nDr. Jay's Handicapping Experiment and JM's-S.P.B. amalgamation

SuperDrew · 06-28-10, 05:36 PM

PS I don't wish to sound so negative about this, but I'm reporting the true facts about my test period on this system. I don't want people to lose your hard earned cash chasing profit which simply isn't there.

Whether this is a large enough sample is up for debate. However, until someone can produce genuine proof that this system generates an +ROI then I'm out.

And yes, the World Cup has pi55ed me off!!! Roll on 2014.

Tomahawk · 06-29-10, 08:26 AM

Originally posted by SuperDrew

Whether this is a large enough sample is up for debate.

This is why I think this is not proof, couse I had also some negative profit in simulations.

But when I used a 10000 bet sample, the profit was always positive, I've checked it 100 times.

We'll have to watch this more, but personally I bet them as single bets not parlays, so the same bets, but not the same system.

I don't count my sample size, but I know what is my profit, and I know I make around 3-4 bets daily.

So I'll have 600 bet sample yearly, so I can say more in using these bets for 16 years, when I reach 10000 bets, till then I see nothing to talk or argue about. :P

I'll report back with my results in 16 years.

SuperDrew · 06-29-10, 01:31 PM

Looks like the skinny odds are getting the better of the buffet:

jolmscheid · 06-30-10, 08:06 AM

Yeah 20 Units is still a good profit, but it has been stuck on that number for quite a while now...

SuperDrew · 06-30-10, 02:05 PM

Back in the black last night. Long may it continue:

Tomahawk · 07-01-10, 05:40 AM

We are over 600 profitable picks now, this is getting to look exiting.

I hope are best bet edge ROI won't stay at 5% and grow at least to 8% as it was before.

jolmscheid · 07-01-10, 09:42 AM

Yeah that would be nice...Hey Tomahawk, are you playing ALL the plays TO WIN or or are you RISKING like Superdrew's stat? SD's stats are at about +21 Units RISKING 1 Unit per play...just wondering if that is what you have been doing? And maybe it is better / worse to play all the plays TO WIN 1 Unit? Thanks

SuperDrew · 07-01-10, 01:23 PM

Shocker. Might be time to ease of the bets:

Tomahawk · 07-02-10, 07:21 AM

Originally posted by jolmscheid

Yeah that would be nice...Hey Tomahawk, are you playing ALL the plays TO WIN or or are you RISKING like Superdrew's stat? SD's stats are at about +21 Units RISKING 1 Unit per play...just wondering if that is what you have been doing? And maybe it is better / worse to play all the plays TO WIN 1 Unit? Thanks

I'm risking 1 unit/play.

I bet on every best bet and ultimate bet.

Some times I bet a good bet, but only if I have better ratios then John Morrison.

My goal is not to win 1 unit/play, couse we bet on heavy favorites, so I wouldn't like to win 1 unit/play.

jolmscheid · 07-02-10, 08:00 AM

yeah that sounds good Tomahawk. Thanks for the reply...how are your own ratio plays coming along?

SuperDrew · 07-03-10, 02:32 AM

First losing month although Ultimates back on song:

jolmscheid · 07-03-10, 10:40 AM

Well that is losing month #1 for the buffet...so lets hope we can hit 2 out of 3 winning months for a long time huh??

SuperDrew · 07-04-10, 04:12 AM

Latest stats. I fear the profits will soon be gobbled completely with the ever shortening prices being proposed:

jolmscheid · 07-04-10, 02:44 PM

Yeah I feel you could be right about that SuperDrew...we are still up over 15 units, which is great, but I just don't know how we can continue to profit like this if we bet so many plays in a day at such HIGH prices!

SuperDrew · 07-05-10, 02:42 PM

The decline continued last night:

Tomahawk · 07-07-10, 06:35 AM

What a day yesterday. 6-0 with ultimate and best bets.

It was time for a day like this after our 3 week long losing streak.

jolmscheid · 07-07-10, 09:57 AM

Dang...wish I woulda played them...I haven't been playing the Buffet picks because I want to see what our edge is after 1,000 bets like you said Tomahawk...

SuperDrew · 07-07-10, 02:02 PM

Finally a good night. I give the credit to the favourites, not to the cappers who just follow the odds like sheep. Baaaaaaa........

SuperDrew · 07-10-10, 08:08 AM

Here's the analysis of the SPB by odds. It shows if we dodge both really short and really long odds, we can increase our expected value:

jolmscheid · 07-10-10, 01:06 PM

Superdrew...so basically just pick the buffet games that have odds of between 1.6-2.29 and we would have more profits?????

SuperDrew · 07-10-10, 01:30 PM

You have it, jolm. The strike rate below 1.6 isn't good enough to cover the shoddy odds. As my C stats show, these are a ticket to the poor house.

Tomahawk · 07-12-10, 08:59 AM

Originally posted by SuperDrew

You have it, jolm. The strike rate below 1.6 isn't good enough to cover the shoddy odds. As my C stats show, these are a ticket to the poor house.

Good to know, luckily most of the Buffet odds are above 1.6

SuperDrew · 07-12-10, 03:05 PM

Originally posted by Tomahawk

Good to know, luckily most of the Buffet odds are above 1.6

FYI Toma, 163 of the 688 bets to date on SPB have been under 1.6.

Meanwhile, the streak is smokin' hot!!!

SuperDrew · 07-13-10, 01:12 PM

Comparison of different bet selection processes:

Palcsi · 07-17-10, 02:16 PM

thank you for all to sharing nice information...

VPIHokies · 09-27-10, 07:44 PM

gl to all