 (+605)
Total: 7-4 (+260)

2009:
ML: 14-6 (+490)
Total: 13-6-1 (+635)

2008:
ML: 18-11 (+125)
Total: 17-12 (+410)

2007:
ML: 11-14 (-1,195) Bad Year!
Total: 11-10-4 (+35)

2006:
ML: 12-7 (+235)
Total: 12-6-1 (+525)

2005:
ML: 7-1 (+570)
Total: 2-5-1 (-335)

2004:
ML: 16-6 (+810)
Total: 13-8-1 (+420)

Active today on Mariners and under....good luck if you choose to play

[JMon]

2013:
ML: 6-0 (+600)
Total: 2-3-1 (-155)

Active today on Sea and the Southsiders