MLB 2017 - SDQL, Projections, Picks, Tracking, Discussion

**FUqer** · 08-18-17, 01:43 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

-Cubs -178

Mets -106
Red Sox -119
D-Backs -112
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The Pirates blowing another 4 run lead on back to back nights was about the last straw for me, I'm pretty much shutting down my lab work on the season and getting ready for football. I'm still gonna make these $20 plays for awhile, but I'm not really putting much time into it, maybe that will be a good thing and I won't over think things as much. I'll still keep my record updated and tend to the DOD thread as long as people post plays in it. I learned a lot this season and can't wait for next season, but I'm still not totally done this year, just shifting my focus. Good Luck All!

**thekoreanmang** · 08-19-17, 02:39 PM

Good luck and good job! Always appreciate your insights.

**FUqer** · 08-21-17, 03:40 PM

Monday Plays 8/21

¤ Pirates +130
¤ Braves -102
¤ Angels -1 -108
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**FUqer** · 08-22-17, 05:30 PM

Tuesday Plays 8/22

¤ Braves +105
¤ Brewers -107
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Fade material.

**FUqer** · 08-22-17, 05:52 PM

I got a couple of spots left in my FF league on Yahoo, so far it just my RL friends and most aren't that good. It's $20 to join, but you'll have to send via pay pal because I couldn't make it a cash league on Yahoo due to State laws for some members that live in Indiana. let me know if you're interested. The live draft will be August 29th at 9pm EST and it is a 1 pt PPR league 1 QB, 3 WR, 2 RB, 1 WR/RB/TE, 1 DEF, 1 K, 2 Def Players and 7 Bench, with no trades, sorry but trades cause conflict when in leagues with friends that aren't worth it. This is more a fun league with a cash prize.

1st place = $125 ( if gets 10 members and more if over 10 members)
2nd place = $50
Most Points Scored Regular Season = $25

**FUqer** · 08-23-17, 01:17 AM

Tuesday Results 8/22

¤ Braves +105
¤ Brewers -107
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Yesterday = 2-0 for +2.05
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Since All Star Break

ML = 49-56 for -4.20
(Dogs = 25-27)
(Favs = 24-29)

RL = 27-18 for +8.84

O/U = 30-37 for -9.83
(Overs = 18-14)
(Unders = 12-23)

Parlays = 3-6 for -0.01

Total = 109-117-11 -5.20
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Recent Results

22nd = 2-0 for +2.05
21st = 0-3 for - 3.10
18th = 2-2 for -0.18
17th = 0-2 for -2.08
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**FUqer** · 08-23-17, 01:12 PM

Wednesday Plays 8/23

¤ Phillies +107
¤ Blue Jays -111
¤ Royals -1 +108
¤ Padres +170
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**FUqer** · 08-23-17, 01:14 PM

The Blue Jays are 19-0 SU as a favorite after a game as a road dog in which their bullpen allowed multiple runs and it after the All-Star break.

Lost by 8 last game = -12.1 % ROI 438-571 (Cardinals, Indians)

-26.2% ROI 39-62 = (Cardinals)

HF WP% Under 50% vs WP% Over 50% in NL = 27-7 L34 +42.4% (Giants)

**FUqer** · 08-23-17, 11:15 PM

Wednesday Results 8/23

¤ Phillies +107
¤ Blue Jays -111
¤ Royals -1 +108
¤ Padres +170
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Yesterday = 3-1 for +2.15
___________________________
Since All Star Break

ML = 51-57 for -3.13
(Dogs = 26-28)
(Favs = 25-29)

RL = 28-18 for +9.92

O/U = 30-37 for -9.83
(Overs = 18-14)
(Unders = 12-23)

Parlays = 3-6 for -0.01

Total = 112-118-11 -3.05
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Recent Results

23rd = 3-1 for +2.15
22nd = 2-0 for +2.05
21st = 0-3 for -3.10
18th = 2-2 for -0.18
17th = 0-2 for -2.08
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**FUqer** · 08-24-17, 05:39 PM

I missed the 4 games I liked the most today and I'm hesitant to play on favs considering how well they have done so far today with the Dodgers currently leading also. I like the Cubs RL and Twins RL, but may just take a shot with the Indians.

**FUqer** · 08-24-17, 05:47 PM

Thursday Plays 8/24

¤ Indians +146
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**FUqer** · 08-24-17, 10:06 PM

Thursday Results 8/24

¤ Indians +146
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1-0 for +1.46
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Since All Star Break

ML = 52-57 for -1.67
(Dogs = 27-28)
(Favs = 25-29)

RL = 28-18 for +9.92

O/U = 30-37 for -9.83
(Overs = 18-14)
(Unders = 12-23)

Parlays = 3-6 for -0.01

Total = 113-118-11 -1.59
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Recent Results

24th = 1-0 for +1.46
23rd = 3-1 for +2.15
22nd = 2-0 for +2.05
21st = 0-3 for -3.10
18th = 2-2 for -0.18
17th = 0-2 for -2.08
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**FUqer** · 08-25-17, 05:52 PM

Friday Plays 8/25

¤ Mets -1 -111
¤ Braves -1 +118
¤ Indians -1 +110
¤ Astros +100

¤ Parlay: (Yankees/Tigers) +153
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**FUqer** · 08-26-17, 12:18 AM

Friday Results 8/25

¤ Mets -1 -111
¤ Braves -1 +118
¤ Indians -1 +110
¤ Astros +100

¤ Parlay: (Yankees/Tigers) +153
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Yesterday = 4-1 for +3.28
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Since All Star Break

ML = 53-57 for -0.67
(Dogs = 28-28)
(Favs = 25-29)

RL = 31-18 for +13.20

O/U = 30-37 for -9.83
(Overs = 18-14)
(Unders = 12-23)

Parlays = 3-7 for -1.01

Total = 117-119-11 +1.69
__________________________
Recent Results

25th = 4-1 for +3.28
24th = 1-0 for +1.46
23rd = 3-1 for +2.15
22nd = 2-0 for +2.05
21st = 0-3 for -3.10

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**FUqer** · 08-26-17, 05:26 AM

Saturday Plays 8/26

¤ Nationals RL -105
¤ Rangers -106
¤ Braves -112
¤ Padres +101
¤ Brewers +167

¤ Rangers/Athletics Under 9 -108
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**FUqer** · 08-27-17, 12:31 AM

Saturday Results 8/26

¤ Nationals RL -105
¤ Rangers -106
¤ Braves -112
¤ Padres +101
¤ Brewers +167

¤ Rangers/Athletics Under 9 -108
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Yesterday = 2-4 for -1.59
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Since All Star Break

ML = 54-60 for -2.18
(Dogs = 29-29)
(Favs = 25-31)

RL = 32-18 for +14.20

O/U = 30-38 for -10.91
(Overs = 18-14)
(Unders = 12-24)

Parlays = 3-7 for -1.01

Total = 119-123-11 +0.10
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Recent Results

26th = 2-4 for -1.59
25th = 4-1 for +3.28
24th = 1-0 for +1.46
23rd = 3-1 for +2.15
22nd = 2-0 for +2.05
21st = 0-3 for -3.10
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A couple late inning losses put a stop to my mini win streak. I dunno why I played another total, let alone an Under, dee dee on me.

**FUqer** · 08-27-17, 11:54 AM

Sunday Plays 8/27

¤ Indians RL +100
¤ Pirates -109
¤ Rays -119
¤ Red Sox -1 -105
¤ Athletics -108
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**FUqer** · 08-27-17, 12:05 PM

Diamondbacks -7.9%

Athletics = +11.6%

Rays +19.8% 500+ gms

Orioles are 19-0 RL

The Brewers are 0-19 SU

Diamondbacks are 0-14 OU

Marlins +24.1% 108-42

**FUqer** · 08-27-17, 07:19 PM

Sunday Results 8/27

¤ Indians RL +100
¤ Pirates -109
¤ Rays -119
¤ Red Sox -1 -105
¤ Athletics -108
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4-1 for +2.95
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Since All Star Break

ML = 57-60 for +0.82
(Dogs = 29-29)
(Favs = 28-31)

RL = 33-19 for +14.15

O/U = 30-38 for -10.91
(Overs = 18-14)
(Unders = 12-24)

Parlays = 3-7 for -1.01

Total = 123-124-11 +3.05
__________________________
Recent Results

27th = 4-1 for +2.95
26th = 2-4 for -1.59
25th = 4-1 for +3.28
24th = 1-0 for +1.46
23rd = 3-1 for +2.15
22nd = 2-0 for +2.05
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**FUqer** · 08-28-17, 03:40 AM

Monday Plays 8/28

¤ Red Sox +107
¤ Indians +100
¤ Padres -103
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Back to normal unit amount for one last run.

**FUqer** · 08-28-17, 04:23 PM

Only one spot left for FF, $20 entry. Draft tomorrow at 9 pm on Yahoo. PM for details.

**Cardinals01** · 08-28-17, 04:39 PM

Good luck in the draft tomorrow.
Have you been able to adjust these formulas for college football and NFL? Any certain conferences or trends stand out heading into the year? Appreciate the time and analysis you put in.

**FUqer** · 08-28-17, 09:56 PM

Originally posted by Cardinals01

Good luck in the draft tomorrow.
Have you been able to adjust these formulas for college football and NFL? Any certain conferences or trends stand out heading into the year? Appreciate the time and analysis you put in.

Yea, it all works the same and can be helpful, but IMO,maybe not as good for football, because they don't play as many games. I find it useful for all sports though to look up certain spots and trends. For football I run a model after the first month and for college basketball, I use KenPom a lot and a model after the first month or so. I use SDQL and spot betting for NHL, I don't have a model yet for that. I'll prolly start a football thread sometime soon and post some SDQL in it.

**FUqer** · 08-28-17, 11:53 PM

Monday Results 8/28

¤ Red Sox +107
¤ Indians +100
¤ Padres -103
__________________________
Yesterday = 2-1 for +1.04
___________________________
Since All Star Break

ML = 59-61 for +1.86
(Dogs = 31-29)
(Favs = 28-32)

RL = 33-19 for +14.15

O/U = 30-38 for -10.91
(Overs = 18-14)
(Unders = 12-24)

Parlays = 3-7 for -1.01

Total = 125-125-11 +4.09
__________________________
Recent Results

28th = 2-1 for +1.04
27th = 4-1 for +2.95
26th = 2-4 for -1.59
25th = 4-1 for +3.28
24th = 1-0 for +1.46
23rd = 3-1 for +2.15
22nd = 2-0 for +2.05
______________________________

**FUqer** · 08-29-17, 03:24 AM

Tuesday Plays 8/29

¤ Phillies -106
¤ D-Backs +113
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**Cardinals01** · 08-29-17, 07:05 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

Yea, it all works the same and can be helpful, but IMO,maybe not as good for football, because they don't play as many games. I find it useful for all sports though to look up certain spots and trends. For football I run a model after the first month and for college basketball, I use KenPom a lot and a model after the first month or so. I use SDQL and spot betting for NHL, I don't have a model yet for that. I'll prolly start a football thread sometime soon and post some SDQL in it.

Awesome, look forward to it. Thanks for the response.
Great work the past week.

**FUqer** · 08-29-17, 12:26 PM

Originally posted by Cardinals01

Awesome, look forward to it. Thanks for the response.
Great work the past week.

No prob, thanks for stopping in.

**FUqer** · 08-29-17, 12:33 PM

Mariners -35.9% ROI 50-138
Mariners 0-13 SU

Rays +10.0 ROI 548-383

Blue Jays +23.8% ROI 78-57

Padres +11.5% ROI 1021-617

Giants +14.7% ROI 93-95

White Sox 0-22 SU

Indians 0-21 SU
Yankees 15-0 SU

Yankees 0-15 Under

Twins 0-13 Under

Astros, Brewers, D-Backs, Reds, Twins = Over +11.9% ROI 79-55

**FUqer** · 08-29-17, 01:03 PM

A couple parlays for some action, since I only have two plays today.

**FUqer** · 08-30-17, 12:39 AM

Tuesday Results 8/29

~~¤ Phillies -106~~
¤ D-Backs +113
__________________________
Yesterday = 1-0 for +1.13
___________________________
Since All Star Break

ML = 60-61 for +2.99
(Dogs = 32-29)
(Favs = 28-32)

RL = 33-19 for +14.15

O/U = 30-38 for -10.91
(Overs = 18-14)
(Unders = 12-24)

Parlays = 3-7 for -1.01

Total = 126-125-11 +5.22
__________________________
Recent Results

29th = 1-0 for +1.13
28th = 2-1 for +1.04
27th = 4-1 for +2.95
26th = 2-4 for -1.59
25th = 4-1 for +3.28
24th = 1-0 for +1.46
23rd = 3-1 for +2.15
22nd = 2-0 for +2.05
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I also hit on one of the parlays above, but it was knocked down to a 5 teamer due to cancellations.

**FUqer** · 08-30-17, 02:46 AM

Wednesday Plays 8/30

¤ Cardinals -116
¤ Phillies TBA
¤ Mariners +125
¤ Blue Jays -107
¤ D-Backs +101
¤ Angels -1 -108
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**FUqer** · 08-30-17, 11:02 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

Wednesday Plays 8/30

¤ Cardinals -116
¤ Phillies +104
¤ Mariners +125
¤ Blue Jays -107
¤ D-Backs +101
¤ Angels -1 -108
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Phillies price added.

**FUqer** · 08-31-17, 12:58 AM

Wednesday Results 8/30

¤ Cardinals -116
¤ Phillies +104
¤ Mariners +125
¤ Blue Jays -107
¤ D-Backs +101
¤ Angels -1 -108
__________________________
Yesterday = 2-4 for -2.22
___________________________
Since All Star Break

ML = 61-65 for -0.23
(Dogs = 33-31)
(Favs = 28-34)

RL = 34-19 for +15.15

O/U = 30-38 for -10.91
(Overs = 18-14)
(Unders = 12-24)

Parlays = 3-7 for -1.01

Total = 128-129-11 +3.00
__________________________
Recent Results

30th = 2-4 for -2.22
29th = 1-0 for +1.13
28th = 2-1 for +1.04
27th = 4-1 for +2.95
26th = 2-4 for -1.59
25th = 4-1 for +3.28
24th = 1-0 for +1.46
23rd = 3-1 for +2.15
22nd = 2-0 for +2.05
______________________________

Seems like I go over 5 plays lately and it doesn't end up good and like my last losing day, I had a some blown leads. Mariners blew a 4 run lead, Cardinals blew a 2 run lead and the Blue Jays had a 1-0 lead with bases loaded and one out and couldn't score anymore the rest of the game and for awhile it looked like the Angels were going to blow a 3-0 lead. Whatever, it happens, it just happens a little too much to me this season. Onto the next day.

**FUqer** · 08-31-17, 03:22 AM

Thursday Plays 8/31

¤ D-Backs -103
¤ Yankees -115
¤ Blue Jays +122
¤ Brewers -108

¤ Cardinals/Giants Over 7.5 -108
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**FUqer** · 08-31-17, 02:03 PM

Cardinals = 15-0 Over

Giants = 22-5 Over, 8-0 L8

Orioles = 11-0 SU

Brewers = +11.4% 1023-619

Brewers = -57.2% 10-40, Under +15.4%

Nationals = +8.7% 245-150

Cubs = 25-1 SU and 23-2 SU and 18-2 SU

Red Sox = 0-12 SU