We need Cards big today!
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well done montrealComment -
We are in the same boat, I will not lie.
I am kind of glad at this point my MM is slightly different and I've cut back on my units by approx 80%.
This season so far has been quite strange, with *MANY* systems tanking. One 6-game chase system I track and occasionaly play has been perfect over 4+years and 450+ wins and has taken a 6-game chase loss.
I have been tracking since the 2nd batch of series of the year and so far not including current series there have been:
20 Home sweeps
14 Road sweeps
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34 Sweeps in about a months time. Seems a little high so early in the season.
gluck today...
egr99Comment -
STL at the beginning of this series was:
RPI: 0.5370
OPP RPI: 0.453
RPI DIFF: 0.084
SERIES PRICE: -350Comment -
as sapidoc said, Pinnacle
Someone before said 5dimes does too
however, you can simulate the -1 on your own
get the spreadsheet called RL CALC attached to this threadComment -
Well, its stll early but the Cards sure don't look like a -300 team... Down 4-0 mid 3rd.
gluck guys on SF or else it will be a bloodbath.
egr99Comment -
cards are not a -260 team but this spot (situation) is more then -300 situation. lets go cards!!Comment -
I need cards so bad..Comment -
Man I'm glad I hedged with Astros +1.5 right now!
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Wish I tought of that. If the past two weeks did not do enough damage to me this game could be the nail in the coffin on my "chasing days" in baseball. Too risky with the high juice. May just do one or two a week and that is it. I also am considering just betting on underdogs for the rest of the summer. I see several posters on here doing quite well with that. Good luck to everyone who bet StL today....game is far from over!Comment -
Hey guys...I was just wondering...why don't we do a 3-Line Labby for these plays?? Wouldn't that be safer anyways??Comment -
Trust me right now LABBY lines are only limiting the damage but are still in the negative. LABBY lines need to have a high A/B win pct % to be profitable and right now that isn't the case.
Sucks that after a great run REV is going to be about even for the season assuming SF wins.
Chasing this year in the MLB so far has been horrible. Hopefully it changes back and averages out and we will be in for a few good summer months.
I am at a point that I am debating reversing all my systems, but I am weary that it will get back to normal and create a bigger mess than it already is.
egr99Comment -
Bout to hop on a plane, but as we stand now, Cards are down 4-1 in the top of the 9th. Barring a comeback, I will be taking a break from the game after this series loss.
Hopefully the Giants pull through for us. The FAV System is based on a 4 game chase, so it would go to a very expensive D bet tomorrow. I will post the FAV play for tomorrow to finish up that series.
As you can see, chase systems are "high risk" and we have been in about a 2-3 week period in the MLB where the dogs have been winning left and right, and against some large favorites.Comment -
damnit Cardinals.. arruined my week :s
I have doubts if will ou not play Fav D bet :sComment -
First of all I am sorry to see you guys go below sea level.... Rev has been nothing but a class act... Hopefully he bounces back whether here or just posting picks... I will not come in here and talk about risk/reward ratio anymore... Some decided to listen others bashed me...but the rev was always being positive...but to win big you risk big... sorry once again...and GL and hopefully all of you..even the ones that bashed me when I talked about money management bounce back...have a good night guys.Comment -
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Wow......other than that, I don't know what else can be said.Comment -
This season is just so out of whack right now. I'm still up after these 2 C losses (I didn't play the Cards twice) and I'm thinking I will only try to win $50 per series until things start to go the way they should. All these underdogs beating and even SWEEPING these huge favorites is a fvcking fluke. It can't stay like this for much longer. Hell, it's already too late for A LOT of people cuz of this I'm sure. Right now I use BETUS and they actually saved me some money by not letting me win more than $500. Not sure why it does that but it only happens sometimes. It was early this morning when I placed the bets so I dunno if that had anything to do with it. Down to 9k after I had over 14k on Monday. Complete cluster fvck of a week. Anybody else still above water?Comment -
On my chases I am up just a hair, but not much. This one really hurt...
This was my third loss of the year with them and all three of them came in the last two weeks.
My biggest problem is that shortly after I doubled my unit size is when they started losing. If I were still at the same unit size as the first of the year I would still be doing quite well.
timing is everything I suppose
time to regroupComment -
I was almost back to breakeven from the previous losses, I try to win $1000 per series, these 2 on the same day at that juice set me back a mid-range luxury car. Giants are on another system I use that has a D bet. Try to recover something.Comment -
only about 40 is mine, but they extend me if I need it. I've considered a D bet on the Cards, if u go back and look at the losses for Rev, all the D's won with the exception of the Stros I believe. But with the juice we paid for the Cards on this series the bet would be more than my book would allow. I'd have to piece it together. Think I'll just take my lumps on that one.Comment -
G, I'm sure u think I've bashed u, but it was more giving u a hard time. First off, people shouldn't play with $ they can't lose. We all have our own agenda in sports betting, urs is to be up at the end of the year and that's fine. I think that's great. We all pay for our entertainment one way or the other. But playing all year to be up 30% on my roll just isn't very much fun. It doesnt feel like winning 2 me. It's a hell of a lot of work keeping up with all these bets for 4 months. Losing the 2 C bets today SUCKED no doubt and I'm sure people are disappointed but who in the hell would have guessed the Stros would sweep?!? Anyway..as I said earlier Rev may consider a 4 game chase and cut units by a 1/4 or a half. I've used a 4 game chase for a few years successfully. If someone went back and checked Rev's record on a 4 game chase the record is a lot prettier. Let's see what STL and SFO do tomorrow. BOL everyone.Last edited by dogs1972; 05-13-10, 10:27 PM.Comment -
Updated series stats... (did not record 1st series of year for each team)
Series starting 10/05/10 & 11/05/10
14 series...5 NL HOME Teams swept...WOW...
Arizona -120 for series
Milwaukee -120 for series
Pittsburgh +100 for series
St Louis -350 for series
San Francisco -180 for series
Year to Date stats...
148 series... 40 sweeps... 148/40= 1 in 3.7
18 x Home sweeps (3 x 4G sweeps included)
22 x Road sweeps
10 x NL Home Sweeps
12 x NL Road Sweeps
10 x AL Home Sweeps
8 x AL Road SweepsComment -
Agreed. Rev, is on a worthy pedestal here. I don't care if he had a shit day. It happens. Let's move on. I will have to say about chasing (and this is just my personal opinion), I think that G is doing it the right way. What I have found is that counting on the law of averages will only benefit you over a longer span than most have patience for.Comment -
Ugh, I got killed by Cards too.. (Lost 3100$ approximately)
But you know this is a marathon, not a sprint. Rays won't get swept at home by Mariners. (If it happens, I'll quit side betting on baseball, serious!)
Have a good weekend Rev! May the luck be with you..Comment
