Reverend's 2010 MLB

[DMB40]

why no stl series play?

[balls2wall]

G-

You are on point with what I'm saying. As I stated I played Houston for all three games as the system calls for. I did in fact question the pick in the beginning of the series. I made the decision to play it out, and if you would go back through the thread you would see how I was bashed for questioning the pick. I think if I would have framed the question in this manner--Who is willing to risk app. $1900 to win $175 (that is my unit size for a series at this stage) on the Houston Astros? It might have had a different meaning. Again, I made the choice to play this series, this is not sour grapes bitching about a loss. Rev and G welcome POSITIVE comments, questions, and suggestions. This is just a reminder of the 'core principles' of the system.

Another point you hit on is the 'goal' was to pick app 150-200 series for the year and we already have app. 55 in the first 3 weeks. Again, maybe this one is an example of being too aggressive and pushing. Hopefully, this will be a reality check and get us back on track.

I think I remember the exchange you are talking about. I don't think you really got bashed. I think you questioned why you were playing them after the A game or something and you got a few responses because people don't want this thread to turn into one of the usual whine and bitch fests that normally occur. You didn't go there, but I think that is what was trying to be cut off at the pass.

Like you said, I think if you would have raised concern in a different manner, or before the series started it would have gotten a better response.

REV has always asked for input so let's all raise concerns and bring good information to the table before these series start. Also raise them in the middle if you think you should be bailing out or reducing risk.

I think you have been here since the beginning so hopefully you are still up a good bit.

good luck with the ones you play

[balls2wall]

which thread is this cash?

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-handicapping/422041-conservative-chase-system-back-season-long-winning-baseball-thread.html

[JVP3122]

Don't worry guys, Dodgers will finish the job tonight. They should play in AAA if they can't hit Moron, I mean Morton, LoL!

Hopefully for the chasers in the group you're right. Last night they opened at -255 at the Greek, and I was hesitant to get in on it then, and now that it's -300 I just can't afford that. I'll be looking at 7.5 units just to get back my 2.5 unit wager, and 10.5 to make a one-unit profit. I can't imagine going in for two like Rev, although if I were with you guys since the beginning of the season I'd probably be more open to following it. Good luck to all on the Dodgers, tonight!

[docvinny]

allen, check post 1408 for todays picks, gl

[Dre2109]

One quick question. If you take the -1 RL on the A bet to reduce juice, do you take the ML or the -1 RL on the B bet?

[G's pks]

e

May have been a strong lean based on Kershaw's Strike Out Record & Manny Ramirez Active. Unfortunately the Dodgers are in dire need of Manny's power at the plate. Desperation is the word to sum up L.A.'s mood swing offensively with no Run Support, their Pitching Duels can only hold up for so long.

robert the dodgers have been a disaster not going to cloud up this thread with negatives...but those are not reasons to be following a team in a chase! Sure once again they should win today but who knows stay with good teams...If you want stop in my thread and I will give you several reasons it should have been avoided... Also look at the risk you have exposed yourself to in game "B" 17/2?

Rev keep up the good work...I think Khaden made a strong point...stick to what has taken you this far... the original rules of the system... Do not be pressured which I have a feeling you have just to post a play to satisfy the hunger... It is a bump in the road guys...if you want perfection in a record...wait till the games are over and than make your choices...that is the only way anyone is perfect...

Long season boys hang in there...

[balls2wall]

If anyone played the HOU series and it totally killed your BR don't be afraid to consider dropping your unit size down. You may have to now after the loss anyway.


My BR is a lot bigger (2 and 3x or more) compared to what I have seen some people post here, but my unit size is probably half or less of what theirs is too. My BR isn't that big. Just saying in comparison to some it is and my unit size is tiny compared to theirs making my risk much less. If I lose a series it may end up costing me 5% of my BR.

Even with my small unit size I am still up a good bit and don't feel too much pressure on B and C bets, especially since I am reducing risk all I can with -1rl and such.

I have been using a lot of -1rl bets on the A game.

I have also dropped some B bets to win 25%, 50% or could even be to break even in the future.

Someone mentioned making the C bet on some series to just try to cut your losses in half or whatever.

If you get in a series you don't like don't be afraid to use some of these methods or others and cut your risk. You can always bail after game one for a unit or two loss as well.

We are all responsible for our own BR so let's not blindly follow anyone, but use all the information here to make our own best decisions.

let's keep this moving in the right direction

It is only one setback for those of you who played HOU. Keep your heads up and get some of it back this weekend.

[balls2wall]

One quick question. If you take the -1 RL on the A bet to reduce juice, do you take the ML or the -1 RL on the B bet?

I think he plays all FAV system plays on the -1rl


I would say on the other ones you would play ML on the B bet because if you push game two after a loss it would only leave you with one game to get the W and could cost you the series.

If it is high juice you could always play the B game to win half a unit or something.

A push on the A game would probably end the series unless the next two games look really good or if you could add the first game of their next series onto it.

[G's pks]

If anyone played the HOU series and it totally killed your BR don't be afraid to consider dropping your unit size down. You may have to now after the loss anyway.


My BR is a lot bigger (2 and 3x or more) compared to what I have seen some people post here, but my unit size is probably half or less of what theirs is too. My BR isn't that big. Just saying in comparison to some it is and my unit size is tiny compared to theirs making my risk much less. If I lose a series it may end up costing me 5% of my BR.

Even with my small unit size I am still up a good bit and don't feel too much pressure on B and C bets, especially since I am reducing risk all I can with -1rl and such.

I have been using a lot of -1rl bets on the A game.

I have also dropped some B bets to win 25%, 50% or could even be to break even in the future.

Someone mentioned making the C bet on some series to just try to cut your losses in half or whatever.

If you get in a series you don't like don't be afraid to use some of these methods or others and cut your risk. You can always bail after game one for a unit or two loss as well.

We are all responsible for our own BR so let's not blindly follow anyone, but use all the information here to make our own best decisions.

let's keep this moving in the right direction

It is only one setback for those of you who played HOU. Keep your heads up and get some of it back this weekend.

basically the same type of rules i mentioned in my thread under rules post #1 beginning of April... Protect your money guys...

[balls2wall]

My plays for Friday:

A STL 1.5U
A SF 1.5U
A NYY 1U
A BOS 1U
A TB 1U (2 Gms I think)

John

I am already on BOS too


Have NYY, STL and TB marked to get on so I will be on probably at least two of them as well

BOL

[Dre2109]

I think he plays all FAV system plays on the -1rl


I would say on the other ones you would play ML on the B bet because if you push game two after a loss it would only leave you with one game to get the W and could cost you the series.

If it is high juice you could always play the B game to win half a unit or something.

A push on the A game would probably end the series unless the next two games look really good or if you could add the first game of their next series onto it.

Thanks for the detailed explanation

[balls2wall]

Well...

It has been a rough 3 days of baseball! I dont have much else to say. The Houston series loss cost the system 12.4 Units.

I know for those who have been with me for the entire season, we have built a cushion, but I apologize for those of you who have recently starting tailing and are having to deal with this loss.

We have lots of baseball ahead of us, so stick with me and lets build up the bankroll!

Time for a bounce back REV

keep your nose to the grindstone

let me know if you need anything

BOL

[Jtru]

Lets turn this around today Rev.

[christyh7]

Good luck today!

[balls2wall]

Thanks for the detailed explanation

no problem Dre


glad to help

[SEAHAWKHARRY]

good luck today

[mister bee]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-h...ll-thread.html

thanks balls.

[reverend]

Friday April 30:


Series System:

B Bet: Dodgers (ML) 17 Units to Win 6.8 Units (2 Units Profit)

A Bet: Yankees (ML) 4.5 Units to Win 2 Units

A Bet: Braves (ML) 3.4 Units to Win 2 Units

A Bet: Florida (ML) 4.4 Units to Win 2 Units


Situational System:

A Bet: Boston (ML) 3.1 Units to Win 2 Units

A Bet: Tampa Bay (ML) 4.2 Units to Win 2 Units


FAV System:

B Bet: Dodgers (-1 RL) 10 Units to Win 5.57 Units


*For those who were wondering about the Cardinals, I wanted to say that I had 3 teams "make" it through my filters, but I decided to trim down the list. With that said, I had the Cardinals, Giants and Twins as 3 plays as well. With 7 posted plays above, I wanted to trim the list a bit, and these were the 3 plays that were cut. But, I do feel strongly that all 3 will produce a series win.

[sycoogtit]

For the guys who are wondering what to do now because of the last few days, the answer is really quite simple. STICK WITH IT! This is a chase and all chases go through rough patches. The dumbest thing to do now would be to quit. Adjust your units based on your BR and continue with the system.

i must admit, by doing this thread, i have felt even more weight during this 3 day stretch because i know that it is not just me losing money

Thanks for all the hard work rev. I feel bad that you've been worrying about all of us. We're the ones who are choosing to follow you -- if we can't handle losing then we shouldn't be gambling.

I do have one question for you about what khaden said in this post. http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-h...ml#post4327485 Is there something we're missing or are we really playing a few games that don't fit the system? Either way it's no big deal and we should point these out when they happen as G suggested.

[Kuhlio]

Thanks for the plays Rev! Lets get em!

[OLBG Sports]

Friday April 30:


Series System:

B Bet: Dodgers (ML) 17 Units to Win 6.8 Units (2 Units Profit)

A Bet: Yankees (ML) 4.5 Units to Win 2 Units

A Bet: Braves (ML) 3.4 Units to Win 2 Units

A Bet: Florida (ML) 4.4 Units to Win 2 Units


Situational System:

A Bet: Boston (ML) 3.1 Units to Win 2 Units

A Bet: Tampa Bay (ML) 4.2 Units to Win 2 Units


FAV System:

B Bet: Dodgers (-1 RL) 10 Units to Win 5.57 Units


*For those who were wondering about the Cardinals, I wanted to say that I had 3 teams "make" it through my filters, but I decided to trim down the list. With that said, I had the Cardinals, Giants and Twins as 3 plays as well. With 7 posted plays above, I wanted to trim the list a bit, and these were the 3 plays that were cut. But, I do feel strongly that all 3 will produce a series win.

GL in your card today!!!

[Manaconda]

good luck this weekend everyone!

[reverend]

For the guys who are wondering what to do now because of the last few days, the answer is really quite simple. STICK WITH IT! This is a chase and all chases go through rough patches. The dumbest thing to do now would be to quit. Adjust your units based on your BR and continue with the system.



Thanks for all the hard work rev. I feel bad that you've been worrying about all of us. We're the ones who are choosing to follow you -- if we can't handle losing then we shouldn't be gambling.

I do have one question for you about what khaden said in this post. http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-h...ml#post4327485 Is there something we're missing or are we really playing a few games that don't fit the system? Either way it's no big deal and we should point these out when they happen as G suggested.

2 Thoughts:

If you are new to the thread or your bankroll has taken a hit over the past 3 brutal days, then like was said above, adjust your unit size so you can stay in the game. We are not even through the first month of the season, so please make sure you are not playing "over your head" in terms of unit size. We have plenty more series to build our rolls. Commit to this thing for the next 4 months and you will be very glad you did come the end of August.


I wanted to address Khaden's post as well. He brought up a great point and like he said, he has been with me from the preseason. I must admit that he is 100% correct. G also mentioned this in an above post, but like many of you know, I am new to the forum world, and with our quick success in this thread, I feel as if I started "reaching" on a few plays. Houston is one of those plays. If you look at that series, you have 2 teams that are in the bottom third of the league and it should not have been a system play. What I was looking at was more of a momentum play, which should not fit in these systems. Houston had won 8 of 10 coming into the series and the Reds had lost 8 of 11 coming in. I do apologize for reaching guys! It wont happen again, and PLEASE...if you feel that a posted play may not fit the system we should be playing, please ask. That is the purpose of this thread.

Again, thanks for all the encouragement so far this season. I think we have a great thing going in here with all the contributors, and I know we have a valuable system in place. Lets stay disciplined and keep winning!

[sixersbbiv]

Gl on your picks

[Echofox]

I would suggest we recoup our losses by good teams like Yankees, Rays, Padres and Cardinals...

This is exactly what I'll be doing minus the Padres. I won with them yesterday and am ending it there. I'm gonna do it a bit aggressivly and divide up the lost units from the Dodgers/Astro's over th other three teams and play -RL on all 3 for todays games anyway. And then chase what's necessary from there, which with any luck will be none. But were talking 3 of the best teams in MLB right now. If I go broke on this so be it but I'd side bet I don't. Degenerate?

[sycoogtit]

Word. Thanks for the clarification rev. Let's kill it today.

[reverend]

Thats the plan!

[Lion4Life]

Good luck everybody!

[dlunc3]

2 Thoughts:

If you are new to the thread or your bankroll has taken a hit over the past 3 brutal days, then like was said above, adjust your unit size so you can stay in the game. We are not even through the first month of the season, so please make sure you are not playing "over your head" in terms of unit size. We have plenty more series to build our rolls. Commit to this thing for the next 4 months and you will be very glad you did come the end of August.


I wanted to address Khaden's post as well. He brought up a great point and like he said, he has been with me from the preseason. I must admit that he is 100% correct. G also mentioned this in an above post, but like many of you know, I am new to the forum world, and with our quick success in this thread, I feel as if I started "reaching" on a few plays. Houston is one of those plays. If you look at that series, you have 2 teams that are in the bottom third of the league and it should not have been a system play. What I was looking at was more of a momentum play, which should not fit in these systems. Houston had won 8 of 10 coming into the series and the Reds had lost 8 of 11 coming in. I do apologize for reaching guys! It wont happen again, and PLEASE...if you feel that a posted play may not fit the system we should be playing, please ask. That is the purpose of this thread.

Again, thanks for all the encouragement so far this season. I think we have a great thing going in here with all the contributors, and I know we have a valuable system in place. Lets stay disciplined and keep winning!

Rev, do you think you could post the rules of what filters certain series into plays? for both the series system and the situational system? I have read a ton of posts and am interested in seeing how you chose your plays...If possible, if you have them, could you post the records of pass years using your systems? Thanks so much and look forward to joining in the thread and makin some money with you guy's!

[venture]

Don't know what rev's filters are so this might already be one. But what about looking at the rpi for deciding who the good home teams and bad road teams are. I know john Morrison uses this with his chase system. I'm not sure what Houston's and Cincinnati's rpi were prior to the sweep (obviously Houston's was higher and Cincinnati's was lower) but now they are Houston .474 and Cincinnati's is .493. So maybe only play the series were the team we are backing has a higher rpi than the other team by a certain amount (.01?,.025?) Just a thought. Here are today's picks rpi
LOS (.463) v Pit (446) +.017
NYY (561)v CWS(465) +.096
ATL(496)v Hou(474) +.022
FLA(505)v wash(506) -.001
Bos(510)v Bal(443) +.067
TB(546)v KC(485) +.061
Not saying we do this but i think it will be interesting to track over the next couple weeks. Any thoughts?
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/rpi

[JW Cash]

2 Thoughts:

If you are new to the thread or your bankroll has taken a hit over the past 3 brutal days, then like was said above, adjust your unit size so you can stay in the game. We are not even through the first month of the season, so please make sure you are not playing "over your head" in terms of unit size. We have plenty more series to build our rolls. Commit to this thing for the next 4 months and you will be very glad you did come the end of August.


I wanted to address Khaden's post as well. He brought up a great point and like he said, he has been with me from the preseason. I must admit that he is 100% correct. G also mentioned this in an above post, but like many of you know, I am new to the forum world, and with our quick success in this thread, I feel as if I started "reaching" on a few plays. Houston is one of those plays. If you look at that series, you have 2 teams that are in the bottom third of the league and it should not have been a system play. What I was looking at was more of a momentum play, which should not fit in these systems. Houston had won 8 of 10 coming into the series and the Reds had lost 8 of 11 coming in. I do apologize for reaching guys! It wont happen again, and PLEASE...if you feel that a posted play may not fit the system we should be playing, please ask. That is the purpose of this thread.

Again, thanks for all the encouragement so far this season. I think we have a great thing going in here with all the contributors, and I know we have a valuable system in place. Lets stay disciplined and keep winning!

One thing I do on my own 3 game chase sequences, Rev...is that when

a team qualifies for a series...I will not play them if they do not have

a winning pct of over .475.......


I think that would have filtered the Houston play out......

[doublej95]

I use the RPI to determine which of the series are a stronger play if I'm only wanting to do a couple of series. Always going with the highest RPI value, If Rev and G are on the same games it's a play for sure for me, when Rev as a few other series I tend to go for the higher RPI. But even with that anybody can get sweep so proper money management is one of the most important things.

[khaden]

OK, the Houston series is over and in less than (2) hours we make our first play on the next winning streak. Although it was a hit to everyone bank roll we have alot of new series starting today and can still have a profitable week despite the loss. I will be adding in the series with the Cards, Giants, and Twins as well. I think they are strong plays and fit within the system's original guidelines.

[JW Cash]

I have done a lot of experimenting with my different 3 game series regarding
the unit sizes...

I started with the normal A 1 unit
B 2 Unit
C 4 Unit


It was OK....but the stress of a C bet was not something I wanted to go thru



I then tried the A 1 Unit
B 2 Unit
C 1 Unit

Now I believe this is similiar to what G advocates, which is a very conservative
approach to the sequence...

This also is OK...takes the stress away from a pending C Bet....
If you do your homework correctly, a lot of 3 Game Series are won on the A and B Bet....so this conservative approach can be profitable..

HOWEVER, personally I cannot " stomach " a loss after a C Bet Win...lol....
I couldnt stand to look at my spreadsheet on a series that was a C Bet winner
and I put my " green " color on it to show a "win" and at the same time...see a red negative fiqure in the " results " column... Even it its a small loss...

I figured that if you get a C Bet winner....you should at the very least..be even
for that series.....

So taking into account that C bet losses do occur.....and WILL occur...

I am now presently doing the following unit sizes on 3 Game Series..( my own and Rev's)


A 1 Unit

B 1.5 Unit

C 2.5 Unit


If I win A Bet or B Bet, i make A profit....If I lose C bet...it is only 5 Units

For me.....I like this method.....

Now....the 5 Units loss on a C bet....are absorbed into future series.....series
that historically prove to be strong......

This money management strategy has worked for me......

You cannot get greedy in this .....coz Murphy's Law is right around the corner
just waiting to bite you in the ass.......


Ciao....