Memorial Day Weekend Starts This Chase

[doubledime]

Thursday July 29 Update

Since Colorado was a 1/2 unit play, we are now approximately minus 4 units this series. Since the the price today is -290 we are going to play the run line for 4 units. If we win we are even on the series, if we lose we are minus approximately 9.5 units for this series.

Colorado C Play (see above)

Good luck to all

[BigMama]

A great day for all...good luck

[G's pks]

You should hit...GL...but next time either way maybe add a filter for losing streaks and check batting averages within a certain period of games... I know going to a 3rd game is no fun...hopefully you pull it go even when you are trying to be conservative as I see you are in this case...the risk has built up... You have the right guy on the mound hopefully he wakes up for you.

The Rockies are batting .224 in their last 5.. .219 in their last 10. Also they entered this series in a losing streak...

[doubledime]

Thanks G You are spot on with the filters. Unfortuately, our guy on the mound has not been that sharp as of late, but I think he's the one, if anyone, that can stop Colorado's bleeding. Good luck to you this weekend.

[doubledime]

A great day for all...good luck

Thanks BM and best of luck to us all!!!

[G's pks]

Jimenez looks good today you should be fine... Rooting for you...

[doubledime]

Friday July 30 Update

Thanks G for the support. Colorado decided to play and they won.

We've updated the numbers, figuring the Colorado series as a push.

We'll be back later with the Friday plays.

System YTD 31.5 - 1/2
Units YTD + 25.5

A Plays won 20.5 (12 one unit plays and 17 half unit plays)
B Plays won 7 (5 one unit plays and 4 half unit plays)
C Plays won 5 lost 1 (1 win counted as push)

Good luck to all

[doubledime]

Friday July 30 Final Update

Mets A Play
St. Louis A Play (Run Line for this game)
Toronto A Play (1/2 unit due to price)
Boston A Play (1/2 unit due to price)
Minnesota A Play (1/2 unit due to price)

System YTD 31.5 - 1/2
Units YTD + 25.5

Good luck to all

[doubledime]

Saturday July 30 Update

Toronto and Minnesota win.

Mets B Play
Cards B Play (ML today)
Boston B Play

System YTD 32.5 - 1/2
Units YTD 26.5

Good luck to all

[doubledime]

Sunday August 1 Update

Our 3 B plays win, with Boston pulling it out in the 9th.

No plays for today of course.

System YTD 35 - 1/2
Units YTD +29

Good luck to all

[doubledime]

Monday August 2 Update

We are very close to our goal of +30 units. We will be going into full blown protect mode after this series group.

Reds A Play (a rare away team play)
Cards A Play
Yanks A Play (1/2 unit due to price)
Red Sox A Play (1/2 unit due to price)

System YTD 35 - 1/2
Units YTD +29

Good luck to all

[gtboy]

how about TB.isn't TB better bet than STL. Thanks.

[G's pks]

how about TB.isn't TB better bet than STL. Thanks.

TB is a four game series you should be fine... Doubt the Twins win all four and it would be an incredible run and an extremely long win streak at that point..

[gtboy]

TB is a four game series you should be fine... Doubt the Twins win all four and it would be an incredible run and an extremely long win streak at that point..

hope so. i already took TB. I think min has some injuries, beside TB is a dame good team. Being riding them since all star break. we will see. thanks.

[broadway6]

BOL DD

[G's pks]

hope so. i already took TB. I think min has some injuries, beside TB is a dame good team. Being riding them since all star break. we will see. thanks.

gtboy...
Told you TB was a good pick nice win...

[doubledime]

Tuesday August 3 Update

We only won the Reds yesterday. Not the start we look for, but toady we have:

Cards B Play
Yanks B Play (1/2 unit due to price)
Red Sox B Play (1/2 unit due to price)

System YTD 36 - 1/2
Units YTD +30

Good luck to all

[doubledime]

Wednesday August 4 Update

At least Boston wins, but we really did not figure the Yanks and Cards to have to go to C plays.

In order to protect our profits we will recommend the following: As of today we are down approximately 7.5 units with the Cards and 6 units with the Yankees, therefore, our C play is going to be those amounts on those teams. If we win, there will not be any profit with them. Of course, there are other options, the run line, play lesser units on each, don't play and just take your loses, or split your play between the money line and the run line. Either way, let's win these tonight.

System YTD 36.5 - 1/2
Units YTD +30.5

Best of luck to all

[G's pks]

Doubledime what is your risk amount to win amount? I know you just show units....Are you playing these large amounts? If you are playing to win 7.5 and 6 units the bet amounts are extremely large especially with carpenter on the mound... I am guessing your unit amount size is much smaller than $100 a unit? Not to many people would be risking these large amounts at this point and if they were you would be hearing about it by now!

I am sure you realize that most if not all people after a single loss (A bet in this case)back off... and after a second loss (B)it can be like a ghost town..

My unoffical play stuck me with the Yankees game/series but the listed risk amount is .34/.18. Meaning a very low risk game even using my multiplier...

Good advice for those not comfortable to back off..I agree anytime you get to a point where the losses could hurt you stop.

So I am not sure if you are betting these gigantic amounts or just testing the system with keeping track doubling up every game...


The listed below are what the risk reward would be at this point risk/reward... 2890/ to win 1355... I am guessing you are just record keeping...testing this?

Risk/...reward
1800/750 cards at -240
and
1090/605 yanks at -180

I doubt to many people are betting those amounts...and that would be just to break even on those plays...if they both lost that would be over $4100 in losses counting the A + B amounts!


Would be interesting to see what your exact bet amounts are during these series... I know it is nice to keep track and just add wins...but much more challenging to show what you are really betting...

Well whatever your amount good luck... I am pulling for you...I am with you on the yankees and think the cards should get it done with Carp on the mound also...

Just wanted to point out people playing full unit sizes would not have slept last night... GL and keep up the good work... I have had a few "C" or game #3 as I call them now myself...but the risk/reward is not at this level...

[doubledime]

G, I have to believe in the system, but I realize everyone is going to be playing different, and that is why I laid out some alternatives. I hate C plays, but no matter how much you handicap a sereies, they are they are inevitable. I have watched your system this year and it really makes a lot of sense so as not to have the "stress" of a C play. I am probably going to tweek what i have done for years, and incorporate some of your betting strategies, to reduce the exposure of the C play. Thanks for your support and best of luck to you today also.

[G's pks]

G, I have to believe in the system, but I realize everyone is going to be playing different, and that is why I laid out some alternatives. I hate C plays, but no matter how much you handicap a sereies, they are they are inevitable. I have watched your system this year and it really makes a lot of sense so as not to have the "stress" of a C play. I am probably going to tweek what i have done for years, and incorporate some of your betting strategies, to reduce the exposure of the C play. Thanks for your support and best of luck to you today also.

I think next year I am going to list a key strategy for these series that suck us into large odds by the 2nd or 3rd game... Here is my idea... Before each series starts look at the pitchers for all the games within the series...which I do now... next decide if by the second or third game the odds will create a large play...if so there has to be a rule win or lose... Take a look at your bankroll or even just your winnings...

If you have more going on a series or two than you have won all year something is wrong... Hopefully the Yanks and Cards win...but this idea is something for you to look at... I would say you should never have more than 10% total of your bankroll or winnings at risk after a few months to avoid a one or two series wipe out...

The rev had a great thread five solid systems but by the break all 5 systems were under water because of the constant doubling of wagers...

This has nothing to do with winning or losing today...just with the risk/reward ratio... Just a thought...glad you did not take it out of context...

[doubledime]

I think next year I am going to list a key strategy for these series that suck us into large odds by the 2nd or 3rd game... Here is my idea... Before each series starts look at the pitchers for all the games within the series...which I do now... next decide if by the second or third game the odds will create a large play...if so there has to be a rule win or lose... Take a look at your bankroll or even just your winnings...

If you have more going on a series or two than you have won all year something is wrong... Hopefully the Yanks and Cards win...but this idea is something for you to look at... I would say you should never have more than 10% total of your bankroll or winnings at risk after a few months to avoid a one or two series wipe out...

The rev had a great thread five solid systems but by the break all 5 systems were under water because of the constant doubling of wagers...

This has nothing to do with winning or losing today...just with the risk/reward ratio... Just a thought...glad you did not take it out of context...

I am a quite conservative player, most of the time. Been doing it for over 35 years, and have had my "bumps" in the road so I have learned. One thing for sure, there's a lot to learn from people who have certain insights into handicapping that I may have never considered. As my Dad once told me...."I never learn anything when I'm talking"

Please share any ideas that you have and I will likewise.

[G's pks]

I am a quite conservative player, most of the time. Been doing it for over 35 years, and have had my "bumps" in the road so I have learned. One thing for sure, there's a lot to learn from people who have certain insights into handicapping that I may have never considered. As my Dad once told me...."I never learn anything when I'm talking"

Please share any ideas that you have and I will likewise.

sounds good...

[doubledime]

Wednesday Augest 4 Revised Update

Okay, Yankees win, that leaves just St. Louis. Now we will go into an even greater "protect" mode with St. Louis. We will be playing only, to win 4 units. If we win we will be down 3.5 units on this series. Either way we still have enough season left to reach our 30 unit goal.

Good luck to all

[doubledime]

Thursday August 5 Update

St. Louis finally wins, so we win the series but lose 3.5 units. (See above) For the record, we have no regrets playing St. Louis for a lesser amount. The price was just too steep. We are close to +30 units so we will be very careful from here on out, and will be looking to wrap these series up in the A or B game. I don't want us to have the stress of any more C games.

We may be back later with an update.

System YTD 38 - 1/2
Units YTD +27

Best of luck to all

[G's pks]

Glad you won but the risk/reward was way out of line...a loss would have been more than whatever the total is you have won... Just a thought and I won on the Yanks which was a system play for me..but I mentioned I was going to play the Cards...which was not a system play for me and I went out and never got home in time to place a bet...

Glad you pulled it out... hopefully you work on your risk reward ratios to avoid this for next year...otherwise one system loss by doubling and doubling will eventually get you... The rev had five systems up and all went below zero very quickly... Someone took over his thread and it got wiped out again by the all-star break and they said they were going to make changes which from what I see they did not... It is winning for now fingers crossed for them that they can keep picking the highest favs and get away with it till the year ends doubling up every game...

Well good luck and taking a loss within a series like you did in Stl I think is always a smart thing to do to avoid what could of happened with the odds being so bad...... Just remember in any of these series in which they expect a team to win 70% of the time each game...one series loss by doubling up each game will take down any system... GL this weekend...

[doubledime]

Thanks G I think you were correct in trying to project the lines of all 3 games in the series. Over the years when I was just doing this for myself, I concentrated on which team I projected to win, and if they were a big price on the first game I cut back 1/2 on my unit. This is what got me in trouble with St. Louis. The first game was not a high price, but the next 2 were over -200. Fortuately they finally won, but you are correct, one series loss can do serious damage. Maybe my memory is failing me, but I think the prices are higher this year on these second and third games. Perhaps the books are adjustmenting to some of these chase systems.

On another forum I came accross a thread awhile back where the guy chased only certain dogs. Not sure what happened, since I think he quit posting. It did seem to make some sense. I may back test something like that over the winter.

Good luck this weekend.

[G's pks]

Thanks G I think you were correct in trying to project the lines of all 3 games in the series. Over the years when I was just doing this for myself, I concentrated on which team I projected to win, and if they were a big price on the first game I cut back 1/2 on my unit. This is what got me in trouble with St. Louis. The first game was not a high price, but the next 2 were over -200. Fortuately they finally won, but you are correct, one series loss can do serious damage. Maybe my memory is failing me, but I think the prices are higher this year on these second and third games. Perhaps the books are adjustmenting to some of these chase systems.

On another forum I came accross a thread awhile back where the guy chased only certain dogs. Not sure what happened, since I think he quit posting. It did seem to make some sense. I may back test something like that over the winter.

Good luck this weekend.

The dog idea will probably also work...but we will hit a higher percentage of winners with game #1 favs... More favs sweep series than dogs... Also a lot of time when a dog does win a game it is not until the second or third game... So the only other idea is a filter I use on and off no favs over -180.

[doubledime]

Friday August 6 Update

Dodgers A Play (1/2 unit due to price)
Detroit A Play
White Sox A Play (rare away play)

System YTD 38 - 1/2
Units YTD +27

Good luck to all

[G's pks]

Tough night.... My system hit a snag also tonight I went 1-3 with two bottom of the 9th walk off losses...

[doubledime]

Saturday August 7 Update

Ouch, 0-3 yesterday.

Dodgers B Play (1/2 unit due to price)
Detroit B Play
White Sox B Play

Good luck to all

[doubledime]

Sunday August 8 Update

The Dodgers and WSox win but we still have Detroit to go.

Detroit C Play

System YTD 39.5 - 1/2
Units YTD +28.5

Good luck to all

[G's pks]

GL with your "C" bet...I swept the board last night...3-0...means Sunday off...glad the Dodgers hit for you...hopefully you get Detroit today...will be rooting for you.

[doubledime]

Thanks G Enjoy your "day off"

[broadway6]

good luck DD...sorry to see you are risking cash on Detroit.