JORGE's 1 Play-A-Day

[decado]

nice explanation, Alki..
i am curious why you don't open your own thread and share your picks with everyone on sbr? u seem to be very good at that.

GL everyone today!

[jorge1]

Jorge,

Here's what I meant about pitching:
First example is last night and the SF/LA game. If I went strictly on pitching, I'd see that Kuroda had been very tough of late and Sanchez was 0-6 against the Dodgers. On the surface that would have a direct effect on putting any good money on SF. But the situation, as I mentioned to you earlier, overruled that in my handicapping the game. So we bet the Giants.

Second example is from Saturday. My bet on Cincinnati over the Cards. If I just looked at pitching, no way would you take a chance on Travis Wood over Adam Wainwright pitching at home. Just no way. Wainwright is a Cy Young candidate and was something like 12-1 at home if I remember correctly. Reds were +170 dogs and as I mentioned to you I liked them a lot. Another case of pitching alone would have overruled my 'situational' handicapping of the game.

Third examxple is about two weeks or so ago when the Phillies were on a slide and couldn't win a game. Your boys in Houston were hot at the time and were at home. JA Happ was pitching against the almighty Doc Halladay. The world was all over Halladay to the tune of -330 on the road! Now Houston was hot, Halladay was supposed to prevent the Phillies from being swept and guess who is pitching for the Stros? JA Happ who was just recently traded from the Phillies. Again, pitching tells you there is only one way to go - Roy H - or you stay off the game. I got lucky with JA Happ at +290.

And lastly, as I mentioned to you in here above somewhere, if the Padres had won yesterday - which they obviously didn't - I would have made a good sized bet against them today with their ace on the hill, Latos at home against the team I bet against last night. Only because of the situation.

So what I'm saying is that you are completely correct that pitching is the MOST important factor in 98% of the games played. You do an excellent job of identifying the match ups and strengths of the opposing pitchers and I follow your work. But there are times - special situations as I call them - when I throw pitching out the window, close my eyes to it and bet the situation. Do I win 100% of those? Of course not. But almost always the plays I'm talking about are medium to large dogs and I wouldn't even have to be right half the time to be way ahead of the situational plays. Though I haven't kept an exact record, I would guestimate somewhere around 65-75% accuracy on the special situations. The problem is they don't come around often enough and I'm sure I miss some just because there's too much going on and I can't find them all. Just so happens there were two this weekend I mentioned.

Anyway, hope you see my point.

In the meantime, who you got today????

What up buddy? great explanation. You raise some valid points, but i love discussions..so lets continue.

I see your angle and your explanation for it, however, I must clarify my response. What i said is that "you always gotta care about the pitching." that being said lets think of what square betting is, or means:

Square betting for the most part IN MY OPINION, are bets that are by popularity overly priced. Example, NYY. They are usually over priced because all the squares of the world bet on them thinking they win 100% of their games at home, or that they always cover the runline when they win.

But another square bet, besides NYY, is on pitchers. Big name pitchers draw these lines to INFLATE. Halladay, Wainwright, CC Sabathia, Etc. are examples. Just because they hit the mound and ppl recognize their name the line inflates tremendously, making them a SQUARE BET...its almost like ppl throw situations out the window and JUST BET THE PITCHER.

Now i CERTAINLY DO NOT mean that at all. I dont mean to just bet on pitching or ONLY RIDE ON PITCHING. no bud, what i mean is that you ALWAYS gotta account for pitching. Why? easy: you always got an angle on the pitching, and you gotta play it. If you have no angle on the pitching, then its a NO PLAY.

You said your "situational plays" cash 65-75% of the time, just pulling out a number...i understand, however, examine WHICH times the plays dont cash..thats what ive started doing.

You wanna know why ive been hot lately? because during the week off i had two weeks ago i spent hours and hours going through all my old plays and figuring out what went wrong. SItuational plays are GREAT, but then you gotta figure an angle on the pitching SITUATION as well.

For example, i have an angle on EVERY SINGLE GAME you mentioned as far as pitching is concerned, and hoenstly, all the plays you mentioned i really do remember thinking these things the day of the plays:

Lets start with last night. Now, Not taking away the confidence i put in your play, because if you didnt point it out i wouldnt have even touched it and taken my winnings and been happy without a play, but ill tell you what SEALED THE DEAL for me last night in LAD game. It was the fact that you were right, LAD were cooked, had a rough game the night before (I LIKE THE SITUATION) AND THE PITCHING BACKED THE PLAY UP...Kuroda is tough, but i looked back at DE LA ROSA, and thought "okay, two tough pitchers, definetely an under game. A pitchers duel. But which teams bats a run in? I figured some math into it and really felt COLORADO had more than a 50% chance of scoring on Kuroda over LAD scoring on De La Rosa. Why? Because of the situation, you are right. But its not like i threw the pitching out the window...not at all...i actually noticed That De la rosa is coming on a 3 game winning streak, under in every game, allowing only 2 runs per game almost his last 10 games..i mean, the guy means business..so what better pitcher to back me up on the situational play? Plus, LAD bullpen was FRIED! so that sealed the deal for me. see my point?


Second example, Cinci with travis wood vs STL Wainwright....ofcourse STL is cold and on a losing fest, but its scary against Wainwright...but Wood is no joke either. He might not be the CY Young Candidate, but guy was 6-1 last 7 coming into the game. Cinci bullpen was DEEP on saturday, well rested vs the STL depleted BUllp...so pitching angle was there...it wasnt necesarily that Cincy would OUTPITCH STL, but the angle is that There is a situational play, PLUS the pitching is there to back ya!

And this one i cashed! HOUSTON STROS with J HAPP...why wouldnt you take this? perfect situation, sure Halladay is amazing, but J HAPP KNEW PHILLIES>..i remember coming into the game thinking HOUSTON is gonna take this..because it was easy, you are on a slump and you come to face a pitcher who knows you? so it was situational, but the PITCHING ANGLE was HUGGGGEEEE on this one...

So on every game there is an angle on the pitching, just not necesarily that the BIG NAME wins...you knwo what i mean?

for example, i always look for games with guys coming out of the DL, or coming from the minors, etc. COuple that with a nasty situation and a weak bullpen and you got yourself a PLAY...

So hope this explains further how i look at games, if it helps. YOU ALWAYS GOTTA CARE ABOUT THE PITCHING...but this does not mean you always gotta bet with the better pitcher...you just gotta look at it this way:

say you have calculated a 75% chance you win in a certain situation. If you calculate the pitching to be 40% its STILL GOOD...because your 75% is what will make this play fall into the 40% winning category, know what i mean?

Great discussion, and great play last night bud!

[jackmyhoggoff]

JORGE1 easy to tail that a$$

[jorge1]

Without a doubt, im not even looking any further. I have found my game for the day...even if it loses, i gotta take it...I just must...you cant ignore the cold hard facts and trends coming into this game:

HOUSTON TT U6.5

Are you kidding me? I dont care if the wind is 120MPH into the outfield and the are batting with aluminum bats, this play i gotta take.

YOu wanna know how many times HOUSTON has scored more than 6 runs in their last 25 games?

1

Even last night against sorry a$$ lopez they couldnt score more than their meisley 3 runs.

Cubs have no bullpen, which sucks coming into this game this way, but are the Astros homerunners? Nope...so i just will not believe this crap of a total being inflated to 13 just because its really windy and there is a rookie on the mound.

I feel this total goes under, and my TT cashes, but i only wanna play one...plus i would hate for the CUbs to start batting and do one of their little double digit scoring stunts which they pull out of nowhere once in a while.

HOUSTON TT U6.5

Funny thing is i just noticed my wager limit got cut to 450 bucks? JAJAJAJAJAJAJA i dont mean to brag AT ALL, but i feel succesfull..lol...never realy thought a book would cut me!

I was gonna bet 10 units on this game..actually 9.99x, but i guess i gotta settle for half and resolve my little limit problem now...jajaja

cool!

[Alki]

Good response Jorge. The problem for me is that I don't have enough time to do everything as it is, so I can't 'cap' all the games every day. To be honest, I am relying on you a lot over the past couple of weeks and you've been great. I can throw thing out but not regularly like you do. It takes time and I am so busy with every day things that I don't have the time.

I can tell you one thing though, I try to be a very thorough person in whatever I do. If I can't be, I feel like I may have left something important out or missed something. One of the qualities I've identified about you is you are thorough and that makes me feel very comfortable with your plays.

Sure, I can say I liked the Reds Saturday or SF last night, but I don't have the time to sit down and write everything up like you do to make my case. It takes time, which is something I don't have enough of.

That's why I appreciate all of your hard work.....and you share it with us........and you don't have to do that at all. So thanks again.

[jorge1]

Okay, 5dimes actually juiced the line after i wagered it and now i can make an additional play. Here is what the play is:

HOUSTON TT U6.5 -115 5.0x

HOUSTON TT U6.5 -120 5.0x

So a total of 10 units on this....imma get my money back from houston on this one..fack that bruh...

BTW, the hook is GOLD on this one, if you catch it at six, i wouldnt play it any more

[Alki]

Must be the 18 runs the Mets put up on them yesterday and the Cubs pen is frazzled, along with the wind factors.

I'm down with ya. GL

[jorge1]

ALki no problem bro...

Well reason why i have so much time is because im unemployed right now. So as i search the job market I read and cap the games. However, i am just like you...when im busy with work i obviously have very little time...

my suggestion is, IF YOU DO THIS TO PROFIT (because if you do it jsut for fun, then forget what im about to say...jsut have fun and bet) but if you do this as an investment, devote maybe 1 hour a day.

In that hour browse over the card...spot games that stick out...pick 2 or 3...then read a little on them on COVERS (nice summary just all on one page) and make a decision on one...that will cut down drastically on the time you spend on games...

ppl here cap like 5 or 6 games a day and i have NO CLUE how they do it man..its too much. Yesterday i just happened to cap 4 games and it was much...then caught up to your game as well..

regardless, thanks for the compliments...And the faith...i havent always been succesfull..and honestly, this recent run has been one of my best...but ive learned alot and you know what makes me confident? that i am learning how to play less plays...Ive only seen the experienced guys do that (for the most part) and it makes me feel like im getting somewhere with all of this...i found my nitch, per se.

Well, you like the play? hoenstly its the first game i saw all day and right away i love it man..really do.

think of this, having HOUSTON scoring around 2 - 3 runs per game the last 25 games, would you be comfortable on betting that houston gets to 7 runs today?

I wouldnt..thats why i love this bet...plus, i told you, i was gonna snipe this one...wait till the right moment...and if this isnt the right moment with this super high line, i dont knwo what it...i expect them to score 4 runs, 5 max...

any plays today to discuss?

[jorge1]

yeah, but you know who didnt play yesterday right? out of the Cub bullpen? MARMOL!

So marmol is in today late in the game to stop the bleeding, and in case you dont know about him, he is 7-1 his last 8 out on the mound...incredible pitching from this dominicn stallion..if you get a chance to watch the game, youll see what i mean.

[jorge1]

lets look back at CUBS stats...after allowing DD on the board, lets see how they do very next day?

7 HOU (UH OH!)
6 COL
4 MIL
4 SF
1 WAS


all these games are from the second half of the season...yes, its scary that HOU batted 7 in earlier this season...BUT, Houston in July was RED HOT...They went on a run where they batted against EVERYONE 5 runs or more every game...

so im not buying it...i really am not...if the line was 5.5 i wouldnt touch it because the circumstances call for HOU lighting up..but 7 runs for a struggling team who cannot hit? no matter the circumstance, i like it...

[jorge1]

Just in case things get out of hand in CHC:

HOU -2.5 +180 1.6x

who knows, maybe they go 6-1 and i cash both...

[Alki]

Carlos Marmol can be a monster when he's on. I've seen him pitch enough to know. Good to know he's in the forecast.

Yes, I do this as an investment not for fun. I need to learn better discipline and bet fewer games. Hard to do with baseball being an everyday thing. I bet more baseball games during a week than I would football over a weekend. Probably because there is more data to go over and I like to find teams on streaks, either winning or losing. Similar to your Hous TT streak. I mean last night they score 3 in the first and can't produce anything more than that? Really?

I like Rodriguez pitching for Hou too. Prefer him at home but he's been solid for the Stros. Let's get this. Thanks.

[jorge1]

yeah...i figure IF they do climb over 6 then ill get a third of investment on the RRL because they will whip that CUB a$$...but I honestly dont feel they just grow into monster ball over there just because..

last night i didnt bet the TT U because i said, THIS PITCHER SUCS...lopez or whatever the guy pitchin for ARIZONA was...then i look and they couldnt score ALL GAME!!!
so hoenstly, whoever is pitching, i dont care man...i like the under 6.5 BIG...just do...if i lose, then i man up and take it..but if i win, i GRIN!

[jorge1]

BTW, Alki, try this...try this as a discipline..ONLY PLAY ONE GAME AT A TIME>..maybe not one daily..but one per time frame...meaning dont play games that are simultaneous...if there are 5 1 PM games, then pick the BEST ONE.

then later on REFOCUS and pick the BEST 4 pm game having in mind how you did earlier for accounting purposes..

it helps alot..jsut does..you can gauge how much to wager and how you are feelin as the day progresses...but when its a funky day and you start 0-2 then for the late games you just call it a day and get some rest...i see ppl cap 7 games over night, then its one of those twilight zone nights where everything goes backwards and they lose nearly every game..

rather stop the bleeding, you know what i mean?

so, any games for today? lets discuss bro

[jorge1]

Oh and another thing, although this kid coleman is a rookie, i see great promise in him...i mean, the guy gave up 3 to SD, 1 to wash, and 4 to cincy...but again, cincy i dont count in..they are heavy hitters so no fun comparing cincy batting vs HOU batting..no way..

i think he can handle this one fellas. i just need a good 7 innings from his young arm though

[Alki]

Jorge,

Take a look at the 1st inning in the Cubs game. Big odds +170 for a no score. Everything jacked up with the wind. I mean it's -200 for a Yes score in 1st. Always liked Wandy and you sound like you are high on Coleman.

Just jumped out at me not that I'm high on it or anything. Any thoughts?

[jorge1]

Hou no score 1 inning +150 2.5x

hou cubs under 34.5 HRE +105 2.5x

[jorge1]

Almost game time Cannot wait

[ayuntalo]

cannot find "no score on first inning hous/cub"
i guess they remove it because its getting exploited LOL

[jspectyper]

Good luck today jorge. I gotta get the no score in 1st earlier duh. I usually put bets in close to game time but if your too close to game time that take that prop off at 5dimes.

[jspectyper]

cannot find "no score on first inning hous/cub"
i guess they remove it because its getting exploited LOL

I would probably say within 5-8 minutes of the start time they take that prop off.

[ayuntalo]

thanks for clarifying that jspectyper..
i guess ill miss on a winner again..
really like your chances jorge. BOL

[jspectyper]

thanks for clarifying that jspectyper..
i guess ill miss on a winner again..
really like your chances jorge. BOL

No problem dude. I'm just pissed I missed the no score in first at + odds

[jorge1]

Cash that first inning.

Scary with cubs on third but cashed it for 2.5x at great odds

[ayuntalo]

cash that b!tch..
i always seem to miss out on these...
GLAD you guys cashed though, that was tight

[jorge1]

Thanks for pointing that out alki

we are getting somewhere here fellas

great to see the discussions and contributions

alki thanks again

[jorge1]

Guys it does suck to miss plays but never regret t because sometimes no action I better than losing action and sometimes u miss out on losers which is a good thing

but this one won

let's keep hou scoreless guys

[Alki]

That's what I'm talkin about. Glad you liked it with me, and thank you Wandy Rod.

[jorge1]

Is Houston gonna loserha team total for us in ONE INNING? WTF

[Alki]

Well, at least we got thru the 1st scoreless. Now we need Wandy to shut the Cubs out.

[jorge1]

Thank u for ending that nightmare of an inning.

I'm thinking it's over with the double play and this kid allows two men on base and gets behind on the count about to load up the bases

tough game bro. Tough game.

Hopefully bull pen can help some with Houston

[Alki]

nice explanation, Alki..
i am curious why you don't open your own thread and share your picks with everyone on sbr? u seem to be very good at that.

GL everyone today!

decado:

I would open my own thread but I cannot be consistent with posting due to my busy schedule. Today I am in low gear and have been able to reply back and forth with Jorge. Tomorrow that changes to high gear.

If I had my own thread I would feel a responsibility to post regularly. If I couldn't get to post, I would feel as though I was not being fair. So I am happy to have Jorge's thread to contribute to. At least he can critique my possible plays and we can use his information and data to help us along. He's done a great job the past few weeks. I am hoping he continues to post for us.

When I am able, I will contribute my thoughts to this thread as long as Jorge is ok with it.

Good Luck to us.

[jorge1]

Alki ofcourse I okay with your discussion and contribution. Please I welcome every body comments and plays. In fact I'm always askin

every play I hear of I review and check to see if I agree and I like your style alki. You can cap and have common sense

I took a nap and woke up to see this. Eight inni g and still sitting at four runs

[jorge1]

Hey alki btw today I was thinking of your strategy. Fading team after their first win in a long time and was really close to taking st Louis today. Look at em... Definetely like the strategy

btw did anyone notice we r going to the ninth and Houston still at FOUR

[Alki]

We need the Cubbies to pick up a run so they can bring our friend Marmol in to freeze this Astro's total at 4. Then we can move on.