SuperDrew, Are the results that you are posting solely for DrJM SPB or do they also include results for the DrJ's Handicapping Experiment?
Cheers
Cheers
-
Comment -
They are the SPB only. DJ is still being analyzed and me and Maxi are running an ongoing investigation. I feel we have got calcs to assess each games risk of killing us, but we need to weigh this against reduced returns before issuing recommendations on how to apply this system.Originally posted by SantiagoJoeComment -
converting american odds to decimal
I'm not sure how you would convert American odds to the xl spreadsheet for Dr Jays system.
For example let's say the line below is one of the top 3 averages you input into the speadsheet.
Cin +119 moneyline -195 runline
Oak -128 moneyline +165 runline
how would this be averaged: would it be (1.65+1.19)/2 which equals 1.42 or would it be
(2.65+2.19)/2 = 2.42Comment -
2.42Comment -
Yes, but I can't give it to you, since it's not mine. Also I wouldn't post the PDF for everybody to see on the forum if it was mine.Originally posted by jolmscheidComment -
Maxi,Originally posted by Maxi_EV
It is very good. When i bought the system, i did not expect much. Now I can see real benefit of it.
thanks
Tan
PS. I was deplyed in Salt Lake City last night. I will be home today.
Any Dr Jay today?Comment -
I still don't really understand how to pick the 3 games each day and how to parlay them each day? Could someone please tell me EXACTLY what to do for this? Thank You very much!!!!!Comment -
My 3 teams. Athletics+Rays+Nationals for today.Comment -
Under Dr Jay's method you do the following:Originally posted by jolmscheid
List all for the day's games and note the odds of the Fav on the -1.5 runline and the dog on the money line.
For each game take the average of these two odds for each game.
The top 3 averages are your chosen games for the day. (A, B & C)
Now form the 8 possible 3-way parlays.
A Fav RL, B Fav RL & C Fav RL
A Fav RL, B Fav RL & C Dog ML
A Fav RL, B Dog ML, & C Fav RL
A Fav RL, B Dog ML & C Dog ML
A Dog ML, B Fav RL & C Fav RL
A Dog ML, B Fav RL & C Dog ML
A Dog ML, B Dog ML & C Fav RL
A Dog ML, B Dog ML & C Dog ML
You need to place your stakes so that the net result is identical no matter which parlay wins. eg put more on the shorter odds and less on the longer odds. Just set up a simple spreadsheet to calculate this, saves you a lot of time!!!
7 are guaranteed to lose, but if none of the games end with the fav winning by one, then we pick up a winner with a return on our total investment of 70% for the day.
The ongoing investigation is analysing this to find improved selection methods which improve our EV.Comment -
Hmm...that makes more sense to me now. Thanks for your help SuperDrew...and so I am guessing that this system is ONLY for 3 teams and ONLY for MLB correct? Oh, and Maxi...I saw your simulation on how we would do using this system...are those numbers pretty rock solid? I mean, are you pretty confident that this has a good chance of being profitable? Thanks allComment -
Let's say there is a light schedule such as yesterday. Do you bet on those days? What is your lowest number of games on a scheduled day to bet?Comment -
If it gives EV then you bet. Obviously minimum games is 3. The minimum net odds is 1.61 if you assume dj's quote of 13% chance of each game killing you is correct. Maxi works slightly higher at around 14%. My research so far suggests this is actually 17%.Comment -
Thanks SuperDrew...so have you been playing this system at all? I know that you said it was in a testing phase and Maxi said he was definitely going to do this based off of his simulations. So since you and Maxi are the stat wizzes, I was wondering how many of these plays one would have to hit in order to be profitable assuming your research of 17%? Thanks!Comment -
I'm not betting. I am backtracking the stats and this will take another couple of weeks yet. Then I will do the results on four methods. Dr jay's average, maxi's co-efficient, super drew's unlikeliest, and a combo of maxi's and sdu. The results will then be published.Comment -
EV???
I appreciate your answers you have provided on this subject. What does EV stand for?Originally posted by SuperDrewComment -
Thank you very much SuperDrew...Look forward to your results!Comment -
even bet. no juice involved. bet $100 to win $100Originally posted by Hockey WarriorComment -
No it does not!!!!! It is EXPECTED VALUE. It is a measurement of your long-term profitability. It compares the risk of losing your bet against the reward when you win. If you find positive expected value, you will make profit long-term. Example, if you are able to find bets where you know you have a 60% chance of winning but the odds are 2.0 (+100, for you lucky American turds, Landon Donovan jog on, come on Ghana!) and place 100 of these bets you will win 60 times which pays a 60 unit profit, while losing 40 units giving a net profit of 20 units. If you bet when the EV is negative you will lose, this is what 98% of gamblers do.Originally posted by chilidog
Just be patient over the next few weeks and all will be fully illustrated. My personal recommendation is that you don't do anything other than paper betting until this is complete.Comment -
Awesome...thanks again SuperDrew...can't waitComment -
yah, superdrew is right; i didn't read the entire thread. when he's speaking of EV, it does mean expected value. but EV also stands for even money:
Even money
Even money means you risk a dollar to win a dollar. Even money is also expressed as EV or as PK. It could be, but is not, expressed as -100 or +100.Comment -
Here's the updated proftability of SPB ONLY:
Comment -
Wow, we have data from 557 bets, we are getting pretty accurate results now. I can't wait to reach 1000 bets.
The only thing I would like more data from is the Ultimate bet, but unfortunately we have only 365 ultimate bets a year, so it will take 2-3 years to get pretty accurate results for the ultimate bet.Comment -
Yeah I get what you are saying Tomahawk...It really will be interesting to see where we will be at when we hit 1,000 bets...HOPEFULLY it will be something that we ALL can have confidence in that we KNOW will be profitable for us! What are your predicitions for NFL and NCAA? I mean he can't use high juice moneylines on those plays!Comment -
On this thread only EV means Expected Value: A term, MaxEV came up with referring to a scenario where odds and payouts are in our favor.Originally posted by chilidogComment -
EV is a standard analytical measurement used in every business every day for decision making. It isn't something that has been created for the purposes of this thread. It is, however, the key any successful betting system. Anyone that doesn't understand it should google it to ensure they have a full understanding of it before we get to work on this system.
Anyhows, here's the update on SPB:
Comment -
The Dr Jay research is complete. The results are VERY interesting. I'm now just generating the profits from each of the four methods and results will be published later this weekend.Comment -
I'm looking forward to see the results of the number crunching!Comment -
Awesome SuperDrew!!! I can't wait to see how this turns out! Thanks for doing all you do...look forward to thisComment -
Here it is. After what feels like a lifetime of number compilation and ignorign the wife and dogs to get these stats out. Drumroll please......
I have measured this system under four possible methods. Dr Jays average price system, Maxi/Toma's co-efficient price system, SuperDrew's unlikeliest selection system, and a combined co-efficient and SuperDrew's unlikeliest:
As this shows, this 'system' is an absolute pig that is definitely not our ticket to riches. I suspect 'Dr Jay' is just another internet scammer out to make a fast buck. All of this after my approach to this system had rocketed to a £1000 profit in the first few weeks! But by the end of the 3 months, all methods were equally poor. The target profit each day was £100.
However, all is not lost. During my research phase, I have unearthed some interesting stats on the probabilities of any game finshing fav by 1 run and I will be running a few off-shoot projects from this to see if I can make some cash out of this after all.
Sorry I couldn't bring you good news. Just another one for the scrapheap.Comment -
Hers's the update on the SPB:
Comment -
This is only 3 month of testing and only 80-90 bets made, this unfortunately doesn't proves anything.Originally posted by SuperDrewHere it is. After what feels like a lifetime of number compilation and ignorign the wife and dogs to get these stats out. Drumroll please......
I have measured this system under four possible methods. Dr Jays average price system, Maxi/Toma's co-efficient price system, SuperDrew's unlikeliest selection system, and a combined co-efficient and SuperDrew's unlikeliest:
As this shows, this 'system' is an absolute pig that is definitely not our ticket to riches. I suspect 'Dr Jay' is just another internet scammer out to make a fast buck. All of this after my approach to this system had rocketed to a £1000 profit in the first few weeks! But by the end of the 3 months, all methods were equally poor. The target profit each day was £100.
However, all is not lost. During my research phase, I have unearthed some interesting stats on the probabilities of any game finshing fav by 1 run and I will be running a few off-shoot projects from this to see if I can make some cash out of this after all.
Sorry I couldn't bring you good news. Just another one for the scrapheap.
I am testing it with a more stable technique. I bet on single games both RL and underdog ML. I have around 5-6 games to bet a day this way and I do this for 3 month now and I'm in 1.5 unit profit.
It's harder to have proof if you bet it as a parlay, couse if you bet like me, you have more data. I'm 100% sure that I will have between 20 and 40 unit profit till the end of the season.
The bigger the odds, the bigger are the up and downs of a system.
For example let's asume you have an edge when you play the lotto, couse the moneypool is big enough, you still have to spend millions of dollars to win the 30-40 million dollar prize, so you lose a lot of money, until you can make that 1 big win.Comment -
Like I said, I think this has highlighted ways we can make money. And it is middles/polish betting. But if you're not testing parlays then you are not testing Dr Jay's system!!!! You are making your own one up. I have not tested 80-90 bets, I have tested over 1100. And no matter which way you put a spin on it, it fails. As the Yanks say, 'Period!' In my great nation that means a lady is menstruating!!!!!Originally posted by Tomahawk
Now I'm done with analysis for the day. Some things are more important......
COME ON ENGLAND!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Comment -
Gutted.Comment -
So SuperDrew...you strongly believe that the Dr. Jay's system is a no go huh? Maxi thinks that this has a chance to be profitable in the long run based on his observations...but maybe it is too risky? SuperDrew and Maxi..I would like to have a few more comments on why or why not this is or isn't profitable. ThanksComment -
Here's some facts I have discovered while researching this system. 1074 games were covered. The % of games where the favourite won by 1 run was 16.67%. This is substantially greater than the 13% Dr Jay claims. This % conveniently makes the project appear to return a positive EV when applied alongside his other claim that 'all games have an equal chance of ending with a win for the favourite by one'. I have proved this to be poppycock. In fact, by selecting games using the DJ system, we actually pick games which have an 18.93% strike rate of faves by one.Originally posted by jolmscheid
To apply the maths to this:
A 3-team parlay using DJ has a chance of dodging the bullets of 81.07%x81.07%x81.07% = 53.28%. The average odds (being generous) is 1.7.
Therefore, over 100 bets with a target profit of £100, the expected value is:
53 x £100 wins = +£5,300
47 x £142 losses = (£6,674)
TOTAL (£1,374) NEGATIVE!!!!
You will this stacks up with my graph which is generated off real 2010 results, not simulations. I have got a filter for games which only have an 8% chance of killing us, but the odds drop so much that the expected value comes out equally poorly (and games don't crop up very often).
And on this basis, I wash my hands of this system. If Toma or Maxi wish to continue tracking this and reporting back then good luck to them. But my personal advice is not to touch this with a bargepole. Fastest ticket to the poor house you will ever get.Comment
