BeatingBaseball - 2nd Half Thread

[BeatingBaseball]

Thursday Results

Two losing days in a row as only 2 of 6 games on the day were ML winners.

We won the CINC FF, the HOU ML and swept the 3 plays on SF (incl a big +1.75 AltRL) - but the rest of the card all went down as the Reds blew a 5 run lead in Colorado, the Braves/Jurrjenns blew an early 3 run lead at home, DET took the WSOX and TOR, despite hitting the only 2 HRs in the game, fell to TEX 4-2.

Bottom line we drop 6.69 Units on the day – now back to -10.37 Units 2nd half.

We turn the page and move on.

[BeatingBaseball]

Hey Pair

Just checking in. Will be in Vegas on October 14-17, my buddies 50th birthday. Hope all is well.

Good to hear from you 5's. I look in on your site regularly and see you've been hanging in. Saw you had HOU FF yesterday - I liked them as well. I managed to split that one profitably with equivalent dog money FF/Game but it could have gone either way.

It's been a tough 2nd half but by no means over yet. I like our chances to both end the season in the green - you certainly have a big edge with those future props solidly in the money.

Stay in touch and I will see you out West here where the Stars and Stripes and the Eagle flies. You'll be here just a couple of weeks before we retire Harry Reid - hopefully we can say goodbye to him

[BeatingBaseball]

9-10-10 Friday Plays



CINC – RL
ATL – FF, ML
HOU – ML
COLO – RL
SF – FF, ML, AltRL(-1 ½) for ½
DET – FF ½, ML, RL
NYY – FF, ML
WSOX – FF ½, ML, RL ½

[jbofcb]

BB
Here's a stat for you. Rox are 10-0 in their last 10 games vs a 1st place team (swept 3 Atl/ 3 SD/ 4 Cinn). That, combined with their home #'s makes this Monday/Tue/Wed 3 game series vs SD worth a look. Looks like Francis is starting Monday's game in place of Cook.
JB

[BeatingBaseball]

IbaldoCarGoTuloRox

BB
Here's a stat for you. Rox are 10-0 in their last 10 games vs a 1st place team (swept 3 Atl/ 3 SD/ 4 Cinn). That, combined with their home #'s makes this Monday/Tue/Wed 3 game series vs SD worth a look. Looks like Francis is starting Monday's game in place of Cook.
JB

Thank you JB. Good info. You are officially my Go-To Guy on the Rockies.

As you see I played 'em tonight vs AZ RL. Let's have an easy one here for 8 straight overall.

Still a long way to go in the season - there may well be post-season baseball at Coors yet.

[BeatingBaseball]

Friday Results

A lot of close games/extra inning decisions on Friday and we come up 1 game short of profitability.

Our 6 ML plays split 3-3 - but 2 of the ML W’s (SF, WSOX) only pushed the FFs and then failed to cover RLs.

The two pure RL plays also split, COLO covering easily but CINC winning by only by 1 run.

With plays on 8 games - only 3 were net losers (CINC, HOU, DETR) - but the killer game was DET - the only game on which we lost more than 1 play – DET was a wipeout that lost 6.26 Units at the hands of you know who.

Bottom line we drop 6.11 Units on the day.

[BeatingBaseball]

9-11-10 Saturday - Early Plays

God Bless America - especially on this day.

ATL - FF 1/2, ML, RL 1/2
SF - FF, ML, RL 1/2

[BeatingBaseball]

Saturday - Night Plays

MILW (Wolf) – FF only
CINC – RL only
COLO – RL only
DET – FF ½, ML, RL
WSOX - FF ½, ML, RL ½,
MINN – ML, RL ½

[BeatingBaseball]

Saturday Results

We had another losing day on Saturday with the Orioles right in the middle of our tribulation once again.

The 2 early plays split positive as ATL won all plays and SF at least cashed the RL in a 1-0 loss.

Our 2 pure RL plays (CINC, COLO) went down as both won the game but by only 1 run.

MINN was net positive as they won the ML but again failed to cover the ½ play RL.

The disasters of the day were WSOX and DET as we pushed the DET FF and lost all other plays on both games.

Bottom line on the day a loss -13.35 Units.

It’s been a tough 2nd half (have I said that before?). And it doesn’t seem to be getting any easier.

If there's anyone out there fading us - I completely understand - but be careful - this won't last forever.

[BeatingBaseball]

9-12-10 Sunday Plays

FLA – FF, ML
COLO – RL
SF – FF, ML, AltRL ½
DET – RL
MINN – ML, RL
TEX (Lee) – FF
LAA (Haren) – FF
OAKL (Braden) - FF

[BeatingBaseball]

Sunday Results

You might say we had a good day on Sunday

We had what is known in the trade as a “clean sheet”:

FLA – FF, ML (WIN, WIN)
COLO – RL (WIN)
SF – FF, ML, AltRL ½ (WIN, WIN, WIN)
DET – RL (WIN)
MINN – ML, RL (WIN, WIN)
TEX (Lee) – FF (PUSH)
LAA (Haren) – FF (WIN)
OAKL (Braden) - FF (WIN)

12 plays across 8 games go 11-0-1

We pick up 25.64 Units on the day.

Never out of the fight - we're right back in it.

[BeatingBaseball]

9-13-10 Monday Plays

CINC (Arroyo) – FF ½, ML, RL ½
TOR – FF, ML, AltRL ½
FLA – FF, ML
TB (Price) – FF ½, ML
ATL (Lowe) – FF, ML, RL ½
BOS (Lester) – ML, RL, RL ½
HOU (Myers) – FF, ML
STL - RL
COLO – ML, RL ½


Notes

CINC
Reds have won 16/L19 vs AZ (since 2007)
AZ lost 7/L8 overall and not scoring
Reds glad to be home after tough trip and a 9th inn loss in Pitt – Cordero again blew save
Although Enright a pretty good rookie RHer and COLO rocked Arroyo in his last – 3 bombs - I expect Arroyo/Reds to bounce back here.


TOR
O’s 0-12 vs Jays this year with a total running score of 70-23.
Going w/ Jays even though the 12-0 was not Showalter O’s.
Going w/ Jays even though they have won 0 of Rzepczynski’s L5 overall.
All about the price here at +1.28 making .440 a profitable win %.

FLA
Fish on 3 in a row
At +1.20 have to take Marlins at home right now vs any Phil pitcher not named Roy.
Blanton has had problems in 1st innings - Stanton is seein' it and smokin’ it.

TB
Game of the day in AL
The 2 best records in MLB - 2 highest scoring teams in AL.
Could well be the ALCS game 1 matchup reight here – Price vs C.C. Lot going on here
The two ace LHers – pscholog ical edge down the stretch – teams will meet 7 times next 11 days.
CC going for #20 – has never done it. Could settle Cy Young here.
Price off 2 W’s overall has beaten Yanks L2 at home.
300 lb CC has 209 innings and off a bad one vs Orioles - fatigue factor? - Price 178 inn.
Yanks have lost 6/L7 overall - just swept in Texas – have not lost 4 str all year.
Yanks not hitting or scoring – Swish, ARod, Gardner out Sun. vs Texas
TB 9-2 L11 at home


Yanks 9 over .500 vs LHers. TB 17 over.

ATL
Home sweet home - ATL has not lost a home series in L20.
WASH has lost last 5 overall – looking very sluggish vs FLA.
Derek Lowe has struggled vs WASH but coming off a good outing in last.
WASH has rookie on mound in only his 2nd big league start - he lost to Mets in debut.

BOS
M’s lost L4 overall - shutout yesterday by Angels (13th time this year M's shut out)
Worst offense in baseball
Beltre facing old teammates and Lester pitching in home state of Washington.
Lester Ws in 5/L6 starts.

HOU
Brett Myers L6 starts as good as any pitcher in MLB.
Amazingly has gone at least 6 inn in ALL of his 29 starts.
Hunter Pence in the 3 spot seeing it and hitting it.

STL
Cards 6 out of Divisiolon lead - this is about it - crunch time.
It was 2 Ls to Cubs that started Cards' 9-18 slide.
Garcia off the worst start of his career (MILW put up 7 and he didn’t see 5th)
Cubs playing much better - have won 11/18
Samardzija up from AAA for 1st start of season
Albert crushing it - always kills it vs Cubs

COLO
10 in a row overall going for 11. 7 str at home and 19/L23 at Coors
W here would tie WSOX and TEX for longest streak of yr - also tie COLO all time record.
SD L 3 str – 5/L7 road – 13/L17 overall
Colo 11-4 vs SD this year
Tulo 17 RBI L 11 games
Francis on a tight pitch count
Luebke 3rd career start – shut out Dodgers over 6 inn in last but Rocks beat him in his 1st as both Giambi and
Tulo took him yard.

[BeatingBaseball]

Monday Results

A profitable Monday with action on 9 games involving 21 plays.

CINC, ATL, BOS swept all plays. TB, HOU were ML winners but only pushed the FFs.

Plays went 11-8-2 as the losers were FLA, TOR, STL, COLO.

Bottom line on the night was a gain of +4.02 Units.

Going into the night we were -4.19 Units 2nd half after 837 plays. Today, incredibly - after 856 decisions (+pushes) 2nd half - we find ourselves about as dead even as you can get (-.17 Unit). Hard to believe but true.

Again last night, our biggest loss was to the Orioles (5 Units) - this time 4-3 in 11 innings - but at least they were favorites for a change - we didn't have to lay a price so they didn't cost us as much as they have most nights over the last 2 months. They've had an amazing run. I don't think I've ever before let one club beat me over such a sustained period in baseball. My bad. Had I just stayed away from them we would have had one hell of a 2nd half. I've yet to go back and add up what they have cost us - but it's a lot. It's so much that it's really incredible that we have managed to be where we are - with a shot to end in the green in spite of it.

Monday detail:

CINC (Arroyo) – FF ½, ML, RL ½
W, W, W
+2, +2, +1.20

TOR – FF, ML, AltRL ½
L, L, L
-2, -2, -1

FLA – FF, ML
L, L
-2, -2

TB (Price) – FF ½, ML
PUSH, W
0, +2

ATL (Lowe) – FF, ML, RL ½
W, W, W
+2, +2, +1

BOS (Lester) – ML, RL, RL ½
W, W, W
+2, +2, +1

HOU (Myers) – FF, ML
PUSH, W
0, +2

STL – RL
L
-2.16

COLO - ML, RL ½
L, L
-3.02, -1.0

[BeatingBaseball]

8-14-10 Tuesday Plays

ATL – FF ½, ML, RL ½
CINC – ML, RL ½
HOU – ML
COLO – FF ½, ML, RL ½
SF – ML, RL
LAA (Kazmir) – FF only
TOR – FF, ML, AltRL
DET – FF, ML
BOS – FF ½, ML, RL

[GTeater]

Great day for the bookies .

Best of luck B, when I return I'll shoot you a PM.

-G

[BeatingBaseball]

Tuesday Results

Tuesday was a dark day - another setback in our attempt to break the 2nd half surface.

Only 2 (HOU, BOS) of 9 games were profitable - we lose 15 of 20 plays.

We started the day with ATL and CINC going down to NATS and AZ respectively - then the O's get us again - then we cap off the night with a 1-0 loss by the Giants who manage to lose despite allowing the Dodgers only a single hit over 9 innings.

Bottom line -23.54 Units for the day overall.

It's turn the page and back to work once again.

[BeatingBaseball]

GTeater

Thanks for all the points you sent over, G.

I know from your personal message that you have some priorities right now that exceed betting baseball.

Best of Luck to you.


A man who will not be defeated - can not be defeated.

[BeatingBaseball]

9-15-10 Wednesday - Early Plays

hou – ml
colo – ml, rl ½
bos - ff ½, ml, rl

[BeatingBaseball]

Wednesday - Night Plays

laa – ff ½, ml
tor – ff, ml, rl
tb – rl ½, ml
cinc – ml, rl ½
det- ff, ml
oakl – ml
stl – ff ½, ml, rl
sf - ff ½, ml, rl ½

[BeatingBaseball]

Wednesday Results

Our action on 11 games Wednesday was split:

6 games were profitable (COLO, BOS, LAA, TB, CINC, SF)

5 games lost money (HOU, TOR, DET, OAKL, STL)

Overall plays went 10-11-3,

Profitability came down to the last half inning of the night - when Andre Ethier’s 2-out HR in the 9th busted the RL play on SF - and we drop 1.22 Units bottom line.

[BeatingBaseball]

9-16-10 Thursday - Early Play

Cinc - ml, rl 1/2

[BeatingBaseball]

Thursday Night Plays

clev – ff ½, ml
stl – ff ½, ml
sf – ff ½, ml, rl ½,

[BeatingBaseball]

Thursday Results

Going 7-0 in plays across our 3 night games made for a solidly profitable Thursday.

We started the day in the hole when chalky CINC - absent Scott Rolen and Brandon Phillips who were rested by Dusty B. in the day game following a night game - was shut down at home by a guy who was 0-7 with a 5.63 ERA over his previous 11 starts.

Needing to nail the night picks - we did - CLEV, STL and SF sweeping all plays.

Bottom line on the day is 4 games go 3-1, plays go 7-2, +6.24 Units overall.

cinc – ml, rl ½
L, L
-3.46, -1.0

clev – ff ½, ml
W, W
+1, +2

stl – ff ½, ml
W. W
+1, +2

sf – ff ½, ml, rl ½,
W, W, W
+ 1, +2, +1.70

[BeatingBaseball]

9-17-10 Friday - Early Plays

PHIL – RL only
FLA – ML
NYY – RL only
LAA (Haren) – FF only
TOR – FF ½, ML ½

[BeatingBaseball]

Friday - Added Plays

STL – FF, ML
CLEV – ML
COL – FF
SF – ML, RL ½
SEA (Hernandez) – FF

[BeatingBaseball]

Friday Results

Both sessions were profitable on Friday - netting a total of +9.32 Units as plays go 9-4 on the day.

The early plays went 4-2 as TOR swept both plays, PHIL came thru with a RL cover and Danny Haren won our FF. The Yanks won the game but did not cover our RL play and the only other early play loss was FLA. We picked up +3.38 Units on the early plays.

The added plays did better yet - going 5-2 for +5.94 Units with STL sweeping both plays, CLEV a winner and both COLO/Jiminez and SEA/Felix coming thru FF. Our only late loss was SF.

Seeing daylight as we approach the surface once again.

PHIL – RL only
W
+2

FLA – ML
L
-2.08

NYY – RL only
L
-2

LAA (Haren) – FF only
W
+2.84

TOR – FF ½, ML ½
W, W
+1.32, +1.30


STL – FF, ML
W, W
+2.68, +2.72

CLEV – ML
W
+2

COL – FF
W
+2

SF – ML, RL ½
LL
-2.74, -2.72

SEA (Hernandez) – FF
W
+2

[BeatingBaseball]

9-18-10 Saturday - Early Plays

ATL – FF ½, ML, RL ½
STL – FF, ML
COLO – ML, RL ½



ATL
ATL W's in 9/12 vs Mets on the year.
Yesterday's comeback led by rookie Heyward’s 3 run jack in a very big game puts Braves in a strongly positive team dynamic.
Hudson has been pressing and over throwing last few starts - but pitches well vs Mets' lineup and on the NY stage - expect the solid pro to step up here.
Mets rookie Gee has looked great vs NATS, PITT – but ATL and Bobby Cox in a stretch drive not NATS, PITT.

STL
SD has not won in STL in more than 3 years - 11 L's in a row there.
SD has blown a 6.5 game division lead with a hellish 6-16 last 22.
Padres’ wheels now completely off with ace now getting shelled + bullpen collapse yesterday.
Forget the division - SD now 1.5 out of the wild card and shell shocked.
Cards playing for professional pride here - Padres playing in panic/chaos mode.
For STL – if you can’t win, the next best thing is spoiling it for the other guy.
Young shoulder sitation still precarious - questions remain -expect a tight pitch count for Young.
Even with shaky Suppan out there - taking Cards at home (45-27 home record) at even money or better to at least split 5 inn and full game plays here.

COLO
Rocks looking for 13th W in last 15. Tulo, CarGo en fuego.
COLO lineup facing rookie Ely in just his second start since recall from AAA.
LA playing dead - and caught up in Torre distraction and sentimentality + ownership nightmare.
Rocks all business - if Chacin can just be decent – Rocks should get the money here.

[BeatingBaseball]

Saturday - Added Plays

phil – ff ½, ml, rl ½
fla – ff ½, ml
tb – ff ½, ml, rl ½
nyy – ff ½, ml, rl
clev – ml, rl ½
tor – ff, ml

[BeatingBaseball]

Saturday Results

We had a great day on Saturday as 22 plays across 9 games go 18-4 for +22.24 Units on the day

After 938 plays (+pushes):

BeatingBaseball is officially in the green 2nd half

Early Saturday plays went 6-1 for +7.45 Units as ATL, COLO swept plays and STL split positive.

Added plays went 12-3 across 6 games (FLA our only ML loser) for +14.79 Units.


We knew we would get there and we did. We have breached the 2nd half surface.

Our primary 2nd half goal was to reach plus money.
The next is to stay in the green and exceed our +17.43 Unit 1st half.


ATL – FF ½, ML, RL ½
W, W, W
+1, +2, +1.20

STL – FF, ML
W, L
+2, -2

COLO – ML, RL ½
W, W
+2, +1.25

PHIL – FF ½, ML, RL ½
W, W, W
+1, +2, +1.4

FLA – FF ½, ML
L, L
-1.62, -3.20

TB – FF ½, ML, RL ½
W, W, L
+1, +2, -1.05

NYY – FF ½, ML, RL
W, W, W
+1, +2, +2

CLEV – ML, RL ½
W, W
+2, +1.36

TOR – FF, ML
W, W
+2.40, +2.50

[BeatingBaseball]

9-19-10 Sunday - Early Plays

Fla - ff 1/2, ml, rl 1/2
atl - ff
phil - ml, rl 1/2
tor - ff 1/2, ml 1/2
nyy - ml, rl 1/2

[BeatingBaseball]

Sunday - Added Plays

Stl - ff 1/2, ml
colo - ff 1/2, ml 1/2
clev - ff, ml

[BeatingBaseball]

Sunday - Final Play

sf - ff 1/2, ml

[BeatingBaseball]

Sunday Results

We failed to stretch the winning streak to 4 days on Sunday when both the Yankees and Rockies blew 9th inning leads then lost in extras.

Just can't seem to find that follow-up winning day this half once we break positive - at least so far.

We dug a big hole with the early plays Sunday, improved as the day progressed and capped it with 2 winning bets on SF - but 18 plays overall went 6-12 for a net loss of -8.85 Units on the day.


Early Plays -

fla - ff 1/2, ml, rl ½
L, L, L
-1.25, -1.22, -1


atl - ff
L
-2.10


phil - ml, rl 1/2
W, L
+2, -1.05

tor - ff 1/2, ml 1/2
L, L
-1, -1

nyy - ml, rl 1/2
L, L
-3.36, -1.10

Added Plays -

stl - ff 1/2, ml
W, W
+1, +2

colo - ff 1/2, ml 1/2
W, L
+1.23 -1.0

clev - ff, ml
L, L
-2, -2

Final Play

sf - ff 1/2, ml
W, W
+1, +2

[BeatingBaseball]

9-20-10 Monday - Early Play

FLA – FF ½, ML ½

Yes - it’s Carpenter.
Yes - the Fish are playing poorly - have lost 6 in a row.
Yes - FLA is 4 games under .500 at home on the year.
Yes - Cards are not mathematically out of the Central and have more to play for.
So why the Marlins here?
We’re getting +1.34 ML - that’s a .57 win expectation for Cards - they are .419 on the road overall.
At +1.34 the Fish need to play .430 in this spot to be profitable - they are .473 at home on the year.
Flying into a city for 1 day – checking in and out of a hotel and moving a team in and out of a clubhouse in 24 hours is brutal.
Carpenter is off 2 bad starts (ERA over 8 L2) – gave Cubs 5 runs in last and left with a tight right hammy.
Although Volstad has not been great - he is on 3 consecutive W’s going for 4.
With 2 shots at 5 innings and ML – a split of the 2 plays here will be profitable.
Given all of above - if we play this game 100 times - the value is all Marlins at this price.

[BeatingBaseball]

Marlins Line Better Yet

FLA just went to +1.42 (Betjamaica) = .4132 break even %