Accuscore MLB Pick System

CHAZ · 08-26-10, 03:51 PM

Originally posted by ayuntalo

hmmm seems interesting..
how do you pick the plays out of that chart??

We take the odds/moneyline that Vegas uses and convert it to a percentage of each team of winning that game. Then we take the simulation percentage Accuscore has and figure the difference between the two. If the difference of both sides comes out to a positive difference then it is deemed as having side value. Some teams have more side values then others and some have negative side value. Everyone has filters they use to pick there own plays.

ayuntalo · 08-26-10, 04:02 PM

are these what you call filters??
sim win >60% on faves or >50% on dogs
diff >7%
and odds >1.62
sorry i just saw the thread now..

CatPulp · 08-26-10, 09:37 PM

Originally posted by ayuntalo

are these what you call filters?? sim win >60% on faves or >50% on dogs diff >7% and odds >1.62 sorry i just saw the thread now..

How else would you describe them? This is the criteria we've been using to choose the games to bet on.

ayuntalo · 08-26-10, 09:43 PM

Ok thanks catpulp..
Gl on the Texas play, tried it today and looking forward for
tomorrow

bdevil · 08-27-10, 04:08 AM

26 Aug 2010

OAK - LOST
TEX - LOST

Today we had 0 - 2, down 2 units.
Total balance : 16 - 7, + 7.02 units, 69 %.

Skware · 08-27-10, 05:07 AM

Oak - loss
tex - loss
tor - loss

2 - 4

bdevil · 08-27-10, 07:01 AM

The chart for today looks like this. MIL, COL, TOR, CLE and TEX. Lots of action.

Sfritts8 · 08-27-10, 07:16 AM

You will lose a lot of money following accuscore, they are not up to date on injuries and have no filters for up to date info. For instance, last night, the stats dictated a play on the Jays but Romero had strep throat the whole week before and was nowhere near full strength, also hard to bet on Lee last night when he was laying such juice against a first place team and he had been recently struggling, his yearly stats were not effected but his present value clearly is. You also are not using their numbers correctly, the separation between Vegas win percentage, which is actually just Pinny's lines, and the Accuscore sim win % should not determine your plays due to the variance in cent separation that delineates a certain amount of value. Taking the Accuscore numbers at face value you would be betting almost all dog Runlines and outrights dogs which is not a bad way to bet baseball unlike the plays you are releasing.

bdevil · 08-27-10, 07:56 AM

As far as i know, Accuscore is dealing only with numbers, so a morale / physicial status on a certain player or team isn't influencing the probability of their prediction. So that's why you have to use all the knowledge you have on the game to find the best choice. As i'm not into baseball much, i take this numbers as pure stats and nothing more. I don't know if it's right just to bet after seeing this chart, maybe it's nonsense to some users, maybe it helps some other users, but at least you can make a difference on the values. Accuscore still filter lacks, but the stats they use have probably one of the biggest database in the world regarding MLB. Any addition to our tryout is welcome, if you have anything to add, just feel free to do it.

CHAZ · 08-27-10, 09:39 AM

Originally posted by Sfritts8

You will lose a lot of money following accuscore, they are not up to date on injuries and have no filters for up to date info. For instance, last night, the stats dictated a play on the Jays but Romero had strep throat the whole week before and was nowhere near full strength, also hard to bet on Lee last night when he was laying such juice against a first place team and he had been recently struggling, his yearly stats were not effected but his present value clearly is. You also are not using their numbers correctly, the separation between Vegas win percentage, which is actually just Pinny's lines, and the Accuscore sim win % should not determine your plays due to the variance in cent separation that delineates a certain amount of value. Taking the Accuscore numbers at face value you would be betting almost all dog Runlines and outrights dogs which is not a bad way to bet baseball unlike the plays you are releasing.

No system is gonna be able to filter in everything, people have to make up there own mind to follow a play or not.

This is just a tool.

TxBulldog · 08-27-10, 09:59 AM

Bdevil,

You may want to look at your chart for today. There is a problem with your "vegas odds" for Houston. I think it will even make the Astros a play in your system.

I am considering subscribing to Accuscor for the database access. Especially to add to my arsenal for CBB. Anyone have any input for me regarding that? I want frank input from actual subscribers. Please PM me with details of your experience.

Bulldawg

will2survive · 08-27-10, 10:03 AM

Accuscore is aweome--I like it

CatPulp · 08-27-10, 10:25 AM

Not only is any system not infallible, but we all know the math behind determining when a play has value or not. My odds (actually my book) usually suck compared to the posted lines. It is my responsibility to look at what is posted here by bdevil and then run the same calculations based on the lines I can get. I can't always make the same plays because my value my drop and therefor it is not a play for me. If, however, the books are off against the sim win rate, then there is value in that play, and play it I will. This is just cold hard stats that we're using and if a statistical variance gives us an edge in value, then we're going to let that edge play itself out - hopefully to the benefit of our bankrolls.

CatPulp · 08-27-10, 10:29 AM

Originally posted by TxBulldog

Bdevil, You may want to look at your chart for today. There is a problem with your "vegas odds" for Houston. I think it will even make the Astros a play in your system.

We're not playing dogs, so the Astros are not considered.

TxBulldog · 08-27-10, 11:08 AM

Cat,

According to the quote YOU made in post #388, you are. I apparently missed where the empty filters were dropped. I would only suggest that things be done consistently when tracking a system. I have been working a variant of this since before this thread and small dogs are winning at nearly the same %, but obviously pay better ;-)

In my system. Dogs are 2 unit plays!

Cranium · 08-27-10, 11:19 AM

TxBulldong,
What does your system entail when using Accuscore? Care to share? Thanks

bdevil · 08-27-10, 11:29 AM

Thanks, Bulldog i updated the chart, was a small problem there HOU - NY. At this point i'm only including favorite plays and counting them. I guess in the end of the season we can compare the stats dogs vs favs. I'm just counting them in order to put up myself with the system.

Skware · 08-27-10, 11:48 AM

Thanks bdevil & CHAZ

TxBulldog · 08-27-10, 12:05 PM

The Accuscore part of my method is similiar except I convert the AS sim to a ML and compare from there. I also have some filters (I rarely lay over -150 and NEVER over -160. I then evaluate some other factors. Currently, I am hitting 61% at an avg price of -105. About 60% of your side plays match mine.....however I LOVE dog plays.

CatPulp · 08-27-10, 01:47 PM

Originally posted by TxBulldog

Cat, According to the quote YOU made in post #388, you are. I apparently missed where the empty filters were dropped. I would only suggest that things be done consistently when tracking a system. I have been working a variant of this since before this thread and small dogs are winning at nearly the same %, but obviously pay better ;-) In my system. Dogs are 2 unit plays!

Actually, no. Ayuntalo made the comment about dogs >50%, it wasn't me. I was only quoting him from post 387. As a matter of fact, I've stated several times that we're not tracking or playing dogs.

Mully85 · 08-27-10, 02:08 PM

Originally posted by CHAZ

No system is gonna be able to filter in everything, people have to make up there own mind to follow a play or not. This is just a tool.

I could not agree more CHAZ...that's why we are all here. We gather information from each other to make better informed decisions when we play!

Fishscale · 08-28-10, 01:16 AM

Gj today.

bdevil · 08-28-10, 01:49 AM

27 Aug 2010

MIL - WIN
COL - LOST
TOR - WIN
CLE - WIN
TEX - WIN

Today we had 4 - 1, up 2.55 units.
Total balance : 20 - 8, + 9.57 units, 71 %.

Fishscale · 08-28-10, 01:57 AM

You got a chart for tomorrow?

bdevil · 08-28-10, 02:00 AM

Yeah, will be up in a couple of hours.

Skware · 08-28-10, 03:17 AM

mil - win
col - loss
tor - win
cle - win
tex - win

6 - 5, 55%

bdevil · 08-28-10, 04:44 AM

The chart for today, only 1 play, TOR. Straight at the edge is MIL but it's a no play since the difference is 6 % and the odds will be higher than -160 till the start of the match.

BallerBoy · 08-28-10, 04:54 AM

Why not the Padres ML play?

JMobile · 08-28-10, 06:19 AM

Originally posted by BallerBoy

Why not the Padres ML play?

I would be expecting the Padres in there this time.

Gameboy · 08-28-10, 09:03 AM

Originally posted by JMobile

I would be expecting the Padres in there this time.

the difference has to be at least 7

Mully85 · 08-28-10, 10:32 AM

Originally posted by bdevil

27 Aug 2010 MIL - WIN COL - LOST TOR - WIN CLE - WIN TEX - WIN Today we had 4 - 1, up 2.55 units. Total balance : 20 - 8, + 9.57 units, 71 %.

Nice job as always bdev!!!

mrginandtonic · 08-28-10, 10:40 AM

Originally posted by bdevil

The chart for today, only 1 play, TOR. Straight at the edge is MIL but it's a no play since the difference is 6 % and the odds will be higher than -160 till the start of the match.

would you still make it a play since the line jump from -150 to -200 due to pitching changes??

Mully85 · 08-28-10, 10:56 AM

I wouldn't, it's over our -160 filter...

bdevil · 08-28-10, 12:17 PM

True. If the odds or pitchers change, and the changes do not fit our filters, than the plays are NO PLAY. So for tonight no play.

mrginandtonic · 08-28-10, 12:41 PM

OK thanks. no play for the fav today. so may be small wager on the dog plays: CWS AND OAK. GL EVERYONE!