JORGE's 1 Play-A-Day

[jorge1]

Davies is scared now...JAJAJAJAJAJA...where is that fire?



OH STOLEN BASE!!!!! man on 2nd and 3rd...guys, lets FACKIN GOOOOOOOOOOOOOPO

[jorge1]

3 balls, no strikes and the TOUGH part of the LINE UP to come...cabrera RIGHT AROUND THE CORNER!!!!

[jorge1]

WALKED


BASES loaded!!!!


tigers take ADVANTAGE!

[chibears]

damon better have a good at bat and get a hit or a walk.

[jorge1]

Here is where Johnny Damon is valuable...6 grandslams...

Davies all over the place with a breaking ball in the dirt...he is in trouble man

too bad 2 outs on the board, but gotta believe right here!

2 balls, no strikes...

[jorge1]

come on DAMON...dont get on that separation boy!

[jorge1]

3-1...fack man, walk HIM!!! get cabrera ON !!!!!!

[jorge1]

3-2 full count

[jorge1]

Fack man...bases loaded, damon swinging and misses...

[chibears]

Fack man...bases loaded, damon swinging and misses...

atleast we have to hope gala gets 3 more outs to atleast give us a push. a loss would suck

[chibears]

we might not even get a push the way gala is pitching. walk the lead batter

[GTeater]

Shieeet, man on

[jorge1]

Yeah bro...sucks...

Onto the next, and i must say one thing, I am sticking to playing 2 games max per day, with 10% of BR per game starting tomorrow...started this week on fire, and the last two days really facked me...

Let this ride!

HOUS -105 2x

COL +121 5x

i like HOU alot, just dont wanna risk so much more of my BR..but i would play them large...The ARI pitcher is CRUD and we all know what happens when ARI pitching sucks...

COLO will not allow for SD to come out of the 9 game winning streak easily...ive been lookin at the play for hours and its good


BOL im not watching anymore bases guys...this FF gave me a headache bro

[jorge1]

COL RL +190 .9x

[jorge1]

Im torn here between several plays but I really REALLY like this play, specially at this price.

DETROIT TIGERS @ Kansas City ROYALS FIRST FIVE

Detroit KNOWS KC really really well. They have met 14 times this year, and are 8-6 against the Royals. I particularly like the First 5 innings in this one due to the pitching match-up. Lets cap this:

Galarraga vs. Davies: Galarraga L3 has: 1.4ERA, 19 IP, 16 hits, 3 runs, 14 SO, 2 BB, and only 1 HR. He did lose his last two on the mound, but lets examine those games:

8/25 vs KC at home: In his 6.1 innings he gave up how many runs? 1! 5 hits, 2BB, 4 SO with a 4.04 ERA. the first 5 innings DET was winning 3-0 and then went cold at bat and lost the game in x innings...

8/31 @ MIN: In his 6 inning outting he only allowed 8 hits, 2 runs, 0 BB, and 2 SO, with a 3.98 ERA. But first 5 they won 3-0. Galarraga gave ZERO runs his first five innings while DET got on the board in the first inning.

So in reality, in pitching matchups GALARRAGA's first five are outstanding. he has won DET the last 4 of his outtings.

KYLE DAVIES: my man is 1-4 last 5 on the mound. L3 he has a 5.31ERA, with 20.1 IP, 29 HITS! 13 Runs, 16 SO, 4 BB, and 1 HR.

Main thing to point out is 13 RUNS last 3 outtings! He got torn up by detroit 24th of august. Lets examine his ff stats his last few outtings.

@DET 8/24: 4.2IP, 12 Hits, 7 Runs, 5 SO, 1 HR, 5.41 ERA. DET took this 7-0 the first five innings.

vs TEX 8/30: Tex took FF 2-0. He pitched 8.1 innings, 10 hits, 3 runs, 1 bb, 6 SO, 5.23 ERA.

Lastly, lets look at DET ff against KC:

W 4-2
L 0-4 (Bondermann vs GREINKE)
W 3-0
W 7-0
W 5-1
W 5-1
P 0-0
L 0-4
P 3-3
L 0-4
L 3-5
L 0-2
P 0-0
L 1-4

As we can notice, Earlier in the season DET really struggled coming out and beating KC early, but since june DET is 5-1 FF against KC.

With these stats, Recent DET success (3 game winning streak), recent dominance of DET over KC 4-1 last 5, and a sorry KC team that is 2-6 last 8 games...adding great pitching by DET as of late, and sorry pitching by Davies, I see this as my best wager today for the early games.

I honestly didnt look at the night card but for me it was between this game and TEX game, which i feel strongly TEX takes it but there are some things that scare me off, like their recent losing streak (i hate taking teams on losing streaks)...so here it is:

and if your question is why FF? Easy, DET comes out swinging and i like them taking it early...just worried to lose the game late like their last game 3 of the last series in DET. Plus, i feel DOMINANCE from Galarraga over Davies big time here.

DET FF ML -120 (3.0x~2.5x)
DET FF -.5 +105 (2x~2.1x)

A PUSH/LOSER 0-1-1 so FAR

[jorge1]

Adding some more on HOU

HOU -104 3x

[jorge1]

Good evening guys..ill get on tonight to recap the weeks action, do some accounting and game plan for next week...



What do you know, COLORADO already hitting doubles and so on...JAJAJAJAJAJAJA

[Alki]

Can't believe Johnny Damon F86ked us striking out with the bases loaded against a pitcher who couldn't find the plate. Damn.

I don't disagree with your COL side but my play is to wait until SD wins one, whenever that is, then go against them in their next game. That's been a formula I've used for years with teams on losing streaks. Was why I took a hefty price on the Reds yesterday.

I also thought you were maybe going to come with the HOU TT under again today. You're the expert on that and if you hold off on it, I hold off.

GL with the rest and congrats on TOR. Big score!

[Alki]

Oops. Forgot to tell you that the LAD are toast now. Really bad beat last night to SF. Kind of loss that breaks a team's spirit. Dodgers have nothing to play for, SF grins like a cheshire cat. If SD loses for you today, the Giants will be sittin pretty tonight. I don't care who's pitching either. Everybody love LA tonight. I'm takin the Bay Boys.

I'll check in later.

[thechaoz]

Where did you get those FF stats J? Just curious I'm always looking around for good information.

[jorge1]

I got them on covers. Not filtere I had to dig game bygame

[jorge1]

Alki I understand but as an underdog u gotta take Colorado

plus the key is to wait for good teams to be in loosin situations

I like your approach of betting against a team after their first win but my cappin criteia told me colorado

I look at L3 and L10 then I look for pitching and teeny pitching. Then I look at bullpens

All these San Diego was onthe loosing side if the Colorado cashes I'll tail ya for 100 to be on it with buddy. Deal? I got faith too bro

by the way I didn't play the Houston tt because the ariZona pitcher sucked but look IT STILL CASHED

I'm telling ya. That stat is cash rest of the year m friend

[jorge1]

Alki btw I wanna commen on something u mentioned. I respect your situational play on the dodgers And it will most likely cash BUT you gotta gotta gotta always care about the pitching

I think if u can bu your finger on pitching u will r succesful capping. ALWAYS. Bol

[jorge1]

Cash Colorado despite half the forum chasing on SD

[jorge1]

Allí yaking your word here Bud

giants -1 +164 2x
no score 1 inning -150 3.25X

[jspectyper]

Allí yaking your word here Bud

giants -1 +164 2x
no score 1 inning -150 3.25X

Nice cash in the no score first inning. Wanted to play it but I was too late

[jorge1]

CASH that bit!

I'm getting near that 3k BR we were talkin about

[Popular]

Still killin it Jorge..

[jorge1]

HOUS -105 2x
COL +121 5x
COL RL +190 .9x
HOU -104 3x
giants -1 +164 2x
no score 1 inning -150 3.25X

WHAT A RUN!!! Thanks alki, for talking me into the evening game!!!

[jorge1]

Alki, hooked ya up with some pts... i made 50 pts on the SPECIAL line...so 25 is your cut plus 2 points...

27 is my lucky number so works out perfectly

[jorge1]

L WK: +6.73x 6-2

MON: +3.28x 2-0
TUES: +5.35x 1-0
WED: +4.15x 2-1
THUR: +4.14 2-0
FRID: -5.83x 1-2
SATU: -5.10x 1-1
SUND: +18.34x 6-1-1

THIS WEEK: +24.33x 15-5-1

TOTAL: +31.06x 21-7-1

I told you guys...Im on a mission for some real cash this month..Up 31 units in two weeks and hitting exactly 75%...

Who is with me?

Tail if you like, Fade if you feel gravity gonna pull me down now...just be happy and enjoy the rest of the season

[Salmon Steak]

nice work jorge1

[ayuntalo]

yo bud nice call on SF tonight.. what made your decision to play them instead of LAD.. im on dodgers and i lost my bet without a fight

[Alki]

Great work Jorge. Big day today. I'll check back in with you in the morning. Need to keep it rolling throughout this coming week. Need to explain my pitching statement to you also for clarification.
Thanks man....for the pts as well. Appreciate everything.

[Alki]

The Pitching Variable

Alki btw I wanna commen on something u mentioned. I respect your situational play on the dodgers And it will most likely cash BUT you gotta gotta gotta always care about the pitching

I think if u can bu your finger on pitching u will r succesful capping. ALWAYS. Bol

Jorge,

Here's what I meant about pitching:
First example is last night and the SF/LA game. If I went strictly on pitching, I'd see that Kuroda had been very tough of late and Sanchez was 0-6 against the Dodgers. On the surface that would have a direct effect on putting any good money on SF. But the situation, as I mentioned to you earlier, overruled that in my handicapping the game. So we bet the Giants.

Second example is from Saturday. My bet on Cincinnati over the Cards. If I just looked at pitching, no way would you take a chance on Travis Wood over Adam Wainwright pitching at home. Just no way. Wainwright is a Cy Young candidate and was something like 12-1 at home if I remember correctly. Reds were +170 dogs and as I mentioned to you I liked them a lot. Another case of pitching alone would have overruled my 'situational' handicapping of the game.

Third examxple is about two weeks or so ago when the Phillies were on a slide and couldn't win a game. Your boys in Houston were hot at the time and were at home. JA Happ was pitching against the almighty Doc Halladay. The world was all over Halladay to the tune of -330 on the road! Now Houston was hot, Halladay was supposed to prevent the Phillies from being swept and guess who is pitching for the Stros? JA Happ who was just recently traded from the Phillies. Again, pitching tells you there is only one way to go - Roy H - or you stay off the game. I got lucky with JA Happ at +290.

And lastly, as I mentioned to you in here above somewhere, if the Padres had won yesterday - which they obviously didn't - I would have made a good sized bet against them today with their ace on the hill, Latos at home against the team I bet against last night. Only because of the situation.

So what I'm saying is that you are completely correct that pitching is the MOST important factor in 98% of the games played. You do an excellent job of identifying the match ups and strengths of the opposing pitchers and I follow your work. But there are times - special situations as I call them - when I throw pitching out the window, close my eyes to it and bet the situation. Do I win 100% of those? Of course not. But almost always the plays I'm talking about are medium to large dogs and I wouldn't even have to be right half the time to be way ahead of the situational plays. Though I haven't kept an exact record, I would guestimate somewhere around 65-75% accuracy on the special situations. The problem is they don't come around often enough and I'm sure I miss some just because there's too much going on and I can't find them all. Just so happens there were two this weekend I mentioned.

Anyway, hope you see my point.

In the meantime, who you got today????