MLB 2017 - SDQL, Projections, Picks, Tracking, Discussion

[FUqer]

My guesses on a few others..


Marlins and Under (Suspect Line and bad travel spot for Giants)


Rockies and Over (Rockies 23-6 as HF on 3 game losing streak, Bettis set for an emotional return.)


Phillies and Under (Phillies 32-11 I think it is in SD and the number seems suspect on the total)

[FUqer]

Monday Results 8/14

»-Cubs -1.5 -103
»-D-Backs -1 -115
»-Athletics -112

»-Tigers/Rangers FF Under 6 -110
»-Royals/Athletics Over 9 -113
»-Orioles/Mariners FF Under 5 -115
__________________________
Yesterday = 2-4 for -2.50
___________________________
Bankroll = 2282 / 3000
___________________________
Since All Star Break

ML = 43-45 for +0.94
(Dogs = 23-20)
(Favs = 20-25)

RL = 26-14 for +11.87

O/U = 29-36 for -9.63
(Overs = 17-14)
(Unders = 12-22)

Parlays = 3-5 for +0.99

Total = 101-100-11 +4.17

__________________________
Recent Results

14th = 2-4 for -2.50
13th = 2-3 for -0.37
12th = 1-3 for -1.85
11th = 6-2-2 for +4.10
10th = 2-7-1 for -5.72
9th = 1-3 for -2.09
8th = 4-3 for +2.47
7th = 3-2 for +1.47
6th = 2-3-1 for -0.95
5th = 3-2 for +1.14
4th = 4-3 for +0.69
3rd = 2-0 for +2.00
2nd = 3-0 for +3.52
1st = 2-7-1 for -5.27
31st = 1-2 for -1.05
30th = 6-4-2 for +2.08
29th = 2-3 for -1.19
28th = 9-4 for +5.59
27th = 3-3 for -0.09
26th = 5-2-1 for +3.28
25th = 5-6-1 for -1.15
24th = 4-2 for +2.28
23th = 2-1 for +1.17
______________________________
Enough FF's totals for me and a total will have to be really good for me to play it for the rest of the season. Not enough time left to be BS'ing around anymore.

[FUqer]

Tuesday Plays 8/15

»-Giants -106
»-Rays +109
»-Angels +108

»-Parlay: {Cubs -168 / Indians -165 / Giants -106} +398
__________________________

Straily 4-0 vs Giants, lost L6 overall tho, Marlins 3-9 L12 vs lefties, 2-8 at Home this season, 6 str8 Unders.

Estrada lost last 7 vs Rays, three this year, all big.

Angels vs LHP 6-1 L7, 5-0 L5 on Road, 12-6 on Road this season vs LHP. Angels beat Gio earlier 7-0, big price drop again from -130.

Astros lost last 7 vs lefties.

[FUqer]

SDQL 8/15

ALL = Yesterday 5-3 (Total 133-120)
SU = Yesterday 3-1(Total 84-63)
OU = Yesterday 2-2 (Total 49-57)

Pre All-Star Break

ALL - (Total 441-346)
SU - (Total 223-171)
OU - (Total 218-185)
---------------------------------

SU

FADE: The White Sox are 0-21 SU as a road 130-plus dog off a home game when playing a team that has a better record and it is after the All-Star break.

team = White Sox and A and line>=130 and p:H and WP < o:WP and AASB and date >= 20070731



FADE: The White Sox and Mariners (436-569 -12.2% ROI)

p:margin=-8




PLAY: The Red Sox are 22-1 SU as a favorite in the first game of a series after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks.

team = Red Sox and F and 5 <= po:walks and p:L and SG = 1 and date >= 20120824



PLAY: The Red Sox are 8-0 L8 as a Favorite.

team=Red Sox and F and date>=20170801



PLAY: The Rockies and Yankees (57-27 +23.9% ROI)

H and line > -150 and line < 103 and p:W and season = 2017 and total in [8 , 10.5 , 11.5]



PLAY: The Angels (276-253 +20.4% ROI)

AD and season > 2010 and month != 7 and p:hits < 8 and pp:hits > 6 and 18 > ppp:hits > 2 and pppp:hits > 5 and 17 > ppppp:hits > 4 and 16 > op:hits > 6 and s:SRA < 6 and streak > -5 and SG < 4 and line < 190 and total < 10.01 and 1.9 > STDSWHIP > 1.2



-----------------------------------

OU

OVER: The Reds are 17-0 OU since Apr 15, 2016 as a 170+ dog after they used 5+ pitchers last game.

team=Reds and line>=+170 and p:PU>=5 and date>=20160415



OVER: The Reds have went Over 9 straight games.

team=Reds and date>=20170806



UNDER: The Marlins are 0-15 OU after the All-Star break as a home dog of more than 110 off a home game in which their starter went less than eight innings and their bullpen did not allow a run.

team = Marlins and H and line>110 and p:H and p:SIP<8 and p:BPRA = 0 and AASB and date >= 20130900



OVER: The Rockies are 12-0 OU at home off a home game that was tied at the end of at least six separate innings and it is after the All-Star break.

team = Rockies and H and p:H and p:IT >= 6 and AASB and date >= 20050811



__________________________

SU

Dodgers
Orioles
Red Sox
Yankees
Rockies
Angels

OU

Reds/Cubs Over
Giants/Marlins Under
Braves/Rockies Over
___________________________________

If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best underdog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...______________

[FUqer]

Home Dogs on 5 game losing streaks are +13.1% ROI and since 2015 they are +26.6% ROI and 12-2 L14. (Mariners 3-7, 0-4 L4 in spot)

Home Dogs on 4 game winning streaks are -16.8% ROI and since 2015 they are -23.3% ROI and 0-8 L8. (Marlins 3-9, 0-4 L4 in spot.)

[FUqer]

What's up man.

If you're an SQL man, I would like to talk to you sometime.

SQL is something I have not learned, but with my knowledge and your database expertise, I think we can probably make something better than what "I" have now, which is already amazing, but running off Excel, so my sorting options and ways to manipulate data are limited.

Get at me.

Just shoot a PM or whatever, it's been a busy week for me but it will slow down again after this weekend. I glanced over your thread today and it looks interesting and nicely organized. I do some similar systems but always interested in seeing how some others do. GL!

[FUqer]

I usually throw my leans in on big parlays just for fun and usually do decent at them. Easier for me to just post the tickets.

8/15/17 2:22pm	$0.50	$121.22	Pending	9 Team Parlay
				Pending	8/15/17 7:40pm MLB Baseball 953 Pittsburgh Pirates/Milwaukee Brewers Under 9 -105* (I Nova - R must Start Z Davies - R must Start)
				Pending	8/15/17 8:05pm MLB Baseball 956 Chicago Cubs -167* vs Cincinnati Reds (L Castillo - R must Start K Hendricks - R must Start)
				Pending	8/15/17 10:10pm MLB Baseball 959 Philadelphia Phillies Under 3½ -110* vs San Diego Padres (M Leiter - R must Start D Lamet - R must Start)
				Pending	8/15/17 7:05pm MLB Baseball 961 Tampa Bay Rays Over 4½ -115* vs Toronto Blue Jays (B Snell - L must Start M Estrada - R must Start)
				Pending	8/15/17 8:10pm MLB Baseball 965 Cleveland Indians Over 5 -125* vs Minnesota Twins (D Salazar - R must Start B Colon - R must Start)
				Pending	8/15/17 10:05pm MLB Baseball 967 Kansas City Royals Over 4½ -105* vs Oakland Athletics (J Hammel - R must Start C Smith - R must Start)
				Pending	8/15/17 7:05pm MLB Baseball 973 New York Mets Over 3½ -105* vs New York Yankees (J deGrom - R must Start S Gray - R must Start)
				Pending	8/15/17 7:05pm MLB Baseball 975 Los Angeles Angels Over 4 -125* vs Washington Nationals (T Skaggs - L must Start G Gonzalez - L must Start)
				Pending	8/15/17 8:05pm MLB Baseball 963 Detroit Tigers 1st 5 Innings -130* vs Texas Rangers (A Verlander - R must Start A Griffin - R must Start)

8/15/17 2:13pm	$0.50	$435.40	Pending	10 Team Parlay
				Pending	8/15/17 7:10pm MLB Baseball 951 San Francisco Giants -106* vs Miami Marlins (M Bumgarner - L must Start D Straily - R must Start)
				Pending	8/15/17 7:40pm MLB Baseball 953 Pittsburgh Pirates +107* vs Milwaukee Brewers (I Nova - R must Start Z Davies - R must Start)
				Pending	8/15/17 10:10pm MLB Baseball 960 San Diego Padres -150* vs Philadelphia Phillies (M Leiter - R must Start D Lamet - R must Start)
				Pending	8/15/17 7:05pm MLB Baseball 961 Tampa Bay Rays +108* vs Toronto Blue Jays (B Snell - L must Start M Estrada - R must Start)
				Pending	8/15/17 8:05pm MLB Baseball 963 Detroit Tigers -112* vs Texas Rangers (A Verlander - R must Start A Griffin - R must Start)
				Pending	8/15/17 10:10pm MLB Baseball 969 Baltimore Orioles +104* vs Seattle Mariners (W Miley - L must Start A Albers - L must Start)
				Pending	8/15/17 3:40pm MLB Baseball 972 Arizona Diamondbacks +100* vs Houston Astros (B Peacock - R must Start A Banda - L must Start)
				Pending	8/15/17 7:05pm MLB Baseball 973 New York Mets +137* vs New York Yankees (J deGrom - R must Start S Gray - R must Start)
				Pending	8/15/17 7:05pm MLB Baseball 975 Los Angeles Angels -102* vs Washington Nationals (T Skaggs - L must Start G Gonzalez - L must Start)
				Pending	8/15/17 7:10pm MLB Baseball 978 Boston Red Sox -138* vs St. Louis Cardinals (M Leake - R must Start R Porcello - R must Start)

$0.50	$16.92	Pending	6 Team Parlay
				Pending	8/15/17 7:10pm MLB Baseball 951 San Francisco Giants/Miami Marlins Under 8 -122* (M Bumgarner - L must Start D Straily - R must Start)
				Pending	8/15/17 8:05pm MLB Baseball 955 Cincinnati Reds/Chicago Cubs Over 7½ -122* (L Castillo - R must Start K Hendricks - R must Start)
				Pending	8/15/17 10:05pm MLB Baseball 967 Kansas City Royals/Oakland Athletics Over 8½ -120* (J Hammel - R must Start C Smith - R must Start)
				Pending	8/15/17 10:10pm MLB Baseball 969 Baltimore Orioles/Seattle Mariners Under 9½ -120* (W Miley - L must Start A Albers - L must Start)
				Pending	8/15/17 7:10pm MLB Baseball 977 St. Louis Cardinals/Boston Red Sox Under 10 -130* (M Leake - R must Start R Porcello - R must Start)
				Pending	8/15/17 10:10pm MLB Baseball 979 Chicago White Sox/Los Angeles Dodgers Under 9 -130* (M Gonzalez - R must Start A Wood - L must Start)

[2daBank]

The problem w doing those is it kills me when I actually hit one and only had such a small amount on it!! Lol. Gl bro

[2daBank]

Think I saw you mention 6 straight unders w marlins vs lefties? Didn't they face a lefty yesterday and it went over?

[FUqer]

Think I saw you mention 6 straight unders w marlins vs lefties? Didn't they face a lefty yesterday and it went over?

Yea you're right, when I looked it up it was before game ended and database updated and I wasn't too interested so I never followed it up.

It happens with my SDQL post also, for some trends they may have to do with the line being in a certain range and it's within the range when I post it, but out of range by the time the game starts. But, I don't have time to keep up on it everyday in detail like that. I've mentioned it before and told people to pay attention to things like that if their basing their play on a certain trend like that. I actually got caught with it last night in the Oakland game, one of the things that put me over the top was that they were a losing team favored over a winning team, but then the line went south and they became dogs and that angle was invalid. Prolly better to wait as long as possible in those close call situations when playing on line systems, like I do with my 30/30 system.

[2daBank]

Ah right on. Yea def seems prudent to wait on one like the losing team fav over winning.

Your sdql isn't huge part for me but I do like seeing what you have on a game after I've capped it and if it one I think has merit I will use it in making my decision so I def appreciate the work buddy!!

[FUqer]

__________________________

Straily 4-0 vs Giants, lost L6 overall tho, Marlins 4-9 L13 vs lefties, 3-8 at Home this season, Under 6-1 L7.

Correction for Marlins vs lefties as the their win last night was included.

[2daBank]

I really like the over in Boston tonight!

[FUqer]

Ah right on. Yea def seems prudent to wait on one like the losing team fav over winning.

Your sdql isn't huge part for me but I do like seeing what you have on a game after I've capped it and if it one I think has merit I will use it in making my decision so I def appreciate the work buddy!!

yea in cases like Oakland it is, it was pretty safe when the Cardinals were in that spot last week at a higher price and it does a lot better for NL teams in those spots too, but it was starting to heat up for AL, so I was gonna try it and the line got away and I wish I hadn't.

SDQL is just another tool in the box, I prolly use the less attractive smaller queries I look up for individual match-ups that I don't post, more than the attractive streaky ones some of them dating back 10 years, but I post them and let people use them as they wish and there is all kinds of simple filters people can add to the queries I post to increase ROI. I do like the larger samples with long term, recent and specific team success though and will give those a lot of weight. I always run my model first and select out games and then do SDQL to narrow it down.

[FUqer]

I really like the over in Boston tonight!

I've about given up on totals this season. Reds on longest Over streak of the season tho at 9 str8 Overs, don't really love the Over tho.

[FUqer]

I haven't done too many FF plays this year but it seems half of them been on Fulmer, either side or Under, trying to be smart and avoid their bullpen and it always ends up like last night, Over FF but Under for the game. Something wrong with Fulmer lately, getting smashed on the Road, fatigue or something. I kind of like Detroit again FF tonight and the Under, but I'm not messing with it.

[FUqer]

The problem w doing those is it kills me when I actually hit one and only had such a small amount on it!! Lol. Gl bro

6 team NFL parlays for fun was my gateway into sports betting, up until 2015, that's all I did. What kills me is hitting like 9 out of 10 on one, that hurts. They present some good hedge opportunities though sometimes.

[2daBank]

I haven't done too many FF plays this year but it seems half of them been on Fulmer, either side or Under, trying to be smart and avoid their bullpen and it always ends up like last night, Over FF but Under for the game. Something wrong with Fulmer lately, getting smashed on the Road, fatigue or something. I kind of like Detroit again FF tonight and the Under, but I'm not messing with it.

I like the ff under in Miami opposed to full game just cause pens worry me on such a low total.

[FUqer]

Thoughts at glancing at tomorrows card.


Giants if they happen to lose tonight, teams who got swept at Home, almost always take at least one game in the next series.

Pirates and the Under, Two good pitchers and without looking up exact numbers, I believe Cole and these two teams have a good history of Unders in Milwaukee.

Padres, not a bad number to fade Pivetta and the Phillies on the Road, will be better if Padres are going for the sweep as HF's.

Cubs and Over, they have destroyed the Reds as of late 11-2 L13 at Home vs them, winning all of them by 2 or more and the Reds are on 9 stre8 Overs going into tonight's game and Lackey and Bailey are highly capable of producing an Over.

Rockies, not sure how Folty will do in that park, will need to look up some things, but Rockies may be HF's going for the sweep.

Royals, Duffy vs the A's seems like a good match-up with the Royals bats pretty hot right now. Would need to look at match-up numbers.

Orioles, hard to take Jimenez, but the Orioles have been winning and last time I checked they were winning a lot vs lefties.

Rays/Blue Jays Under - Two good pitchers and sputtering offenses, could be a low scoring game.

Rangers, Hamels getting a little spect finally, but Tigers always a potential danger vs a lefty, need to see match-up history.

Indians, I expect them to cool down the Twins a little and keep it going with the pressure they got behind them in their division. They swept the Twins in MIN earlier this season, then turned around and got swept their last series in CLE.

Mets, they have struggled again vs lefties, but I may want to take a look at them here.

Cardinals and Under - Looks like a Under to me with those pitchers.

D-Backs, I haven't seen any signs the Astros are ready to play again.

[FUqer]

I like the ff under in Miami opposed to full game just cause pens worry me on such a low total.

Let's hope Stanton doesn't get too many pitches to hit, I'm relying on the Giants tonight.

[2daBank]

Let's hope Stanton doesn't get too many pitches to hit, I'm relying on the Giants tonight.

He has sick numbers vs mad bum but he only one so I would think he be really careful w him!

[FUqer]

The Dodgers 15-0 SU L15 coming off a Home win.

15-0 (1.73, 100.0%)

avg line: -242.2 / 218.2

on / against: +$1,500 / -$1,500

ROI: +42.7% / -100.0%

The Dodgers 29-2 SU coming off a Home win since 5/26/2017.

29-2 (2.74, 93.5%)

avg line: -212.0 / 191.7

on / against: +$2,557 / -$2,592

ROI: +39.8% / -83.5%

[FUqer]

He has sick numbers vs mad bum but he only one so I would think he be really careful w him!

Seems like everyday lately, I'm scoreboard watching and it lights up green from a Stanton homer.

[FUqer]

"Stanton cleared waivers on Sunday, multiple sources told Yahoo Sports, allowing the Marlins to deal him to any team through the end of August."

At least four teams have inquired about the possibility of trading for him, sources said.

Wondering if they are even considering it.

[FUqer]

I guess they were close to trading him before July 31st, so it may be a possibility.

[FUqer]

Tuesday Plays 8/15

»-Giants -106
»-Rays +109
»-Angels +108
»-Pirates +122
»-Tigers -1 +123

»-Parlay: {Cubs -168 / Indians -165 / Giants -106} +398
__________________________

Additions.

[FUqer]

Added.

»-Orioles +100

[OlDirtyBaztid]

Added.

»-Orioles +100

right there with you. liked that late movement

[FUqer]

Tuesday Results 8/15

»-Giants -106
»-Rays +109
»-Angels +108
»-Pirates +122
»-Tigers -1 +123
»-Orioles +100

»-Parlay: {Cubs -168 / Indians -165 / Giants -106} +398
__________________________
Yesterday = 2-5 for -2.91
___________________________
Bankroll = 2137 / 3000
___________________________
Since All Star Break

ML = 45-48 for +0.03
(Dogs = 24-23)
(Favs = 21-25)

RL = 26-15 for +10.87

O/U = 29-36 for -9.63
(Overs = 17-14)
(Unders = 12-22)

Parlays = 3-6 for -0.01

Total = 103-105-11 +1.26

__________________________
Recent Results

15th = 2-5 for -2.91
14th = 2-4 for -2.50
13th = 2-3 for -0.37
12th = 1-3 for -1.85
11th = 6-2-2 for +4.10
10th = 2-7-1 for -5.72
9th = 1-3 for -2.09
8th = 4-3 for +2.47
7th = 3-2 for +1.47
6th = 2-3-1 for -0.95
5th = 3-2 for +1.14
4th = 4-3 for +0.69
3rd = 2-0 for +2.00
2nd = 3-0 for +3.52
1st = 2-7-1 for -5.27
31st = 1-2 for -1.05
30th = 6-4-2 for +2.08
29th = 2-3 for -1.19
28th = 9-4 for +5.59
27th = 3-3 for -0.09
26th = 5-2-1 for +3.28
25th = 5-6-1 for -1.15
24th = 4-2 for +2.28
23th = 2-1 for +1.17
______________________________

The Cubs loss totally ruined my night, killing my +391 parlay and yet another night where If I wouldn't of added any later plays it would of been a winning night. I'm back in a slump after a great July. Today is another day to get it turned around.

[FUqer]

Wednesday Plays 8/16

»-Pirates +113
»-Athletics +121
»-Rays +127
»-Rangers RL +105
»-Red Sox RL +140

»-Pirates/Brewers Under 8.5 -120
»-Royals/Athletics Over 9 -110
__________________________

[FUqer]

SDQL 8/16

ALL = Yesterday 3-6 (Total 136-126)
SU = Yesterday 3-3(Total 87-66)
OU = Yesterday 0-3 (Total 49-60)

Pre All-Star Break

ALL - (Total 441-346)
SU - (Total 223-171)
OU - (Total 218-185)
---------------------------------

SU

FADE: The Cardinals (10-39 -56.4% ROI)

150>=line>=100 and P:A and P:season=season and P:margin<=-6 and 54>=WP>=51 and total>8 and 2009<=season



PLAY: The Red Sox are 9-0 L9 as a Favorite.

team=Red Sox and F and date>=20170801



PLAY: The Dodgers 16-0 SU coming off a Home win.

team=Dodgers and p:HW and date>=20170705



PLAY: The Dodgers 30-2 SU coming off a Home win since 5/26/2017.

team=Dodgers and p:HW and date>=20170526



PLAY: The Athletics (1014-612 +11.5% ROI)

H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)



FADE: The Giants are 2-23 SU since August 1st 2014 as a dog of more than 130 in the last game of the series.

team = Giants and line>130 and LGS and date >= 20140800



FADE: The Giants are 4-18 SU since Aug 08, 2015 as a dog after they allowed 12+ hits last game.

team=Giants and D and po:hits >=12 and date>=20150808



-----------------------------------

OU

OVER: Teams on at least 3 str8 Overs. (196-145 +9.4% ROI)
(Padres, Cardinals)

date>=20170420 and p:O and p2:O and p3:O



__________________________

SU

Red Sox
Dodgers
Athletics
Marlins

OU

Phillies/Padres Over
Cardinals/Red Sox Over

___________________________________

If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best underdog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...lb-2017-a.html

[FUqer]

Wednesday Results 8/16

»-Pirates +113
»-Athletics +121
»-Rays +127

»-Rangers RL +105
»-Red Sox RL +140

»-Pirates/Brewers Under 8.5 -120
»-Royals/Athletics Over 9 -110
__________________________
Yesterday = 2-5 for -3.15
___________________________
Bankroll = 1979 / 3000
___________________________
Since All Star Break

ML = 45-51 for -2.97
(Dogs = 24-26)
(Favs = 21-25)

RL = 27-16 for +10.92

O/U = 30-37 for -9.83
(Overs = 18-14)
(Unders = 12-23)

Parlays = 3-6 for -0.01
Total = 105-110-11 -1.89
__________________________
Recent Results


16th = 2-5 for -3.15
15th = 2-5 for -2.91
14th = 2-4 for -2.50
13th = 2-3 for -0.37
12th = 1-3 for -1.85
11th = 6-2-2 for +4.10
______________________________
Another losing day, I'm dropping to $20 units until this losing streak is over. I'm also switching up some things and stopping plays on totals completely, both changes should save me a lot of time. I'm going to start being more disciplined and act like I'm betting big money on each pick. One thing is certain, I'm going to keep pushing along because this season is about the experience for me more so then the money.

Teams with RISP have been killing me all week and again last night. The A's were 1-9 with RISP, the Rays were 0-6 with RISP and 9 LOB. I forget which game it was, but one team had 0 outs and bases loaded and didn't score, that's just pathetic.

The Pirates blew a 4-0 lead, retook it in the 8th and lost it again and gave up 5 HR's in the process.

The A's come back to tie after being down 3 runs, only to lose it in the 9th.

I paid the price for taking the RL on the Home team with the Red Sox, but at least won one with Texas.

[FUqer]

The Padres and Pirates will most likely be my only plays today but I'm in no rush because the lines should come down.

[FUqer]

Thursday Plays 8/17


¤ Pirates -1 +101
¤ Padres -108
__________________________

[FUqer]

-Cubs -178