CK's 2025 MLB Thread

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FILTERED FOR 4/6/25

CRUMBS POD Giants (Jordan Hicks) (16% rostership)


1:30 Rot.#911 Pale Hose +180 FF ML Perez 2 UNITS (7% rosters)
1:30 Rot.#923 Jays/Mets OVER 4.5 +110 FF Francis#12/Peterson#15 1 UNIT
1:30 Rot.#922 Buccos+130 FF ML Heaney (DNS) 1 UNIT (3% rosters)
1:30 Rot.#901 Fish+125 FF ML Alcantara#4 1 UNIT (89% rostership)
1:30 Rot.#903 Dodgers (Glasnow#1) OVER K's SCRATCH NO MOVE ON THIS
2:00 Rot.#913 Astronauts-105 FF ML Blanco 2 UNITS (60% rosters)
2:00 Rot.#916 Royals-115 FF ML Bubic 2 UNITS (19% rosters)
2:00 Rot.#907 Red Leggins/Brews OVER 4.5 -110 FF Spiers (DNS)/Patrick (DNS)
4:00 Rot.#928 Sailors/Giants UNDER 3.5 +115 FF Woo#3/Hicks#7

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Ah there it is. Ok so the Astronauts was a bad beat (9 hits and 9 LOB) and so was the Blunts wit ha the bases jacked and no outs in the 5th and not getting a run. Have to look at those setbacks as collateral damage somewhat and move on to tomorrow. I have already mined it out. I am super proud of the Gators for making the NCAA final too!

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Marquez has 6 walks and it's the 6th frame-however the A's only have one run! What the heck is going on here?

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There may be a Kyle Finnegan sighting tomorrow for the Nats! That would be great since I have him stashed

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Damn-so Blunts with bases loaded and no outs don't score in the bottom of the 5th. This is turning out to be one of those days when you can do everything right and still be wrong...Pissers

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Holy smokes! Astronauts have 9 runners LOB and it's only the 7th frame! Egads!

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ADDED MOVE

Rot.#973 Cardinals+100 ML FF Pallante

Sometimes you have to go with the metrics and trust the process. Not that Pallante is great by any measure, but his hard hit % is 37.5% and Fitts is 40% ; Pallante whiffs are at 35.1% and swing % is 47.4%. Fitts has whiffs at 18.2% and a swing % of 62.0 which is the HIGHEST out of any starter. Gotta roll with the percentages and trust it will pan out

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Too bad Matthew Boyd has the Friars offense to contend with today-but it's in a home run suppressing park so he should be alright. I ranked him at #17 today-but he has only 9% ownership by managers so it's a decent sized payday should he do what he does. His hard hit rate is only 21.4% which is EXCELLENT

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Ok so the big board has been updated

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I haven't figured out how i will use Reese Olson yet. Since my principle is to not make a move over -135 it may be difficult to find a decent price for him. His K% was at 21.7% last season so that may be the way to go. Let me sleep on it

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4/5/25


First of all I blasted away on Colin Rea (Cubs) who has 0% rostership. Translated if/when he gets a spot start for the Cubs and does well I stand to make a cut of a 100% share

Secondly the CRUMBS POD Streamer of the day for Saturday is Reese Olson (Tigers). It's the Pale Hose and he has only a 20% use rate. He is highly capable of giving me the 5 frames and 3/1 that I need to keep the chunks of money rolling in even on days that are subpar for conventional moves

Bailey Ober has a ghastly 1.207 OPS against the Astronauts-time for a team total

Roki Sasaki has a 19.5%K rate and 24% whiff rate compared to Nola's 34.8% K rate and 31.8% whiff rate and even worse a 68% barrels and 89% hard hit rate. Are you serious?

All you need to know is that Bailey Falter has a 1.152 OPS vs the Bombers-oh my. And then in the other corner we have Marcus Stroman who I have demoted down to DNS status and has a line of 80 AB; 12K; 6 BB; .338 AVG, .384 OBP; .425 SLG; .809 OPS vs the Buccos.

Despite less than stellar K-rates and whiff rates Bassitt and Canning have been able to neutralize the opposing teams hitters. It's cringe worthy weird

Brady Singer with the 33.3% K rate and 34.9 % whiff rate to go along with a sterling .160 AVG, .276 OBP, .280 SLG and .556 OPS vs a DNS arm-in what looks to be a bullpen game? I will take my chances on Singer and his mitt popping 4 seamer.

What do you get when you have two DNS (DO NOT START) facing one another in Coors Field? You get the 27th ranked and 22nd ranked arms. Sears K% is 28 to go along with a 24.4% whiff rate and 16.7% barrels and a hard hit % of 44.4? Marquez has a 18.8% K and 22.2% whiff rate. The ball's gonna be in play A LOT! I will come along and fill in the prices once they become available-but for now it's important to get the A's/Rox total in BEFORE it goes up

Rot.#963 Astronauts+100 FF ML Arrighetti
Rot.#963 Astronauts Team Total OVER 3.5 -110
Rot.#954 Blunts-130 FF ML Nola 2 UNITS
Rot.#971 Bombers/Buccos OVER 5.5 +110 FF
Rot.#971 Bombers Team Total OVER 5.5 +115
Rot.#976 Jays/Metropolitans UNDER 4.5 -135 FF
Rot.#957 Red Leggins-115 FF ML Singer 2 UNITS
Rot.#977 A's/.Rox OVER 9 -115
Rot.#962 Tigers (Olson) OVER 5.5 K's +120

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BUY TIME

10 Teamers

Austin Wells-C (Bombers)
Lars Nootbar OF (Cardinals)
Kristian Campbell 2B (Red Sox)
Victor Scott OF (Cardinals)

12 Teamers

Wilyer Abreu OF (Red Sox)
Spencer Torkelson 1B (Tigers)
Tyler Soderstrom 1B (A's)
Otto Lopez (2B, 3B (Fish)

Sell

10 Teamers

Triston Casas 1B (Red Sox)
Nolan Arenado 3B (Cardinals) I caught heat over this one in the discord


12 Teamers

Nolan Jones OF (Guardians)
David Hamilton 2B/SS (Red Sox)

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Not that anyone gives a damn but I found out through my data mining that my best way of getting wins in this format are to stick to the FF and avoid late game bullpen collapses.

1) Follow my streamers for CRUMBS POD some sort of way be it either with K's or a side ONLY and not to mix in any other move on a POD game

2) Make moves on team totals for teams that have a 1.100 or more for an OVER and less than .400 for an UNDER

3) Always make a move on an arm that I have ranked higher than the favorite as an underdog; either RL (at less than -130) or a ML

4) Avoid buying ANYTHING over -135-even if it results in a loss from making a RL move it pays off over the course of a season

5) Only make a full game move on a TOTAL

6) Only go for K's with arms that have a a 35% or more K rate and WHIFF rate of the same

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Tyler Mahle#16 (Wanderers) is on only 2% of rosters facing Zack Littell #20; and the Wanderers have an OPS of 1.133 against him. Mahle has only faced 2 of the rays hitters so he will be abit of a mystery-let's hope it lasts long enough to get through those 5 frames and give me a sneaky good payday on a 98% share should he get the 3/1 to go along with it.

I have Fedde ranked at #19 and Beuhler at #22 so there's a higher dog, Nick Martinez is also a higher ranked dog.

Luzardo has a 50% K and 41.9% whiff rate. that's hard to ignore-even if it is against the Champs. Hey at least Freddy Freeman will be sitting this one out which may help matters some.

One of the ways that I found while data mining is to take the Team total OVER for teams with a 1.100 or more OPS against the pitcher that they are facing. This is true for Littell vs the Wanderers and for


Rot.#919 Cardinals+0.5 -120 FF RL Fedde (HD)
Rot.#922 Metropolitans-0.5 +105 Megill 2 UNITS CRUMBS POD
Rot.#916 Wanderers Team Total OVER 4.5 +105
Rot.#909 Red Leggins-105 FF ML Martinez (HD)
Rot.#904 Blunts (Luzardo) OVER 5.5 K's -105
Rot.#916 Wanderers-0.5 -105 RL FF Mahle

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Still data mining this morning. I am looking to perfect the way that I intersect fantasy league baseball with traditional sides and totals moves. I am 3/4 of the way to looking over results both good and bad and in a few hours I should have my formula.

In the meantime one thing is for certain-my streamers of the day will stay intact and be a big part of how I operate going forward

Rot.#922 Metropolitans-0.5 FF -105 Megill 2 UNITS

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Morton with the 10 K's and 2 BB over 5 frames! Excellent!

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Despite the runs surrendered(which mean absolutely nothing in my league) Charlie Morton is off to a 8 K 2 BB start and here he is in the 5th frame

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Tylor Megill (Metropolitans) is on only 10% of rosters for tomorrow vs Jays.

He looked SO GOOD in his last start and I'm being a bit aggressive here to showcase how he should be picked up just for the chance that he keeps it going. If he does-this may be the breakout pick of the year. No joke. is it a big IF? Kinda yeah...

Nice spot to put down a cool $600 boys on him. May bring back north of over 4 dimes for me with a nice 5 frames and 3/1 ratio and a split of a 90% pot.

Grab him NOW and don't tell anyone

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Just picked up some Lodolo. Any time that I see an arm that I have at a higher rank and is an underdog-I am on it, I have Cortes#6 and Lodolo#3

Rot.#953 Red Leggins+100 Lodolo#3

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CRUMBS POD RECORD 5-1

Todays CRUMBS POD Streamer is

Orioles (Charlie Morton)

Appearing on only 13% of rosters this is clearly a cash grab. And his numbers vs the Red Sox aren't overwhelming. but they are decent as ****. 71 AB; 18 K, 7 BB, .225 AVG, .295 OBP, .296 SLG, .591 OPS. The mere fact that he has a 10.80 ERA and is FAVORED means that for the most part the homework has already been done for you. Morton is your typical middling arm. There's a chance for a quality start and win here even in the conventional sense of betting as he has a dynamite offense to help out if he is terrible today. You guys are after conventional sides and totals moves-I am not. I am a cold blooded fantasy league sharp who's out for large sums of cash. It is quite common that I can have a losing day with conventional sides and totals and make a HUGE profit streaming. Hell I gotta go pick up another envelope this morning from the Commish at his office (and pick up a few summons and complaints to serve) for Roupp!

I have Carrasco (Bombers) ranked dead last today, and when Merrill Kelly has a .180 AVG, .240 OBP, .348 SLG, and .588 OPS vs the Bombers I am not afraid to go against the joes and take the Snakes yet again. I hate relievers so as per the usual I am going FF with this.

If you are chilling in a league where you can only go after K's then Brown vs Ryan may be your game for a combo. One of them is going to scorch the earth so 11 or 12 is actually not as high a number for a comb as you may think


Ok so here are the goods for today

Rot.#951 Rox/Blunts OVER 5.5 +100 FF Senzatela#9 DNS/Walker#8 DNS
Rot.#956 Orioles-105 ML FF Morton#4
Rot.#958 Astronauts/Twinkies UNDER 3.5 +100 FF Brown#2/Ryan#1
Rot.#959 Snakes+105 Kelly#5

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The payout for Casey Mize last night is so large that the Commish has asked me to meet him at the Blufin to collect my earnings in person over lunch. I love me some stickball!

Awesome payday. That's all that I am going to say. I don't like bragging from me or anyone else

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And when the dust settled my man gave me the go-ahead to come by his office in the morning to get a special package AGAIN for the advice for Roupp today and his 4 frames and 8 K's and everyone else in the entire league was on the Astronauts and Framber. Even though it was a managerial decision to pull him he still is going to pay me as if he went the 5 frames

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The payout for Casey Mize last night is so large that the Commish has asked me to meet him at the Blufin to collect my earnings in person over lunch. I love me some stickball!

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Don't chase K's with Roupp-just go for it hoping that he is around after the 5fth frame and gives you a 3/1!

Skenes has a line of 7.5 K's. he may have that by the end of the 4th frame.

Do get some-I am

Rot.#917 Buccos (Skenes) OVER 7.5 K's -115

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My Top Ten Streamers for 4/2/25

#1 Tigers (Skubal)
#2 Blunts 9Wheeler)
#3 Buccos (Skenes)
#4 Red Sox (Crochet)
#5 Fathers (Cease)
#6 Twinkies (Lopez)
#7 Royals (Ragans)
#8 Dodgers (Snell)
#9 Red Leggins (Greene)
#10 Astronauts (Valdez)

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4/2/25

CRUMBS STREAMER POD Landen Roupp

Rot.#921 Nats-0.5 -105 FF RL Gore
Rot.#911 Red Sox-125 FF ML Crochet
Rot.#903 Rox+1.5 -125 FF RL Freeland
Rot.#926 Giants+0.5 -105 FF RL Roupp
Rot.#929 Snakes+110 FF ML Gallen
Rot.#924 A's-115 FF ML Springs
Rot.#914 Red Leggins-0.5 -105 FF RL Greene
Rot.#917 Buccos-0.5 +115 FF RL Skenes
Rot.#915 Royals-110 FF ML Ragans
Rot.#927 Guardians+0.5 +100 FF RL Lively

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Tomorrow's CRUMBS Streamer of the Day will be

(Giants)Landen Roupp

Look he was incredible during the spring and I 'm excited to see if he's valuable enough for you all to pick up on your rosters across your leagues. If you have a questionable arm on your wire-you may want to swap them out and replace them with him BEFORE the outing. Of course you have no idea who the **** I'm talking about-you're not a pro and when i spoke on the up and comers you weren't interested-all that you wanted ere whatever I was making moves on that day. but that's neither here nor there-get you some and let's pray that the awful managerial decision has him removed before he can go 5 frames and get the coveted 3-1 K/BB ratio. He's only on 7% of rosters so this will be a MASSIVE payday for me and you too if you should so choose.

Back to data mining for tomorrow

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4/1/25

STREAMER OF THE DAY

Here's to the slider being a perfect bridge pitch! Do NOT chase K's with him however-use him in deeper leagues. He is appearing on (get this) 10% of rosters. Translated there is an opportunity for a MASSIVE payday should he get me my 5 frames and 3/1 ratio. No one even knows that he is pitching in this game under the shadow of Gilbert. Make no mistake about it-Gilbert is in fact my #1 arm today (for pennies on the dollar)


Also here's a pro tip-leave Alcantara (Fish) alone and pick up a bat. With only 32 K's in 159 AB this isn't the day for use vs the Metropolitans

Tigers (Casey Mize)

Rot.#957 Tigers+0.5 -110 FF RL Mize
Rot.#957 Tigers Team Total OVER 3.5 +145
Rot.#976 Cubs/A's UNDER 4.5 -130 FF Steele/Severino
Rot.#974 Fathers Team Total OVER 4.5 +110
Rot.#971 Giants Team Total OVER 4.5 +115
Rot.#971 Giants-125 FF ML Webb
Rot.#969 Halos+120 FF ML Hendricks
Rot.#956 Pale Hose+0.5 -110 FF RL Smith
Rot.#956 Pale Hose Team Total OVER 3.5 +110
Rot.#965 Nats+0.5 -105 RL FF Williams
Rot.#959 Wanderers-0.5 -105 FF RL Eovaldi

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Jackson Jobe didn't impress in his first start....and what's worse by game time it was half and half on the money so the payout wasn't going to be god even if he went for 5 frames with the 3/1...

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Added move. I saw this his use was very low and I threw down on him in my 12 teamer for a juicy price-so with that I also made a conventional move on him as well

Rot.#923 Giants+105 FF ML Hicks

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3/30/25

Streamer of the Day

CRUMBS STREAMER POD RECORD 3-0

Tigers (Jackson Jobe) It's Safeco Field-it's the Sailors. He's starting! Hopefully his nerves won't get the best of him.

In other news-the Buccos just have Rasmussen's number. He has a stat line of a .364 AVG against wit this team and that's not good in a cookie cutter stadium with the dimensions of Yankee Stadium

Rot.#927 Cubs/A's OVER 4.5 -120 FF Brown(DNS)/Estes (DNS)
Rot.#911 Tigers+100 ML FF Jobe(#5)
Rot.#911 Tigers (Jobe #5) OVER K's NO LINE
Rot.#925 Guardians/Fathers OVER 4.5 -120 FF Ortiz (DNS)/Hart (DEAD LAST DNS)
Rot.#924 Giants/Astronauts UNDER 4.5 -115 FF Hicks(#11)/Blanco (#8) .
Rot.#902 Blunts Team Total OVER 4.5 -130 2 UNITS (Marquez (#18).368 avg/1.029 OPS vs Blunts)
Rot.#917 Buccos+0.5 -105 FF RL Mlodzinski(#27)/Rasmussen (#3)
Rot.#921 Halos+110 ML FF Anderson (#13)/ Mikolas (#23 DNS)

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Damn...ordinarily I would just blast away on Glasnow's K's-part of me feels that he may be a victim of a managerial decision to remove him after a lower than desired pitch count...anyway-back to data mining

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Woo pissed on the money here today with 5/2 in 6 frames....

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Get one leg up on the competition. For tomorrow 3/31/25 grab on any 12 teamer and yes chase K/W

(Tigers) Jackson Jobe CRUMBS POD

He's only on 14% of rosters and with that I can easily clear another 3K day off of my $600

Ok back to my research

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fantasy wise I am having a pretty good day-conventional sides and totals not so good. For instance

Sugano (didn't get the five frames-thumbs down)
Meyer (My POD didn't disappoint with 5.2 frames and 7 K and 1 BB-an easy 3K win with his rostership being what it was)
Nola (5.1 frames and 8 K's and 2 walks-the payout was extremely minimal since everyone had him)
Martinez (6 frames 5 K's and 1 walk decent sized win with only 32% rostership)
Bibee and Wacha kept the score low enough to get a win for the conventional side-I had neither rostered
Martin (I didn't have him on roster-just basically faded the Halos as their bats are tepid)

Richard Fitts had 9 called strikes and 8 swinging strikes; and 16 foul balls and 20 in play strikes; 7 of which were grounders and 7 of which were fly ball outs in his 6 frames to go along with 4 k's and most importantly no walks. Overall not a bad outing. His average pitch level value was mid. But I like his arsenal- 45% 4 seamers; 31% sliders; 13% sweeper; and 11% splitter. Should be no need to move him back down to the farm just yet. I am ranking him around 50th so there's room to grow for sure. I wonder aloud how that flyball rate will work at Fenway ..guess we are just gonna have to wait and see