rev your a great capper BOL with the rest of the season ill be keepin a check on this thread for your plays
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I'm also very confident for C Bet ^^Comment -
I'm with you Rev, no complaining from me this time!
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BOL guysComment -
GL Guys!
If the juice high, I don't play "towin", just using "risk" option. For example, if odds are -200, I'm risking 100$ to win 50. Always keep stakes low in First Chase because big favourites can lose first game. Specially, it happens very often in NYY games.
I'm confident with Astros too. Oswalt owns Reds.. I know Astros are horrible but their offence gets better everyday. They scored 2 runs tuesday, 4 runs yesterday. Therefore, they will score 6 runs tonight, LoL! Let's cash it boys!
Best of luck Rev!Comment -
If odds are above -200 I will stick with the -1RL on the first game of a series... How often have I losed with a team, which was over favored... Get rid of the vegas juice!Comment -
Nice pick and info.Comment -
8 points your way rev. Thanks for the plays.Comment -
So some series start today. The Rays and Dodgers look like good series plays, even though they're pretty juicy today. I like the Cubs as a series play, too. I'm thinking about the Padres at home against the Brewers, but I'm not sure about it because I can't get a read on the Brewers. What do you think, Rev (or G)?Comment -
Rev, like the Tampa & Dodgers picks. I also like the Padres at home against Milw. Any particular reason the Padres didn't make the cut? the odds of Milw going there and sweeping them are extremely low.Comment -
Brewers lost yesterday against Pirates... Padres should win easy today.Comment -
Originally posted by BillAccpetor
Hard lean on San Diego here. Ride the Padres thru the next 3 Series:
- Home Milwaukee 4/29 - 5/2
- Home Colorado 5/3 - 5/5
- Away Houston 5/7 - 5/9Comment -
I know the Brewers lost against the Pirates, but this is also the same team that outscored the Pirates 36-1 in a three-game set in Pittsburgh a week and a half ago. That's what makes me cautious about them.Originally posted by BillAccpetorComment -
Originally posted by reverend
What do you use to determine the TOP FAV of the day? I have Tampa as the top opening line?Comment -
Instead of CUBS I will start a new series with the TWINS... Later it depends on the earned money I will play the PADRES series...
BOL to all.Comment -
You are right but Pirates is not a world class team IMO... Brewers are good but Padres are better...Originally posted by JVP3122Comment -
dodgers at -300 now, havent seen a 300 yet this season!Comment -
Carefull with SD pk. Line is acting funny. 63% of public on SD according to SBR if this is somewhat accurate according to pinny there is RLM on MIL. Just take into consideration in your capping. GL on your plays...Originally posted by BillAccpetorComment -
Good luck in your card today Rever... Astros looks a really good play!!!Originally posted by reverend
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Gl today revComment -
Looks good Rev, really enjoying this thread.
With you on everything today, except doubling up on Houston.
Kind of curious in your thinking of doubling up on this game. Obviously a good matchup, but I kind of feel since this was originally a 1 unit play we actually don't get hit too hard if we lose and move on. Now throwing more money at it you potentially get hammered if they lose. Just kind of curious about your thought process on this, not so much about the individual game and matchup, which are obviously good for the Stros, but more about this move seeming to go against the essence of the system (at least how I interpret the system).
Not giving you a hard time by any means, just more curious about your thought process. If you have the time I'd be intrigued to hear your thoughts.
Hopefully this is all symantics and we kill it today BOL
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assuming SD was a series play, it wouldn't matter what the line is doing or whom is pitching. you would be taking SD - Action to win a game in the series. it may not be todays game that wins. any win in the series is good enough. SD is 7-2 at home. they will win at least one game in this series. Rev has filtered them out. I was just inquiring as to why. I am playing them on my card because I believe they don't get swept at home. bol to everyone today. hope everyone cashes.
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a random thought:
The Dodger line is around -300 now. It appears that everyone and their mother is on this game. You can look at it 2 ways, some may say it is a public pick and you should go the other way for value, but I just dont believe that is the case. This is a huge mismatch in many different areas, mainly travel, pitching and hitting. It reminds me of a game last summer when a team was visiting the Giants and Lincecum was pitching and the team had to call up a triple-a pitcher for a spot start. The line was crazy high, but you have to take advantage of these rare situations as a sports bettor. Please dont hear me say this game is a lock, we all know that no game is guaranteed and know that both teams will have 9 professional baseball players on the field, so anything can happen...BUT, I do feel like you have to take these type of situations and benefit from them when they come up, which is rare.Comment -
rev, where do u get your opening lines? i have the rays as the top fav, by a big margin(-240 to -219)Comment -
Guys, don't let the line movement effect you. They won't play better if line moves in their favor. Many times, these line movements can be speculative. I don't believe in myths like sharp money movement, RLM etc. All sharps are on one team? It's not possible. Some sharps will pick team A, while some sharps will pick team B. It's money that moves the line and the person who places the largest cash, won't always win. Books would be broke then. Line movements (except injuried player etc) can be misleading, don't let it effect you..Comment -
i think i'd rather wheel the dodgers in several 2 team parleys.Comment -
A few thoughts on the SD/MIL series that has been brought up multiple times:
I am trying to refine a few of my filters to screen out a few more plays. We have had an amazing start to the season being 55-0 (+77 Units) after just 25 days of baseball. Just sit back and think about those results. Being a $100 bettor, you are up close to 8K and have 5 more months of baseball, so without even adjusting your units any more, this would equate to making close to 50K over the season.
With that said, I am wanting to cut down on the series that have to go to C bets, so we limit our exposure. This may result in a few less plays, but by cutting down our risk, we are further guaranteeing a large profit come the end of the season.
Application:
SD/MIL passed through most all of my filters, but I screened it out in the last stage of my selection process. Just thinking through it, I do think the SD will get a win, and probably win the series, but looking at the potential dangers...
*Brewers are
-4th in the MLB in batting average
-1st in Slugging Percentage
-3rd in On Base Percentage
-1st in Total Bases
-2nd in RBIs
-4th in HRs
-2nd in Runs Scored
whereas Padres are:
-22nd in Average
-19th in Slugging
-23rd in On Base Percentage
-17th in HRs
-17th in RBIs
-20th in Runs Scored
Now this is only a small portion of the analysis, but it goes to show that the Brewers could very easily sweep a series with just their bats.
Like I said above, I do think if you play this series, you will be fine backing the Padres, but I am going to pass and plan on tightening up my parameters a bit moving forward, because it only takes 1 series sweep to set you back 15-20 Units.Comment -
A few people have noted this above as well, but like I said in my Systems Post on the first page, I am not ever going to be locked into playing a certain team. Tampa did open as the biggest ML Favorite, but I just feel like the Dodger bet is a bit better. The Royals are leading the MLB in batting average. They have some fight in them this year. I will be backing both the Dodgers and Rays big today, but I felt like the Dodgers were the best option for the FAV play today.Originally posted by SkivChef
Hope that helps...Comment -
Excellent work...Originally posted by reverendComment -
Rev, every time you post your screening processes and the thoughts behind your picks I come to respect what you're doing even more. Thanks again for letting us all come along on this fun ride.Comment -
I would much rather play it safe. Thanks for the great work rev.Comment -
garza going today for tampa bay. imo, he's the true ace of the staff and had a bad outing after the rays came back from the most recent successful road trip. i look for him to continue the rays win streak this evening and make amends for his last outing.Comment -
thanks rev, keep up the good work!Comment -
Dodgers and Rays sound good. GLComment -
Originally posted by timmyboy34243
I agree with you all the way. Garza has "ace" stuff and should bounce back tonight and dominate the Royals bats.Comment
