DET/LAA - no play. Total stayed at 8.5.
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Comment -
I'm gonna be conflicted 2marro in stl. I was really hoping I wouldn't see what I expected w arrietta and waino's era's but of course I did (add up to way over total), I have no doubt this 8.5 is gonna drop to 8 (just FYI for anyone wanting to follow system but catch better number).
Thing is I really like the over! I havnt checked ump as of yet and maybe that could influence my decision. Waino did appear to actually change his approach last outting which something he gonna have to come to grips with not having the same stuff he once possessed. I just don't think he can finesse his way thru this lineup 3x's . Arrietta has been great vs cards so there certainly things that point to under here.
Maybe just call this one gut/instinct/ whatever but I have a feeling this game has some back and forth scoring and both pitchers gonna have to battle as we see a bunch of base runners. Assuming pitch counts for both gonna be a issue by 5th. Gonna be warm with nice breeze blowing out so potential for some crooked numbers for sure.
Don't mind me just rambling little bit. Moral of story is pretty sure this game will fall in parameters but 8.5 available at moment even tho I don't like it. LolComment -
As predicted the scrubbies/cards total already down to 8 hence qualifying.. obviously I'm not playing this under (or I would have done so at 8.5), torn on whether I play the over or just leave it alone? Maybe I will let price decide, if I can take the over at -105 or better may pull trigger if not just leave alone..
Sorry for clogging thread with my conversation w myself! I have my own thread for that. Lol..Comment -
Plays for 5/14
Making these early today. Got tons going on today.
Unfiltered System
DET/LAA: 8.0U +100
CIN/SF: 8.0U -112
Not playing CHC/STL. Total is bouncing between 8.0 and 8.5. Latest trend is 8.5.
Thanks for the feedback 2daBank!Comment -
Results from 5/14/2017
Unfiltered System
DET/LAA: 8.0U +100 WIN (+1.0u)
CIN/SF: 8.0U -112LOSS (-1.12u)
Year-To-Date
Unfiltered System (5% ROI)
April SDQL Record: 22-8-0 (SDQL Profit = +13.05 units)
May Actual Plays: 10-8-4 (+1.23u)
Filtered System (13% ROI)
May Actual Plays: 2-2-0 (-0.25u)
Comment -
Potential Plays for 5/15
Unfiltered
OAK/SEA: 8.0U
Needs to stay at 8.0, but total is trending 8.5.
Filtered
CWS/LAA: 8.0U
Needs 8.0. Currently 8.5, but total is trending 8.0.
Both games are late, so waiting this out.Comment -
No plays for 5/15.
OAK/SEA is 50-50 split between 8.0 and 8.5.
CWS/LAA is staying 8.5.Comment -
Plays for 5/16
Filtered System
MIL/SD: 8.0U -110
Nelson's ERA is 3.99, so this is a borderline play at 8.0, but total is trending heavily towards 7.5.Comment -
Possible Play for 5/17
Filtered System
CWS/LAA: 7.5U
Total needs to hold 7.5 or less. Gonzalez ERA of 3.83 can't have total of 8.0, and trend is in that direction. Late game, so waiting it out.Comment -
Watching waino all year I would have never guessed he would shut scrubbies out for 7 innings! Cards got bout what I expected off arrietta, scrubbies offense was bad.. I will say waino's last few starts he seems to have finally come to terms with fact his arm just isn't what it was and he seems to be making adjustments to his approach.,Comment -
Results from 5/16/2017
Filtered and Unfiltered System
MIL/SD: 8.0U -110 PUSH
Year-To-Date
Unfiltered System (5% ROI)
April SDQL Record: 22-8-0 (SDQL Profit = +13.05 units)
May Actual Plays: 10-8-5 (+1.23u)
Filtered System (13% ROI)
May Actual Plays: 2-2-1 (-0.25u)Comment -
No kidding! Definitely felt like a win. Glad I grabbed the early 8.0U. Wish the 7.5U closing total would have held up.
Just posted the record for unfiltered and filtered system. May is pretty much break even. Best results for this system typically come in June and July when the ERA's get more locked in. I was hoping the April hot streak would continue, but I'm happy it hasn't gone into full regression and produced big losses.Comment -
Thanks, I actually just somehow overlooked your last updated post before that, saw it after I asked..
Honestly my key to MLB success is typically hang around .500 until hot streaks come, then try to hang around that .500 and wait for next spurt. That and of course majority of my plays being plus money dogs and totals I do my best not to pay juice on (not always the case but get my fair share of plus money on those as well)...
I have no doubt this thread gonna be profitable all season. Concept is rock solid. Anyone looking for ppl to follow should be doing so right here..Comment -
I find that a lot of my SDQL angles that I use that if they work in April, they tend to work in June, but not in May. Things tend to alternate months, so there's often a bounce back or regression with the change of month.
For example, away divisional dogs historically do great in April and June and terrible in May.
Looks like things went excellent for you in April, so I'd be hopeful for you in June.Comment -
Play for 5/18
Unfiltered System
MIA/LAD: 8.0U -105Comment -
Locked in on the MIA/LAD 8.0U play earlier today. Looks like the total jumped to 8.5 on me. Oh well. Total 8.5 still has a positive ROI for home favorites, so I guess we'll test that out tonight. Good luck!Comment -
Im selectively playing these, or more accurately to say I am using this as a start point for a potential under play..
I had to pass on this one, I don't mind the pitchers and think both are more than capable of improvement over their seasons era thus far.
My problem was simply not ideal offenses for either to start the turn around against. Marlins do their best work vs lefties while dodgers have similarly strong team ops against righties. Not real surprising the total went up here with that plus unlike quite a few of these neither pitchers peripherals so much if any better than their era's which rather unusual for these plays..
hopefully you draw a ump with a generous strike zone as both pitchers main issue been walks..
GLComment -
Two definite plays on the filtered and unfiltered systems for 5/19.
LAA/NYM: 7.5U
CWS/SEA: 7.5U
These are plays at 7.5 or 8.0. Waiting to see if I can snag an 8.0. Both are currently at 7.5 +105. Might just take the positive odds.Comment -
Three borderline plays for 5/19.
Probably won't be plays, but good for research.
Unfiltered
KC/MIN: 7.5U
Need total of 7.5 due to Santiago's 3.80 ERA. Currently 8.0, but trending 8.5.
Filtered/Unfiltered
CLE/HOU: 7.5U or 8.0U
Mathematically, need 7.5 total due to Morton's 3.97 ERA, but 8.0 is so close to meeting parameters. Total currently at 8.5, but worth considering if it hits 8.0.
ARI/SD: 7.5U or 8.0U
Again, need 7.5 total due to Walker's 3.91 ERA, but 8.0 is so close. Total currently at 8.5, but again, worth considering if it hits 8.0.Comment -
Plays for 5/19
Filtered and Unfiltered Systems
LAA/NYM: 7.5U +105
CWS/SEA: 7.5U +107Comment -
Adding CLE/HOU 8.0U +100 for the unfiltered system. Got the even odds and Morton's 3.97 ERA is so close to 4.00. Worth a shot.
Not a play on the filtered system because Bauer's ERA is over 5.25. I didn't notice that earlier.Comment -
Hey Jupiter - yeah I've noticed that pattern too. When I checked the variance on this one over the past years, I noticed that the cold streaks did not go deep in the negative, and the hot streaks were extremely positive. Here's hoping May is just flat and June performs like April!Comment -
Results from 5/18/2017
Unfiltered System
MIA/LAD: 8.0U -105 LOSS (-1.05u)
Year-To-Date
Unfiltered System (5% ROI)
April SDQL Record: 22-8-0 (SDQL Profit = +13.05 units)
May Actual Plays: 10-9-5 (+0.18u)
Filtered System (13% ROI)
May Actual Plays: 2-2-1 (-0.25u)Comment -
Results from 5/19/2017
Filtered/Unfiltered System
LAA/NYM: 7.5U +105 WIN (+1.05u)
CWS/SEA: 7.5U +107WIN (+1.07u)
Unfiltered System Only
CLE/HOU 8.0U +100 PUSH
Year-To-Date
Unfiltered System (5% ROI)
April SDQL Record: 22-8-0 (SDQL Profit = +13.05 units)
May Actual Plays: 12-9-6 (+2.30u)
Filtered System (13% ROI)
May Actual Plays: 4-2-1 (+1.87u)
Comment -
Believe I saw a few 8.5's that would qualify at 8 but forget which games, lol. At least 1 looked to be headed that direction as well.Comment -
Plays for 5/20
Need to make some early decisions today. I won't be around a computer after this, so I'm only going with the games that are currently meeting the parameters.
Filtered and Unfiltered Systems
ARI/SD: 7.5U -109
Also a play at 7.0 or 8.0 if the line moves.
Unfiltered System Only
SF/STL: 7.5U -105
Total must be 7.5 or less due to Martinez ERA of 3.88. This is very close to a Filtered System play.
Other Possibilities
I'm not playing these because I won't be able to watch, but they could fall into place.
Unfiltered System Only
LAA/NYM: 7.5U
Total is currently 8.0. Needs 7.5 or less due to Wheeler ERA of 3.76. Total is currently trending towards 7.5.
CWS/SEA: 8.0U
Total is currently 8.5, but trending towards 8.0. Any total 8.0 or less is a play.
BOS/OAK: 8.0U
Total is currently 8.5, but trending towards 9.0, so probably unlikely.Comment -
Results from 5/20/2017
Filtered/Unfiltered System
ARI/SD: 7.5U -109 LOSS (-1.09u)
Unfiltered System Only
SF/STL: 7.5U -105 WIN (+1.0u)
Year-To-Date
Unfiltered System (5% ROI)
April SDQL Record: 22-8-0 (SDQL Profit = +13.05 units)
May Actual Plays: 13-10-6 (+2.21u)
Filtered System (13% ROI)
May Actual Plays: 4-3-1 (+0.78u)Comment -
Plays for 5/21
Unfiltered System Only
CLE/HOU: 8.0U +100
Close But Not Quite
PHI/PIT: Total holding 8.5. Needs 8.0 or less.
LAA/NYM: Total split between 8.0 and 8.5. Needs consensus 8.0 or less.
NYY/TB: Total holding 8.0. Needs 7.5 or less based on Archer ERA of 3.70.Comment -
Results from 5/21/2017
Unfiltered System Only
CLE/HOU: 8.0U +100 LOSS (-1.0u)
Year-To-Date
Unfiltered System (5% ROI)
April SDQL Record: 22-8-0 (SDQL Profit = +13.05 units)
May Actual Plays: 13-11-6 (+1.21u)
Filtered System (13% ROI)
May Actual Plays: 4-3-1 (+0.78u)Comment
