I'm not someone who won't fade his model though, I have a system built around it that includes some fading. It is lacking in some areas but I don't want to make any changes right now because it would screw everything else up and right now I'm getting to know its strengths and weakness pretty good.
-
Comment -
That's interesting to know, I've been wanting to track some more parameters based on things like that, I track some things like Top 3 / Bottom 5 / Bull Pen / Predicted to win / Value / and the basic Home/Away/Favorite/Dog.
For sides, I always set them up in order based on pitching advantage according to my ratings and win %, value, bullpen, offense season, offense past 7 days/ motivation, sdql, other and at the end I come up with a rating between 0-10 and I keep track of those. Pretty much 5 and above isn't profitable and 4 and below, excluding 3 for some reason is highly profitable, it has about a 7/1 favorite to dog ratio though, so some for me are unplayable.Comment -
Tuesday Plays 6/27
»-Braves -102
»-Rangers/Indians Under 10 +102
»-Cardinals/D-Backs Over 9 +105
»-Phillies/Mariners Over 8.5 -103
»-Rays/Pirates Over 9.5 +108
»-Royals/Tigers Over 9 -103
»-Braves/Padres Over 8 -108
»-Rockies/Giants Over 9 +116
_______________________________
Top two total plays are system plays and the remaining 5 are model plays based on Over projections which is good enough for me at 60-29 and a unusual amount of projected Overs will put it to the test today.
The D-Backs, Athletics (slim), Rockies and Yankees are all on my radar but something needs to change as far as line or public backing. The Rockies and Yankees have 4 star ratings which are hitting at a 69% rate so far since I incorporated the system. The Brewers and Marlins are also rated in a spot winning at a 64% clip so far.
Braves won last 8 vs Padres but are 1-12 L13 in San Diego.
Athletics are 1-15 L16 vs the Astros.Comment -
SDQL 6/27
ALL = Yesterday 5-2 (Total 358-292)
SU = Yesterday 2-1 (Total 187-148)
OU = Yesterday 3-1 (Total 171-144)
---------------------------------
SU
PLAY: The Marlins (986-594 +11.5% ROI)
H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)
PLAY: The Dodgers are 38-5 SU as a 135+ favorite when seeking immediate revenge for a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits.
team = Dodgers and line<=-135 and p:hits <= 6 and p:L and SG > 1 and date >= 20140720
PLAY: The Dodgers are 23-5 SU at home after a loss in which they did not score after the third inning.
team = Dodgers and H and p:S3 = p:runs and p:L and date>=20140613
PLAY: The Angels (68-61 SU +21.4% ROI 70-28 RL +14.1% ROI)
o:conference = NL and conference = AL and AD and month < 8 and 9.5 >= total >= 7 and p:W and series game=2
FADE: The Cubs are 0-16 SU as a 140-plus dog when opponents starter has a strike-per-ball ratio greater than 1.925 on the season.
team = Cubs and A and line >= 140 and o:STDSSPB > 1.925 and date >= 20130928
FADE: The Phillies are 1-24 SU since Sep 11, 2016 on the road after their opponent scored first last game.
team=Phillies and A and po:SF>0 and date>=20160911
------------
OU
UNDER: Rays/Pirates (162-81-7 +26.5% ROI)
STR and o:STR and s:margin = -1 and s:streak = 2 and s:biggest lead < 3 and s:errors < 2 and -9 < p:M8 < 3 and p:M8 != -2 and -4 < p:M1 < 3
OVER: Teams both coming off rest (60-31-3 +25.0% ROI)
(Astros/Athletics, Blue Jays/Orioles, Marlins/Mets, Padres/Braves, Pirates/Rays, Tigers/Royals)
H and rest=1 and o:rest=1 and season=2017
OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 125-81-8 OU +15.6% ROI this season.
(Brewers, Yankees)
A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017
OVER: Teams on at least 3 str8 Overs (142-100-17 +11.6% ROI)
(Orioles, Cardinals, Rays)
date>=20170420 and p:O and p2:O and p3:O
________________
SU
Marlins
Dodgers
Nationals
Mariners
OU
Astros/Athletics Over
Blue Jays/Orioles Over
Marlins/Mets Over
Padres/Braves Over
Pirates/Rays Over
Tigers/Royals Over
Brewers/Reds Over
Yankees/White Sox Over
Cardinals/D-Backs Over
___________________________________
If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best under dog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...lb-2017-a.htmlComment -
Originally Posted by FUqer
Tuesday Plays 6/27
»-Braves -102
»-Rangers/Indians Under 10 +102
»-Cardinals/D-Backs Over 9 +105
»-Phillies/Mariners Over 8.5 -103
»-Rays/Pirates Over 9.5 +108
»-Royals/Tigers Over 9 -103
»-Braves/Padres Over 8 -108
»-Rockies/Giants Over 9 +116
»-Brewers/Reds Over 10 +101
»-Angels/Dodgers Over 8.5 -108
»-Yankees/White Sox Over 8 -104
____________________________________
Added another Over, the line and price dropped to make it playable. Over in the Salami seems like a good idea and the Athletics looks like it will end up as a system play.Comment -
Originally Posted by FUqer
Tuesday Plays 6/27
»-Braves -102
»-Reds -1 +106
»-Cardinals -1 +101
»-Yankees -1 -113
»-Athletics +138
»-Rangers/Indians Under 10 +102
»-Cardinals/D-Backs Over 9 +105
»-Phillies/Mariners Over 8.5 -103
»-Rays/Pirates Over 9.5 +108
»-Royals/Tigers Over 9 -103
»-Braves/Padres Over 8 -108
»-Rockies/Giants Over 9 +116
»-Brewers/Reds Over 10 +101
»-Angels/Dodgers Over 8.5 -108
»-Yankees/White Sox Over 8 -104
______________________________
Added side plays for the day. Athletics are a system play, the Reds and Cards are plays due to suspect lines, and the Yankees price fell to playable. Big card today, let's see how it goes.Comment -
7-7 waiting on this Giants game to end, hoping they somehow get some more runs on the board. These two have to play a day game tomorrow and I'm already like the Under and maybe the Rockies if their not to public.Comment -
Tuesday Results 6/27
W - »-Reds -1 +106
W - »-Athletics +138
W - »-Braves -102
L - »-Yankees -1 -113
L - »-Cardinals -1 +101
W - »-Rangers/Indians Under 10 +102
W - »-Brewers/Reds Over 10 +101
W - »-Cardinals/D-Backs Over 9 +105
W - »-Phillies/Mariners Over 8.5 -103
L - »-Rays/Pirates Over 9.5 +108
L - »-Royals/Tigers Over 9 -103
L - »-Yankees/White Sox Over 8 -104
L - »-Angels/Dodgers Over 8.5 -108
L - »-Braves/Padres Over 8 -108
L - »-Rockies/Giants Over 9 +116
___________________________
Yesterday = 7-8 = -0.84
___________________________
Bankroll = 924 / 2000
___________________________
Sides went well but the could of been 5-0 if the Yankees and Cardinals didn't blow multi run leads late. The Athletics was a contrarian system play that always does well long term. The Reds and Cards were plays based on suspect lines. The Braves was a model/personal play as I really like Newcomb. I don't really have any regrets as far as sides go and that's all I care about.
My system plays for totals went 3-0 but my plays based on my model's Over projections failed pretty hard and I should have known with it being so unusual for it to predict so many, it's best when there is only a couple. I got over trusting with it's success with Overs and played them pretty much blindly and before I even did my SDQL research. Had I saw the SDQL trend for the Under in the Rays game, that would have been a no go. The Braves/Padres Over was a mistake also, should of known better there. Yankees/White Sox and Royals/Tigers should of went Over but that was balanced by getting lucky on hitting some Overs late in the game in the Phillies/Mariners and Cardinals/D-Backs that should of went under. Coulda , shoulda, woulda, doesn't matter though, only the results. All in all, at least I didn't get creamed playing so many damn games.Comment -
Looking at Mets, Brewers, Indians, Royals for tomorrow and Brewers/Reds Over and Braves/Padres Under as possible system plays, along with 3 model Over projection in the Pirates, Mariners and Tigers games, a few Unders in the Indians, Dodgers and Rockies games.Comment -
SDQL 6/28
ALL = Yesterday 6-6-1 (Total 364-298)
SU = Yesterday 3-1 (Total 190-149)
OU = Yesterday 3-5-1 (Total 174-149)
---------------------------------
SU
FADE: The Nationals (120-229 -29.7% ROI)
(so:R1 = 3 or so:R1 = 4) and SG != 2 and 5 > SGS > 1 and s:SRA < 10 and 3 < s:SHA < 10 and s:SWA < 5 and 6 > s:SSO > 1 and starter rest < 17 and s:SPT > 56 and os:SRA < 8 and s:SHRA < 4 and os:SHRA < 2 and os:SPT > 69 and o:starter rest < 18 and p:hits < 12 and 0 < ss:SSO < 12 and ss:SPT > 66 and -8 < os:margin < 6 and tA(hits,N=10) > 6.8 and oA(LOB, N=10) < 18.5 and 1.4 < oA(walks, N=10) < 4.8 and tA(walks, N=10) > 1.7
FADE: The Cubs are 0-17 SU as a 140-plus dog when opponents starter has a strike-per-ball ratio greater than 1.925 on the season.
team = Cubs and A and line >= 140 and o:STDSSPB > 1.925 and date >= 20130928
PLAY: The Cardinals and Cubs (270-250 +20.0% ROI)
AD and season > 2010 and month != 7 and p:hits < 8 and pp:hits > 6 and 18 > ppp:hits > 2 and pppp:hits > 5 and 17 > ppppp:hits > 4 and 16 > op:hits > 6 and s:SRA < 6 and streak > -5 and SG < 4 and line < 190 and total < 10.01 and 1.9 > STDSWHIP > 1.2
PLAY: The Rays (68-62 +20.5% ROI)
o:conference = NL and conference = AL and AD and month < 8 and 9.5 >= total >= 7 and p:W and series game=2
PLAY: The Orioles (93-94 +15.3% ROI)
AD and p:AW and SG=2 and division=o:division and day!=Saturday and day!=Sunday and p:runs<5 and op:runs<3 and NGT
PLAY: The Red Sox (536-375 +9.9% ROI)
(p:margin = Maximum(margin@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200) and (p:BL = Maximum(BL@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200)
PLAY: The Astros (987-594 +11.6% ROI)
H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)
------------
OU
UNDER: Rays/Pirates (459-230-36 +25.5% ROI)
season > 2008 and H and 10 > month > 5 and SG < 4 and 5 > streak > -5 and 1 > tA(HR) > .7 and s:SRA < 6 and p:hits < 11 and 16 > op:hits > 4 and sss:SRA < 4 and rest = 0 and p:home runs < 2 and os:SSO < 11 and oss:SSO < 10 and os:SHA < 11 and 2 < oss:SHA < 11 and p:IT < 6 and p:LOB < 21 and s:SPT < 122 and ss:SPT < 119 and team != Rockies and team != Athletics and o:team != Blue Jays and (p:errors + pp:errors + ppp:errors + pppp:errors + ppppp:errors + pppppp:errors) < 10 and (op:errors + opp:errors + oppp:errors + opppp:errors + oppppp:errors + opppppp:errors) < 8 and (p:temperature < 91 or p:temperature = Indoors)
UNDER: The Angels are 0-15 OU as a home dog after a game in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base.
team = Angels and HD and p:TLOB < 5 and date >= 20140622
OVER: The Rockies are 12-0 OU on the road after playing as a road favorite when their opponents starting pitcher has same-season-revenge and it is not a series opener.
team = Rockies and SG > 1 and A and p:AF and oS:L and oS:season = season and date >= 20100720
OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 126-82-8 OU +15.4% ROI this season.
(Rockies, Rangers, Mets, Phillies)
A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017
OVER: Teams on at least 3 str8 Overs (143-102-17 +11.1% ROI)
(Cardinals)
date>=20170420 and p:O and p2:O and p3:O
________________
SU
Cubs
Cardinals
Rays
Orioles
Red Sox
Astros
OU
Rays/Pirates Under
Angels/Dodgers Under
Rockies/Giants Over
Rangers/Indians Over
Mets/Marlins Over
Phillies/Mariners Over
Cardinals/D-Backs Over
___________________________________
If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best under dog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...lb-2017-a.htmlComment -
Wednesday Plays 6/28
»-Indians -110
»-Phillies/Mariners Over 9 -103
»-Royals/Tigers Over 9.5 -113
»-Yankees/White Sox Over 9 -103
»-Dodgers/Angels Under 8.5 -103
___________________________
Too many people on the Over in the Reds game for it to be a proper contrarian system play and Anderson has been stingy this season and Castillo is a promising newcomer, I think I like the Under more now but will most likely pass.
Backed way off the Over in the Rays game, I'm not making the same mistake as yesterday when they have another great SDQL Under trend for their game.
I like the Mets and Brewers but they are more personal opinions than anything else and the public seems to like them also. I've been doing better at missing the weird BS late in games by avoiding big public plays.
I have the Royals on my list, but it must not be too good because I can't remember exactly why right now.
I'm still waiting on the Braves/Padres total to be released, people should be on the Over, if so I will be on the Under in that one as a system play and the only other play I'm real serious about making at this point.
Tanaka hasn't been very good but seems to own the White Sox, both those teams have been bad beat after bad beat for me, and deserve to go on my avoid list indefinitely.Comment -
my list of suspect lines from early this morning, just got home and haven't rechecked them.
col
mia
cin
min
cle
chw
tb
laaComment -
Wednesday Results 6/28
W - »-Indians -110
P - »-Phillies/Mariners Over 9-103
W - »-Royals/Tigers Over 9.5 -113
W - »-Yankees/White Sox Over 9 -103
W - »-Dodgers/Angels Under 8.5 -103
L - »-Braves/Padres Under 8.5 -108
___________________________
Yesterday = 4-1-1 = +2.92
___________________________
Bankroll = 1070 / 2000
___________________________
The only thing I can really nitpick about tonight is that I left a lot of winning plays I talked about on the table. One day I play too many and the next too few. 3 sides and 5 totals on my radar for tomorrow.Comment -
SDQL 6/29
ALL = Yesterday 4-8-1 (Total 368-306)
SU = Yesterday 2-4 (Total 192-153)
OU = Yesterday 2-4-1 (Total 176-153)
---------------------------------
SU
PLAY: The Red Sox (988-594 +11.6% ROI)
H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)
PLAY: The Blue Jays (169-110 +10.3% ROI)
H and p:margin >= 3 and op:runs = 0 and WP < 60 and o:WP > 38.5 and line > -230 and conference = o:conference and (month != 7 and month != 8) and 2008 <= season and SG > 1 and total > 6.5
FADE: The Marlins (424-561 -12.8% ROI)
p:margin=-8
PLAY: The Brewers are 18-2 SU since May 15, 2014 in the last game of a series off a game as a favorite in which their bullpen allowed multiple runs.
team = Brewers and p:F and LGS and p:BPRA > 1 and date >= 20140515
PLAY: The Dodgers are 39-5 SU as a 135+ favorite when seeking immediate revenge for a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits.
team = Dodgers and line<=-135 and p:hits <= 6 and p:L and SG > 1 and date >= 20140720
------------
OU
UNDER: Rays/Pirates (460-230 +25.6% ROI)s
eason > 2008 and H and 10 > month > 5 and SG < 4 and 5 > streak > -5 and 1 > tA(HR) > .7 and s:SRA < 6 and p:hits < 11 and 16 > op:hits > 4 and sss:SRA < 4 and rest = 0 and p:home runs < 2 and os:SSO < 11 and oss:SSO < 10 and os:SHA < 11 and 2 < oss:SHA < 11 and p:IT < 6 and p:LOB < 21 and s:SPT < 122 and ss:SPT < 119 and team != Rockies and team != Athletics and o:team != Blue Jays and (p:errors + pp:errors + ppp:errors + pppp:errors + ppppp:errors + pppppp:errors) < 10 and (op:errors + opp:errors + oppp:errors + opppp:errors + oppppp:errors + opppppp:errors) < 8 and (p:temperature < 91 or p:temperature = Indoors)
OVER: The White Sox are 19-4 OU since Sep 14, 2013 as a dog off a home game in which they left 18+ men on base.
team = White Sox and D and p:H and 18 <= p:LOB and date >= 20130924
UNDER: The Blue Jays are 4-20 OU at home off a game as a favorite in which they held a multiple-run lead since Sep 12, 2016
team=Blue Jays and H and p:F and p:BL > 1 and date>=20160912
UNDER: The Blue Jays are 2-15-1 OU in not the first game of a series off a game as a favorite in which they hit multiple home runs since Aug 30, 2016.
team=Blue Jays and SG > 1 and p:F and p:HR>1 and date>=20160830
OVER: The Cardinals are 16-3 OU as a dog off a game as a dog in which they scored in fewer innings than their opponent.
team = Cardinals and D and p
and p:SII < po:SII and date >= 20150711
OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 126-85-8 OU +13.9% ROI this season.
(Cardinals, Rangers, Mets, Cubs, Rays, Brewers)
A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017
OVER: Teams on at least 3 str8 Overs (143-103-17 +10.7% ROI)
(None Today)
date>=20170420 and p:O and p2:O and p3:O
________________
SU
Red Sox
Blue Jays
Mets
Brewers
Dodgers
OU
Orioles/Blue Jays Under
Yankees/White Sox Over
Cardinals/D-Backs Over
Rangers/Indians Over
Mets/Marlins Over
Cubs/Nationals Over
Brewers/Reds Over
___________________________________
If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best under dog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...lb-2017-a.htmlComment -
Having a hard time with tonight's card, I think I'm going to have to wait and see how some things unfold with the line movement and see if I can pick up on anything.
The Braves are closest to being a play right now, the Padres aren't very good vs lefties this year and I have them as small favorites over Lamet. The Under is also being heavily considered as one of my top total leans.
I like the D-Backs vs Lynn, with the Cardinals pretty weak vs lefties, I just want to see what the public and line does.
I somewhat like the Rays but not sure if I'm going to play it, depends on line movement and public action.
I would consider the White Sox, but they been killing me this year. Shields, kinda like Tanaka yesterday is struggling but has had success vs his opponent in the past. Just an outside chance at a play. I like the Over a little more, but I can see the public starting to jump on it, so I will see how it plays out.
I don't think I'll have the guts to take the Angels vs Kershaw today, he does pretty good against them and just about every else.
Considering the Over in the Rangers/Indians game or Indians TT Over, and the Over in the Athletics/Astros game or Astros TT Over. I would rather play the team totals in both of those if the price isn't too bad.
And two other total plays that are at the bottom of my list are the Cubs/Nationals Under and Brewers TT Over.
I kinda think the Marlins and the Reds lines are off a little and makes me want to play them, gonna keep an eye on the movement in those.
Overall, either this card sucks or I did too much research tonight and got scared off some of my leans that I thought would for sure be plays. The Braves are really the only thing I'm wanting to play and might not even do that. If that happens, I'll just play some low risk/high reward parlays for some action and move on to tomorrow's card. I need to get ahead of schedule for the holiday week coming up even though it's supposed to rain every damn day.Comment -
Update on the games I was interested in.
Backed off the Braves a little with the Public getting behind them and considering they have been horrendous in San Diego the Last 14 games are so. I wished I would of played the Under at 8.5, still considering it at 8, haven't checked the current price on it yet.
Passed on the D-Backs with the public behind them.
Passing on the Rays most likely due to public and line reaction from it.
I'm still slightly considering the White Sox, but as I said they always kill me in weird ways. I still like the Over but not sure enough to play it.
The Angels are getting less than 20% of the public backing but the line went further away from them, pass on them for sure.
Should of taken the TT for the Astros and Indians, but not that disappointed. I would rather of not played and win, than play something I'm not so sure about and lose.
Cubs/Nationals Under I liked but missed playing and not sure I would of anyway.
The Marlins and Reds line got even more suspect.
The Marlins' best hitter is out of the lineup and the price didn't really budge. The only thing here is that they are backed by the public.
The Reds line I find real interesting. I thought it was already suspect with the Brewers as small favs, and now the Reds are -113 favs with less than 30% of the backing. I just find it hard to trust Homer Bailey after coming off the DL and sucking his last first start back. If the books are thinking the Reds are going to win, then it makes me think that the Over is a play. I'm getting pretty good at sniffing out these suspect lines and movement, this one will take some balls to play though.Comment -
Severe storms prolly heading to Cincy, hitting me hard right now. Possible delay may make the Over more enticing.
I'm glad I got some kayaking in yesterday cuz river is gonna be flooded for the next week with all this rain coming over the next few days. I don't mind the extra adventure, but my wife won't go with me, haha.Comment -
Thursday Plays 6/29
»-Marlins RL +147
»-Reds -1 +130
___________________________
I'm going to give those suspect line plays a chance RL. Mr. Lock is on the Marlins RL and that put me over the top. I don't post tail plays, but I already had my eye on these since last night and played them earlier in the weekly contest as my only plays. I'm still hoping the price on the Under 8 drops in the Padres game. It was supposed to be a contrarian system play and I didn't expect it to drop from 8.5 to 8, so that might mean it's not so contrarian after all. Not sure why there was a big line move in the Braves game, but that will most likely ensure a pass for me.
It was kind of nice not playing overnight and letting some of the lines and scenarios play out, I just need to grab the right ones early and wait to see how the rest play out.Comment -
I was on Mets earlier today and then once I saw Lock and you on MIA I bought out and added to MIA ML and -1.5. Woe is me.Comment -
still early, these type of plays seems to have a habit of coming thru in the end when they don't start so good, hopefully things turn around.
I been on the other side of these picks most the season, snatching up the perceived value and then left in amazement after they blow leads late in the some of the worst beats possible. This last week, especially with totals, I've learned to spot them out and play the other side and been on the other side of those late game bad beats. May or may not happen tonight though, who knows.Comment -
I should of listened to my gut more on the Reds play in determining contrarian from stupid, that one was stupid. Not giving up on the Marlins yet, anything can happen with the Met bullpen.Comment -
Thursday Results 6/29
L - »-Marlins RL +147
L - »-Reds -1 +130
___________________________
Yesterday = 0-2 = -2.00
___________________________
Bankroll = 970 / 2000
___________________________
Should of just passed the card, especially on the Reds.Comment -
SDQL 6/30
ALL = Yesterday 7-5 (Total 375-311)
SU = Yesterday 4-1 (Total 196-154)
OU = Yesterday 3-4 (Total 179-157)
---------------------------------
SU
FADE: The Yankees (121-229 -29.3% ROI)
(so:R1 = 3 or so:R1 = 4) and SG != 2 and 5 > SGS > 1 and s:SRA < 10 and 3 < s:SHA < 10 and s:SWA < 5 and 6 > s:SSO > 1 and starter rest < 17 and s:SPT > 56 and os:SRA < 8 and s:SHRA < 4 and os:SHRA < 2 and os:SPT > 69 and o:starter rest < 18 and p:hits < 12 and 0 < ss:SSO < 12 and ss:SPT > 66 and -8 < os:margin < 6 and tA(hits,N=10) > 6.8 and oA(LOB, N=10) < 18.5 and 1.4 < oA(walks, N=10) < 4.8 and tA(walks, N=10) > 1.7
FADE: The Orioles (19-46 -39.8% ROI)
H and STDSERA >= 6.7 and conference = AL and A(o:SSO@o:starter and o:season) >= 5 and conference = o:conference and rest = 0 and SG = 1
FADE: The Rangers (61-97 -31.3% ROI)
s:SO > 9 and s:W and A and season > 2005 and -185 <= line <= -110 and conference = o:conference and starter rest < 10 and rest = 0 and SG<3 and month<9 and 10>=total>=7.5
FADE: The Reds (424-562 -12.9% ROI)
p:margin=-8
PLAY: The Brewers (50-32 +15.3% ROI)
HF and line<-105 and line>-120 and p:margin>7 and p:margin<10
PLAY: The Mariners and Dodgers (239-145 SU +9.1% ROI & 163-133 RL +23.5% ROI)
AF and pp:LOB=14 and 7<p:LOB<18 and -3<p:margin
FADE: The Dodgers are 0-13 SU since Jun 29, 2015 in the first game of a series with no rest on the road when playing a divisional opponent with fewer wins.
team=Dodgers and FGS and DIV and A and rest=0 and WP > o:WP and date>=20150629
PLAY: The Giants (271-251 +19.9% ROI)
AD and season > 2010 and month != 7 and p:hits < 8 and pp:hits > 6 and 18 > ppp:hits > 2 and pppp:hits > 5 and 17 > ppppp:hits > 4 and 16 > op:hits > 6 and s:SRA < 6 and streak > -5 and SG < 4 and line < 190 and total < 10.01 and 1.9 > STDSWHIP > 1.2
PLAY: The Pirates are 15-1 SU as a favorite off a home shutout win.
team = Pirates and F and p:H and po:runs = 0 and date >= 20130521
------------
OU
UNDER: The Cardinals are 0-11 O/U since Aug 05, 2013 as a favorite after a game as a road dog in which they won by 5+ runs.
team=Cardinals and F and p:AD and p:margin>=5 and date>=20130805
UNDER: The Marlins are 0-12 OU in the first game of a series when their line is within 20 cents of pick-em when they are off two losses in which they never led.
team = Marlins and FGS and -120 <= line <= 120 and p:BL = 0 and p:L and pp:BL = 0 and pp:L and date >= 20080415
UNDER: The Yankees are 0-14 OU in the first game of a road series as a dog when they are off a road game in which they scored first.
team = Yankees and FGS and A and D and p:A and p:SF>0 and date >= 20140613
UNDER: The Red Sox are 1-16 OU as a dog after they hit more home runs than their opponent.
team = Red Sox and D and p:HR > po:HR and date >= 20160417
UNDER: Rays/Orioles 42-20 +27.9% ROI)
H and STDSERA >= 6.7 and conference = AL and A(o:SSO@o:starter and o:season) >= 5 and conference = o:conference and rest = 0 and SG = 1
UNDER: Pirates/Giants (40-23 +21.2% ROI)
H and line > -150 and line < 103 and p:W and season = 2017 and total in [8 , 10.5 , 11.5]
OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 128-88-9 OU +13.0% ROI this season.
(Mariners, Braves, Phillies, Rangers)
A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017
OVER: Teams on at least 3 str8 Overs (143-103-17 +10.7% ROI)
(None Today)
date>=20170420 and p:O and p2:O and p3:O
________________
SU
Astros
Rays
White Sox
Cubs
Brewers
Mariners
OU
Nationals/Cardinals Under
Marlins/Brewers Under
Yankees/Astros Under
Red Sox/Blue Jays Under
Rays/Orioles Under
Giants/Pirates Under
Mariners/Angels Over
Braves/Athletics Over
Phillies/Mets Over
Rangers/White Sox Over
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If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best under dog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...lb-2017-a.htmlComment -
Friday Plays 6/30
»-Indians -101
»-Royals -114
»-Cardinals -121
»-Rays -125
»-Mariners -101 (Action)
»-White Sox +112
»-Braves/Athletics Over 8.5 -103
»-Mariners/Angels Over 9 -103
»-Indians/Tigers Under 10 -103
___________________________Comment -
I like the price for the Indians and doesn't appear the public are that eager to jump on them cuz of Tomlin and the Tigers on a semi win streak, both Tomlin has pitched better on the road and seems to do decent vs the Tigers and the Indians should have a little revenge on their mind if that's even a thing in baseball, for losing the series last time in Detroit.
The Royals have some success against Santana in the past as have the Twins vs Vargas but Vargas has been red hot, especially at Home and the Twins haven't hit lefties too good this season. I still think Santana is in for a bigger regression than Vargas and for the Twins this will be their third road series in a row now.
The Cardinals have caught fire the last few games and Mike Leake already beat Scherzer 6-1, he should have a much easier time with Roark who has been struggling lately.
I've played Faria every start he has made so far and not going to stop now, he pitched good last time out vs the Orioles but then the bullpen gave up like 5 runs. And Tillman has been pretty awful and I'm not sure it's just a slump. The Rays have struggled in Baltimore but now is the time to change it around. I would of liked to waited for the FF play but got impatient. And there is a nice SDQL trend that says to fade the Orioles tonight.
I'm not sure if Gaviglio or Miranda is starting for the Mariners, but Bridwell isn't as good as his ERA shows. Gaviglio was listed when I made the play but some places are showing Miranda, so I played the Action, figuring the price might go up if it is Miranda. Plus there is a nice SDQL trend that applies to the Mariners tonight.
I don't like playing on the White Sox, they scared me off playing them last night when I liked them, but I'll chance it tonight. They have the better starting pitcher, bullpen, and are at home, while the Rangers are on a long road trip and have to get settled in another hotel. If White Sox can hit the ball, they have a great chance at winning.
Athletics Over is based on model projection and SDQL.
Mariners and Indians total plays are based on both model projections and system plays.
________________________________________ ___
Waiting to see what the line/price/public does on 3 total plays, Cubs, Rays, Rangers. On the fence on 3 model over projections for the Phillies, Dodgers, Twins games, but nothing too serious.Comment -
Just typing down a few notes as I look them up real quick. Considering the Overs in all 3 of these games.
Degrom 8-0 in team starts and 6-2 RL vs the Phillies, but current Philly batters only have 60 AB's against him, but I think they are only batting something like .150 vs him.
Alex Wood won his last 8 team starts, 7 of them by 2 or more, 0-2 vs Padres last season, but Padres aren't the same vs lefties this year so far.
Clayton Richard is 12-7 in team starts vs the Dodgers, 3-1 his last 4 vs them, with the loss coming earlier this year vs Kershaw. He is 7-3 vs Dodgers at Home and the Over is 7-2 in those games. He's won 3 of his last 4 at home overall.
Ervin Santana lost his last 4 team starts in Kansas City, with all 4 games going Under, and 3 out of the 4 were one run losses. He's just 1-9 his Last 10 team starts overall vs the Royals though.
Jason Vargas has won his last 6 team starts overall and 13 out of his last 15 home team starts. The Under is 10-2 in his last 12 Home starts. He has won his last 3 team starts and 6 out of his last 7 vs the Twins, and his last 4 at Home vs the Twins.Comment -
I can't believe that the price went up on the total for the Mets and Royals, I was waiting thinking they would go down. It makes me want to play them even more but I don't want to pay the juice or go to Over 9. Maybe it will go down before it starts when the public gets home and starts betting their Friday paycheck.
I haven't noticed any suspect lines for sides today, but these two seem highly suspect and wouldn't surprise me if they ping for Mr.Lock.
It looks like I got good price on all the side plays and bad prices on all the total plays.Comment
