JORGE's 1 Play-A-Day

[jorge1]

I would love to follow my friend. The only problem is that my locals don't have TT bets. I will tail you on the rest of your picks (hopefully I can catch your picks before game time cuz I can't get to a computer all the time). GL to all and I have send you some points as a token of appreciation.

Okay, no problem...but i must say, if you track back, ive made a killing with team totals...its an IMPORTANT aspect of bases in my opinion...sometimes i have a firm hold or a good good idea of how a team will respond to a certain pitcher and they are usually solid plays, i.e yesterday's 10 UNIT winner with the HOUSTON TT U6.5

[slimpickins]

Let's give it a go ; I will put aside $500 for your picks and see what happens. Often don't check forum real clsoe to game times though so I may miss a few. If the $500 goes to zero, no worries.
Not your problem but my book doesn't have team total or FF bets, so many times what you wager on I cannot.
Are you posting your picks for this $500 BK in dollars or pesos? ; I have no idea the current rate, sure I could google it though?

[jorge1]

many people joining your thread now jorge.. i remember last time you said you are going to take a day off (but didnt) i can say your on your way UP bro.. Best of Luck as Always!

yeah man...glad to see lots of positivism, but i never forget those of you who been around the whole time cheering me on and putting in the positive energy...thanks for always beeing around my PINAY friend

BTW, my old lady made me ADOBO and lumpia yesterday....WHATS UP PUTO? jajajja

[jackmyhoggoff]

let's play!

[jorge1]

the MLB season is almost over? will u be switching to another sports or will u try 500 to 5000 before the season finishes? another problem us europeans will miss often 7-10pm games when the picks are posted before the game (like your LAD pick last night) because it's 3-4am our time and obviously we are sleeping. is it possible to set a limit say - 7pm ET to post all your picks?

There is PLENTY of season left...This 500 to 5000 i hope to make possible within the month of september if not sooner...like 2 weeks...honestly id be at like 7500 or so if i didnt monkey around and deviate a couple of days these last two weeks..but for this run we are about to begin im staying disciplined and trying my BEST to make it in 2 weeks...believe it or not...

As far as timing for the picks, i cant promise much...the LAD was a spontaneous play...wasnt ANY research or studying done on the game...just felt like fading SDG, logged in through my phone, played it and posted it just for the record...but my big plays...like the ONE A DAY PLAYS i usually post during the day...but again, sorry, but cannot promise much...ill try, ya know? sometimes, i even post them OVERNIGHT...just check in and hit me up anytime you need to know what im leaning...

When does this start?? I am in for sure

Im starting TODAY

[clint227]

I'm in with 100 bucks. What are your units so I can ratio them to mine? Which book do you use so we can get the same lines bets etc..

[mrginandtonic]

One quick question, Jorge, with the $500 bankroll, each unit of your play is how much?? just want to be consistent with ya. thanks.

[jorge1]

Some quick clarifications, now that i see lots of ppl are interested:

First, This is a fraction of my BR...im up about 5300 so far, but im doing the 500 to 5000 for everyone to follow and attempt something similar....However, DO NOT wager whatever money you dont feel comfortable wagering...if you wanna start with 5 bucks, then do so...but i dont want any complaining or Vitching when we lose 3 or 4 games in a row...it happens and its a FAIR warning...i am FULLY CONFIDENT that we can do this, if not i wouldnt devote the time to it, but still, that isnt a GUARANTEE of any sort...so GAMBLE AT YOUR OWN RISK and DO NOT BLAME YOUR DIVORCES on ME...

only reason my PILIPINO woman doesnt leave me is because for the last two months ive shown here 5k in the bank to shut her up...lol...

BTW, last month guys, i didnt cap games much...I left all the cappin to PACO...and made a KILLING..so mad props to him...

LASTLY, say you put your little 50 bucks, or 500 aside...Im not your boss, but MY STRATEGY works the way I PLAY IT....meaning, SOMETIMES i PUSH the envelope, SOMETIMES im conservative.

I try not to play a BILLION plays a day and that has been the key to success lately.

Feel free to fade as well...HAVE FUN!



BTW, you dont need to feed me points or anything, but i see it as respect once in a while to drop a few...its like givin props for a winner, you know? but if you dont feel like it, keep em...fack it...i care more about the CHEDDAR!

[jorge1]

OH OKAY...couple more things:

I use 5 dimes right now...thinking about also going with BOOKMAKER, but right now 5DIMES.

when i post a unit like this:

HOU +120 1x

the 1x means im placing 100 on HOUSTON..the +120 means ill make 120..so its 100 to win 120...

When the line looks like this:

HOU -120 1x

That means im playing 120 to win 100...meaning im risking 120 to win the 100.

Each 1x, or EACH unit is 100.

Im starting with 500, or 5x...and will be aggressive at first...so if you start questioning, "wait, but why are we betting more than 10% of our BR in one play?" well, its because if i have 500 pesos, and i wager 10%, or 50 pesos on a play a day and waste 4 to 5 hours between capping, accounting, posting, etc, its not worth the time...gotta make a few leaps and then once the BR is comfy then chip away at our goal...

plus i snipe plays, or have been lately...im not the BEST CAPPER in the world...trust me...i dont even feel like im much of a capper..but when i see a GOOD investment, i go BIG!

BOL guys, any more questions?

[swagger]

BoL Jorge, I'm confident you can do this! I'll check in once in a while to see how you're doing

[jackmyhoggoff]

let's getter done! GLA!

[jorge1]

If i play any college football tail at your own risk but im not including that in the 500 buck BR...i havent been and i wont..cant mix apples with oranges, and my current run with MLB cannot be mixed up with other sports...trust me, i know why i say this...

and this is jsut my advice, be careful betting football right now...be REAL carefull...i cant say DONT DO IT, but tread lightly...the season is REALLY YOUNG and its hard to pick your spots...i mean, based on what, on past years results? MLB is in FULL SWING...you knwo the good teams, the bad teams, the pitchers, the streaks, the batting...and if you arent successful in bases, trust me, i dont think youll fare too well in football, at least not this early in the season...

its hard to cap certain things that happen in football, specially as teams settle in first couple weeks...

example: i played RICE TT U13.5 on saturday for like 3 or 4 units...solid play...TEXAS D is better, faster..they never allow more than 10 pts in their openers...rice cant score $hit...i mean, based on past results its a great play...

40 seconds to go, rice 10 points...they PUNT, so i say, sweet, this bit CASHED...texas punt returner brand new kid just getting to play, drops the pun on the 15 yard line i think...Rice TD with 30 seconds to go...

that type $hit you cannot cap...it was a tough beat, but a SOLID reminder of why you dont bet college FB early in the season...

also, last night, i really expected BS to beat VT BAD...i dont care what the line was, or if VT was favored...BOISE has 20 or 21 starters coming back...i mean COME ON!! and they won my wager, but SLIMLY...really really scary at the end..

Im sticking to MLB...

[jorge1]

swagger, thanks for the confidence my man...you my dawg!!!

[ayuntalo]

Bro hve you seen the cards tonight?

Remeber I told you I really like yanks rl..but after seeing -170 I suddenly fell out of love..
I still feel the RL will come thru, but way too much odds for rl I think..

Also I plan to put 1 big play along with other wagers..
I like dodgers TT under or no score 1st inning..

But if they get lucky for a HR wager is dead..
So I think Tor is the way to go..not as easy but still a big big chance..

Hamilton injured, better pitcher and momentum for Tor.. What do you think?

[jorge1]

let me look at it...ill hit u up in a sec... i think im in love with my play right now...cupid just speared me...lol

[jorge1]

BTW, real quick, on the surface, The NYY RL i wouldnt play...alot of tension on CC to get his 20th, which is his first EVER...so what if the guy falls apart trying to reach the tip of the mountain? you know? just dont like it...

LAD im staying away from...anything to do with that game i dont like...but we will see as the day progresses...

The toronto ill look at bro...will do is jsut a sec.

[slimpickins]

Sounds good Jorge, I agree you have to hammer a good play when the opportunity comes along! Even if it means risking a large percentage of the $500 set aside. Which is different than total bankroll, this is $500 which we are agreeing we are prepared to lose in the hopes to make some real dough.
Oak, Was and Tor all seem like winners tonight but the juice is high on all.

[ParlayJunkie]

I like your system man. MLB is tough to bet on. I may have missed it, but what do u like today so far?

[ayuntalo]

I like your system man. MLB is tough to bet on. I may have missed it, but what do u like today so far?

He is still doing his homework..
Btw, your in good hands bro

[gilbert91016]

Bol

[jorge1]

PLAY OF THE DAY:

New York Mets @ Washington Nationals

Now, I might just be falling into a trap here, but Im not ignoring this game.

NYM are on the second game in Washington. Last night Michael Pelfrey pitched against Jordan Zimmerman. Pelfrey lasted 3.2 Innings, and Zimmerman lasted 4.0 innings. Washington Clobbered Pelfrey for 6 runs in those lonnnngggg 3 innings, while Zimmerman gave up 3 runs.

The bullpens came out early and Mets used up Valdes, Green, Misch, Igarashi, and Perez...
Washington Bullpen used were: SCOTT OLSEN and then Balester.

Final score last night: 13-3 washington.

Lets look at their Bullpens: Mets bullpen is DEPLETED. Four guys have 1 days rest and the rest were used yesterday, except for TAKAHASHI (4 days rest). Yes, Takahashi is their Closer and is well rested, but still, bullpen is DEAD!

NAts bullP is not as bad, with most of the guys having some rest, but are by no means FULLY rested.

Now looking at their past games in 2010:

Entire year: games 8 runs or OVER = 9-4
Since July: games 8 runs or OVER = 4-1

Mets OVER 8 is 6-2 last 8
WAS OVER 8 is 7-2 last 9

TONIGHT PITCHING: GEE vs MAYA

who are they? EXACTLY! Both are FRESH FRESH out of the box debuting in the MLB tonight. Washington's MAYA is 2-1 OVER his 3 games of 2010 in the minors. New York's Gee is 8-2 OVER in his last 10 games in the minors in 2010.

So tell me, With METS and WASHINGTO ALWAYS hitting each other REALLY well, Washington hitting over 5 runs each game the last 5 games (BATS ARE HOT) and being over 8 seven of their last 9 games, and washington BULLPEN DEPLETED, how on earth is this game total gonna go UNDER 8?

If you wanna explain yourself, go ahead, but Im putting alot on this one...its one of those that you CANNOT miss. I see this game hitting 90%. Seriously, too many overs in this game, and the kids are too young...plus its a middle of the week game..one of those that goes into double digits in 3 innings...

Sorry for seemed compulsive, and this might not bode well with some of you, but this is the moment to do it. I wont be risking so much of the BR in one play in the future but for those of you following the 500 to 5000 here it is:

NYM/WSH OVER 8 -140 2x
NYM/WSH OVER 9 +105 1.2x

so put 280 to win 200 on the OVER 8, and 120 to win 126 on the OVER 9.

I personally am wagering this additional to our little 500 buck BR thing:

NYM/WSH OVER 8 -140 2.83x
NYM/WSH OVER 9 +105 3.80x

So if the total goes over 9 our 5k goal cashes 3.2x. (But I myself will cash 10x, just for tracking purposes.)

[jorge1]

BTW, ppl love just looking for pitchers they know and trying to call those games, but i love looking for pitchers coming OFF the DL or out of the minors and cashing TT OVERS or GAME TOTALS...just if ONE of the PITCHERS was coming out of the minors i would feel good about this play, but BOTH? jajajajaja....come on man...i hate saying free money, so i wont say it, but this is too easy in my opinion..if it doesnt cash ill be EXTREMELY surprised bro...really would be.

I initally like the WASH tt but i HATE HATE HOOKS on TT OVERS....that lil 4.5 will get you bro! really will...plus this will be a joint effort..both teams will have batting practice tonight...

good thing i just cashed out 4000 pesos TODAY before i saw the play and left like 1200 to play with...if not, i wouldve been way too impulsive and put the whole thing on this game....lol. my wife would woop my A$$ man...LOL...yall dont tell her i put 12x on a game guys...

Lets cash this BIT

[ayuntalo]

Goodluck bro!
Hopefully there will be no "adalberto mendez" today if you know what I mean..

[ParlayJunkie]

Sounds good man. Nice detailed explanation. Makes me feel better knowing that ur doing your HW! I'm on it as well. GL. Also, do u post other picks? Or just 1 a day?

[jorge1]

what? who is adalberto mendez?

[jorge1]

I usually try to stick to one and end up with two or three...but today im putting everything i got on this one play...So i wont even horse around with anything else...this $hit ca$hes and its less of a headache than dealing with a 5 or 6 game card.

[jorge1]

BTW, i do my homework, but i strongly suggest some of yall do the same...you should actually READ what i write and look it up...if you dont agree then dont play it...but dont just tail blindly

[Prey]

This 500 project sounds all right. I'm in. Let's hope they pitch shitty ass hell today

[mrginandtonic]

um, how would you play this?? my locals only has over/under 8.5??

[jorge1]

Guys, one thing i wanna make clear is that i seldomly feel disrespected by anyone on here...im not like a lord or a king that just because i have some success the last few weeks on MLB im all high and mighty...i share my plays, have fun with projects and trying new things...write up things EVEN WHEN NO ONE WOULD RESPOND...look EARLIER IN THE THREAD and see how many ppl were coming around? and i STILL WROTE IT UP...i love the sport...love following teams and love betting honestly...and the write ups make me be sharper because they make me follow a pattern and make me catch myself on losers..

ive started a writeup before and midway decided it was a losing play...

if some of you guys decide to do ONE write up a day and stick to that play i can safely say that IF YOU ARE THOUROUGH you would probably hit above 55 to 60%...just ONE A DAY...

and if you did do JUST ONE and stuck to your BEST PLAY i would tail you and make money...

example: GAMBLE...my dawg went like 13-0 i think, then had like 3 or 4 losses but was EXTREMELY profitable in his blogs a couple weeks ago...

BUT FEEL FREE TO DISCUSS GAMES WITH ME AND ALSO POINT OUT WHY YOU DONT FEEL A GAME...it will HELP ME also catch my mistakes..im not a machine...

[ayuntalo]

what? who is adalberto mendez?

Exactly bro..
A nobody..never heard..
But check game 1 of the phillies yesterday..
He pitched 6 inning 1hit no runs before getting feeling a strain while running toward 1st base..
He did that to the phillies who later that night ran over sanchez..

And also, there is DAnny espinOsa which is a nobody before making 2HR 6rbi..

I'll be rooting for you bro!
Maybe a 7-3 nats

[jorge1]

lets look at why i did some on 8 and some on 9:

If i play the original line: OVER 8.5 -120, and i put 400 bucks on it this happens:

SCORE: 9 = WIN +333.33
SCORE: 8 = LOSE -400.00

Since i played what i did:

SCORE: 10 = WIN +326.00
SCORE: 9 = WIN +200.00
SCORE 8 = LOSE -154.00
SCORE 7 = LOSE -400.00

So, sure, to cash full amount its gotta go into double digits, which i am SURE OF...but in case it doesnt and falls a run or two short, i cover from disaster...unless the game is REALLY LOW SCORING and we lose full investment...but by splitting this i make same profit if the game does as expected at almost the same price but have posibility of pushing and not losing as much on a 8 run game...feel me?

But if you only got 8.5, just play OVER 8.5 and ride...what else can you do? ask him/her what he will do OVER 9 for? will he give you some plus money? if he will, then bet the OVER 9 at plus money..that way you push or MAKE MORE...but with 8.5 there is no push so....

[jorge1]

Yeah, it happens..but its TWO NOBODYS...you know what the chances are of a pitchers duel between two FRESH FRESH PITCHERS....AT LEAST ONE OF THEM FOLDs!

lets just imagine that you are a NEW PITCHER in the MLB..not a TOP PROSPECT or anything, just some good guy in the minors and get called...what do you think your chances are you will keep a MLB team under 4 runs?

lets say it gets done maybe 15 or even 20% of the time...well its two of those tonight, so just throwing numbers around, the chances of BOTH keeping BOTH teams in check under 4 runs are:

20% X 20% = .2 * .2 = .04

So i see this, just throwing numbers around, of having a LESS THAN 10% CHANCE of HAPPENING...actually, less than 5%, but lets be conservative and say 10%.

I see one of the teams (which i dont know..im not houdini), hitting 7 to 8 runs ALONE tonight..

[jorge1]

BTW, i know some ppl on the forum are talking about cappers betting with foney money..jsut spittin trash...

here is the ticket

[hawley]

really nice write up on the washington over

good luck