MLB UNDER System - Solid SDQL Results

[nfl_huskers]

Great day. 3-1. SDQL strategies are killing it right now!

Thought we had the sweep for a bit, but I'll definitely take 3-1 after that CLE/DET close call.

[nfl_huskers]

Aaaaand you hit everything again. What I do know is that I make my fade O/U plays first. Then I check if you have any plays that I dont already have. THen I play them. THen I check if sportsbetter21 has more games that I dont already have and I bet them. Went 5-0 tailing this way yesterday. One of my fades failed and the other one is still pending. Im probably just getting lucky with tailing the right people.

To make it short... please post these plays every day!

Will do. At 26-9 on the 5% system, we should revisit that conversation we had about variance and stepping away at the high point.

[nfl_huskers]

Oops, I thought the Colorado-game was over when I looked at it. But it wasnt, ended with 8 runs. Anyways, 3-1 for your plays.

Had my broom ready, but just missed the sweep! Still impressive.

[Scrivero]

Will do. At 26-9 on the 5% system, we should revisit that conversation we had about variance and stepping away at the high point.

Most certainly a good example for stepping away at high point is exactly that type of scenario. Aint easy though, it could just last all season long, even though it shouldnt. I know Im tailing

[Frosty]

Skers, you from NE?

[barryt]

I'm not 100% sure but I think green is a pitcher who qualified as having a quality start and red is bad start. Not 100% sure though

By inspection, I figured out that the colour code indicates th pitcher of record
i.e Green is the winning pitcher, Red is the loser, black is no decision for the starters

[nfl_huskers]

Playing PHI/CHC 6.5U +112 (5Dimes) on both systems.

Playing CWS/KC 7.5U -102 (5Dimes) on unfiltered system only.

Still waiting on LAA/SEA.

[nfl_huskers]

Trying to get a better idea about how to handle O/U line fluctuations with these systems. For example, do you want 6.5U or 7.0U when the line is moving between an UNDER at 6.5 with positive odds and an UNDER at 7.0 with negative odds.

So, I checked ROI since 2007 for each total based on whether the odds were Favorite or Dog.

Using today's PHI/CHC game as an example. The line was fluctuating from 7 (-120) to 6.5 (+112). For the unfiltered system, the play with the better ROI is the 7 (-120) with 9.7% ROI compared to the play with 6.5 (+112) with 2.4% ROI. For the filtered system, the play with the better ROI is the 6.5 (+112) with 38.8% ROI compared to the play with 7 (-120) with 10.4% ROI.

The current 6.5 (+112) odds for PHI/CHC looks great for the Filtered System.

The CWS/KC game looks to be settling in at 7.5 (+102) which is some concern. We'll see.

Half the books have the LAA/SEA game at 8.5. Others have it at 8.0 (+102). It either won't meet the Total parameter of the systems or it will land on a line with negative historical ROI. Still waiting.

Anyway, just something to consider when waiting for the best line. Again, these ROI's are based on closing lines from SDQL.



Unfiltered System - ROI since 2007
Total Favorite Dog
6.5 15.0% 2.4%
7.0 9.7% 11.4%
7.5 9.5% -6.0%
8.0 7.0% -5.1%

All 9.0% 1.0%



Filtered System - ROI since 2007

Total Favorite Dog
6.5 -14.9% 38.8%
7.0 10.4% 16.2%
7.5 25.2% -2.7%
8.0 10.8% -16.1%

All 15.3% 4.0%

[nfl_huskers]

Skers, you from NE?

Hey Frosty,

Yeah, spent childhood in the Beatrice, NE area. Raised on Husker football. You from there?

[nfl_huskers]

I need to get caught up on my tracking. Too busy.

Monday, May 1st

Unfiltered System (5% ROI)
TB @ MIA: 8.0U -115 (5Dimes) WIN (+1.0u)


Tuesday, May 2nd

Filtered System (13%ROI)
MIL @ STL: 7.5U -105 (5Dimes), -110 (SDQL) WIN (+1.0u)

COL @ SD: 7.5U -115 (5Dimes), -125 (SDQL) LOSS (-1.25u)

CLE @ DET: 8.0U -115 (5Dimes), -110 (SDQL) WIN (+1.0u)


Unfiltered System (5% ROI)
Same as above, but add ...

TB @ MIA: 8.0U -105 (5Dimes), -110 (SDQL) WIN (+1.0u)




YTD

Unfiltered System (5% ROI)

April SDQL Record: 22-8-0 (SDQL Profit = +13.05 units)

May Actual Plays: 4-1-0 (+2.75u)




Filtered System (13% ROI)

May Actual Plays: 2-1-0 (+0.75u)

[nfl_huskers]

Looks like the books are settling on LAA/SEA 8.0U +105. Because it meets the parameters of the unfiltered system, going to play it.

[nfl_huskers]

No plays today.

[Frosty]

Hey Frosty,

Yeah, spent childhood in the Beatrice, NE area. Raised on Husker football. You from there?

Ya, I grew up west of Elkhorn! GBR!

[Scrivero]

The tracking looks nice and simple, thanks!

[nfl_huskers]

Results from 5/3/2017

PHI/CHC 6.5U +112 LOSS (-1.0u) both

CWS/KC 7.5U -102 WIN (+1.0u) unfiltered

LAA/SEA 8.0U +105 LOSS (-1.0u) unfiltered





Unfiltered System (5% ROI)
April SDQL Record: 22-8-0 (SDQL Profit = +13.05 units)
May Actual Plays: 5-3-0 (+1.75u)


Filtered System (13% ROI)

May Actual Plays: 2-2-0 (-0.25u)

[nfl_huskers]

One potential play showing up for tomorrow (5/5) ...

LAD at SD (unfiltered system -5ROI)

[nfl_huskers]

Plays for 5/5

Unfiltered System:

CLE/KC: 8.0U -110 (5Dimes)
LAD/SD: 7.5U -115 (5Dimes)

[FUqer]

Nice job! There are some nice systems floating around right now.

I did a little simple tinkering to your parameters and although it doesn't come up as much, it might be worth doubling a bet amount. I'm not sure why it's seems to be a factor but when the Road team starts a Lefty and the Home team starts a Righty, the ROI increases to +24.7%. It was 6-6 last season, but 11-1-2 in 2015, and 15-5 in 2014. I think if you cross check the ball parks stats for over/unders could increase the chances also.

H and REG and 6.5<=total<=8 and total/2<=STDSERA<=5.25 and total/2<=o:STDSERA<=5.25 and 1.25<=STDSWHIP<=1.55 and 1.25<=o:STDSWHIP<=1.55 and season>=2007 and STR and o:STL

33-64-6 (-0.71, 34.0%)

avg total: 7.5

over / under: -$3,758 / +$2,797

ROI: -33.1% / +24.7%

[Scrivero]

Angels/Astros and Cubs/Yankees tonight for the unfiltered system?

[Tomatero]

Nice job! There are some nice systems floating around right now.

I did a little simple tinkering to your parameters and although it doesn't come up as much, it might be worth doubling a bet amount. I'm not sure why it's seems to be a factor but when the Road team starts a Lefty and the Home team starts a Righty, the ROI increases to +24.7%. It was 6-6 last season, but 11-1-2 in 2015, and 15-5 in 2014. I think if you cross check the ball parks stats for over/unders could increase the chances also.

H and REG and 6.5<=total<=8 and total/2<=STDSERA<=5.25 and total/2<=o:STDSERA<=5.25 and 1.25<=STDSWHIP<=1.55 and 1.25<=o:STDSWHIP<=1.55 and season>=2007 and STR and o:STL

33-64-6 (-0.71, 34.0%)

avg total: 7.5

over / under: -$3,758 / +$2,797

ROI: -33.1% / +24.7%

Nice find, thats could be 2 units plays.

[nfl_huskers]

Plays for 5/6
I'm still watching the odds to get the best entry point, but these games will be plays.


Unfiltered System
HOU/LAA currently 7.5U -120

NYY/CHC currently 7.5U -110

I'm considering two units on the NYY/CHC game. The unfiltered system generates an ROI around 5%, but if you filter on the home favorites (Cubs are -129), the ROI goes up to around 9%.

Reasoning: The favorite will most likely win, and in most of those games, they will not bat in the bottom of the ninth, so one less half inning of possible scoring helps the under.

[nfl_huskers]

Nice job! There are some nice systems floating around right now.

I did a little simple tinkering to your parameters and although it doesn't come up as much, it might be worth doubling a bet amount. I'm not sure why it's seems to be a factor but when the Road team starts a Lefty and the Home team starts a Righty, the ROI increases to +24.7%. It was 6-6 last season, but 11-1-2 in 2015, and 15-5 in 2014. I think if you cross check the ball parks stats for over/unders could increase the chances also.

H and REG and 6.5<=total<=8 and total/2<=STDSERA<=5.25 and total/2<=o:STDSERA<=5.25 and 1.25<=STDSWHIP<=1.55 and 1.25<=o:STDSWHIP<=1.55 and season>=2007 and STR and o:STL

33-64-6 (-0.71, 34.0%)

avg total: 7.5

over / under: -$3,758 / +$2,797

ROI: -33.1% / +24.7%

Nice filtering. Yep, this system definitely has other possibilities for higher ROI.

If you take the base system (no ERA cap or WHIP filtering), and filter on Home Favorites, the ROI jumps from around 5% to almost 9%. Thinking about increasing the bet on those plays.

[nfl_huskers]

Results from 5/5/2017

CLE/KC: 8.0U -110 (5Dimes) WIN (+1.0u)
LAD/SD: 7.5U -115 (5Dimes) LOSS (-1.15u)



Year-To-Date

Unfiltered System (5% ROI)
April SDQL Record: 22-8-0 (SDQL Profit = +13.05 units)
May Actual Plays: 6-4-0 (+1.60u)


Filtered System (13% ROI)
May Actual Plays: 2-2-0 (-0.25u)

[nfl_huskers]

Plays for 5/6

Unfiltered System
HOU/LAA currently 7.5U -120
NYY/CHC currently 7.5U -110

Sticking with my standard flat bet 1 unit for the rest of May, but if the home favorites show higher ROI the rest of this month, I'll switch to 2 units on those plays starting in June.

[Tomatero]

Taling you, good luck amigo 🍀

[tecmoslayer]

Thanks for the NYY/CHC loser...only play I missed today is the only play I took from SBR. That should tell me something.

[Rusty Bucket$]

Looks like SBR sent in somebody to stir the pot lol. It's amazing how people get kicked off once they start winning or talking about systems that actually produce results. Keep doing your thing Husker. Good job

[nfl_huskers]

Looks like SBR sent in somebody to stir the pot lol. It's amazing how people get kicked off once they start winning or talking about systems that actually produce results. Keep doing your thing Husker. Good job

Thanks. Will do. Definitely some good people on here with great systems.

[nfl_huskers]

Taling you, good luck amigo 

NYY/CHC was gone from the start. I guess we should have held out for the 17.5U play. Would have been close.

[2daBank]

Thanks for the NYY/CHC loser...only play I missed today is the only play I took from SBR. That should tell me something.

Unless it tells you to go play in traffic we really don't give a shit..

We didn't see where you had posted all your winners? Be real even if you actually won today you have the sound of a lifetime loser that gets crushed and then blames other ppl.

[2daBank]

NYY/CHC was gone from the start. I guess we should have held out for the 17.5U play. Would have been close.

You know ya doing something right when random losers blame you for a loss and come bashing.. lol.. keep up the good work man

[nfl_huskers]

Results for 5/6/2017

HOU/LAA 7.5U -120 WIN (+1.0u)
NYY/CHC 7.5U -110 LOSS (-1.10u)



Year-To-Date

Unfiltered System (5% ROI)

April SDQL Record: 22-8-0 (SDQL Profit = +13.05 units)
May Actual Plays: 7-5-0 (+1.50u)


Filtered System (13% ROI)
May Actual Plays: 2-2-0 (-0.25u)

[nfl_huskers]

You know ya doing something right when random losers blame you for a loss and come bashing.. lol.. keep up the good work man

Thanks, man. Been following your thread. Looks like you've got a great system ... up over 16 units already. Nice work!

[Tomatero]

Thanks for the NYY/CHC loser...only play I missed today is the only play I took from SBR. That should tell me something.

Easy buddy, play your own picks.

[nfl_huskers]

Possible UNDER Plays for 5/7/2017


Filtered and Unfiltered

SF/CIN: Current total is 8.5 across all books. Needs to drop to 8.0 to be a play.


Unfiltered Only

HOU/LAA: Current total is 8.5 across all books. Needs to drop to 8.0 to be a play.
MIL/PIT: Current total is 50/50 split between 8.0 and 8.5. Needs 8.0 to be a play.


Going to be away from computer this morning, so won't be able to update before game time. If someone sees these fall into place,feel free to update here.