MLB UNDER System - Solid SDQL Results

nfl_huskers · 05-22-17, 12:27 PM

Possible Play for 5/22

Only one potential play today ...

Unfiltered System Only
PHI/COL: 8.0U
ERA's and WHIP's are very close to the higher ROI Filtered System values, but total is trending 8.5. Needs 8.0 or less.

As I've mentioned before, 8.5U has historically been profitable for home favorites using these systems, and PHI is the home favorite. I'm sticking with the 6.5 to 8.0 totals originally defined for the systems in this thread, but this is shaping up to be a good UNDER side bet if the total stays at 8.5.

nfl_huskers · 05-22-17, 05:53 PM

No Plays for 5/22

PHI/COL total stayed at 8.5.

nfl_huskers · 05-23-17, 12:55 PM

Plays for 5/23

Filtered and Unfiltered System
SF@CHC: 7.0U +103
Lester's ERA of 3.57 requires total of 7.0 or less. Grabbing positive odds here and hoping 7.0 holds.

Unfiltered System
SD@NYM: 8.0U +100
All totals 6.5 to 8.0 are good here. Not worried about total moving to 8.5 with Mets as home favorite.
This is very close to a filtered play. Harvey's 5.56 ERA is just a bit too high for the 5.25 filter.

nfl_huskers · 05-23-17, 09:45 PM

Results from 5/23/2017

Filtered and Unfiltered System
SF@CHC: 7.0U +103WIN (+1.03u)

Unfiltered System Only
SD@NYM: 8.0U +100LOSS (-1.0u)

Year-To-Date
Unfiltered System
April SDQL Record: 22-8-0 (SDQL Profit = +13.05 units)
May Actual Plays: 14-12-6 (+1.24u)

Filtered System
May Actual Plays: 5-3-1 (+1.81u)

nfl_huskers · 05-24-17, 11:35 AM

5/24 - nothing close to meeting parameters at this point. SF/CHC is a play if total drops from 7.0 to 6.5 due to Hendricks' 3.35 ERA.

nfl_huskers · 05-26-17, 12:49 PM

Play for 5/26

Unfiltered and Filtered Systems

ATL/SF: 8.0U -115
Any total 6.5 to 8.0 is valid.

nfl_huskers · 05-27-17, 02:10 PM

Results from 5/26/2017

Filtered and Unfiltered System
ATL/SF: 8.0U -115 WIN (+1.0u)

Year-To-Date
Unfiltered System
April SDQL Record: 22-8-0 (SDQL Profit = +13.05 units)
May Actual Plays: 15-12-6 (+2.24u)

Filtered System
May Actual Plays: 6-3-1 (+2.81u)

nfl_huskers · 05-27-17, 02:16 PM

Plays for 5/27

Unfiltered System Only

CHC @ LAD: 7.5U -105
Total 7.5 or lower is valid due to McCarthy's 3.76 ERA.

ATL @ SF: 7.5U -110
Total 7.5 or lower is valid due to Foltynewicz's 3.86 ERA.

Tony Spilotro · 05-29-17, 01:50 PM

Originally posted by nfl_huskers

Plays for 5/27
Unfiltered System Only

CHC @ LAD: 7.5U -105
Total 7.5 or lower is valid due to McCarthy's 3.76 ERA.

ATL @ SF: 7.5U -110
Total 7.5 or lower is valid due to Foltynewicz's 3.86 ERA.

This thread is the reason I created a profile. Are there any plays today ? I saw CHI/SD went up to 8.5 so therefore no play correct?

feedmecappers · 05-29-17, 01:52 PM

Keeping an eye on LAA vs. ATL tonight as a filtered play

nfl_huskers · 05-29-17, 05:57 PM

Play for 5/29

Filtered and Unfiltered System

ATL@LAA: 8.0U -115

ATL: Teheran has 4.88 ERA and 1.46 WHIP
LAA: Nolasco has 4.37 ERA and 1.30 WHIP

Getting caught up after Memorial Day holiday weekend activities. Missed out on some better lines earlier in the day.

nfl_huskers · 05-29-17, 06:04 PM

Getting caught up on my results. Busy weekend.

Results from 5/27/2017

Unfiltered System Only
CHC @ LAD: 7.5U -105 WIN (+1.0u)
ATL @ SF: 7.5U -110 LOSS (-1.10u)

Year-To-Date

Unfiltered System
April SDQL Record: 22-8-0 (SDQL Profit = +13.05 units)
May Actual Plays: 16-13-6 (+2.14u)

Filtered System
May Actual Plays: 6-3-1 (+2.81u)

nfl_huskers · 05-29-17, 06:15 PM

I was away from my computer most of the weekend. Just went back to check yesterday's games to see if I missed any plays. Looks like SF/ATL and WAS/SD would have been 8.0U plays on the unfiltered system. That SF/ATL game just missed being a filtered play.

Both plays would have been a PUSH, so no real impact to the YTD record.

Tony Spilotro · 05-29-17, 07:40 PM

Maybe this is a stupid question but is there a big difference in ROI when the public bets the total up from 7.5 to 8.5 like CHI/SD today? To me my logic tells me it's just better value @ 8.5 ?

nfl_huskers · 05-29-17, 09:05 PM

Originally posted by Tony Spilotro

Maybe this is a stupid question but is there a big difference in ROI when the public bets the total up from 7.5 to 8.5 like CHI/SD today? To me my logic tells me it's just better value @ 8.5 ?

The original system/query was built from closing lines, and a close at 8.5 showed a negative ROI with the query. After doing additional filtering as the season progressed, I found that 8.5 was profitable if the home team was the favorite. They are more likely to win the game, and potentially won't have to bat in the bottom of the ninth, which favors the Under.

I will sometimes play an 8.0U that is trending to 8.5U, or vice versa, but only if the home team is the favorite. The Cubs were a heavy away favorite today. I actually prefer to see the total decreasing into game time.

Lots of room for improvement on the system. Wish I had historical line movement data. I'm researching ways to increase the number of plays while keeping the ROI at over 10%.

Tony Spilotro · 05-29-17, 09:12 PM

Originally posted by nfl_huskers

The original system/query was built from closing lines, and a close at 8.5 showed a negative ROI with the query. After doing additional filtering as the season progressed, I found that 8.5 was profitable if the home team was the favorite. They are more likely to win the game, and potentially won't have to bat in the bottom of the ninth, which favors the Under.
I will sometimes play an 8.0U that is trending to 8.5U, or vice versa, but only if the home team is the favorite. The Cubs were a heavy away favorite today. I actually prefer to see the total decreasing into game time.

Lots of room for improvement on the system. Wish I had historical line movement data. I'm researching ways to increase the number of plays while keeping the ROI at over 10%.

Thank you. You and this thread are both awesome!

nfl_huskers · 05-29-17, 09:40 PM

Thanks, man. If you have any ideas/suggestions, definitely let me know. My goal is to confirm whether the system works outside of the SDQL database odds, and so far, it's performing fairly well. June and July will be the real test. Historical results are best during those two months, so we'll soon find out!

I'm playing it very vanilla this season. Next season I hope to increase betting units based on the projected ROI. Could very easily make unfiltered plays 1-2 units and filtered plays 3-5 units, or use a labby line to increase profits. Just not ready to go there yet.

Good luck!

nfl_huskers · 05-29-17, 09:52 PM

Results from 5/29/2017

Filtered and Unfiltered System
ATL@LAA: 8.0U -115 LOSS (-1.15u)

Year-To-Date

Unfiltered System
April SDQL Record: 22-8-0 (SDQL Profit = +13.05 units)
May Actual Plays: 16-14-6 (+0.99u)

Filtered System
May Actual Plays: 6-4-1 (+1.66u)

nfl_huskers · 05-30-17, 10:28 AM

Not seeing anything close to a play for 5/30. Very low ERA's or high totals today.

nfl_huskers · 05-31-17, 10:17 AM

Watch List for 5/31

Unfiltered System Only

PHI@MIA: 7.5U
Needs total of 7.5 or less due to Straily ERA of 3.83. Currently, split between 8.0 and 7.5. Early game, so will make a call soon.

CHC@SD
Any total 6.5 to 8.0 is valid. Currently at 7.5, but trending 8.0. Another early game, so holding out a bit longer to try for 8.0U.

nfl_huskers · 05-31-17, 11:37 AM

Playing PHI@MIA 7.5U -110 on unfiltered system only.

nfl_huskers · 05-31-17, 11:44 AM

Playing CHC@SD 7.5U +100 on the unfiltered system only. Busy afternoon, so I can't watch longer.

nfl_huskers · 05-31-17, 10:27 PM

Results from 5/31/2017

Unfiltered System Only
PHI@MIA 7.5U -110 LOSS (-1.1u)CHC@SD 7.5U +100 WIN (+1.0u)

Year-To-Date

Unfiltered System
April SDQL Record: 22-8-0 (SDQL Profit = +13.05 units)
May Actual Plays: 17-15-6 (+0.89u)

Filtered System
May Actual Plays: 6-4-1 (+1.66u)

nfl_huskers · 06-01-17, 10:34 AM

Watch List for 6/1

Unfiltered System Only

MIN@LAA
Total must be 6.5 to 8.0. Currently 8.5. Late game, so will monitor.

OAK@CLE
Total must be 6.5 to 8.0. Currently, 8.5. Very early game, so not much time to drop.

nfl_huskers · 06-01-17, 07:07 PM

No plays for 6/1.

I don't see that MIN/LAA total dropping to 8.0.

nfl_huskers · 06-02-17, 11:03 AM

Watch List for 6/2

Filtered and Unfiltered System

COL@SD: 7.5U
Total must be 6.5 to 7.5 due to Marquez ERA of 3.76. Currently holding at 7.5.

nfl_huskers · 06-02-17, 08:11 PM

Play for 6/2

Filtered and Unfiltered System

COL@SD: 7.5U +100

nfl_huskers · 06-02-17, 11:07 PM

Results from 6/2/2017

Filtered and Unfiltered System
COL@SD: 7.5U +100 LOSS (-1.0u)

Year-To-Date

Unfiltered System
April SDQL Record: 22-8-0 (SDQL Profit = +13.05 units)
May Actual Plays: 17-16-6 (-0.11u)

Filtered System
May Actual Plays: 6-5-1 (+0.66u)

nfl_huskers · 06-03-17, 11:10 AM

Play for 6/3

Unfiltered System Only

COL@SD: 8.0U -110

Any total 6.5 to 8.0 is valid.

nfl_huskers · 06-03-17, 08:05 PM

Results from 6/3/2017

Unfiltered System Only
COL@SD: 8.0U -110 LOSS (-1.1u)

Year-To-Date

Unfiltered System
April SDQL Record: 22-8-0 (SDQL Profit = +13.05 units)
May Actual Plays: 17-17-6 (-1.21u)

Filtered System
May Actual Plays: 6-5-1 (+0.66u)

RisingDough · 06-23-17, 02:15 PM

Huskers,

Where did you go?