nDr. Jay's Handicapping Experiment and JM's-S.P.B. amalgamation

Quadropheniac · 05-30-10, 11:10 PM

OK guys to kickoff the new thread I have to share my Sunday night experiment. It was crazy. Maxi can vouch for me. I went into this blindly, a bad mistake. Of course I bet very small since it was an experiment and right off the bat I messed up and made the wrong parlay bets. Instead of a combo of dogs, faves, and RL's I just did a combo of faves ML's and Faves RL's.

LOW AND BEHOLD, I GOT LUCKY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Here are the results;

May 30, 2010 07:27 AM (08:39:11 AM) Writer:INETUSR Confirmation #:100530072720-3 LOST 3 tms PARLAY 20/239 $-20 964. Padres (San Diego) PS -1½ +145 LP L Hernandez -R / J Garland -R (2-3) 956. Braves (Atlanta) PS -1½ +125 LP P Maholm -L / K Kawakami -R (2-5) 978. Angels (Los Angeles) PS -1½ +135 LP I Snell -R / J Saunders -L (7-9)
May 30, 2010 07:27 AM (08:39:11 AM) Writer:INETUSR Confirmation #:100530072720-4 LOST 3 tms PARLAY 20/164 $-20 964. Padres (San Diego) PS -1½ +145 LP L Hernandez -R / J Garland -R (2-3) 956. Braves (Atlanta) ML -167 LP P Maholm -L / K Kawakami -R (2-5) 978. Angels (Los Angeles) PS -1½ +135 LP I Snell -R / J Saunders -L (7-9)
May 30, 2010 07:27 AM (08:55:33 AM) Writer:INETUSR Confirmation #:100530072720-5 LOST 3 tms PARLAY 20/161 $-20 964. Padres (San Diego) PS -1½ +140 LP L Hernandez -R / J Garland -R (2-3) 956. Braves (Atlanta) PS -1½ +125 LP P Maholm -L / K Kawakami -R (2-5) 978. Angels (Los Angeles) ML -147 LP I Snell -R / J Saunders -L (7-9)
May 30, 2010 07:27 AM (08:55:33 AM) Writer:INETUSR Confirmation #:100530072720-6 LOST 3 tms PARLAY 15/82 $-15 964. Padres (San Diego) PS -1½ +140 LP L Hernandez -R / J Garland -R (2-3) 956. Braves (Atlanta) ML -167 LP P Maholm -L / K Kawakami -R (2-5) 978. Angels (Los Angeles) ML -147 LP I Snell -R / J Saunders -L (7-9)
May 30, 2010 07:27 AM (08:59:45 AM) Writer:INETUSR Confirmation #:100530072720-7 WON 3 tms PARLAY 15/113 $113 964. Padres (San Diego) ML -163 LP L Hernandez -R / J Garland -R (2-3) 956. Braves (Atlanta) PS -1½ +125 LP P Maholm -L / K Kawakami -R (2-5) 978. Angels (Los Angeles) PS -1½ +135 LP I Snell -R / J Saunders -L (7-9)
May 30, 2010 07:27 AM (08:59:45 AM) Writer:INETUSR Confirmation #:100530072720-8 WON 3 tms PARLAY 20/102 $102 964. Padres (San Diego) ML -163 LP L Hernandez -R / J Garland -R (2-3) 956. Braves (Atlanta) PS -1½ +125 LP P Maholm -L / K Kawakami -R (2-5) 978. Angels (Los Angeles) ML -147 LP I Snell -R / J Saunders -L (7-9)
May 30, 2010 07:27 AM (08:59:45 AM) Writer:INETUSR Confirmation #:100530072720-9 WON 3 tms PARLAY 20/101 $101 964. Padres (San Diego) ML -163 LP L Hernandez -R / J Garland -R (2-3) 956. Braves (Atlanta) ML -167 LP P Maholm -L / K Kawakami -R (2-5) 978. Angels (Los Angeles) PS -1½ +135 LP I Snell -R / J Saunders -L (7-9)
May 30, 2010 07:27 AM (08:59:46 AM) Writer:INETUSR Confirmation #:100530072720-10 WON 3 tms PARLAY 20/67 $67 964. Padres (San Diego) ML -163 LP L Hernandez -R / J Garland -R (2-3) 956. Braves (Atlanta) ML -167 LP P Maholm -L / K Kawakami -R (2-5) 978. Angels (Los Angeles) ML -147 LP I Snell -R / J Saunders -L (7-9)

tannguyen94 · 05-30-10, 11:48 PM

Bro! You messed the system up already and won? Sometimes it is luck better than do right. I will post my 3 teams but they are maybe not good for you. They are depend on your book odd.

SuperDrew · 05-31-10, 04:57 AM

We're slowly but surely undoing the damage from early last week:

Quadropheniac · 05-31-10, 11:03 AM

Originally posted by tannguyen94

Bro! You messed the system up already and won? Sometimes it is luck better than do right. I will post my 3 teams but they are maybe not good for you. They are depend on your book odd.

Pure luck.
I'm going to do a simulation bet today to make sure I did it right this time.

Maxi_EV · 05-31-10, 12:04 PM

For those familiar with the DrJay's system, here are the rules that I apply and that Jay seems to have forgoten (or ignored):

- Min Final odds Required = 1.65 (I know some will accept odds as low as 1.61, BUT I DON'T)
- Total bet should be 10% of roll MAX

Tomahawk · 05-31-10, 01:21 PM

Those who don't know about Dr Jay's system it's based on 1 thing:
The chance of a favorite team to win by exactly 1 point is 14.66% in the worst case.

So we chose 3 games where the odds are too high for the underdog and -1.5 and make a parlay bet using the 3 games.

We make 8 parlay bets:
1ML 2ML 3ML
1ML 2ML 3RL
1ML 2RL 3ML
1ML 2RL 3RL
1RL 2ML 3ML
1RL 2ML 3RL
1RL 2RL 3ML
1RL 2RL 3ML

The numbers mean the game we place the bet on.

Ok, so we have a complex parlay system here and the odds for this parlay system should be better then 1.61, but Maxi doesn't like EV-s lower then 5%, so he prefers 1.65.

Keep in mind that when somebody is beating the house in BlackJack, his EV is around 2-3%, so with this low EV you also can make money, but it's not guaranteed that you will make money in the first 100 bets, so it's take much more time then having an EV better then 5%.

Quadropheniac · 05-31-10, 01:31 PM

Very good thanks for that!

SuperDrew · 06-01-10, 02:45 PM

Here's the results update:

Tomahawk · 06-01-10, 04:09 PM

At the beginning the good plays made the same profit as the best, but now you can clearly see the difference. From now on I'll only bet the best and the ultimate plays.

Tomahawk · 06-02-10, 05:19 PM

This is the profit what S.P.B. did to my account with a conservative 1% unit in the last 397 bets.

Tomahawk · 06-02-10, 05:32 PM

I also used a Dr Jay combination today to get every money I can out of the bookie.

My combo was:
Minnesota (Slowey) at Seattle (Lee)
Texas (Feldman) at Chicago (A) (Floyd)
Washington (Lannan) at Houston (Rodriguez)

We already know a lot of stats and strategy about S.P.B. and Dr Jay's system, but we don't know enough info about the Maxi EV selections.

Maxi, can you present us the knowledge behind your successfull Maxi EV selections? Or maybe you could throw some picks in front of us.

For the newbies EV means Expected Value, wich describes the long term profit hidden secretely in a bet. This secret can only be revealed by professional sports handicapping eyes.

SuperDrew · 06-03-10, 03:02 PM

Here's the profit update, it's safe to say we're on the up:

Tomahawk · 06-03-10, 03:39 PM

Yesterday we had the richest dreams of our life and it proved that a good bet might be slightly more profitable then I thought.

I totally wait what happens when placing 1000 of these.

SuperDrew · 06-05-10, 03:30 AM

On a downer last few days because of the 'good' bets:

jolmscheid · 06-05-10, 05:50 PM

Hey Thanks superdrew and tomahawk for keeping track of the buffet picks...are the picks going to be posted in this thread or the other one? Thanks

jolmscheid · 06-05-10, 05:50 PM

And also, I really don't understand the Dr. Jay's parlay system??? could you please explain to me more how I do that?? Thanks a lot for your help and how has that been doing?

jolmscheid · 06-05-10, 05:51 PM

I look forward to getting everything down with Superdrew, Tomahawk, Maxi, and Quad...look forward to your help and replies.

Kev the Brit · 06-06-10, 03:49 AM

Not much can be said about last night. It was an unmitigated disaster:

The Ultimate Bet lost.
Only 2 from 7 Best Bets won.
2 from 4 Good Bets won.

The man has apologised for putting the Yankees as the UB instead of the Reds. Fair enough, but I don't load up the UB, anyway.

For me, it was a loss of 4.34 units. However, the system remains in profit after more than 400 units have been placed. Good days and bad days.

"After all, tomorrow's another day!"

(last words from which film, guys?)

Regards
Kev

SuperDrew · 06-06-10, 03:56 AM

It's safe to say that was a pig of a day. The Yankees took about 4 hours to end up with a defeat and it all went downhill from there:

SuperDrew · 06-06-10, 04:05 AM

Originally posted by jolmscheid

And also, I really don't understand the Dr. Jay's parlay system??? could you please explain to me more how I do that?? Thanks a lot for your help and how has that been doing?

The DJ is based on an assumption that any game chosen at random has, at worst, a 14.6% chance of ending with the favourite winning by exactly one run. By looking at the day's fixtures and multiplying the money line of the dog by the run line -1.5 for the favourite. Take the top three ranked games for the day on this basis and then place the 8 parlays as described by Tomahawk above. You need to ensure that your end profit/loss position is identical no matter which of the 8 wins and returns a positive return when taking the chance of a winner as 85.4%x85.4%x85.4%. If any of your three games ends with the favourite winning by 1, then you lose all of your stake.

The system has been under monitoring for around 10 days now, and whether I'm just jinxed or it's just a sticky start, isn't performing as well as expected. I am currently building stats to aid the EV calculations as it is a very broad assumption to say that all games have the same probabilty of dodging the Fav by 1. However, until we can prove otherwise, we must go with this. I would like to get a sample of over 1000 games before we say anymore.

OverAnalyze · 06-06-10, 04:11 AM

Gone with the wind

Kev the Brit · 06-07-10, 03:26 AM

"After all, tomorrow's another day!"

Indeed it was, and what a good day it was too, Scarlett! (well done, OverAnalyze)

The Ultimate Bet won
The 3 other Best Bets won
3 from 5 Good Bets won.
The NBA Bet won

Excellent.

My profit was 3.74 units, which almost recovered the loss incurred on Sat. I thought it would take longer to recover. Many thanks to the cappers out there, who got it right yesterday.

Regards
Kev

DIRTYDIRTY · 06-07-10, 06:42 AM

looks very involved

Maxi_EV · 06-07-10, 07:33 AM

This is my Jay so far.

I'm up after 13 bets

pretty close to what was expected

SportsAddict · 06-07-10, 08:47 AM

wow i wish i knew wtf all this crap meant

SuperDrew · 06-07-10, 01:38 PM

It appears we have what's technically known as 'bouncebackability'. Take that Sportsbooks, WALLOP!!!!

SuperDrew · 06-07-10, 03:57 PM

Here's my Dr Jay stats. Not as bad as I thought, but the last few days have been awful:

tannguyen94 · 06-07-10, 05:36 PM

Here is my Dr. Jay for tonight Dogders (A), Cardinals(B),Diamondsback(C),Braves(D),P hillies(E) and Padres (F)
GL

Kev the Brit · 06-08-10, 03:07 AM

Well, last night, Jun 7, produced a .22 point profit on the Best Bets (Ultimate Bet included, which produced a .58 point profit), but the Good Bets were disasterous: all 3 points lost. Overall, across the Buffet, it was a 2.8 points loss. Not good.

I notice that the Best Bets, after 158 bets, are now begining to show a significantly better profit than the Good Bets.

I shall continue to flat bet all Buffet picks until the Best bets have 200 results, whereupon I shall decide if my money is best invested on Best Bets only. Its beginning to look like Best Bets (incl the daily Ultimate Bet) only are the way ahead....

Regards
Kev

Kev the Brit · 06-08-10, 03:11 AM

Does anyone know what system/formula (ie a baseline ratio) JM uses to differentiate between a Best Bet and a Good bet?

Thanks

Kev

Tomahawk · 06-08-10, 05:43 AM

Originally posted by Kev the Brit

Does anyone know what system/formula (ie a baseline ratio) JM uses to differentiate between a Best Bet and a Good bet?

Thanks

Kev

This is a something that not even JM knows.

He just looks at the ratios and colors the best lookings with red and the good lookings with blue.

For example here are some best ratios:
8:2
5:0
14:5
22:0
7:2
6:1

I don't think he's using any specific formula.

tannguyen94 · 06-08-10, 02:02 PM

Won last night. Here is tonight Mets,Brewsers and Twin.
GL

looksharp · 06-08-10, 02:46 PM

ty and GL

Stevie Hedges · 06-08-10, 03:59 PM

Originally posted by tannguyen94

Won last night. Here is tonight Mets,Brewsers and Twin.
GL

So these are the 3 teams that you are betting 8 parlays with, correct? Dr. Jay's system, right. I just want to make sure before I make the bets. Thanks in advance for getting back to me before first pitch.

thx and GL