Reverend's 2010 MLB

[dlunc3]

what were the exact oringinal guidelines??

[mister bee]

I have done a lot of experimenting with my different 3 game series regarding
the unit sizes...

I started with the normal A 1 unit
B 2 Unit
C 4 Unit


It was OK....but the stress of a C bet was not something I wanted to go thru



I then tried the A 1 Unit
B 2 Unit
C 1 Unit

Now I believe this is similiar to what G advocates, which is a very conservative
approach to the sequence...

This also is OK...takes the stress away from a pending C Bet....
If you do your homework correctly, a lot of 3 Game Series are won on the A and B Bet....so this conservative approach can be profitable..

HOWEVER, personally I cannot " stomach " a loss after a C Bet Win...lol....
I couldnt stand to look at my spreadsheet on a series that was a C Bet winner
and I put my " green " color on it to show a "win" and at the same time...see a red negative fiqure in the " results " column... Even it its a small loss...

I figured that if you get a C Bet winner....you should at the very least..be even
for that series.....

So taking into account that C bet losses do occur.....and WILL occur...

I am now presently doing the following unit sizes on 3 Game Series..( my own and Rev's)


A 1 Unit

B 1.5 Unit

C 2.5 Unit


If I win A Bet or B Bet, i make A profit....If I lose C bet...it is only 5 Units

For me.....I like this method.....

Now....the 5 Units loss on a C bet....are absorbed into future series.....series
that historically prove to be strong......

This money management strategy has worked for me......

You cannot get greedy in this .....coz Murphy's Law is right around the corner
just waiting to bite you in the ass.......


Ciao....

that's some good, sound logic cash. makes total sense. it is a long season after all.

[chase1]

Quoted by Reverend:

"I feel as if I started "reaching" on a few plays. Houston is one of those plays. If you look at that series, you have 2 teams that are in the bottom third of the league and it should not have been a system play. What I was looking at was more of a momentum play, which should not fit in these systems. Houston had won 8 of 10 coming into the series and the Reds had lost 8 of 11 coming in. I do apologize for reaching guys! It wont happen again, and PLEASE...if you feel that a posted play may not fit the system we should be playing, please ask. That is the purpose of this thread."


Just a thought, but Atl and Hou are both at the very bottom of the league so isn't this the same mistake we made with Cinci and Hou but even worse? I just don't want us to be reaching because it's surely possible we could be looking at ATL as a C-bet come Sunday and that would be pretty similar to the situation we were just in with Houston.

[Echofox]

Cubs cash on the 'B' bet! Now when the Yanks, Rays, and Cards finish their opponent back to where I started before the Houston series + a nice few units!

[youngerthree]

Hey guys the Tampa and Kansas City series started yesterday. Is it still a play today even though Tampa won last night?

[incomeraise]

arent the yankees the biggest fav today?actually its tampa bay and not the dodgers?

[balls2wall]

great input guys


that is what this thread should be


everyone working together with ideas of how to improve, reduce risk etc...



So far I am on

NYY
TB
BOS
STL


just got home from work

cracking open a beer

may add one or two more series in a bit

need to look into FLA, MIN and maybe one more

let's start the weekend off right with several game 1 winners today

[chase1]

I believe he went by the opening lines or what they were at the time he posted. Last night when he posted it looked to be LAD-255, NYY-230 and TB-210

[incomeraise]

I believe he went by the opening lines or what they were at the time he posted. Last night when he posted it looked to be LAD-255, NYY-230 and TB-210

Ok make sense..i guess i ll stick with the dodgers then they better not do me wrong hahaah...

[balls2wall]

what were the exact oringinal guidelines??

dlunc, you keep asking this question and I am sorry you haven't gotten an answer


REV told me he was really busy a few days ago so I don't think he has had much time to answer questions.

If I knew what his filters were exactly off the top of my head I would help out, but I don't recall.

I am pretty sure you could find it in this thread or the original discussion thread before the season started. If I run across anything like that I will post it for you.

[G's pks]

Hard for the Rev to run 3 systems at once...this is what happened to me last year...the continual questions which were already answered in the thread...if the rules were just read first!

Good luck tonight Rev...guys on my system we cashed the Cubs "B"...

[balls2wall]

Hey guys the Tampa and Kansas City series started yesterday. Is it still a play today even though Tampa won last night?

He is starting over with a fresh 3 game chase.


I did the same with STL this week. I started a chase on game 1 and won, then game 2 and won then started another yesterday. I knew if I had to carry the ATL series over I had KC on deck. I am starting another with STL in this series, but will probably end it after 1 win.


The tb/kc series is a 4 gamer so there are still 3 left, but even if there weren't he probably would have started a new one if the first game of the next series was a good match up. He has also mentioned playing a 2 game series in that example if it was just a 3 game series instead of a 4, or if an A bet pushes.

[G's pks]

balls2wall,dlunc3, rev listed the guidelines for his systems...you may have to dig through thread to find them... Guys GL with all your system plays!

[khaden]

what were the exact oringinal guidelines??

I am not speaking for Rev, but he had "flexibility" within the system but it was basically

1. playing the top 3-5 teams at home to win one game of a 3 or 4 game series.
2. playing against the bottom 3-5 teams on the road.
3. situational plays as they came up such as a top team on the road playing a bottom team like the Yankees at Balt this week.

The top and bottom teams were determined by Rev, G, and others based off of numbers from last year and previous years. It is much more involved than this but this is a very general outline. Again Rev and G crunch the numbers but the teams can and will change as the season progresses.

Also, take the time go back and read all of the threads. The better everyone understands the system just makes the thread stronger which leads to more $$$$$$$$$$$. Which is the bottom line.

[JW Cash]

Quoted by Reverend:

"I feel as if I started "reaching" on a few plays. Houston is one of those plays. If you look at that series, you have 2 teams that are in the bottom third of the league and it should not have been a system play. What I was looking at was more of a momentum play, which should not fit in these systems. Houston had won 8 of 10 coming into the series and the Reds had lost 8 of 11 coming in. I do apologize for reaching guys! It wont happen again, and PLEASE...if you feel that a posted play may not fit the system we should be playing, please ask. That is the purpose of this thread."


Just a thought, but Atl and Hou are both at the very bottom of the league so isn't this the same mistake we made with Cinci and Hou but even worse? I just don't want us to be reaching because it's surely possible we could be looking at ATL as a C-bet come Sunday and that would be pretty similar to the situation we were just in with Houston.

Atlanta's winning pct is .364.....which means it would be at least, a risky play..

...wouldnt meet my filter on nothing under .475

Now I dont want to step on Rev's toes...its his thread and he has proven
himself to be a success....

But I am just throwing stuff out there..

.......... just sayin .........

[balls2wall]

balls2wall,dlunc3, rev listed the guidelines for his systems...you may have to dig through thread to find them... Guys GL with all your system plays!

yeah, I think they are here, but I don't really need them so I am not gonna kill myself looking for them


I think he is looking for more than what is in post #1

[khaden]

Hey this thread is seriously one of the best---everyone got a hard one up the you know what last night and there is not the usual bashing and negative BS that usually comes with that big of a loss.

Stay positive and lets move on to the new series!!!!!

[JW Cash]

Hard for the Rev to run 3 systems at once...this is what happened to me last year...the continual questions which were already answered in the thread...if the rules were just read first!

Good luck tonight Rev...guys on my system we cashed the Cubs "B"...

also cashed on the Cubs....but it was on a personal system I use

SALUD !!

[khaden]

....

Quoted by Reverend:

"I feel as if I started "reaching" on a few plays. Houston is one of those plays. If you look at that series, you have 2 teams that are in the bottom third of the league and it should not have been a system play. What I was looking at was more of a momentum play, which should not fit in these systems. Houston had won 8 of 10 coming into the series and the Reds had lost 8 of 11 coming in. I do apologize for reaching guys! It wont happen again, and PLEASE...if you feel that a posted play may not fit the system we should be playing, please ask. That is the purpose of this thread."


Just a thought, but Atl and Hou are both at the very bottom of the league so isn't this the same mistake we made with Cinci and Hou but even worse? I just don't want us to be reaching because it's surely possible we could be looking at ATL as a C-bet come Sunday and that would be pretty similar to the situation we were just in with Houston.

I thought the same thing, but Houston I think Houston falls under the teams to play against on the road. I personally am playing it-but will modify a B and certainly a C bet should Atl not win one until then.

[balls2wall]

Atlanta's winning pct is .364.....which means it would be at least, a risky play..

...wouldnt meet my filter on nothing under .475

Now I dont want to step on Rev's toes...its his thread and he has proven
himself to be a success....

But I am just throwing stuff out there..

.......... just sayin .........

I am staying away from them too, although they should pick up a win this series I would think.


stayed away from LAD too. Too much juice both games for me on a .364 team

[G's pks]

also cashed on the Cubs....but it was on a personal system I use

SALUD !!

[balls2wall]

Hey this thread is seriously one of the best---everyone got a hard one up the you know what last night and there is not the usual bashing and negative BS that usually comes with that big of a loss.

Stay positive and lets move on to the new series!!!!!

well said


hopefully there will be many more winners posted here the next few weeks to cushion against a future loss so maybe it will help keep the bashing down when the next loss occurs


as long as it stays in the black the whole year I don't think there can be too much bashing


if it dips into the red then all hell is gonna break loose in here

[balls2wall]

Pitching change!!!

Anyone on FLA

if you took listed pitchers there has been a pitching change so you need to re-bet it






edit...

actually that may have happened a long time ago so everyone probably already knows

just got home...

[chase1]

I thought the same thing, but Houston I think Houston falls under the teams to play against on the road. I personally am playing it-but will modify a B and certainly a C bet should Atl not win one until then.

I took it too but if ATL loses tonight I might not chase. I live here in Atlanta and our team is in such disaray. I can see where he might make it a pick more against Houston than for Atlanta but I just was wondering why he is taking this one. I guess I am a little gun-shy about it because it seems very similar to the Cinci-Houston series we just went through with two bottom teams. Hopefully we won't have to cross that bridge tomorrow and they kick ass tonight.

[mizzoujohn]

My plays for Friday:

A STL 1.5U
A SF 1.5U
A NYY 1U
A BOS 1U
A MINN 1U
A TB 1U (2 Gms I think)
A FLA .5U

John

Just made some modifications to tonight's card. See above. The card is 7.5U, and my bankroll is 44U, so thats 17% of my roll on the A bets. Too much, IMO. Hopefully it doesn't bite me in the you-know-what. I really liked a lot of these series, though.


John

[allison13]

gonna be a good night tonight

[JW Cash]

well said


hopefully there will be many more winners posted here the next few weeks to cushion against a future loss so maybe it will help keep the bashing down when the next loss occurs


as long as it stays in the black the whole year I don't think there can be too much bashing


if it dips into the red then all hell is gonna break loose in here

People who bash....are losers........just ignore them....

If you reply to them...then then hang around.......ignore them.....

[whatsgood5]

good luck today guys

[whatsgood5]

Goin' big on the Braves myself

[mizzoujohn]

I haven't figured out why everyone is so hot on the Braves yet... they have lost 9 in a row, after all. Good luck, though, hope it hits. I passed on it, seems like a bunch of safer plays today.
John

[Echofox]

I haven't figured out why everyone is so hot on the Braves yet... they have lost 9 in a row, after all. Good luck, though, hope it hits. I passed on it, seems like a bunch of safer plays today.
John

I am with you sir

[chase1]

I haven't figured out why everyone is so hot on the Braves yet... they have lost 9 in a row, after all. Good luck, though, hope it hits. I passed on it, seems like a bunch of safer plays today.
John

I don't think everyone is, but Revs got an A Bet on them so they are a topic. It's risky I will give you that!

[G's pks]

Good luck tonight Rev... I got a much needed win on my system "B" bet on Cubbies and decided to take the night off after I spent all morning working on my series picks and posting them. Needed a break after watching Cubs game...

Hopefully you guys have a good night with all of your plays...

[TRAKKER]

JW - When you say 1 unit 1.5 units and 2.5 units, is that risk or to win? Also what percent of bankroll is 1 unit?

[JW Cash]

JW - When you say 1 unit 1.5 units and 2.5 units, is that risk or to win? Also what percent of bankroll is 1 unit?

I take my total bank and divide into 4 segments.....


I will take 3% of a segment as a unit....

4 separate " banks" gives me more flexibilty in what I do...

The investment is to Win...not risk.......but on huge moneylines...I will use -1 RL on baseball....

As far as wagering To Win versus To Risk....I just feels as to the eventual bottom line....it alls evens out.......

Hope this helps Trakker...