MLB 2017 - SDQL, Projections, Picks, Tracking, Discussion

[FUqer]

Originally Posted by FUqer
Friday Plays 6/30

»-Indians -101
»-Royals -114
»-Cardinals -121
»-Rays -125
»-Mariners -101 (Action)
»-White Sox +112
»-Giants +110
»-Reds -1 +131

»-Braves/Athletics Over 8.5 -103
»-Mariners/Angels Over 9 -103
»-Indians/Tigers Under 10 -103
»-Giants/Pirates Under 8 +102
»-Dodgers/Padres Over 7.5 -103
»-Phillies/Mets Over 8.5 -110
»-Twins/Royals Over 9 +102
----------------------------------------------

I added four more plays to make a 15 play night for the 2nd time this week, yikes. The two side adds were mostly based on suspect lines and the two totals were two I've been waiting on and was surprised by the line movement. I feel better about backing the Reds tonight than I did last night. Risking a substantial amount of my bankroll tonight, wish me luck and good luck to you all.

[OlDirtyBaztid]

i was just about to ask you what your take was on that jump for pirates, but i see you acted on it. lol. i may join you. what do you think that was all about?

[FUqer]

i was just about to ask you what your take was on that jump for pirates, but i see you acted on it. lol. i may join you. what do you think that was all about?

no idea, my guess since it was late was that someone laid one big bet on them, but looks like I made the right decisions with them and the Reds lines, didn't notice the Marlins jump till late and decided I had too many plays. It sucks 2 of my favorite plays got canceled with the Indians game.

[OlDirtyBaztid]

no idea, my guess since it was late was that someone laid one big bet on them, but looks like I made the right decisions with them and the Reds lines, didn't notice the Marlins jump till late and decided I had too many plays. It sucks 2 of my favorite plays got canceled with the Indians game.

i was about to lay a large one on the brewers and noticed the jump. i wanted to take the fish but i can NEVER get on the right side and they killed me the last week or so. literally only them so i left it alone. i caught the red sox at the last second as well as the reds. i was on the over for detroit so i was right there with you. red sox scared the sh*t out of me. i wasn't even paying attention to the pitcher, just saw how bad the line dropped from the open and slammed it. looked and saw fister and thought it was over with. glad you got a decent chuck of change today. i couldn't pull the trigger on the giants. do it again tomorrow!

[FUqer]

i was about to lay a large one on the brewers and noticed the jump. i wanted to take the fish but i can NEVER get on the right side and they killed me the last week or so. literally only them so i left it alone. i caught the red sox at the last second as well as the reds. i was on the over for detroit so i was right there with you. red sox scared the sh*t out of me. i wasn't even paying attention to the pitcher, just saw how bad the line dropped from the open and slammed it. looked and saw fister and thought it was over with. glad you got a decent chuck of change today. i couldn't pull the trigger on the giants. do it again tomorrow!

Nice, I didn't even know who won that Red Sox game until I just looked. They will prolly crush them tomorrow and the total looks a little high for Sale a lefty vs the Jays, a weak hitting lefty team. Unders seem like they been making a comeback the last 4 or 5 days.

[FUqer]

Originally Posted by FUqer
Friday Results 6/30

»-Indians -101
»-Royals -114
»-Cardinals -121
»-Rays -125
»-Mariners -101 (Action)
»-White Sox +112
»-Giants +110
»-Reds -1 +131

»-Braves/Athletics Over 8.5 -103
»-Mariners/Angels Over 9 -103
»-Indians/Tigers Under 10 -103
»-Giants/Pirates Under 8 +102
»-Dodgers/Padres Over 7.5 -103
»-Phillies/Mets Over 8.5 -110
»-Twins/Royals Over 9 +102
___________________________

Yesterday = 9-3-1 = +6.40
___________________________
Bankroll = 2290 / 3000
___________________________

7-0 with side plays, how did that happen? The White Sox actually made up a little for one of the many times they screwed me over with their lucky last inning comeback, I feel for Ranger backers, been on the other side too many times this season. At least it didn't go into extra inning where I'm 0-29 this season, haha.

I really wish I could of got that 8.5 in the Royals game, I said I didn't really want to take that 9, but did anyway and got the push. Despite a good night I can still take away a few learning nuggets from it. It makes me very wary of tomorrow, because it been awhile since I had back to back good days.

I did add 1,000 to my bankroll after all, like I talked about doing last week, mostly winnings from tailing The Lock and the Salami last week when the Over was easy money. So my total bankroll increased from 2000 to 3000, my current balance, went from 1290 to 2290 total.

My volume is getting higher because I rarely played any totals my first two MLB seasons and now I'm getting into them more and I've always been a 5 or 6 side player and on nights like tonight when I have a lot of plays, that's a huge chunk of my bankroll out one night.

[FUqer]

SDQL 7/1

ALL = Yesterday 8-7-1 (Total 383-318)
SU = Yesterday 4-2 (Total 200-156)
OU = Yesterday 4-5-1 (Total 183-162)
---------------------------------

SU

PLAY: The White Sox (989-594 +11.7% ROI)

H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)



PLAY: The Blue Jays (77-54 +25.9% ROI and 5-0 this season)

division = o:division and HD and line>=100<=145 and SG=2 and p:L and p:HF and WP<50



PLAY: The Mariners (536-376 +9.8% ROI)

(p:margin = Maximum(margin@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200) and (p:BL = Maximum(BL@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200)



PLAY: The Mariners are 13-1 SU when their line is within 20 cents of pick-em off a game as a favorite in which they scored in at least five separate innings.

team = Mariners and -120 <= line <= 120 and p:F and p:SII >= 5 and season >= 2006



PLAY: Teams are 30-6 SU the last two seasons as a Home Favorite on Saturday when they lost the previous game at Home as a dog.
(Angels and Orioles)

p:HL and p and HF and day=Saturday and season>=2016



FADE: The Angels (102-147 -21.0% ROI)

-140<=line<=120 and p:margin<=-4 and pp:margin<=-4 and op:runs>=8 and H and SG<4 and total<11



FADE: The Pirates (425-562 -12.8% ROI, and -23.8% ROI this season)

p:margin=-8



FADE: The Phillies are 2-18 SU as a 130-plus dog after they had six or fewer hits and it is not a series opener.

team = Phillies and SG > 1 and line>=130 and p:hits <= 6 and season >= 2016



FADE: The Athletics are 0-16 RL as a favorite after a game as a home favorite in which their opponent left fewer than ten men on base.

team = Athletics and F and p:HF and po:LOB < 10 and date >= 20140808



------------

OU

OVER: Both teams off a day's rest are 61-35-4 OU +20.4% ROI this season.
(Indians/Tigers Game #1)

H and rest=1 and o:rest=1 and season=2017



OVER: The Rays are 13-2 OU as a road dog after a game as a road favorite in which they struck out at least ten times.

team = Rays and AD and p:AF and p:SO >= 10 and date >= 20131004



OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 129-90-9 OU +12.4% ROI this season.
(Mariners, Yankees, Rays, Cubs, Indians (Carrasco)

A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017



OVER: Teams on at least 3 str8 Overs (143-103-17 +10.7% ROI)
(Mariners, Royals)

date>=20170420 and p:O and p2:O and p3:O



________________

SU

White Sox
Blue Jays
Mariners
Orioles
Giants
Mets

OU

Indians/Tigers Over Game #1
Indians/Tigers Over Game #2 (Carrasco)
Rays/Orioles Over
Mariners/Angels Over
Yankees/Astros Over
Cubs/Reds Over
Twins/Royals Over Game #1
___________________________________

If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best under dog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...lb-2017-a.html

[FUqer]

I hate nights like this when there are 6 games without lines. Here is what's on my radar for tomorrow.

Indians - Game #1

Brewers - if price and action isn't bad, prolly will be

Twins - Game #1 if price and action isn't bad, prolly will be

Royals - Game #2 if price and action isn't bad

White Sox - Suspect Line?

Nationals - if action isn't bad, looks like it will be

Yankees - slight lean, but they are on my hard to trust list

Orioles - don't really like the price though

Mariners - I see value with a team playing well, depends on action

Reds - May get another win vs the struggling Cubs, Stephens doesn't look to bad, but Reds hard to trust

Athletics - I don't like Dickey in day games, but the price is a little steep.



Rays/Orioles Over - Total is too high for my liking though, it would have to come down

Cubs/Reds Over - Same as above.

Red Sox/Blue Jays Under - Total seems high for Sale vs Jays who struggle vs lefties.

Rockies/D-Backs Under - Slight lean, need to research more.

Nationals/Cardinals Under - Cardinals weak vs lefties, Wacha has been pitching decent, Cardinals stadium favors lefties.

Rangers/White Sox Over - White Sox great vs lefties, Hamels may not be right yet, Rangers bullpen is weak, but offense can hit.

Mariners/Angels Over - Model Projection Over + SDQL and Mariners are hot and I think Nolasco last start vs the Dodgers was a fluke.

Braves/Athletics Over - Model Projection Over and Dickey isn't good in Day games and Overs have been good in Oakland this season.

Giants TT Under - Getting an Under projection for the game, but don't trust Moore at all, this would be the safer play

Marlins/Brewers Under - If total is 10 or less, I will consider.

Dodgers/Padres Under - If total is 9 or less, I will consider.

[FUqer]

Tom Koehler 3-13 L16 team starts.
Zach Davies 10-3 L13 team starts.
Both trend Over

Jake Odorizzi is 1-6 his L7 team starts and has lost his last 3 team starts vs the Orioles and his last 3 in Baltimore.
Dylan Bundy has went Over in his last 4 team starts, Over 3-1 when he starts vs Rays.

Jason Hammel has lost his last 3 team starts vs the Twins.

Josh Tomlin 4-1 his last 5 team starts vs the Tigers and 3-0 in his 3 in Detroit.
Anibal Sanchez has lost his last 6 team starts vs the Indians.

Cole Hamels 3-0 vs the White Sox, though this is his 1st start on the road vs them.
White Sox 7-4 at Home vs lefties this season and the Over is 8-2-1.
The Rangers on game 9 of 10 game road trip without a day off.

Michael Wacha has gone Over 10 out of his last 11.

Jose Berrios has gone Under in every start this year. 0-2 vs Royals last year, but seems like a different pitcher.

Sam Gaviglio is 6-2 in team starts this year and the Under is 5-2-1, but he isn't quite as good as his record and ERA appear.
Ricky Nolasco pitched a shutout vs the red hot Dodgers on the road in his last starts after losing his previous 10 team starts. He just gets terrible run support for some reason.

[FUqer]

Saturday Plays 7/1

»-Mariners +110
»-Orioles -120
»-White Sox -103

»-Mariners/Angels Over 9 +116
»-Red Sox/Blue Jays Under 8.5 -110
»-Nationals/Cardinals Under 9 +102
___________________________

Still waiting on Brewers, Indians line and Braves/Athletics Over price.

[FUqer]

Rockies may be a system play and I would gladly play it, still along way to go tho. They fit the same system yesterday and I completely missed it. The system is 14-4 for +15.32 it's last 18.

[FUqer]

Saturday Plays 7/1

»-Mariners +110
»-Orioles -120
»-White Sox -103
»-Indians -106 (Tomlin/Sanchez) Game #1
»-Twins -105 (Berrios/Farrell) Game #1

»-Mariners/Angels Over 9 +116
»-Red Sox/Blue Jays Under 8.5 -110
»-Nationals/Cardinals Under 9 +102
___________________________

I added two side plays. I couldn't resist the price for Berrios and I was able to get the Indians close to the -101 I had them at yesterday.

[OlDirtyBaztid]

Saturday Plays 7/1

»-Mariners +110
»-Orioles -120
»-White Sox -103

»-Mariners/Angels Over 9 +116
»-Red Sox/Blue Jays Under 8.5 -110
»-Nationals/Cardinals Under 9 +102
___________________________

Still waiting on Brewers, Indians line and Braves/Athletics Over price.

Like the SU picks. You got any opinion on the Reds today? Looking just like yesterday. St. Louis, too, but i really don't like playing them

[FUqer]

Like the SU picks. You got any opinion on the Reds today? Looking just like yesterday. St. Louis, too, but i really don't like playing them

I haven't given them too much attention, it is a little similar. I do have the Reds 10 cents better than yesterday. Stephens numbers seems ok, both guys could be walk prone and not good getting base runners on in that stadium with that high of a total, especially with Hamilton on your team. I would prolly consider them if the early games were going well but I don't think I'll be home.

I initially liked the Nationals, but backed off it pretty hard. I had three teams on my list where I thought the books were taking sides, the Reds, Cardinals and White Sox. We seem to be on the same page at spotting them out.

[FUqer]

Saturday Results 7/1

L - »-Mariners +110
L - »-Orioles -120
L - »-White Sox -103
L - »-Indians -106 (Tomlin/Sanchez)
L - »-Twins -105 (Berrios/Farrell)

L - »-Mariners/Angels Over 9 +116
W - »-Red Sox/Blue Jays Under 8.5 -110
W - »-Nationals/Cardinals Under 9 +102
___________________________
Yesterday = 2-6 = -4.32
___________________________
Bankroll = 2074 / 3000
___________________________

7-0 to 0-5, just can't get two straight good days. Not a lot of time to analyze today.

[FUqer]

SDQL 7/2

ALL = Yesterday 6-7 (Total 389-325)
SU = Yesterday 2-4 (Total 202-160)
OU = Yesterday 4-3 (Total 187-165)
---------------------------------

SU


PLAY: The Padres (989-595 +11.6% ROI)

H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)



FADE: The Padres (425-563 -12.9% ROI)

p:margin=-8



PLAY: The Nationals are 13-0 SU since May 4, 2016 as a road favorite after they scored more runs off the bullpen than they did off the starter last game.

team=Nationals and AF and po:BPRA > po:SRA and date>=20160504



PLAY: The Nationals are 32-4 SU since May 7th, 2014 as a favorite in the last game of a series when they came back from a deficit to win in their starters last start.

team = Nationals and F and s:W and so:BL > 0 and LGS and date >= 20140507



PLAY: The Mets are 20-3 SU as a favorite in the last game of a series after a one-run win.

team = Mets and F and p:margin = 1 and LGS and date >= 20110901



FADE: The Phillies are 3-26 SU since Sep 11, 2016 on the road after their opponent scored first last game.

team=Phillies and A and po:SF>0 and date>=20160911



PLAY: The Brewers are 12-0 RL as a dog after a game as a home favorite in which they struck out at least ten times.

team = Brewers and D and p:HF and p:SO >= 10 and date >= 20140428



PLAY: The Rays are 16-0 RL in the last game of a series when their line is within 20 cents of pick-em off a win as a dog in which they never trailed.

team = Rays and SG = SGS and -120 <= line <= 120 and p and po:BL = 0 and p:W and date >= 20110428



PLAY: The Rays are 18-0 RL in the last game of a series on the road when their line is within 20 cents of pick-em off a game as a dog in which they had multiple multiple-run innings.

team = Rays and SG = SGS and A and -120 <= line <= 120 and p and p:MRI >= 2 and date >= 20070827



------------

OU


UNDER: The Red Sox are 0-21 OU in the last game of a road series after a win in which their opponent left more than 16 men on base.

team = Red Sox and A and po:LOB>16 and p:W and LGS and date >= 20110717



UNDER: The Angels are 0-16 OU as a home dog after a game in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base.

team = Angels and HD and p:TLOB < 5 and date >= 20140622



UNDER: The Cardinals are 0-12-1 OU since Apr 07, 2008 as a dog after a game as a home favorite in which they scored 3 runs or less and won.

team = Cardinals and D and p:HF and p:HW and p:runs <= 3 and date >= 20080407



OVER: The Rays are 11-0 OU in the last game of a road series as a favorite off a win as a dog in which they never trailed.

team = Rays and SG = SGS and AF and p and po:BL = 0 and p:W and date >= 20110626



OVER: The Rangers are 14-1 OU in the last game of a series on the road after they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent.

team = Rangers and LGS and A and po:TLOB < p:TLOB and date >= 20160505



OVER: The White Sox are 14-1 OU as a favorite off a game as a dog in which they held a multiple-run lead and it is not a series opener.

team = White Sox and SG > 1 and F and p and p:BL > 1 and date >= 20150718



OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 131-93-9 OU +11.6% ROI this season.
(Mariners, Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, Marlins, Indians)

A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017



OVER: Teams on at least 3 str8 Overs (145-104-17 +10.9% ROI)
(Twins, Royals)

date>=20170420 and p:O and p2:O and p3:O



________________

SU

Nationals
Mets

OU

Nationals/Cardinals Under
Rays/Orioles Over
Rangers/White Sox Over
Yankees/Astros Over
Marlins/Brewers Over
Indians/Tigers Over
Twins/Royals Over
___________________________________

If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best under dog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...lb-2017-a.html

[FUqer]

Sunday Plays 7/2

»-Cubs -1 -112
»-Royals -1 +101

»-Red Sox/Blue Jays Under 8.5 +105
»-Phillies/Mets Under 9.5 -108
»-Cubs/Reds Over 9.5 -108
»-Indians/Tigers Over 9.5 -113
»-Yankees/Astros Over 8.5 -108
»-Twins/Royals Over 10 -113
»-Nationals/Cardinals Over 7.5 +107
___________________________

[FUqer]

Sunday Plays 7/2

»-Cubs -1 -112
»-Royals -1 +101

»-Red Sox/Blue Jays Under 8.5 +105
»-Phillies/Mets Under 9.5 -108
»-Cubs/Reds Over 9.5 -108
»-Indians/Tigers Over 9.5 -113
»-Yankees/Astros Over 8.5 -108
»-Marlins/Brewers Under 10 +105
»-Twins/Royals Over 10 -113
»-Nationals/Cardinals Over 7.5 +107
___________________________

Missed one, in a rush this morning.

[FUqer]

I kinda like the Phillies today too but I'm about to be out for the day. They may also fall into a system play, I'm going check a little before they start and may play it from my phone if they do.

[OlDirtyBaztid]

like kc and am watching the toronto line. like your unders, too

[FUqer]

like kc and am watching the toronto line. like your unders, too

yea model actually had Boston -143 today but line was too suspect for me to play them.

Phillies/Mets total stood out to me, can't believe it opened so low. I'm going against my model's biggest differential margin in that one.


Marlins and Mariners lines seemed a little off to me but I can sort of understand them based on certain metrics. Indians line starting to look suspect.

[OlDirtyBaztid]

yea model actually had Boston -143 today but line was too suspect for me to play them.

Phillies/Mets total stood out to me, can't believe it opened so low. I'm going against my model's biggest differential margin in that one.


Marlins and Mariners lines seemed a little off to me but I can sort of understand them based on certain metrics. Indians line starting to look suspect.

i thought the same about indians. i have no say on miami. lol. i can NEVER get them right

[FUqer]

i thought the same about indians. i have no say on miami. lol. i can NEVER get them right

With these later lines moves, sometimes I can't tell it it's sharps sniffing them out or the bookies doubling down on their confidence trying to lure more bettors.

I see the Royals are dropping but they shouldn't of been that high anyway, sometimes makes me think the books just open it high to scare more people off then try to balance it out a little later. I don't really bet on perceived value, doesn't really work for me, but I use it to help tell if the books are taking a side or not.

[OlDirtyBaztid]

With these later lines moves, sometimes I can't tell it it's sharps sniffing them out or the bookies doubling down on their confidence trying to lure more bettors.

I see the Royals are dropping but they shouldn't of been that high anyway, sometimes makes me think the books just open it high to scare more people off then try to balance it out a little later. I don't really bet on perceived value, doesn't really work for me, but I use it to help tell if the books are taking a side or not.

i noticed the same thing yesterday with the reds and the giants. big drops, then came to even out before the game started. i may stay away from the jays. i like kc, watching philly, giants, and indians. might put a little something on the sox. i'll be up at comiskey in a few hours. i'll never call it guaranteed or whatever. lol

[FUqer]

Added

»-Blue Jays -115
________________________

too hard to ignore

[FUqer]

i noticed the same thing yesterday with the reds and the giants. big drops, then came to even out before the game started. i may stay away from the jays. i like kc, watching philly, giants, and indians. might put a little something on the sox. i'll be up at comiskey in a few hours. i'll never call it guaranteed or whatever. lol

Do they usually win when you go to the game? It's like that for me with the Steelers. The last two I went to, Ben threw for 5 td's both times and he's from my hometown too. It doesn't work for me in baseball, I go to Reds, Indians, Tigers and Pirates games with mixed results.

[OlDirtyBaztid]

Do they usually win when you go to the game? It's like that for me with the Steelers. The last two I went to, Ben threw for 5 td's both times and he's from my hometown too. It doesn't work for me in baseball, I go to Reds, Indians, Tigers and Pirates games with mixed results.

No. They usually get the living shit kicked out of them. Lol. Badly

[FUqer]

Sunday Results 7/2

W - »-Cubs -1 -112
W - »-Royals -1 +101
L - »-Blue Jays -115

W - »-Phillies/Mets Under 9.5 -108
W - »-Indians/Tigers Over 9.5 -113
W - »-Yankees/Astros Over 8.5 -108
W - »-Nationals/Cardinals Over 7.5 +107
L - »-Red Sox/Blue Jays Under 8.5 +105
L - »-Cubs/Reds Over 9.5 -108
L - »-Twins/Royals Over 10 -113
L - »-Marlins/Brewers Under 10 +105
___________________________
Yesterday = 6-5 = +0.72
___________________________
Bankroll = 2110 / 3000
___________________________

A winning day but my final decision making still needs a lot of work, I've had a pretty good week, finished 2nd in the weekly contest, but so many plays I liked but didn't play won. Last night I should of been smarter on the Royals over, one lefty in that ballpark is enough to consider the Under, but there was two lefties starting and on Sunday to boot. The Brewers should of been an Over play based on the suspect line like the Mets total was, I knew Guerra metrics are bad for some reason I liked him and Koehler is and Over machine. And the Blue Jays last minute add was pretty bad and it was highly suspect but everyone noticed and was on them, that should of been a sign to pass, especially when I mentioned I was close to playing Boston overnight. I still like the direction I been going and hopefully I can get some more things figured out and win consistently.

[FUqer]

Phillies line is suspect, they shouldn't be favored, books liking them. If that line holds up throughout the day they be a possibility, I don't want another Blue Jays situation where it's too obvious, books may be wising up and setting some decoys, especially the really noticeable ones.

Mets seem to hit Strasburg pretty good and they might have the SNB hangover, plus Matz is one of my favorite youngsters.

I'm kinda liking the Reds and Castillo the most as far as sides go.

Slight leans on Blue Jays, Rangers, Angels and I need to look up the Brewers pitcher cuz I thought Espino was starting and the Brewers vs lefties always worth a look, especially Miley. Overall, I'm not really feeling sides too much as of yet. I kinda feel the books are leaning towards the Blue Jays and Rangers, but nothing like the Phillies.

As far as totals I have one that I am almost ready to play, Mets/Nats Over, and two others on my radar the Over in the White Sox game and the Under in the Blue Jays game.

I kinda feel the books are leaning towards the Over in the Rangers game and the Under in the Athletics and Mariners games.

[FUqer]

SDQL 7/3

ALL = Yesterday 5-4 (Total 394-329)
SU = Yesterday 1-1 (Total 203-161)
OU = Yesterday 4-3 (Total 191-168)
---------------------------------

SU

PLAY: The Phillies and Twins (990-595 +11.7% ROI)

H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)



FADE: The Phillies are 3-26 SU since May 02, 2016 off a game as a dog in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits.

team = Phillies and p and po:hits <= 6 and date >= 20160502



PLAY: The Red Sox (536-377 +9.7% ROI, but 0-9 it's last 9 so beware)

(p:margin = Maximum(margin@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200) and (p:BL = Maximum(BL@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200)



FADE: The Red Sox are 2-24 SU after a road win in which they had 12+ hits after an away game in the first game of a series, as long as they are not a favorite of more than 120.

team = Red Sox and line>=-120 and 12 <= p:hits and p:AW and SG = 1 and season >= 2007



PLAY: The Nationals are 18-1 SU since Sep 06, 2015 as a favorite vs a lefty off a game as a favorite and after facing three straight righties.

team=Nationals and F and p:F and o:STL and po:STR and ppo:STR and pppo:STR and date>=20150906



PLAY: The Yankees are 12-1 SU since Sep 24, 2015 as a home favorite off a game as a dog in which they had more strikeouts than hits.

team=Yankees and HF and p and p:SO > p:hits and date>=20150924



------------

OU

OVER: Teams on the Road are 18-1 OU after scoring 15 or more runs their previous game since 04/22/16.
(Red Sox)

p:runs>=15 and A and date>=20160422



OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 135-95-9 OU +11.9% ROI this season.
(Pirates, Reds, Angels, Blue Jays)A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017



OVER: Teams on at least 3 str8 Overs (145-106-17 +10.0% ROI)
(White Sox, Rangers, Yankees)

date>=20170420 and p:O and p2:O and p3:O



________________

SU

Twins
Nationals
Yankees

OU

Red Sox/Rangers Over
Pirates/Phillies Over
Reds/Rockies Over
Angels/Twins Over
Blue Jays/Yankees Over
White Sox/Athletics Over
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If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best under dog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...lb-2017-a.html

[FUqer]

Monday Plays 7/3

»-Mets/Nationals Over 8.5 -105
»-Red Sox/Rangers Over 11 -103
___________________________

Still interested in the Reds and maybe the Mariners and team total Overs for Brewers and Reds.

[FUqer]

Big game for the Mets who trail Nats by 9.5 games, they can either be back in it or down double digit games and I'm sure the Nats are just as aware. Last time they met in Washington, the Nats won 23-5 but did lose the series. I like the Mets chances a lot better the next two games, but I think the Nats are too good vs lefties. The Nats TT over may be a good play, but I played the game total cuz it's a system play for me and I'm trying to not get too logical with those, especially when it a contrarian play IMO, logic and contrarian doesn't mix to well, just got to trust the angle.

[FUqer]

Monday Plays 7/3

»-Reds +158

»-Mets/Nationals Over 8.5 -105
»-Red Sox/Rangers Over 11 -103
___________________________

Added the Reds, Hoffman has been roughed up at Home all season and I kinda like Castillo, even considered the -2 for +293.

[FUqer]

Monday Plays 7/3

»-Reds +158
»-Mariners -1 +111

»-Mets/Nationals Over 8.5 -105
»-Red Sox/Rangers Over 11 -103
___________________________

Added the Mariners.

[FUqer]

Monday Results 7/3

L - »-Reds +158
L - »-Mariners -1 +111

L - »-Mets/Nationals Over 8.5 -105
W - »-Red Sox/Rangers Over 11 -103
___________________________
Yesterday = 1-3 = -2.05
___________________________
Bankroll = 2008 / 3000
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