MLB 2017 - SDQL, Projections, Picks, Tracking, Discussion

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  • FUqer
    SBR MVP
    • 01-22-15
    • 3968

    #736
    Originally posted by FUqer
    -Cubs -178

    Mets -106
    Red Sox -119
    D-Backs -112
    __________________________

    The Pirates blowing another 4 run lead on back to back nights was about the last straw for me, I'm pretty much shutting down my lab work on the season and getting ready for football. I'm still gonna make these $20 plays for awhile, but I'm not really putting much time into it, maybe that will be a good thing and I won't over think things as much. I'll still keep my record updated and tend to the DOD thread as long as people post plays in it. I learned a lot this season and can't wait for next season, but I'm still not totally done this year, just shifting my focus. Good Luck All!
    Comment
    • thekoreanmang
      SBR MVP
      • 03-17-14
      • 1422

      #737
      Good luck and good job! Always appreciate your insights.
      Comment
      • FUqer
        SBR MVP
        • 01-22-15
        • 3968

        #738
        Monday Plays 8/21

        ¤ Pirates +130
        ¤ Braves -102
        ¤ Angels -1 -108
        _________________________
        Comment
        • FUqer
          SBR MVP
          • 01-22-15
          • 3968

          #739
          Tuesday Plays 8/22

          ¤ Braves +105
          ¤ Brewers -107
          __________________________

          Fade material.
          Comment
          • FUqer
            SBR MVP
            • 01-22-15
            • 3968

            #740
            I got a couple of spots left in my FF league on Yahoo, so far it just my RL friends and most aren't that good. It's $20 to join, but you'll have to send via pay pal because I couldn't make it a cash league on Yahoo due to State laws for some members that live in Indiana. let me know if you're interested. The live draft will be August 29th at 9pm EST and it is a 1 pt PPR league 1 QB, 3 WR, 2 RB, 1 WR/RB/TE, 1 DEF, 1 K, 2 Def Players and 7 Bench, with no trades, sorry but trades cause conflict when in leagues with friends that aren't worth it. This is more a fun league with a cash prize.

            1st place = $125 ( if gets 10 members and more if over 10 members)
            2nd place = $50
            Most Points Scored Regular Season = $25
            Comment
            • FUqer
              SBR MVP
              • 01-22-15
              • 3968

              #741
              Tuesday Results 8/22

              ¤ Braves +105
              ¤ Brewers -107
              __________________________
              Yesterday = 2-0 for +2.05
              ___________________________
              Since All Star Break

              ML = 49-56 for -4.20
              (Dogs = 25-27)
              (Favs = 24-29)

              RL = 27-18 for +8.84

              O/U = 30-37 for -9.83
              (Overs = 18-14)
              (Unders = 12-23)

              Parlays = 3-6 for -0.01

              Total = 109-117-11 -5.20
              __________________________
              Recent Results

              22nd = 2-0 for +2.05
              21st = 0-3 for - 3.10
              18th = 2-2 for -0.18
              17th = 0-2 for -2.08
              ______________________________
              Comment
              • FUqer
                SBR MVP
                • 01-22-15
                • 3968

                #742
                Wednesday Plays 8/23

                ¤ Phillies +107
                ¤ Blue Jays -111
                ¤ Royals -1 +108
                ¤ Padres +170
                __________________________
                Comment
                • FUqer
                  SBR MVP
                  • 01-22-15
                  • 3968

                  #743
                  The Blue Jays are 19-0 SU as a favorite after a game as a road dog in which their bullpen allowed multiple runs and it after the All-Star break.

                  Lost by 8 last game = -12.1 % ROI 438-571 (Cardinals, Indians)

                  -26.2% ROI 39-62 = (Cardinals)

                  HF WP% Under 50% vs WP% Over 50% in NL = 27-7 L34 +42.4% (Giants)
                  Comment
                  • FUqer
                    SBR MVP
                    • 01-22-15
                    • 3968

                    #744
                    Wednesday Results 8/23

                    ¤ Phillies +107
                    ¤ Blue Jays -111
                    ¤ Royals -1 +108
                    ¤ Padres +170
                    __________________________
                    Yesterday = 3-1 for +2.15
                    ___________________________
                    Since All Star Break

                    ML = 51-57 for -3.13
                    (Dogs = 26-28)
                    (Favs = 25-29)

                    RL = 28-18 for +9.92

                    O/U = 30-37 for -9.83
                    (Overs = 18-14)
                    (Unders = 12-23)

                    Parlays = 3-6 for -0.01

                    Total = 112-118-11 -3.05
                    __________________________
                    Recent Results

                    23rd = 3-1 for +2.15
                    22nd = 2-0 for +2.05
                    21st = 0-3 for -3.10
                    18th = 2-2 for -0.18
                    17th = 0-2 for -2.08
                    ______________________________
                    Comment
                    • FUqer
                      SBR MVP
                      • 01-22-15
                      • 3968

                      #745
                      I missed the 4 games I liked the most today and I'm hesitant to play on favs considering how well they have done so far today with the Dodgers currently leading also. I like the Cubs RL and Twins RL, but may just take a shot with the Indians.
                      Comment
                      • FUqer
                        SBR MVP
                        • 01-22-15
                        • 3968

                        #746
                        Thursday Plays 8/24


                        ¤ Indians +146
                        __________________________
                        Comment
                        • FUqer
                          SBR MVP
                          • 01-22-15
                          • 3968

                          #747
                          Thursday Results 8/24

                          ¤ Indians +146
                          __________________________
                          1-0 for +1.46
                          ___________________________
                          Since All Star Break

                          ML = 52-57 for -1.67
                          (Dogs = 27-28)
                          (Favs = 25-29)

                          RL = 28-18 for +9.92

                          O/U = 30-37 for -9.83
                          (Overs = 18-14)
                          (Unders = 12-23)

                          Parlays = 3-6 for -0.01

                          Total = 113-118-11 -1.59
                          __________________________

                          Recent Results

                          24th = 1-0 for +1.46
                          23rd = 3-1 for +2.15
                          22nd = 2-0 for +2.05
                          21st = 0-3 for -3.10
                          18th = 2-2 for -0.18
                          17th = 0-2 for -2.08
                          ______________________________
                          Comment
                          • FUqer
                            SBR MVP
                            • 01-22-15
                            • 3968

                            #748
                            Friday Plays 8/25

                            ¤ Mets -1 -111
                            ¤ Braves -1 +118
                            ¤ Indians -1 +110
                            ¤ Astros +100

                            ¤ Parlay: (Yankees/Tigers) +153
                            __________________________
                            Comment
                            • FUqer
                              SBR MVP
                              • 01-22-15
                              • 3968

                              #749
                              Friday Results 8/25

                              ¤ Mets -1 -111
                              ¤ Braves -1 +118
                              ¤ Indians -1 +110
                              ¤ Astros +100

                              ¤ Parlay: (Yankees/Tigers) +153
                              __________________________
                              Yesterday = 4-1 for +3.28
                              ___________________________
                              Since All Star Break

                              ML = 53-57 for -0.67
                              (Dogs = 28-28)
                              (Favs = 25-29)

                              RL = 31-18 for +13.20

                              O/U = 30-37 for -9.83
                              (Overs = 18-14)
                              (Unders = 12-23)

                              Parlays = 3-7 for -1.01

                              Total = 117-119-11 +1.69
                              __________________________
                              Recent Results

                              25th = 4-1 for +3.28
                              24th = 1-0 for +1.46
                              23rd = 3-1 for +2.15
                              22nd = 2-0 for +2.05
                              21st = 0-3 for -3.10

                              ______________________________
                              Comment
                              • FUqer
                                SBR MVP
                                • 01-22-15
                                • 3968

                                #750
                                Saturday Plays 8/26


                                ¤ Nationals RL -105
                                ¤ Rangers -106
                                ¤ Braves -112
                                ¤ Padres +101
                                ¤ Brewers +167

                                ¤ Rangers/Athletics Under 9 -108
                                __________________________
                                Comment
                                • FUqer
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 01-22-15
                                  • 3968

                                  #751
                                  Saturday Results 8/26

                                  ¤ Nationals RL -105
                                  ¤ Rangers -106
                                  ¤ Braves -112
                                  ¤ Padres +101
                                  ¤ Brewers +167

                                  ¤ Rangers/Athletics Under 9 -108
                                  __________________________
                                  Yesterday = 2-4 for -1.59
                                  ___________________________
                                  Since All Star Break

                                  ML = 54-60 for -2.18
                                  (Dogs = 29-29)
                                  (Favs = 25-31)

                                  RL = 32-18 for +14.20

                                  O/U = 30-38 for -10.91
                                  (Overs = 18-14)
                                  (Unders = 12-24)

                                  Parlays = 3-7 for -1.01

                                  Total = 119-123-11 +0.10
                                  __________________________
                                  Recent Results

                                  26th = 2-4 for -1.59
                                  25th = 4-1 for +3.28
                                  24th = 1-0 for +1.46
                                  23rd = 3-1 for +2.15
                                  22nd = 2-0 for +2.05
                                  21st = 0-3 for -3.10
                                  ______________________________

                                  A couple late inning losses put a stop to my mini win streak. I dunno why I played another total, let alone an Under, dee dee on me.
                                  Comment
                                  • FUqer
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 01-22-15
                                    • 3968

                                    #752
                                    Sunday Plays 8/27

                                    ¤ Indians RL +100
                                    ¤ Pirates -109
                                    ¤ Rays -119
                                    ¤ Red Sox -1 -105
                                    ¤ Athletics -108
                                    __________________________
                                    Comment
                                    • FUqer
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 01-22-15
                                      • 3968

                                      #753
                                      Diamondbacks -7.9%

                                      Athletics = +11.6%

                                      Rays +19.8% 500+ gms

                                      Orioles are 19-0 RL

                                      The Brewers are 0-19 SU

                                      Diamondbacks are 0-14 OU

                                      Marlins +24.1% 108-42
                                      Comment
                                      • FUqer
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 01-22-15
                                        • 3968

                                        #754
                                        Sunday Results 8/27


                                        ¤ Indians RL +100
                                        ¤ Pirates -109
                                        ¤ Rays -119
                                        ¤ Red Sox -1 -105
                                        ¤ Athletics -108
                                        __________________________
                                        4-1 for +2.95
                                        ___________________________
                                        Since All Star Break

                                        ML = 57-60 for +0.82
                                        (Dogs = 29-29)
                                        (Favs = 28-31)

                                        RL = 33-19 for +14.15

                                        O/U = 30-38 for -10.91
                                        (Overs = 18-14)
                                        (Unders = 12-24)

                                        Parlays = 3-7 for -1.01

                                        Total = 123-124-11 +3.05
                                        __________________________
                                        Recent Results

                                        27th = 4-1 for +2.95
                                        26th = 2-4 for -1.59
                                        25th = 4-1 for +3.28
                                        24th = 1-0 for +1.46
                                        23rd = 3-1 for +2.15
                                        22nd = 2-0 for +2.05
                                        ______________________________
                                        Comment
                                        • FUqer
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 01-22-15
                                          • 3968

                                          #755
                                          Monday Plays 8/28


                                          ¤ Red Sox +107
                                          ¤ Indians +100
                                          ¤ Padres -103
                                          __________________________
                                          Back to normal unit amount for one last run.
                                          Comment
                                          • FUqer
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 01-22-15
                                            • 3968

                                            #756
                                            Only one spot left for FF, $20 entry. Draft tomorrow at 9 pm on Yahoo. PM for details.
                                            Comment
                                            • Cardinals01
                                              SBR Sharp
                                              • 12-16-16
                                              • 307

                                              #757
                                              Good luck in the draft tomorrow.
                                              Have you been able to adjust these formulas for college football and NFL? Any certain conferences or trends stand out heading into the year? Appreciate the time and analysis you put in.
                                              Comment
                                              • FUqer
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 01-22-15
                                                • 3968

                                                #758
                                                Originally posted by Cardinals01
                                                Good luck in the draft tomorrow.
                                                Have you been able to adjust these formulas for college football and NFL? Any certain conferences or trends stand out heading into the year? Appreciate the time and analysis you put in.
                                                Yea, it all works the same and can be helpful, but IMO,maybe not as good for football, because they don't play as many games. I find it useful for all sports though to look up certain spots and trends. For football I run a model after the first month and for college basketball, I use KenPom a lot and a model after the first month or so. I use SDQL and spot betting for NHL, I don't have a model yet for that. I'll prolly start a football thread sometime soon and post some SDQL in it.
                                                Comment
                                                • FUqer
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 01-22-15
                                                  • 3968

                                                  #759
                                                  Monday Results 8/28

                                                  ¤ Red Sox +107
                                                  ¤ Indians +100
                                                  ¤ Padres -103
                                                  __________________________
                                                  Yesterday = 2-1 for +1.04
                                                  ___________________________
                                                  Since All Star Break

                                                  ML = 59-61 for +1.86
                                                  (Dogs = 31-29)
                                                  (Favs = 28-32)

                                                  RL = 33-19 for +14.15

                                                  O/U = 30-38 for -10.91
                                                  (Overs = 18-14)
                                                  (Unders = 12-24)

                                                  Parlays = 3-7 for -1.01

                                                  Total = 125-125-11 +4.09
                                                  __________________________
                                                  Recent Results

                                                  28th = 2-1 for +1.04
                                                  27th = 4-1 for +2.95
                                                  26th = 2-4 for -1.59
                                                  25th = 4-1 for +3.28
                                                  24th = 1-0 for +1.46
                                                  23rd = 3-1 for +2.15
                                                  22nd = 2-0 for +2.05
                                                  ______________________________
                                                  Comment
                                                  • FUqer
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 01-22-15
                                                    • 3968

                                                    #760
                                                    Tuesday Plays 8/29


                                                    ¤ Phillies -106
                                                    ¤ D-Backs +113
                                                    __________________________
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Cardinals01
                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                      • 12-16-16
                                                      • 307

                                                      #761
                                                      Originally posted by FUqer
                                                      Yea, it all works the same and can be helpful, but IMO,maybe not as good for football, because they don't play as many games. I find it useful for all sports though to look up certain spots and trends. For football I run a model after the first month and for college basketball, I use KenPom a lot and a model after the first month or so. I use SDQL and spot betting for NHL, I don't have a model yet for that. I'll prolly start a football thread sometime soon and post some SDQL in it.
                                                      Awesome, look forward to it. Thanks for the response.
                                                      Great work the past week.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • FUqer
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 01-22-15
                                                        • 3968

                                                        #762
                                                        Originally posted by Cardinals01
                                                        Awesome, look forward to it. Thanks for the response.
                                                        Great work the past week.
                                                        No prob, thanks for stopping in.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • FUqer
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 01-22-15
                                                          • 3968

                                                          #763
                                                          Mariners -35.9% ROI 50-138
                                                          Mariners 0-13 SU

                                                          Rays +10.0 ROI 548-383

                                                          Blue Jays +23.8% ROI 78-57

                                                          Padres +11.5% ROI 1021-617

                                                          Giants +14.7% ROI 93-95

                                                          White Sox 0-22 SU

                                                          Indians 0-21 SU
                                                          Yankees 15-0 SU

                                                          Yankees 0-15 Under

                                                          Twins 0-13 Under

                                                          Astros, Brewers, D-Backs, Reds, Twins = Over +11.9% ROI 79-55
                                                          Comment
                                                          • FUqer
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 01-22-15
                                                            • 3968

                                                            #764
                                                            A couple parlays for some action, since I only have two plays today.


                                                            Comment
                                                            • FUqer
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 01-22-15
                                                              • 3968

                                                              #765
                                                              Tuesday Results 8/29

                                                              ¤ Phillies -106
                                                              ¤ D-Backs +113
                                                              __________________________
                                                              Yesterday = 1-0 for +1.13
                                                              ___________________________
                                                              Since All Star Break

                                                              ML = 60-61 for +2.99
                                                              (Dogs = 32-29)
                                                              (Favs = 28-32)

                                                              RL = 33-19 for +14.15

                                                              O/U = 30-38 for -10.91
                                                              (Overs = 18-14)
                                                              (Unders = 12-24)

                                                              Parlays = 3-7 for -1.01

                                                              Total = 126-125-11 +5.22
                                                              __________________________
                                                              Recent Results

                                                              29th = 1-0 for +1.13
                                                              28th = 2-1 for +1.04
                                                              27th = 4-1 for +2.95
                                                              26th = 2-4 for -1.59
                                                              25th = 4-1 for +3.28
                                                              24th = 1-0 for +1.46
                                                              23rd = 3-1 for +2.15
                                                              22nd = 2-0 for +2.05
                                                              ______________________________

                                                              I also hit on one of the parlays above, but it was knocked down to a 5 teamer due to cancellations.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • FUqer
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 01-22-15
                                                                • 3968

                                                                #766
                                                                Wednesday Plays 8/30


                                                                ¤ Cardinals -116
                                                                ¤ Phillies TBA
                                                                ¤ Mariners +125
                                                                ¤ Blue Jays -107
                                                                ¤ D-Backs +101
                                                                ¤ Angels -1 -108
                                                                __________________________
                                                                Comment
                                                                • FUqer
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 01-22-15
                                                                  • 3968

                                                                  #767
                                                                  Originally posted by FUqer
                                                                  Wednesday Plays 8/30


                                                                  ¤ Cardinals -116
                                                                  ¤ Phillies +104
                                                                  ¤ Mariners +125
                                                                  ¤ Blue Jays -107
                                                                  ¤ D-Backs +101
                                                                  ¤ Angels -1 -108
                                                                  __________________________
                                                                  Phillies price added.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • FUqer
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 01-22-15
                                                                    • 3968

                                                                    #768
                                                                    Wednesday Results 8/30

                                                                    ¤ Cardinals -116
                                                                    ¤ Phillies +104
                                                                    ¤ Mariners +125
                                                                    ¤ Blue Jays -107
                                                                    ¤ D-Backs +101
                                                                    ¤ Angels -1 -108
                                                                    __________________________
                                                                    Yesterday = 2-4 for -2.22
                                                                    ___________________________
                                                                    Since All Star Break

                                                                    ML = 61-65 for -0.23
                                                                    (Dogs = 33-31)
                                                                    (Favs = 28-34)

                                                                    RL = 34-19 for +15.15

                                                                    O/U = 30-38 for -10.91
                                                                    (Overs = 18-14)
                                                                    (Unders = 12-24)

                                                                    Parlays = 3-7 for -1.01

                                                                    Total = 128-129-11 +3.00
                                                                    __________________________
                                                                    Recent Results

                                                                    30th = 2-4 for -2.22
                                                                    29th = 1-0 for +1.13
                                                                    28th = 2-1 for +1.04
                                                                    27th = 4-1 for +2.95
                                                                    26th = 2-4 for -1.59
                                                                    25th = 4-1 for +3.28
                                                                    24th = 1-0 for +1.46
                                                                    23rd = 3-1 for +2.15
                                                                    22nd = 2-0 for +2.05
                                                                    ______________________________

                                                                    Seems like I go over 5 plays lately and it doesn't end up good and like my last losing day, I had a some blown leads. Mariners blew a 4 run lead, Cardinals blew a 2 run lead and the Blue Jays had a 1-0 lead with bases loaded and one out and couldn't score anymore the rest of the game and for awhile it looked like the Angels were going to blow a 3-0 lead. Whatever, it happens, it just happens a little too much to me this season. Onto the next day.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • FUqer
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 01-22-15
                                                                      • 3968

                                                                      #769
                                                                      Thursday Plays 8/31


                                                                      ¤ D-Backs -103
                                                                      ¤ Yankees -115
                                                                      ¤ Blue Jays +122
                                                                      ¤ Brewers -108

                                                                      ¤ Cardinals/Giants Over 7.5 -108
                                                                      __________________________
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • FUqer
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 01-22-15
                                                                        • 3968

                                                                        #770
                                                                        Cardinals = 15-0 Over

                                                                        Giants = 22-5 Over, 8-0 L8

                                                                        Orioles = 11-0 SU

                                                                        Brewers = +11.4% 1023-619

                                                                        Brewers = -57.2% 10-40, Under +15.4%

                                                                        Nationals = +8.7% 245-150

                                                                        Cubs = 25-1 SU and 23-2 SU and 18-2 SU

                                                                        Red Sox = 0-12 SU
                                                                        Comment
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