JORGE's 1 Play-A-Day

[jorge1]

UPDATE:

LLL WK: +6.73x 6-2

LL MON: +3.28x 2-0
LL TUES: +5.35x 1-0
LL WED: +4.15x 2-1
LL THUR: +4.14 2-0
LL FRID: -5.83x 1-2
LL SATU: -5.10x 1-1
LL SUND: +18.34x 6-1-1

LMON: +13.28x 4-2
LTUES: -11.8x 0-1
LWED: -13.5X 1-2
LTHUR: +3.92x 3-2-2
LFRID: -5.425x 1-4
LSATU:-1.70x 0-1
LSUND: DAY OFF

MON: +2.52x 2-0
TUES: +0.00x 1-1-1
WED: +.98x 5-6
THUR: +.183 3-3

TOTAL: +19.518x 41-29-4

HITTING A 58.6% boys!

[jorge1]

seven o clock games usually end before 1010 right?

[sonnybaby]

on rays pick with ya my only play as well sorry bout that cincy game boys came out flat lets get em slime

[Nomadik]

Dark side, you are TOTALLY RIGHT>....i gotta get my control back...lately been seeing too many angles...but they havent been cashing..so gotta look for all them and condense down to the top 1 or two....that is why i like the plays i mentioned, picked the game i will ACTUALLY BE ATTENDING TONIGHT, and willl ride with it...

Whenever you start down this path, just simply look back at your thread title, "Jorge's 1 Play-a-day." Trust me I'm at the M Resort here in Vegas almost every day, and books thrive on this lack of control by the betting public. Why do you think Lee Amaitis, CEO of Cantar Gaming (which owns the M sports book), was a huge advocate of making competing lines and other information readily available to the betting public inside the M? Because they want you to see as many angles as possible, thus while you're chasing all various "action angles," they're collecting.

I think you'll be fine if you stick to the one to two games a day plan. BOL!

[Darkside Magick]

Whenever you start down this path, just simply look back at your thread title, "Jorge's 1 Play-a-day." Trust me I'm at the M Resort here in Vegas almost every day, and books thrive on this lack of control by the betting public. Why do you think Lee Amaitis, CEO of Cantar Gaming (which owns the M sports book), was a huge advocate of making competing lines and other information readily available to the betting public inside the M? Because they want you to see as many angles as possible, thus while you're chasing all various "action angles," they're collecting.

I think you'll be fine if you stick to the one to two games a day plan. BOL!

this is a excellent post!!!!

[jorge1]

Whenever you start down this path, just simply look back at your thread title, "Jorge's 1 Play-a-day." Trust me I'm at the M Resort here in Vegas almost every day, and books thrive on this lack of control by the betting public. Why do you think Lee Amaitis, CEO of Cantar Gaming (which owns the M sports book), was a huge advocate of making competing lines and other information readily available to the betting public inside the M? Because they want you to see as many angles as possible, thus while you're chasing all various "action angles," they're collecting.

I think you'll be fine if you stick to the one to two games a day plan. BOL!

Nomadic, you are totally right..I have had days where in a large card i hit alot of games, but lately its been my fault...lack of control. Period.

As you can see in my record i have fared pretty well, however, I dont wanna steer back into the 5 or 6 games daily routine..too much heartburn, headaches, money lost, etc.

I see like 4 other brilliant plays tonight but im sticking to my TAMPA BAY RAYS tonight for a healthy profit..if i bank, awesome, if i dont, i lost my daily roll, PERIOD...

And yes, i know its no coincidence that there is SO much info out there...actually i think the info sways ppl one way or the other...

that is why lately i have been cappin differently...my late success is attributed to just looking at the card and picking several winners just off the top of my head from what i watch and see and know...then i compare the few games looking at the secondary numbers and make a play or two..only problem is lately i have played more than just one or two...but thanks for the check bud!

always necesary to reassess and regroup...I am CONTANTLY doing so...IT seems like DAILY i do so..jejeje

[slimpickins]

We are definitely on the same page today Jorge, and I like that
Playing TB, KC and COL tonight. Just those 3 for me (placed them all last night too so I likely got good lines)

[Darkside Magick]

i feel if the 4 others are great plays then you should play them.. the problem i use to have was playing leans!!!! i have a math and stats program and sometime i would let a play thru because it was close to a certain number and boom it would lose....now i just play the strongest plays for the day even if it is 1 or 7...if they strong then play them

[jorge1]

before anyone asks, because later on you will and ill be out and about seeing tampa with my girl, ill post the plays i like...I must remind you, i am NOT playing these...i am only discussing them here...my only play has already been posted above

KC ML - You gotta like KC batting well, playin well lately against OAK (a good team IMO) and being well rested at home for todays game against CLEVELAND, who struggled against the Angels and went into deep innings last night to now hit the road...I dont see how they win this one, but it is a round ball and it can roll, twist and turn in odd and mysterious ways...KC is the pick.

MIN ML -Minny is the play here...MINNY on a 5 game winning streak, MINNY OWNS OAK this year 5 games to 1, MINNY in the race, amazing at home, amazing lately, Bats on fire, OAK lost last two against a sorry KC team, and BARELY won the first one, Anderson good but is hittable...he was hit well by TEXAS on the road as well as by Wsox on the road...BLackburn been FIRE since coming back...PERIOD

TB - already posted why...

COL - love colorado in this september race with UBALDO up there and a days rest to spare...DODGERS been struggling and KURODA is great, but not great enough to keep them out of trouble this time...


Guys, remember as a reminder to look at all the teams who rested yesterday who play teams that PLAYED yesterday...its a good idea to look into those games because that days rest can do wonders in certain situations...

pick your spots and be happy...i am playing one game, but at least i spit out some others to share my dumb opinion...

[jorge1]

DARK SIDE...i agree...if they are strong play them..but my personal problem the last day or two is playing plays which arent strong...

im an idiot because this week i had been building a little bankroll and today is the day to play all these plays...but now my BR is limited because of my loss in the football play last night so i can only make a runa t one play...i hate playing really good plays for small amounts..rather just bunch it all together and go for it...


bol

[slimpickins]

IMO Vegas makes money on baseball only becuase the public will chase loses.
Long term that is a surefire way to lose.
Most bettors will increase their bet size when they are losing which is the exact opposite of what you should do.

Vegas makes money in other major sports cuase they get action on both sides and collect the juice.
Lines are much sharper in these sports and you really have to look for angles (college and pro football and college and pro b-ball)
Baseball action is often one sided and the public favs often win despite what all of these SBR "sharps" claim daily.
My bankroll proves my point ; I got killed in basketball cuase I bet like a square but have cleaned up in baseball all season, winning 3x what I lost in the basketball season by picking only select plays, most of which have been square picks.

[Darkside Magick]

IMO Vegas makes money on baseball only becuase the public will chase loses.
Long term that is a surefire way to lose.
Most bettors will increase their bet size when they are losing which is the exact opposite of what you should do.

Vegas makes money in other major sports cuase they get action on both sides and collect the juice.
Lines are much sharper in these sports and you really have to look for angles (college and pro football and college and pro b-ball)
Baseball action is often one sided and the public favs often win despite what all of these SBR "sharps" claim daily.
My bankroll proves my point ; I got killed in basketball cuase I bet like a square but have cleaned up in baseball all season, winning 3x what I lost in the basketball season by picking only select plays, most of which have been square picks.

great point!!! with a 162 game schedule it is easy to get caught up in the madness. never chase losses!!!

[vinnie]

Jorge, is that your girl on your avatar? if so...u better hold on and don't let she goes to Korea...what an ass !!!

[jorge1]

Jorge, is that your girl on your avatar? if so...u better hold on and don't let she goes to Korea...what an ass !!!

vinnie, i wont lie, my girl has a fat KNOT! but i would never put her up on my avatar...Maybe one day when we split i will...andreita is a lady friend of mine though...colombiana

[Nomadik]

IMO Vegas makes money on baseball only becuase the public will chase loses.
Long term that is a surefire way to lose.
Most bettors will increase their bet size when they are losing which is the exact opposite of what you should do.

Vegas makes money in other major sports cuase they get action on both sides and collect the juice.
Lines are much sharper in these sports and you really have to look for angles (college and pro football and college and pro b-ball)
Baseball action is often one sided and the public favs often win despite what all of these SBR "sharps" claim daily.
My bankroll proves my point ; I got killed in basketball cuase I bet like a square but have cleaned up in baseball all season, winning 3x what I lost in the basketball season by picking only select plays, most of which have been square picks.

Of course Vegas makes money when anyone chases losses, not just joe-square-public. And to say "the public favs often win...daily" is, well, misleading. Which is it, daily or often? The best handicappers in the world could not survive the "vig" if all they were doing was picking "square-public-plays" on a daily basis. The juice is just too much to overcome. Now if you're "picking only select plays," well then that's a little bit different than betting like joe-square-public on a "daily" basis, isn't it? However, even if you were to only "take the pick of the public litter," are you telling me you're hitting over 60% of those public plays? Because that's what you would need to do, just to break even. And if you're "killing it" like you propose, you would need to be around 65-70%. Are those percentages attainable? Yes, and even higher...in the short run. However, you give me one above average capper that's hitting consistently above 58-60%, in the long run (several years NOT one season), and I'll be the first to sign up for his picks.

[slimpickins]

Nomadik: I understand your points and meant that espcecially lately there are countless posts daily about how all of the square picks are losing and I disagree when it comes to baseball.
I see many people now trying to find the best dogs, you have to be really good to dogs consistantly in baseball.
I don't proclaim to be really good.
I don't mean square picks win daily either. I mean hand selected certain plays that look great and playing them for large amounts even though they are obvious public / square plays can be profitable. Not doing this every day by any means maybe a couple a week maybe less. There will be good and bad weeks of course.
Guess I been just very lucky since June cause I have probably hit in the 50% range maybe a little higher on all plays but when I have played something big my percentage is extremely high since June, in the 70% range I would guess.
The site I use only shows the last 14 days and I wish I had logged everything into Excel but I never did.
I lost big just last week so it is not that easy but killed it the week before and am killing it again this week.
I haven't posted picks and don't want to run my mouth in Jorge's thread ; I just started posting a little back and forth here becuase Jorge has done a great job and is kind to respond and discuss picks.
Personally I am wrapping up the year and only am going to play a few more days but I am not lying when I say I am up huge this baseball season.
Likely just an amazing run of luck and it has been a challenge for me to quit while ahead cause it seems to be coming in easy right now, that is my challenge for the other sports starting and even next year in baseball. I have made enough that I should quit permanantly, take the family on vacation, etc.. and will be quite mad if I lose what I have won but the easy money draws you in. That is what gambling does to you and this is coming from someone up 5 figures on the year, imagine what someone down that amount feels.

[slimpickins]

A good friend of mine dabbles in betting baseball and we often email back picks on the few days he plays.
Every time he picks games they are all the big chalk public games and he basically always loses big or loses cause of juice while playing too many games and too many favorites. He is definitely down a decent amount this season.
I think that is how the majority of the public plays.
Not every day just chose a random day and lay money on NYY, PHI and all of the other big favorites that day.
These same people probably can't name more than a couple of players on each team.

I think in baseball you have to follow every day and monitor almost every game to have a feel for what is going on. I have played competitive fantasy baseball for 15 years now when the fantasy game just started I was in college and for that reason follow the sport closer than any other sport.
The hot teams and the hot pitchers of the moment are constantly changing.

[jorge1]

Of course Vegas makes money when anyone chases losses, not just joe-square-public. And to say "the public favs often win...daily" is, well, misleading. Which is it, daily or often? The best handicappers in the world could not survive the "vig" if all they were doing was picking "square-public-plays" on a daily basis. The juice is just too much to overcome. Now if you're "picking only select plays," well then that's a little bit different than betting like joe-square-public on a "daily" basis, isn't it? However, even if you were to only "take the pick of the public litter," are you telling me you're hitting over 60% of those public plays? Because that's what you would need to do, just to break even. And if you're "killing it" like you propose, you would need to be around 65-70%. Are those percentages attainable? Yes, and even higher...in the short run. However, you give me one above average capper that's hitting consistently above 58-60%, in the long run (several years NOT one season), and I'll be the first to sign up for his picks.

Nomadik: I understand your points and meant that espcecially lately there are countless posts daily about how all of the square picks are losing and I disagree when it comes to baseball.
I see many people now trying to find the best dogs, you have to be really good to dogs consistantly in baseball.
I don't proclaim to be really good.
I don't mean square picks win daily either. I mean hand selected certain plays that look great and playing them for large amounts even though they are obvious public / square plays can be profitable. Not doing this every day by any means maybe a couple a week maybe less. There will be good and bad weeks of course.
Guess I been just very lucky since June cause I have probably hit in the 50% range maybe a little higher on all plays but when I have played something big my percentage is extremely high since June, in the 70% range I would guess.
The site I use only shows the last 14 days and I wish I had logged everything into Excel but I never did.
I lost big just last week so it is not that easy but killed it the week before and am killing it again this week.
I haven't posted picks and don't want to run my mouth in Jorge's thread ; I just started posting a little back and forth here becuase Jorge has done a great job and is kind to respond and discuss picks.
Personally I am wrapping up the year and only am going to play a few more days but I am not lying when I say I am up huge this baseball season.
Likely just an amazing run of luck and it has been a challenge for me to quit while ahead cause it seems to be coming in easy right now, that is my challenge for the other sports starting and even next year in baseball. I have made enough that I should quit permanantly, take the family on vacation, etc.. and will be quite mad if I lose what I have won but the easy money draws you in. That is what gambling does to you and this is coming from someone up 5 figures on the year, imagine what someone down that amount feels.

Guys i love the discussion..let me put my two cents in...

I think its important to think WHAT ARE SQUARE BETS, and WHERE DOES PUBLIC MONEY GO?

In my opinion, In he sport of baseball its easiest for the public to call plays, however, a play that the public is on isnt necesarily a SQUARE BET...I feel like some plays are so obvious that the public will be on them, but it doesnt make it a bad play.

TO ME, personally, I feel like the SQUARE PLAYS are the plays that are OVER PRICED and that the public STILL takes as if this was football.

In football you see ALABAMA -750 vs some crap team and its OBVIOUS that ALABAMA will win unless some crazy fluke happens...

well, in bases, the lines dont get sooooo high, however, a -200 or higher line is PRETTY FREAKING HIGH...but lets look at which lines get to be that high, and WHY they are SQUARE BETS...

Perfect example for today:

PHILADELPHIA -290 vs WASHINGTON

Why is this a square bet? because PHILLIES are CLEARLY OVER PRICED here and the 83% of the PUBLIC is still on them! What makes this line so high is the public perception on the PITCHERS! and this is my point...

IN bases the lines are EXTREMELY SWAYED by pitching..but that is it..there are how many pitchers in the MLB? but how many pitchers or how many big names are there? Those are the ones to look out for and stay away from at times...

Roy Oswalt is great...i love him, he is an amazing athlete, but in the second half of the season these two teams have met 6 times, and PHILLIES have only won 3 of those 6...

so, just off common sense, these two teams are not even, PHILLIES are much better, but are they -290 better? NO...hell NO!

So just to summarize or get to my point, square bets are overpriced bets that public pounDS because of a pitcher's name...The pitcher is EXTREMELY important in a game, but books price them SUPER HIGH because they know the public will bet on them...

in reality, not thinking like a book, but thinking in actual odds, what does everyone think should be the FAIR odds of this game? Given the fact MArquis already beat PHILLIE AT PHILLIE and kept them to ONE RUN, makes me think this line would be fair at about -150 PHILLIES or so...i think PHILLIES would win this game 2 of 3 times or so...but the bookies price it way differently because its not about what the odds are of a team winning over another, its about market price...

and YOU ARE A SQUARE if you bet games that you are not getting a fair or better value in...period.

So, i feel that obvious wagers are NOT SQUARE wagers...but big name pitcher wagers OVERPRICED like this one are square and are not profitable in the long run...

[slimpickins]

I totally agree the value of pitchers and certain teams in the lines does not keep up with the trends if you follow the game very closely from day to day.
Big name pitchers are the best example of lines being not worth it and bad bets.
Same with teams the Cardinals, Braves lately have been playing like crap but getting huge - odds
Teams like Baltimore and Houston have been getting huge + odds despite having a better record over the last month than ATL and STL.
The public looks at the yearly records and yearly stats for teams and starting pitchers, but recent history is more important!


Earlier in the year the Cubs were god awful yet kept getting - lines
Now they have been playing well under the new interim manager but Vegas has not cuaght on and they have been undervalued so it swings and if you watch closely you can stay ahead of the obvious swing.

[jorge1]

I think everyone has different ways of making money in bases...but i think we ALL agree that you make money with VALUE!

In football people try to predict games 2 or three days a week...

we bases junkies have lots of games DAILY, and the ONLY WAY you survive this biz is VALUE...

I pick a couple picks a day, but the first filter i use is eliminating all the plays i feel are BAD VALUE...last night i said to myself "I WILL BET ON TAMPA TOMORROW NO MATTER WHAT AND BIG...THEY WILL WIN BECAUSE OF THE SITUATION AND EVERYTHING>>>as long as price is less than -200"

what was surprising is seeing the line come out at -145!!! but why is this?

the bookies threw out the situation, the fact that Angels struggled the last few days AND LAST NIGHT going into extra innings..the fact taht TAMPA has so much more rest etc etc and they priced this line jsut on the fact that HAREN is pitching for them and he is a name..so ppl right away will say OH HAREN, okay, not that easy for TAMPA>..but honestly, from MY analysis, i dont see this game being even close..it might not be a blow out, but tampa has EVERYTHING going for them in this game...its AMAZING value if you ask me....

[jorge1]

Exactly

[jorge1]

Yes slim. I always weigh in recent previous results above anything else. Baseball is about streaks and you just gotta catch on to the swings.

Next season I honestly have learned so much for I'm thinking of preparig a mini book of all my observations in the off season to help others.

Every year similar things happn just with different teams and I hope to really invest next year big and male big money

this season I will count and post later but I believe I have made over a hundred units. I'm not sure Eiter way I will review and learn in the off season to catch these value plays a little better.

Gret discussion

[sonnybaby]

Whenever you start down this path, just simply look back at your thread title, "Jorge's 1 Play-a-day." Trust me I'm at the M Resort here in Vegas almost every day, and books thrive on this lack of control by the betting public. Why do you think Lee Amaitis, CEO of Cantar Gaming (which owns the M sports book), was a huge advocate of making competing lines and other information readily available to the betting public inside the M? Because they want you to see as many angles as possible, thus while you're chasing all various "action angles," they're collecting.

I think you'll be fine if you stick to the one to two games a day plan. BOL!

[Mikail]

Guys i love the discussion..let me put my two cents in...

I think its important to think WHAT ARE SQUARE BETS, and WHERE DOES PUBLIC MONEY GO?

In my opinion, In he sport of baseball its easiest for the public to call plays, however, a play that the public is on isnt necesarily a SQUARE BET...I feel like some plays are so obvious that the public will be on them, but it doesnt make it a bad play.

TO ME, personally, I feel like the SQUARE PLAYS are the plays that are OVER PRICED and that the public STILL takes as if this was football.

In football you see ALABAMA -750 vs some crap team and its OBVIOUS that ALABAMA will win unless some crazy fluke happens...

well, in bases, the lines dont get sooooo high, however, a -200 or higher line is PRETTY FREAKING HIGH...but lets look at which lines get to be that high, and WHY they are SQUARE BETS...

Perfect example for today:

PHILADELPHIA -290 vs WASHINGTON

Why is this a square bet? because PHILLIES are CLEARLY OVER PRICED here and the 83% of the PUBLIC is still on them! What makes this line so high is the public perception on the PITCHERS! and this is my point...

IN bases the lines are EXTREMELY SWAYED by pitching..but that is it..there are how many pitchers in the MLB? but how many pitchers or how many big names are there? Those are the ones to look out for and stay away from at times...

Roy Oswalt is great...i love him, he is an amazing athlete, but in the second half of the season these two teams have met 6 times, and PHILLIES have only won 3 of those 6...

so, just off common sense, these two teams are not even, PHILLIES are much better, but are they -290 better? NO...hell NO!

So just to summarize or get to my point, square bets are overpriced bets that public pounDS because of a pitcher's name...The pitcher is EXTREMELY important in a game, but books price them SUPER HIGH because they know the public will bet on them...

in reality, not thinking like a book, but thinking in actual odds, what does everyone think should be the FAIR odds of this game? Given the fact MArquis already beat PHILLIE AT PHILLIE and kept them to ONE RUN, makes me think this line would be fair at about -150 PHILLIES or so...i think PHILLIES would win this game 2 of 3 times or so...but the bookies price it way differently because its not about what the odds are of a team winning over another, its about market price...

and YOU ARE A SQUARE if you bet games that you are not getting a fair or better value in...period.

So, i feel that obvious wagers are NOT SQUARE wagers...but big name pitcher wagers OVERPRICED like this one are square and are not profitable in the long run...

Excellent post and dead on.

[Nomadik]

Wow, now getting some very intelligent baseball discussion going here gents. Good points both Slim and Jorge! to making more of those greenbacks

[fox sixers]

I do exactly see what your saying.. and most od time would agree..

BUT

anybody that follows the phillies for real. this team is the BEST team in baseball right now.. No way you bet against them.. and I actually think hitting the phillies 2 team parlay tonight if you can find another game, is a GREAT idea.

They win tonight... not a question in my mind.. and actually the way this team is hitting and pitching. I understand -290 Marquis has lost his last 3 against philly. How Oswalt is pitching with this team's hitting, you just watch...

[fox sixers]

when marquias lost his last start in philly.. phillies couldn't hit.. it was a 1-0 score. this won't be the case tonight..

[jorge1]

I'll explain my post further lately. But I will say last time phillies were minus big money against wash a couple weeks ago didn't we cash fellas?


I'm at the game vitches! y'all see me?

[Nomadik]

Rush the field! Haha...and go hit Upton sorry, no hustling ass

[vinnie]

How about that triple by Crawford? Yeah baby yeah!!!

[slimpickins]

Not a good nite thus far, need Rockies to hold on
increased my bet on them when davies of kc blew chunks
go Rockies!

[vinnie]

Damn TB had lot of chances chances in 7th and 8th inning to get some runs but can't do shit.....this one hurted...oh well...time to move on...

[jorge1]

Lost my only pick last night. Imma look at the card but I'm honestly nearing my end in MLB. Truth is I made almost 100 units thisseason and I'm not willing to give backthe winnings

I took out almost all my monies and got 2 still in the MLB br. So here is my challenge

I wanna pick 3 games. Imma go all in these three games in a row. I either make em and build the br up to over a G or I simply lose and call it a season

let's do this. Who is with me?

[redsoxmn89]

good luck with that

[sonnybaby]

lets get it slime