Memorial Day Weekend Starts This Chase

DJStroke · 08-08-10, 09:49 AM

hope DET hits...I just threw a unit on them, I like Porcello today

doubledime · 08-08-10, 05:32 PM

Detroit wins, finally!

Broadway, I agree Detroit is not my favorite team to to be betting, but it cleared my filters for the series and at least we never laid mega juice in any game. Remember this is a series system, not a game.

DJ, Actually, even though I played Detroit because it was a C play, I too thought they were the right price. Glad it came in for both of us and any who follow.

System YTD 40.5 - 1/2
Units YTD 29.5

Look for an update on Monday.

Good luck to all

doubledime · 08-09-10, 12:43 PM

Monday August 9 Update

Milwaukee A Play
Giants A Play
Angels A Play (1/2 unit due to price)

Tampa may have been rare away game play, however, as we write this Tuesday's pitcher for TB is undecided. We may update this post later in the day if we get more info on this.

System YTD 40.5 - 1/2
Units YTD 29.5

Good luck to all.

doubledime · 08-10-10, 10:42 AM

Tuesday August 10 Update

Giants and Angels win but we still have Milwaukee and we are adding the Padres.

Note: We have reached our goal of +30 units. Even if you did not play Milwaukee tonight, you'd be up just over 29 units. We are going to continue playing but, if anyone has been following since the beginning, you may want to protect your units and stop. Whatever your choice, best of luck always.

Milwaukee B Play
Padres A Play (1/2 unit due to price)

System YTD 42 - 1/2
Units YTD 31

Good luck to all

doubledime · 08-11-10, 06:44 AM

Wednesday August 11 Update

Padres win but Milwaukee goes to a C play.

After yesterday's loss our Milwaukee play has us minus approximately 4.5 units in that series. Tonight we are playing only 3 units on Milwaukee, since we picked up 2 units this week already. If Milwaukee wins we will be deducting 1 1/2 units from our YTD totals.

Milwaukee C Play (see above)

System YTD 42.5 - 1/2
Units YTD 31.5

Good luck to all

G's pks · 08-11-10, 09:47 AM

Good luck with your "C" bet... Not sure if you go past Sept 1st...but maybe avoid home teams under .500 and in the bottom ten overall...just a thought... Will be pulling for the Brewers ...could the D-backs one of the worst road teams sweep? Crazy time of the year be careful. I cut way back this time of year...listed two winners om my thread last night SD, and Atl but did not play them.

Might be a good time to cut back on amount of games or be very careful... G.

doubledime · 08-11-10, 02:29 PM

I really thought Milwaukee would take care of business the first game and certainly by the second game. I think your not playing home teams under .500 would be a good filter, and I plan to iincorporate even more filters next year so as to almost never going to a C play. After Sept. 1 can be tricky so I will stopping by then or within a week after Sept 1. Good luck on the upcoming weekend and congrats again on a good year for you.

doubledime · 08-12-10, 07:17 AM

Thursday August 11 Update

Milwaukee gave us our first full unit series loss of the year....

Those of you who kept your 30 units and stopped, as suggested a couple of posts ago, congratulations. For those who are still playing, at least the juice on Milwaukee was small and we only lost approximately 8 units. We hate losing and am sorry for the loss.

System YTD 42.5 - 1.5
Units YTD +23.5

No games today, back on Friday.

Good luck to all

G's pks · 08-12-10, 08:11 AM

I was very surprised when I saw you pick Milwaukee... Think of it this way...you have had a lot of "C" bets lately... The odds just got stacked against you... Sooner or later one would lose again...

But hey that is only your second series lose in what 30 series or more not bad... stick with it...

doubledime · 08-12-10, 03:53 PM

Thanks G, for some reason I am having way more C plays than in past years, but I guess it just shows that you have to make adjustments..... Reminds me of a book I once read..... "Who Moved My cheese".

Fortunately I still have time to hit my +30 units.........again.
BOL this coming weekend.

doubledime · 08-13-10, 04:05 PM

Friday August 13 Update

OK, OK, we know it's Friday the 13th, but we're not concerned, or supersticious, so we have a big card tonight even though we really thought we would be in "protect" mode. We feel every play tonight should win tonight and not even worry about a B play. But.....just in case, we also feel strong about tomorrow if any have go to a B play. Having said all that, we are hoping we did not "wammy" ouselves, and we have the following plays, but as always, BE CAREFULL.

Atlanta A Play
Houston A PlayA
St. Louis A Play (1/2 unit due to price)
Tampa Bay A Play (1/2 unit due to price)
Texas A Play (Good price and we feel they win one)
White Sox A Play
Minnesota A Play

System YTD 42.5 - 1.5
Units YTD +23.5

Good luck to all

doubledime · 08-14-10, 06:55 AM

Saturday August 14 Update

Well, we won 6 out of 7, losing only our TB 1/2 unit play.

Tampa Bay B Play* (remember this started as a 1/2 unit play)

*We are going to play today's B play for just the amount we lost yesterday, no profit, because if we win we are still up approximately 5.5 units for this weekend, and are protecting our YTD profit.

System YTD 48 - 1.5
Units YTD +29

Good luck to all

doubledime · 08-15-10, 09:02 AM

Sunday August 15 Update

Tampa Bay wins. We do not pick up any units with the win, but we did pick up 5.5 units for the weekend.

No plays today

System YTD 48.5 - 1.5
Units YTD +29

Back on Monday

Best of luck to all

doubledime · 08-16-10, 03:40 PM

Monday August 16 Update

No plays today

System YTD 48.5 - 1.5
Units YTD +29

Good luck to all

doubledime · 08-17-10, 10:14 AM

Tuesday August 17 Update

Atlanta A Play
St. Louis A Play
Yankees A Play

System YTD 48.5 - 1.5
Units YTD +29

Good luck to all

doubledime · 08-18-10, 06:48 AM

[COLOR=#000000! important]Wednesday August 18 Update

Atlanta and the Yankees win.[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#000000! important]
St. Louis B Play

System YTD 50.5 - 1.5
Units YTD +31

Good luck to all[/COLOR]

doubledime · 08-19-10, 06:24 AM

Thursday August 19 Update

The first time we deviate and play a 2 game series we lose it. That's why it's so important to stick with the system. Looking at the matchups we felt the Cards should have won the A play and certainly the B play, but they didn't. Depending on the lines that you got, this series cost us 9 units. Twice now we have been above our +30 units and that was our goal. There is still time to reach + 30 again and that's when we'll stop.

System YTD 50.5 - 2.5
Units YTD +22

Good luck to all

G's pks · 08-19-10, 07:49 AM

Tough series loss for you...thought you were going to pull it out in 9th...
You have to have set filters...bouncing around you are having a lot of "C" games(high risk) and this is your third series loss... I think what you should do if you have to take the extremely heavy juice favs like the Cards...which should have won a game...because it was a two game series maybe call it an unofficial series pick...or do not list the over -225 series games at all.... I try to filter out as many of the above -200 teams as I can the risk/reward is not worth it... If I include one they better have extreme dominance over the other team...

GL with your next series... I am way...way overdue for another loss...so it is interesting trying to be cautious trying to avoid it...

doubledime · 08-19-10, 10:48 AM

Originally posted by G's pks

Tough series loss for you...thought you were going to pull it out in 9th...
You have to have set filters...bouncing around you are having a lot of "C" games(high risk) and this is your third series loss... I think what you should do if you have to take the extremely heavy juice favs like the Cards...which should have won a game...because it was a two game series maybe call it an unofficial series pick...or do not list the over -225 series games at all.... I try to filter out as many of the above -200 teams as I can the risk/reward is not worth it... If I include one they better have extreme dominance over the other team...

GL with your next series... I am way...way overdue for another loss...so it is interesting trying to be cautious trying to avoid it...

Both days the Cards line went up from the open, and yesterday it went from about -220 to -300. I did not figure that on Tuesday when I made the Cards a series play. I guess my problem is, in the past I just did this system for myself and if I tweeked it, nobody cared and it did not matter to anyone else. As you know, once you start releasing plays for the forum it adds a different dimension. I'm not sure how many follow, maybe none, but one thing is for sure, when I lose, I not only do I lose money, but it's out there for the world to see.

As always, thanks for the support, and I said in your thread, your taking the time to answer all the questions posters ask you is very commendable. BOL the rest of the year

G's pks · 08-19-10, 05:12 PM

Originally posted by doubledime

Both days the Cards line went up from the open, and yesterday it went from about -220 to -300. I did not figure that on Tuesday when I made the Cards a series play. I guess my problem is, in the past I just did this system for myself and if I tweeked it, nobody cared and it did not matter to anyone else. As you know, once you start releasing plays for the forum it adds a different dimension. I'm not sure how many follow, maybe none, but one thing is for sure, when I lose, I not only do I lose money, but it's out there for the world to see.

As always, thanks for the support, and I said in your thread, your taking the time to answer all the questions posters ask you is very commendable. BOL the rest of the year

There are people watching/playing your system believe me... I think if you do this again next year...you should list the risk/reward in dollars or at least show what the amounts represent... Sometimes people like to see what the amount of risk should be after the "A" play...well good luck reaching your goal the rest of the year...just do not force it... Even though you started the picks a little later in the season I know it is an enjoyable thread...keep up the good work...

doubledime · 08-20-10, 03:30 PM

Originally posted by G's pks

There are people watching/playing your system believe me... I think if you do this again next year...you should list the risk/reward in dollars or at least show what the amounts represent... Sometimes people like to see what the amount of risk should be after the "A" play...well good luck reaching your goal the rest of the year...just do not force it... Even though you started the picks a little later in the season I know it is an enjoyable thread...keep up the good work...

Thanks for the good words G. Good idea with listing the risk/reward #s for next year. I'll have some time over the winter to tweet it even more. BOL to you the rest of the year.

doubledime · 08-20-10, 03:39 PM

Friday August 20 Update

Phillies A Play (1/2 unit play on the run line. Tomorrow, if we need it, Phillies should be only -110)
Florida A Play (They should win tonight, but if we need it, they will be a good price -110 also)
NYY A Play (1/2 unit due to price)
Detroit A Play

System YTD 50.5 - 2.5
Units YTD +22

Good luck to all

doubledime · 08-21-10, 11:06 AM

Saturday August 21 Update

Florida and Detroit all win!

Phillies B Play (yesterday was RL today ML)
NYY B Play (remember this is a 1/2 unit play)

System YTD 52.5 - 2.5
Units YTD +24

Good luck to all

doubledime · 08-22-10, 10:49 AM

Sunday August 22 Update

Yankees win to complete that series. Phillies lose which takes us to a C play. Here is what we are going to do. Since Philly was a 1/2 unit play, and we played the run line on the A play and the line on the B play was -110, we are only down a bit over 2 units on this series. With the heavy line today, we are only going to play what we have lost on this series today, and if it wins, we are even for this series, if it loses, we are down approximately 5 units.

Phillies C Play (see above)

System YTD 53 - 2.5
Units YTD +24.5

Good luck to all

doubledime · 08-23-10, 05:40 PM

Monday Agust 23 Update

Sorry for the late post.

Well, Philly wins and we end up plus for the weekend.

Phillies A Play
Detroit A Play
Boston A Play (1/2 unit due to price)

System YTD 53 - 2.5
Units YTD +24.5

Good luck to all

doubledime · 08-24-10, 10:19 AM

Tuesday August 24 Update

Detroit and Boston win, those series are over.

Phillies B Play

System YTD 53.5 - 2.5
Units YTD +26

Good luck to all

doubledime · 08-25-10, 08:03 AM

Wednesday August 25 Update

Phillies C Play

Best of luck to all

G's pks · 08-25-10, 08:26 AM

If you were following this series...what would your risk/reward be on a "C" bet at this point...especially today on a -330 fav? Guessing around 20-21 units to win 6 or 7....that is an estimate... and that would be just to break even...

I think Philly should win...but are you risking your whole years winnings basically... Or are you just experimenting? Doubt too many are following these odds!

I ended my thread for the year...but noticed you are running into "C" bets every single grouping be careful! One loss with these gigantic juice favs will wipe out all your profits shown here!

Would like to hear your strategy here before the game and GL...especially if you are risking over 20 units just to break even...or win 1 unit...

doubledime · 08-25-10, 10:29 AM

Way too many C plays for my taste. In an earlier post, I said reaching 30 units was my goal, and have reached that twice. I should have ended the season at either of those two times. This may very well be my last series either way.

My strategy is that I know that over the years this has worked for me. Though the risk/reward ratio is way off, I have to keep the confidence in what's worked. "I brought this lady to the dance.... I'm going to dance with her"

Thanks for always being the voice of reason. Good luck to you in the upcoming FB season

G's pks · 08-25-10, 02:51 PM

Here is how I saw it when I reviewed your pick...

Your "A" was -150(and this would be catching just about the lowest odds available) so 1.50 units to win 1...lost

So your "B" would be to win 1.5 units, plus 1 unit correct?

That was appx. - 260 so... that would be 6.5 units to win 2.5 correct? And that lost...so now with your "C" your goal would be to win the 6.5 lost and one ....7.5 units right?

Ok at -330...(again if you caught it at low of day... you have to win 7.5 units at this point to show a unit win right?

So...lets see...330 to win each unit would be....330 x 7, plus 1.65 to win the .5 of a unit.

So... actually it would be even more!!!

It would be 24.75 units to win 7.5 units..

All this to win a unit...

You said my math was way off....let me know what you were thinking here? It appears actually my estimate was too low! Maybe run through this series and show how hopefully you end up winning a unit based on these odds..Any way you stack it...at this point your odds would be 1/3 at best!!!

Again not saying at all the Phillies lose as a -330 to -345 favorite...but showing the importance of posting actual risk reward for people to understand...

doubledime · 08-25-10, 08:46 PM

Ouch.... Phillies lose, and yes, it leaves us about even for the year. As I mentioned in an earlier post, our goal was to win 30 units. We did reach that goal, and hopefully some of you stopped at that time. We chose to continue. That's it for season. We will take the off season to tweek our system and add more filters. I'd like to thank all for your support, especially G, and wish we could have ended on a positive note. Until next season, good luck to all!

G's pks · 08-25-10, 09:01 PM

Originally posted by doubledime

Ouch.... Phillies lose, and yes, it leaves us about even for the year. As I mentioned in an earlier post, our goal was to win 30 units. We did reach that goal, and hopefully some of you stopped at that time. We chose to continue. That's it for season. We will take the off season to tweek our system and add more filters. I'd like to thank all for your support, especially G, and wish we could have ended on a positive note. Until next season, good luck to all!

Tough loss...as I warned you...you were toting the line with way to many "C" bets and the biggest one is the one that got you...

I still say an "A", "B" than back to "A" style of betting is the best way to survive... The "A" bet is always just the start...the "B" bet sucks you in...and the "C" bet means way to much! That is why I always adjust back to the "A" amount on the "C" bet...

Honestly its the only way to survive take the weight off the "C" bet... Now you can see why I called it last weekend...the books get to suck some dollars back in... I see quite a few upsets tonight...

Well sorry you ended on a bad note...but its in the area of money management I would work...especially the "C" games...your picks were fine..take care... Will see you in the other forums...

grecycle99 · 08-26-10, 08:50 AM

hi doubledime,

tough loss

do you have something for other sports?

thanks

doubledime · 08-26-10, 09:17 AM

Thanks G and 99. Next year for forum purposes I will be taking your advise G, on the C plays. If one does their homework most wins should be A or B. 99, for the last 2 years I have developed a NHL system which I may post this year. Good luck to all.