Reverend's 2010 MLB

[G's pks]

I don't understand why people freak out so much when a C Bet comes up. It's ok not to bet guys, looking for another game and going big on it is not always the best idea. Rev's and G's systems are very good and have been amazing so far this year and in that it gives everyone a false since that these systems can not lose and the C Bet loss the another night was just a fluke. I have said it before when you make your first bet on the A Bet have an idea what the series will cost going to a C Bet. If you don't like the match up tomorrow for the C Bets it's ok not to bet, their is alot of baseball left and many system series to play.

I agree but just a thought adjust your unit sizes down like JW suggested...you cannot expect people to want to bet 25 units to break even and if they lose be down 45 units! So I do understand what some are saying...

[JVP3122]

JW CASH I found it...you guys may want to get together with him and revise the betting/money management system... The red lights are coming up and yesterday I believe there was a play which did win in which you guys had a risk reward of 17 units to be up 2(dodgers). If rev decides he wants to revise you guys may want to look at the first post in my thread for some help and throw out some ideas... This is a winning thread...back the rev up and throw out some ideas The extremely heavy Favs are what causing the problems...you constantly need three wins to cover each loss due not only the odds but also the unit size...

Not sure how many of you would risk over 20 units just to break even...

Right. I think one thing that we can do to minimize our risk is to bet on the -1RL. Rev was talking about it and it might be the best idea in the heavy juice series.

[G's pks]

I don't know what to do.....

If you are up for the year protect your winnings...

[G's pks]

Right. I think one thing that we can do to minimize our risk is to bet on the -1RL. Rev was talking about it and it might be the best idea in the heavy juice series.

Well my system is completely different as I said and anyone following has zero risk this week unless they are making other bets... I will be back later maybe Rev will stop in...if he decides he wants us all to throw some ideas around seeing it is his thread... I will have some suggestions...

Guys just be careful.... winning or losing is not the issue at this point it is risk/reward....

[doublej95]

If you are up for the year protect your winnings...

I totally agree. Boston is the only C Bet I would have tomorrow, and I went with the series because I am playing a system based on the O's not sweeping anyone. With the pitching matchups tomorrow that I don't think gives the Red Sox's an edge I have no problems laying off. I would lay 22 to win 1, while laying off would be just -8.7 with so many series to go I can easily add .25 or .50 to my normal units over time. I did the same thing with the Houston series, stopped after B and added a small amount to St. Louis, Atlanta and the Yankees.

[Wade Dwayne]

tomorow is going to be a big day rev. Goodluk to you

[WiseGrumpy]

Angles, Cards and Twins look very good, what do you think REV?

[SkivChef]

Hate to say it but cards look good!

[scratbandit]

i will be following this thread with interest.

[Josu]

I didn't watch the game last night, could someone tell me if Bergesen and Matsuzaka were the starting pitchers in Orioles v. Red Sox?

[therber2]

JW CASH I found it...you guys may want to get together with him and revise the betting/money management system... The red lights are coming up and yesterday I believe there was a play which did win in which you guys had a risk reward of 17 units to be up 2(dodgers). If rev decides he wants to revise you guys may want to look at the first post in my thread for some help and throw out some ideas... This is a winning thread...back the rev up and throw out some ideas The extremely heavy Favs are what causing the problems...you constantly need three wins to cover each loss due not only the odds but also the unit size...

Not sure how many of you would risk over 20 units just to break even...

I agree with this quite a bit. G you have a good system going. Reverend, what I would suggest if you DO change anything is a two game chase only. If one goes to a third; I'd say take it, but from my experience; the fact that a bet has made its way to a C doesn't make it worth betting the farm. Anyways, just agreeing with G. You have some great stuff going here rev.

[therber2]

Angles, Cards and Twins look very good, what do you think REV?

Twins
Angels don't take them if you don't know how to spell their name. Nah, jk. I'm liking Detroit as a larger sized bet; many factors explained in my thread on that one plus...Verlander in. Great cleanup pitcher and great cleanup team, but go ahead and prove me wrong.

[bernardoincr]

scary favorites

rev- obviously your stats speak for themselves-up to this point.
i am terrified of the huge favorites i have seen here the past couple of weeks.
i'm okay with a chase system, there's a guy somewhere else
who is 329-0 betting martingale going to 7 games. i am
more comfortable because almost all games are -110 or better,
very few between -110 -130.
i do wish you all the success in the world, and if there is a way
if you are adjusting, to eliminate those gigantic favorites, i'd be
one happy follower. peace.

[BillAccpetor]

C-Bets sucks...

[balls2wall]

I believe it may be wise to fade Boston and their chalk this season or until the line makers adjust.
They suck. If they lose tonight I will probably play them again tomorrow but after that I'm done with them and may fade for the rest of season. What do you guys think?

This is the first time I have gone with them and only because of who they are playing.


I am locked in on the C bet


Thankfully the juice has been relatively low so if it doesn't win it won't hurt too bad.

[dlunc3]

Are the dodgers the FAV B bet today?

[fjordo]

rev- obviously your stats speak for themselves-up to this point.
i am terrified of the huge favorites i have seen here the past couple of weeks.
i'm okay with a chase system, there's a guy somewhere else
who is 329-0 betting martingale going to 7 games. i am
more comfortable because almost all games are -110 or better,
very few between -110 -130.
i do wish you all the success in the world, and if there is a way
if you are adjusting, to eliminate those gigantic favorites, i'd be
one happy follower. peace.

Where have you been following his plays?

[JVP3122]

This is the first time I have gone with them and only because of who they are playing.


I am locked in on the C bet


Thankfully the juice has been relatively low so if it doesn't win it won't hurt too bad.

Well I think that's part of why they were a play for the series. It's not that the Red Sox are actually any good right now, it's that the Orioles are just bad. If I remember correctly, the plan was to play the 3-5 teams to not get swept and the 3-5 worst teams to not sweep, or something like that. It's much easier with this series because of the juice. I had to jump off the Rays train, and I've got low amounts in some RL parlays to try and make a little extra cash. If they don't hit then I'm heading to the bank to get a little more cash to reload.

[balls2wall]

made STL my FAV sys C bet last night


not sure what I am going to to with TB yet

[JVP3122]

Take the loss. With the amount you'd need to lay just to break even, and the Rays going against Greinke today having not hit their average pitching, it just seems like too much. I'm staying away from this one.

[balls2wall]

Well I think that's part of why they were a play for the series. It's not that the Red Sox are actually any good right now, it's that the Orioles are just bad. If I remember correctly, the plan was to play the 3-5 teams to not get swept and the 3-5 worst teams to not sweep, or something like that. It's much easier with this series because of the juice. I had to jump off the Rays train, and I've got low amounts in some RL parlays to try and make a little extra cash. If they don't hit then I'm heading to the bank to get a little more cash to reload.

You are correct. I have been laying off a lot of these though where a bad team is playing a bad team (HOU, LAD series etc...).

I liked the pitching match ups here and am on the BAL fade train so far this year.

I like our chances today. Surely Boston can pull one out of this series. Either way I doubt I will be on them again for a while.



good luck with your parlays

[balls2wall]

Take the loss. With the amount you'd need to lay just to break even, and the Rays going against Greinke today having not hit their average pitching, it just seems like too much. I'm staying away from this one.

That is the way I am leaning early right now


need to look into everything here shortly...


if I do play it I think it will not be to win anything or even break even


it would probably be for partial recovery

[GGPLAYER]

What hurts is last week I thought I was being conservative and smart by skipping the Fla C bet and the Fav systems C bet but both won. So this week I stuck with Hou and now have Bos and TB staring me in the face. Scary times becaue this could end up being a very horrible week if both don't hit.

One question for you Rev is why have'nt Min been a play for you the last few series? From what I see I do not believe anyone has been able to sweep them all year so far. Another thing maybe to consider going forward is if a team like TB wins their 1st game of a 4 game set don't temp fate and start a new series all because there are 3 games left. I think it's just being a little greedy but hard to resist when TB was scoring like crazy and KC stinks.

[balls2wall]

TB has hurt the past few days


2 losses, but 4 losses in the chases since they were the FAV sys plays as well. I am staying with the FAV sys since it can be changed up, but prolly bailing on the TB series


I am considering making sure that the same team is not in more than one chase at a time, especially with such high juice and for multiple games (TB 1 game may have been ok).


I felt a bit uneasy having them in 2 series this time, but told myself not to be such a wuss so I went with it, LOL

[SolidDala]

If the C-bet is to risky and your risk to much out of BR, then just divide your excepted win unit into 3 or 5 and pump up the volume for the next 5 games! You don't need to win it all back in 1 game IF its to much. this is way better then playing RRL or RL!

Just my input on handling with it.. go get that money now!!

[reverend]

Saturday May 1:


Series System:

B Bet: Marlins (ML) 9.28 Units to Win 6.4 Units (2 Units Profit)


Situational System:

B Bet: Tampa Bay (ML) 16.4 Units to Win 6.2 (2 Units Profit)

B Bet: Boston (ML) 8.16 Units to Win 5.1 Units (2 Units Profit)


FAV System:

A Bet: Tampa Bay (-1 RL) 4 Units to Win 2 Units

Saturday May 1:

Chase Systems: 1-0 (+2 Units)

Pending Chases: 3

[reverend]

Sunday May 2:

C bets is on Tampa and Boston

FAV B bet is on the Cardinals


*Sorry for the quick posts. I am not able to be at a computer this weekend. I have been very busy.
*As G mentioned above, we have been talking about risk/reward going forward. There is will some changes in the money management aspect going forward
*Like I have said before, make sure you are comfortable placing these bets, if not, dont place them. You are in control of your bankrolll.

[diggnation+TRS]

on the cards 2x, and 0.5x on RL, bol to us all

[khaden]

Ggplayer made a great point regarding Tampa. Like everyone else I played it- however, like the Houston play, this is another example of us not staying within the system. This series was over when they won the first game. We were being greedy by trying to squeeze out another win. The 4th game just gives us the option of a D game if needed. It seemed like a solid play but again look where we today. Our lack of discipline has cost us big this week.

[chase1]

Your absolutely right Khaden. We were getting greedy and it's got us in a bind now. I don't know about you but when I bet TB back on Friday I didn't even look ahead to see that we would be facing Greinke if it went to a C-Bet. I know from here on out I am not going to try to get 2 wins on the same team out a the series.

[denn333]

hang in there..

[G's pks]

Guys like the rev said only place amounts you feel comfortable with... If these plays win or lose everyone comes on and says? Obviously most are not going to be risking 25 units to win 20 and a loss would mean down 45 units... A win would mean plus a couple units...that is it.... Once again should these teams win yes! Each game the odds become more and more and the units more and more...but could they lose ...yes! That is what has caused the overwheming unit amounts... Win/lose use your best judgement so you can still be around tomorrow.

It sounds like rev will be working on the system this week...no unit amounts listed for the plays...bet within your bankroll if up. If down I would bet small and try to get it back slowly over the next few months....


Risk/Reward... GL today everyone... I picked a good weekend to take off as I have a "C" bet too in my system...but it is at most a one unit play locking in a winning week.

[peterpan19]

GL guys

[G's pks]

Did anyone even figure out what the exact bets would be following the system guidelines and the risk/reward just to break even or be up a unit or two?

[doublej95]

C Bet on Tampa 33.9/22.6 @-150, 2 unit profit
C Bet on Boston 20.95/13.26 @-158, 2 unit profit