JORGE's 1 Play-A-Day

[jorge1]

I took a break last week to reassess my game plan and freshen up the rest of the season. During last week I decided I would pick my best play of the day and do a write up. Yesterday I ended up having two plays, however, to make up for some days I didnt play. Here were last week's results:

6-2 / +6.73x

There was a healthy profit for anyone who followed all week flat betting one unit and played the appropriate units yesterday.

Onto this week. Now im in with a small BR trying to build it one play, one day at a time. I am looking to maximize my profits by picking a solid play and putting my daily roll on it, instead of splitting my daily roll into 5 or 8 plays and putting 5 times the work.

I will be specifying unit amounts, but im posting it in PESOS...so you convert it to whatever currency or pts, or whatever you wish.

Im not an experienced capper, only been bettin bases for 2 years. So if anyone wants to tail, just be warned. Always do your homework and feel sure about your plays even if tailin me, and beyond everything, please dont put your whole roll on one play even if im on a good streak, because losses do come and usually they come at the worst of times.

Ill be posting my play sometime today. Thanks for all the support and lets see how we fare.

STARTING BR: 711.76 pesos

[ayuntalo]

Fyck!
George your from the Philippines?!?
No wonder
pinoy din ako lol haha

[jorge1]

No, my woman is Pilipina though...i eat pilipino food everyday

Im venezuelan buddy...thats why i love big butts

[jorge1]

before i post my play for today ill share what i think of some of the other games in hopes of discussion. Also, will discuss what the plan is for the betting mounts.

NYY/OAK: NYY look tempting at this price at home, specially having owned the OAKs this year, however, Cahill takes teh mound. Granted, NYY hit him well winning 6-1 earlier in july, but im staying out of this one. Yanks have their colds also, and Cahill has been fire...so NO PLAY.

CLE/CWS: the tribe looks tempting, but the pitching matchup makes me stay away.

TB/TOR: TOR has owned TB this year, but TB has been on fire lately...Im not fading them, not in this rce anyways.

KC looks tempting as well, but WILSON looks like gold right now IMO...however, TEXAS, on the road, and priced at -172? no thanks

FLA looks tempting haiving owned the NATs lately, however, I just have this feeling that FLA is not my team to lay money on, specially with all this chalk (-151)

MIL/CIN: I dont like the chalk on cincy, and I dont like the brewers ont he road against a CINCI team that is money at home. NO PLAY

NYM are not a play for me when going to ATL..jurrjens on the mound...no play.

STL/HOU: STL looks like a winner, but Till they are not hot hot, im staying away...houston is too weak scoring runs. HOU already cashed last week...i would hate to give money back to bookies this week..lol.

SD/ARI: so unclear. I love fading good teams on losing streaks, but then again, SD OWNS ARIZONA..plus i DO NOT BET ON ARIZONA too often...if at all.pitching matchup favors PADS big time IMO.

I liked the OVER in the SF game, but not my strongest play

I kinda like SEA here as a home dog facing a struggling ANGELS team, but pitchin matchup im not solid on...

SO my game of the day is CHICAGO CUBS vs. PITTSBURG PIRATES

Big Z takes the mound against Maholm. Let me state that i like CHICAGO here, but i hate chicago in general. I dont trust them AT ALL, but regardless I feel they win tonight against a struggling PIT team. Its the total i really really liked in this game.

THe UNDER 9.5 (EVEN) looks SOOOO GOOD...The last 8 games have gone under 8 runs between these two clubs THIS YEAR. What worried me here was their recent high scoring. PIT has been allowing too many runs against MIL last series, and i would hate to face a melt down here and CHI take advantage.

If anyone lights up the board tonight, which i dont feel either do, will be CHICAGO. So i looked at the Team Totals and they point towards a 6-4 game here. That is what the books have projected. CHI has tt O5 juiced at -115...they wouldnt give you the 5.5 here because then the U5.5 with the hook would be very good. The PIT tt is U4.5 is juiced at -125. I expect it to come down to U4, or stay heavily juiced at 4.5...So i believe they predict a score of 6-4.

I dont see PIT scoring more than 4 here. If anything, they will hit the 4 run mark, but more than that?
their last 10 games they have struggled scoring, clearing the 4 run mark only 2 times.

Big Z...lets talk BIG Z...i like him here at home man...i really do. not because im venezuelan, but because he has been good lately. 1.89 ERA last 3, 16 hits, 4 runs, 12 strike outs. he has been facing good teams lately including: CWS, SF, STL, SD, and WSH (not in the good list, lol). These are all really good teams, whom he has put up a good fight against, allowing only 10 runs int he last 5 games, only 6 of which came in the last 4 games...so he has been solid coming back from his COO-COO break. Big z is LOCO, but he is GOOD...

CHC did allow lots of runs to cinci in two of their games this last series, however, CINCI is a solid hitting team, so to me, its no surprise.

Lastly, out of 12 games this year between these two clubs, PIT has scored more than 4 runs twice...so this play is 10-2 this year.

CHICAGO shuts PIT down. Granted, this wont be a comfortable win, PIT scores 3, maybe 4 here, but the probabilities of them hitting 5 runs tonite are about 20 - 25% IN MY OPINION.

Plus, Marmol has 2 days rest so, as one of my favorite closers, he will prbably close tonight if necesary.



PITTSBURG PIRATES TT U4.5 (-125) 2.11x to win 1.70x

[jorge1]

By the way, I am playing with a 7.11 unit bankroll to begin. I plan on playing 15% of an adjustable bank roll daily, however, to jump-start things, im playing 30% today in hopes to have 10 units by tomorrow.

Once i have 1000 pesos i will play 150 pesos each play until BR reaches 1500, then upping to 175 until 2000, and will determine further action at that point.

BOL fellas...hope some of yall like the play, or perhaps dislike it enough to FADE

[jscott1586]

looks good. goodluck on ur pick jorge

[jorge1]

thanks man...It will cash...im positive

[Bluedragon]

What do you think about the Jays/TB under?

[Bluedragon]

Actually you know what forget that... now that im really thinking bout it...I like your PIT UN 4.5 and Im also really starting to like the Jays OV 3.5...Davis is definitely hittable. 4.5 not sure but 3.5 Jays on the road with the 9th bat guaranteed (weather aside) they should be able to do that.

[jorge1]

TB/TOR UNDER 8.5.

Opened at 9, moved to 8.5...This year their meetings have been either very very low scoring, or blow outs. In august they had a 2-1, and a 1-0 game, but then also had a 17-11 game...lol.

TOR has been up and down in their last ten also. Only one low scoring game for them lately was against DET 3-2 facing VERLANDER.

TB has been under the last 3 games, but then had some huge blow outs as well..nothing consistent...netither team is defenging extremely well, or batting well...but neither is struggling consistently either.

CECIl has been OVER 9 runs the last 3 games, but is under 2-1 this year against TB.
DAVIS, is OVER last 2 games, and had his only game against TOR go in the under 2-3

EVERYTHING points for the OVER, if anything IN MY OPINION, although the public is pounding the UNDER.

Perhaps I dont see a clear clear angle here, but most things point toward over. their history has been really up and down both facing each other, and in general as of late.

If i were to HAVE TO play something here, i would play UNDER 9 (buy the hook) just due to pure gut...instinct tells me TOR has been owning TB the last 4 games, so TB wants a win...TOR wont just fold over, but TB wont just hand it over...it will be a tough game, and i think it would come down to pitching, as it did last night for the first 5 innings.

UNDER 9 if anything...BOL friend..hope this helps

[jorge1]

Thanks for taking confidence in my play. Hope it does you right.

I wouldnt play the O3.5 for TOR though. They are 1-6 in that dept last 7 games when facing TB this year. they have hit:

3, 0, 1, 3, 2, 17, 1

last 7 games...if anything, the UNDER 9 sounds better bro.

[GTeater]

Great insight, and BOL to you. My bookie (sportsbook ) is offering under 4 for the PIT game.

[jorge1]

GTeater...i had SB for a long time, now got 5D...quit them ASAP man...5D and bookmaker are MUCH MUCH better for bases...i had them until last month for the last 2 years but 5D is way BETTER!!! props, lines, options....just MUCH MUCH BETTER...

in 5d you get the -1 line....sportsbook is crap in my opinion as far as prices etc my friend...

BTW, i wouldnt take the U4...u might find yourself pushing...I think it will land on 3 or 4 (the PIT score)

BOL

[Bluedragon]

Ahh. Great points. Tailing.

Thanks brother.

[GTeater]

Right on Jorge, I've had multiple issues trying to cash out, and their juice is HORRID.

Before the playoffs I'm going to fully withdraw and switch over, 5 Dimes seems the place to go.

[jorge1]

DO it asap man...you are loosing out on so many plays, and so much juice, its substancial over the course of a whole month IMO

[jorge1]

Second play of the night, just to fade the public and spite all those on cahill


NYY RL +158 1x


NYY already lit Cahill up this year...Post season around the corner, great price...just wanna fade public here...fack it mode

[gamble]

like the analysis on the games earlier in the thread, was also looking at the under in chicago but may just stick to my one play, good luck man

[jorge1]

Guess I wasn't wrong about BIG Z tonight. He has only allowed two hits. What a stallion.

[jorge1]

Cash both today's plays. great Monday everyone... Onto tomorrow!

[jorge1]

Yesterday went 2-0 cashing +3.28x. Since the start of 1 play a day record is 8-2 for +10.01x.

For the sake of my own bankroll im only keeping track of the new winnings starting this week on sunday, which is when i really started off my vacay.

CURRENT BR: 1039.17 pesos (+539.17)

Play for the day coming out in 10 minutes...BOL everyone

[ayuntalo]

Yesterday went 2-0 cashing +3.28x. Since the start of 1 play a day record is 8-2 for +10.01x.

For the sake of my own bankroll im only keeping track of the new winnings starting this week on sunday, which is when i really started off my vacay.

CURRENT BR: 1039.17 pesos (+539.17)

Play for the day coming out in 10 minutes...BOL everyone

more than 10 minutes already jorge
just kidding...
looking forward to see your play today,
like your style of grinding out the best play for you

[jorge1]

MILWAUKEE BREWERS @ CINCINNATI REDS

I like this game alot because of the pitching situation. Although at first glance looking at the line I wanted to take the Reds at home, I noticed they have Aaron Harang coming back from the minors after being off since the end of june. In the first half of the season he was doing fairly well, winning 5 of his last 8 games, but was injured and is now coming back.

Then i opted to take the Brewers (because of Aaron's come back), but they are sending Gallardo up to the mound. Gallardo has pitched two losses to the Reds already this year.

So, since neither team made me feel too confident due to their respective pitching, I opted for the O/U. Looking at the game total, I noticed Gallardo has pitched OVER 5-1-1 his last 7 games. Facing Cinci this year, he has pitched in the over as well on both games.

Harang allowed 6 and 5 runs in his last two games this month in the minors, so he isnt really coming back in stellar tip top shape.

This year, these teams have hit over 8.5 runs 5 of their 6 games facing each other. Historically they both bat alot against each other, but its sufficienly enough just looking at the 6 games this year.

Milwaukees last 4 games have all gone over 9 runs, and in their last 10, they have gone over 8 games.

CINCI, on the other hand, has gone over 8.5 runs 5 games their last 7. and have gone over the 8.5 mark their last two games consecutively.

These are two heavy batting teams, facing a struggling pitcher in gallardo, and a returning pitcher in Harang. They always bat a TON against each other, and It would surprise me to see this total go under 8.5 today given the pitching matchup.

To add to all of this, Milwaukees bullpen is half rested, and CINCIs is DEPLETED! Only guy with 1 days rest is Arthur Rhodes, pretty sad considering they are sending up there Harang.

Milwaukee might put up the 9 runs on their own, but lets make this a collective effort.

Play of the day:

MIL/CIN OVER 9.0 (-110)

Im actually playing:

OVER 8 (-160) 1.25x
OVER 9 (-107) 3.17x

I did this because i wanted to risk 5.39 units of the 10.39 i have in the BR. If i did 5.39 units on the 8.5(buy the hook) i get it at -135, so i win 4.0. If the total is 8, i lose 5.39 units. By doing what i did and splitting my bet into these two different wagers, OVER 8 and OVER 9, If the score is 8 i push 2.0x, and losose 3.39x. If the score is 9, I win 1.25, and push 3.39. If the score is more than 9, which i EXPECT TO BE COMFORTABLY, then I win 4.41x. So i win more than OVER 8.5, and i have less chance of losing my 5.39 units on the game.

I expect this to cash comfortably, just explaining.

BOL to everyone

[Alki]

Thanks jorge1. Appreciate your efforts.

[jorge1]

Adding an additional bill to the OVER 9...just that hunch to go big or go home on this game...

MIL OVER 9 (-107) .9346x

[chibears]

DAMN. wow your confidence in this game is contagious. threw quite some bills on this play too good luck

[Razzzzzor]

[Handjuice]

Yanks are about to do it again !!@

[Popular]

Looking good early

[jorge1]

DAMN. wow your confidence in this game is contagious. threw quite some bills on this play too good luck

Yanks are about to do it again !!@

Looking good early

Guys thanks alot for your positive compliments and energy. Yeah, great start of the game with 3 runs in the first inning. The top of the fourth i couldve sworn was going to be great with the bases loaded and one out, but the DP killed it. OH WELL...

I just noticed CINCI homered two men in and someone is now on second base. Pitching has been horrible this game, IMO. even the pitchers are gettin on base No problem, lol...

current runs batted in: 5
Runs to go: 5 to win!

BOL to all and thanks for those who drop by to leave your good energy here.

Jorge



BTW, Handjuice, The play wasnt on the Yanks but if it is your play, GOOD LUCK!

[jorge1]

man on third, one out, hoping to have the sixth run come in here soon...

[Alki]

It's amazing how many chances these teams, esp. the Brewers, have had to score a few more runs and they've been sleep walkin'.
Should have been way over by now but they're making it drag on out.
We'll get it. Keep the pressure on.

[Razzzzzor]

Good hit on the Over my dude

[jorge1]

Thanks razzor. I was honestly bummed to see u on the other side today but we all have our point of views and angles on games. Bol tomorrow buddy. I always look out for your posts. Thanks for coming by.

[jorge1]

Alki

It's amazing how many chances these teams, esp. the Brewers, have had to score a few more runs and they've been sleep walkin'.
Should have been way over by now but they're making it drag on out.
We'll get it. Keep the pressure on.

Thanks for all the the support and constantly coming by. U played this right? It was a huge play for me risking over six bills but with the pitching and the batting I was very confident in the play. Thanks for your confidence as well. Hit me up with your plays some time to discuss them.