1. #1
    SteveKerrsJunk
    SteveKerrsJunk's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-25-13
    Posts: 2,557
    Betpoints: 353

    Lotte Giants/Kia Tigers series

    This has been a long anticipated series for me. I have been waiting for this series for several weeks now and am ready to make some large plays on the home team in this one. Let's take a look back at the previous 6 match-ups this season.

    Game 1 9-2 @ Kia
    Game 2 6-0 @ Kia
    Game 3 6-1 @ Kia
    Game 4 7-2 @ Kia
    Game 5 11-2 @ Kia
    Game 6 7-3 @ Kia

    On the surface it doesn't exactly look promising losing the first 6 match-ups by a combined score of 46-10. But let's take a look at some of the positives. Giants are at home now and are also playing much better baseball than when they met the previous two times. Lotte has been exceptionally bad on the road while playing very solid baseball at home. Likewise, Kia has been a strong home team, while being a mediocre road team so far this season.

    5 KIA 41 23 18 0 0.561 5.5 L1 13-7-0 10-11-0
    6 LOTTE 41 20 21 0 0.488 8.5 L1 12-5-0 8-16-0

    The pitching match-up tonight favors Aaron Brooks (3-2 3.00 era) and Kia, but Jun Won Seo is 3-1 with a 3.75 and a solid pitcher in his own right.

    Lotte +1.5 -119 2.5 units
    Lotte ML +138 1.5 units

    Will be right back here tomorrow win or lose to bet on Lotte again tomorrow. BOL with your plays.

  2. #2
    earthx1
    earthx1's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-04-18
    Posts: 60
    Betpoints: 222

    Great Call on the game. Great insight. Help with your picking a winner. Always great to see your picks. You might be on to something with this series.
    Earthx1

  3. #3
    HomeRun35
    HomeRun35's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-09-20
    Posts: 48
    Betpoints: 153

    How good or bad a team plays at home/away over a 20 game sample size is irrelevant. Home/away splits that diverge from league average are just noise the vast majority of the time

  4. #4
    SteveKerrsJunk
    SteveKerrsJunk's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-25-13
    Posts: 2,557
    Betpoints: 353

    Quote Originally Posted by HomeRun35 View Post
    How good or bad a team plays at home/away over a 20 game sample size is irrelevant. Home/away splits that diverge from league average are just noise the vast majority of the time
    That makes sense. My play was more based on their previous match-ups than the H/A splits.

  5. #5
    SteveKerrsJunk
    SteveKerrsJunk's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-25-13
    Posts: 2,557
    Betpoints: 353

    Quote Originally Posted by earthx1 View Post
    Great Call on the game. Great insight. Help with your picking a winner. Always great to see your picks. You might be on to something with this series.
    Earthx1
    Thanks Earth, albeit a bit lucky.

  6. #6
    SteveKerrsJunk
    SteveKerrsJunk's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-25-13
    Posts: 2,557
    Betpoints: 353

    Got incredibly lucky on this one. Down 3-0 and being 1 hit going to the bottom of the 8th, somehow Lotte pulled out the comeback with a 3 run ninth to walk it off.

    In today's match-up we see the legend Dan Straily (1-2, 2.10 ERA, 1 WHIP, 62 K/17 BB) face up against Min Woo Lee (3-2, 5.12 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 30 K/15 BB). Dan Straily has been tremendous, but has not been able to get any run support so far this season. His last 5 starts:

    8 IP, 2 ER, 12 K/0 BB. ND
    7.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K/2 BB. ND
    7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K/0 BB. ND
    5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K/1 BB. ND
    6.1 IP, 0 ER, 7 K/4 BB. ND

    Kia however did rough up Straily 6 starts ago, where he surrendered 5 runs and took the loss.

    For Kia Min Woo Lee has been roughed up a bit in his last 3 starts against 3 powerful offenses in NC, Doosan and KT.

    5 IP, 3 ER, 2 K/2 BB. ND
    3.1 IP, 7 ER, 2 K/1 BB. L
    6.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K, 1 BB. L

    Dan Straily has been great all year and I am backing him and Lotte again at home. 4 plays tonight on the game.
    Lotte ML -170 1.7 units
    Lotte RL +106 .5 units
    Lotte first 5 -0.5 -132 .5 units
    Kia Under 3.5 runs -110 .5 units

    BOL tonight with your plays.
    Last edited by SteveKerrsJunk; 06-24-20 at 01:51 AM.

  7. #7
    earthx1
    earthx1's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-04-18
    Posts: 60
    Betpoints: 222

    Quote Originally Posted by SteveKerrsJunk View Post
    Got incredibly lucky on this one. Down 3-0 and being 1 hit going to the bottom of the 8th, somehow Lotte pulled out the comeback with a 3 run ninth to walk it off.

    In today's match-up we see the legend Dan Straily (1-2, 2.10 ERA, 1 WHIP, 62 K/17 BB) face up against Min Woo Lee (3-2, 5.12 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 30 K/15 BB). Dan Straily has been tremendous, but has not been able to get any run support so far this season. His last 5 starts:

    8 IP, 2 ER, 12 K/0 BB. ND
    7.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K/2 BB. ND
    7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K/0 BB. ND
    5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K/1 BB. ND
    6.1 IP, 0 ER, 7 K/4 BB. ND

    Kia however did rough up Straily 6 starts ago, where he surrendered 5 runs and took the loss.

    For Kia Min Woo Lee has been roughed up a bit in his last 3 starts against 3 powerful offenses in NC, Doosan and KT.

    5 IP, 3 ER, 2 K/2 BB. ND
    3.1 IP, 7 ER, 2 K/1 BB. L
    6.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K, 1 BB. L

    Dan Straily has been great all year and I am backing him and Lotte again at home. 4 plays tonight on the game.
    Lotte ML -170 1.7 units
    Lotte RL +106 .5 units
    Lotte first 5 -0.5 -132 .5 units
    Kia Under 3.5 runs -110 .5 units

    BOL tonight with your plays.
    Thanks for the in depth analysis. Very nicely done. Good luck with your plays. Hope you get the sweep.
    Earthx1

Top